Smash is a different series. Just because some other series does that, doesn't mean Smash has to do that.
But that doesn't mean the policy of remixing a roster isn't unusual for the genre, nor is it necessary something that should be avoided. I don't think it's fair to expect the same roster to return over and over again with the only changes simply expanding it. New games do not make the old games obsolete, and I don't think it's right to view Smash as singular title routinely evolving and expanding. Not only is that boring, but it's an unfair pressure to place on the developers, when the reality is they're not going to be able to continue expanding the roster
forever without hitting absurd development costs.
It's not even Smash in question here, it's more or less every single franchise that have ever existed. Items are removed and replaced in The Legend of Zelda. The pool of power-ups in Super Mario Bros. constantly changers. Every fighting game series has a mixed roster from title to title. And even though working with established characters from Smash should be
less work than a new character, it's still work. Work that may, should the developers feel it, be better spent on establishing someone new.
End of the day, at least for me, part of the excitement of a Smash game is not playing
that character I loved a game or two ago all over again as I have done so before. It's trying new characters and seeing what they'll bring to the formula. Captain Falcon is one of my favourite characters in the roster, but playing as him in Brawl still evoked similar feelings to playing as him in Melee and 64 (timings, speed, and damage aside). Meanwhile playing as Snake, Metal Knight, Pokemon Trainer, and Pit was a totally refreshing experience. Same goes for playing Peach, Bowser, Zelda/Sheik, and Mewtwo in Melee. And this is what I'm excited about for Wii Fit Trainer and Villager.
Maybe Sakurai and co have a different policy, but I don't know. Brawl cut Roy, Pichu, Mewtwo, and Dr. Mario. Granted, Dr Mario and Pichu were clones, Roy to a smaller degree, and Mewtwo the only totally unique moveset. But still, it would not surprise me to see a small portion of the roster cut for Smash 4, or at the very least massive redesigns made to some clones. Do we really need Fox, Falco, and Wolf to return at the expense of a new character? I
love playing as Falco, but I've played him for three games, and if cutting Falco and Wolf to keep Fox as the only one with that moveset rewards with two totally new characters, I'd take it.
Toon Link and Luigi kind of throw a spanner in the "cut clones" theory. Luigi less so.
You're right about production values being increased, but I have a good feeling that we will go beyond 40 characters ceiling. At least, they are more likely to stopping at 45-ish. Also you shouldn't forget the fact that they are working with Namco-Bandai on Smash 4 so it would help with their development and production. Only problem with our end is that we don't know how big their teams are. I really hope that their team would be big enough to make the production more effective so their progress would be more smoother. Also I hate to sound like a selfish prick but I'm expecting to see the number between 45 to 47 but I would be very happy if they manage to reach at 50-ish numbers.
That's kind of what I mean. We don't know the team size, we don't know their roster plans, and we don't know the budget. It's worth keeping in mind they're making
two games. Roster stays the same, but stage selection does not.
If my memory serves right, they're using Brawl's engine (or implied it so), so bringing back the veterans will probably be an easier job (don't know by how much) this time. It also helps with the lack of SSE (by the looks of it, it looked a lot of time and resource), so they might be able to have more time to add more characters.
But of course then there's the HD factor, which Nintendo isn't experienced enough with. I imagined hiring Namco's tekken team helps since they're very experienced with HD game development. (I think Sakurai mentioned they hired them to make development of the game faster and easier? If anyone have the quotes, I would greatly appreciate it.)
But you may be right since we don't know what they're adding, and it could potentially take up a lot of dev time like SSE.
So yeah, I guess at this point it's hard to tell what the roster is going to end up like. I can see it being near Brawl's number, but at the same time I can see them stopping at 45 slots.
The HD dev cost seems like one of those things that would hurt stages more than characters, to me anyway. I'm of the opinion that as good as Smash 4's characters look, they don't look a million light years away from Brawl's, which already looked fucking amazing. Indeed going 1080p @ 60fps holds back just how much work you need to put into individual assets. Stages, too. Like Melee and Brawl, I expect Smash 4 to make game-specific themed stages from previous generations to use assets almost identical
to that game, as a homage.