SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Even with Wii U being a miss, their first party franchises still sold millions.
Nintendo will never be in trouble.
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Switch 2 could fail you know
- Thread starter SimTourist
- Start date
Even with Wii U being a miss, their first party franchises still sold millions.
Nintendo will never be in trouble.
dragonyeuw
Member
$70 on Switch is gonna hurt with how they keep their games at MSRP( with the odd sale). That means Switch 2 games 'on sale' are going to be $50 if they follow the industry pricing model ( Nintendo likes to go their own way, but you can bet that's one trend they'll be sure to follow).
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Parazels
Member
Add cheap LCD screen and short battery life.
dragonyeuw
Member
Yeah but the price was probably a bigger issue, hence the price drop from $249 to $169 within the first 6 months. If they launched at $169 they very likely sell alot more units even with the lackluster launch lineup. Stuff like 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 came out in holiday 2011 but they didn't bother waiting to see if those titles would bolster sales of the system at $249. I also think by this point the Wii was losing steam which might have also led to the quick price-drop.
I remember, and I don't recall the specifics of the promotion, getting the red 3Ds holiday 2011 from Bestbuy with Mario Kart 7/3D land/Zelda OOT for $200.
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blacktout
Member
... The Nintendo brand didn't have a nostalgia factor in 2012?
Mario was 30 years old by that point, which, judging by your post, is probably at least a decade older than you are now.
The reason Nintendo has delayed it is precisely because Nintendo is scared to death of the very real possibility of it being a failure.
They're launching in uncertain economic times (Trump tariffs or China invading Taiwan would destroy their launch) and against stiff competition from commodity handhelds and the PS5. And as someone mentioned, their biggest competitor might be the OG Switch.
They're launching in uncertain economic times (Trump tariffs or China invading Taiwan would destroy their launch) and against stiff competition from commodity handhelds and the PS5. And as someone mentioned, their biggest competitor might be the OG Switch.
Negotiator
Member
Or perhaps they're trying to build a huge inventory to deter scalping:
Nintendo says it wants to avoid Switch 2 scalping by making enough to meet demand | VGC
President Shuntaro Furukawa says he doesn’t think component shortages will be an issue…
www.videogameschronicle.com
The fact we have so many leaks and they most likely use Samsung 8nm tells us all we need to know.
ps: China will invade Taiwan in 2027. Trump tariffs are a possibility though.
dragonyeuw
Member
Probably but the current Switch is pretty much tapped out sales-wise as the market anticipates the next system, so they're going to have to make the move eventually. I think the above comment about ensuring they have great stock levels is the bigger issue. They want this system in the hands of people who want it and will buy software, not those who want to buy them up to flip. With all the issues you raise they want to minimize any friction in genuinely interested parties making a purchase.
delirium trigger
Member
I grew up in the nintendo/snes/64 era, bought a gamecube with money I made from my first job. Nintendo in the early 2010's did not have the nostalgia factor it does now. It was more the kid/gimmicky console. People that grew up on it are now buying their kids the systems. The brand is on a whole new level. They can shovel out some serious turds to be met with nothing but praise.
blacktout
Member
If this is true, then all I can say is that you and I have vastly different memories of that time, because I turned 40 this year (ugh) and know that my decision to purchase a Wii back in 2008 was heavily driven by nostalgia and that I already had friends from high school at that point who had had kids in their early 20s and bought the Wii for them out of exactly the nostalgia you're describing.
Nostalgia has basically been central to Nintendo's brand arguably as early as the GameCube (or even N64) era. They sold the GameBoy Advance in part on the back of ports of NES and SNES Super Mario games.
The thing is that that nostalgia alone has never been enough. They also have to have a compelling hardware hook and software that drives conversation, which is what the Switch had with the hybrid form factor and games like Beath of the Wild and New Horizons that became cultural phenomenons and which the Wii U lacked with a tablet gimmick that no one cared about and titles like New Super Mario Bros U and 3D World that were too derivative of past titles to inspire breakout interest.
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Woopah
Member
They are in a much, much better position than they were before the Wii U, but of course that doesn't guarantee success.
It never got a mainline Pokémon or Animal Crossing, it only got a mainline Zelda on the last day of its life, and it's mainline Smash and 2D Mario came in the same year those franchises came to 3DS.
While I agree that more than the list was required, even that list was gimped on the Wii U.
It never got a mainline Pokémon or Animal Crossing, it only got a mainline Zelda on the last day of its life, and it's mainline Smash and 2D Mario came in the same year those franchises came to 3DS.
dragonyeuw
Member
Even when the Wii U flopped the 3Ds carried them until the Switch came in. There's not an 'other' system to prop them up if the Switch 2 fails, so it really is an all or nothing scenario.
delirium trigger
Member
It's going to sell like crazy even with a bad release lineup. You'll be playing shovel knight on your switch 2 in no time.
Rawbutt Jellybean
Member
Why are you only counting Nintendo consoles and not Nintendo handhelds? Even the worst of which, the 3DS, still managed to sell over 75 million.
Neff
Member
Actually yeah you kinda do. Every console failure has standout, concrete reasons behind it. So far we have no reason to believe Switch 2 will fail.
All Nintendo really needs to do is deliver the hardware and software that people expect and want. In other words, carry on doing what Switch did.
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onnextflix5
Member
Nah it’s not gonna have the same problem as switch 1, it is too weak and will abandoned very quickly, only real problems Nintendo have is the price and its looks exactly like the switch 1, is it enough of a upgrade to switch?
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delishcaek
Member
Nintendo's handhelds have never failed and the Switch 2 won't be an exception to that rule because there is no alternative and no, PC handhelds are NOT an alternative for the vast majority of handheld gamers.
lachesis
Member
I think pricing and game line up is important. Nothing is guaranteed in video game world.
Having said so, I think it’s very possible that Switch 2 will enjoy a big sales success, but as well as DS and OG Switch? I am a pessimist, so I don’t think it will surpass either. Maybe Wii level success?
Having said so, I think it’s very possible that Switch 2 will enjoy a big sales success, but as well as DS and OG Switch? I am a pessimist, so I don’t think it will surpass either. Maybe Wii level success?
BlackTron
Member
Nintendo had the nostalgia factor in 2000. So, before you were born.
TintoConCasera
I bought a sex doll, but I keep it inflated 100% of the time and use it like a regular wife
All they have to do is develop a machine capable enough to play the latest gacha games and, between that and the Mario, Pokemon and Zeldas, that shit will sold out in a month.
kevboard
Member
Mario Kart 9
they will absolutely use that as their big launch game, and it's the successor to one of the most successful games ever.
it sold almost as many copies as Wii Sports, and Wii Sports was bundled with the console
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DKPOWPOW
Member
It's really only gonna hurt if they try milk it with games previously released on Switch. They try the game they did with the Wii U library on Switch and it's just not gonna work for Switch 1 going to Switch 2. It's one thing to port titles from a dead console with an online and digital infrastructure that is dead as well, to a hybrid console where portability is a big plus.
It's a completely different thing to do that with a successor console to a major hit, when all of your competitors are doing patches and upgrades either free or for a minor cost ($10). It will fall flat on its face. The games won't sell, and people might just choose not to upgrade at all.
We'll see, but if they try to prance around a $70 Switch 2 port of Breath of the Wild as an enticing launch game, that's a huge strike 1.
This isn't a big deal, Switch 1 sold gangbusters with a 3 hour battery life on launch and not a great LCD screen. To top it off the dock scratched the screen, and the joycons drifted like trash. Despite all this, it sold due to the hybrid nature being solid and Nintendo firing on all cylinders game wise for almost 2 years straight.
Big thing is that there are no defects this time. People won't be dropping almost $500 after tax for a console plus a game when the controllers drift like trash or there's other issues. The launch consoles need to be solid. The online infrastructure needs to be solid, carrying over your profile and digital library needs to be easy. There should be absolutely no issues popping in your old Switch games and carrying over your saves, everything should be smooth.
And the big thing, they should be providing updates or patches for popular Switch games to run even better on Switch 2. Rewarding your previous community is the best thing you can do in a scenario where you want them to upgrade. Do I expect them to do this for free? Probably not, it's Nintendo. They are known to be greedy. But, I think at this point in the game it has to be reasonable. Either as some kind of tier to the NSO subscription, and/or a separate $5/$10 upgrade if you own the game.
Now I can totally see them repackaging old Switch games with a Player's Choice label, hovering their price around $30-$40 and having it say now upgraded for Switch 2. It's a logical move to continue the evergreen ideal, for completely new Switch owners.
CrustyBritches
Gold Member
I don't think so. They found a form-factor that allows them to get triple or quadruple dips from the faithful. That 30 million hardcore fanbase will get them over 100 million units regardless of what else happens.
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SF Kosmo
Al Jazeera Special Reporter
I think Switch 2 is going to do worse than its predecessor, but it would have to be a pretty steep drop to be a real failure in objective terms.
I think that Switch 2 is facing a lot more pressure from casual and mobile gaming, as well as just hyper addictive media like TikTok. Little kids are not as into conventional single player games of the sort that Switch thrives on compared to 8 years ago. I also think Switch 2 is about 1-2 years past the optimal release window.
It still kind of has the handheld market cornered. Steam Deck might be a little bit of competition in the margins, but not a real threat. So I'm sure it will do just fine, but Nintendo is not immune the the headwinds facing the rest of the industry.
I think that Switch 2 is facing a lot more pressure from casual and mobile gaming, as well as just hyper addictive media like TikTok. Little kids are not as into conventional single player games of the sort that Switch thrives on compared to 8 years ago. I also think Switch 2 is about 1-2 years past the optimal release window.
It still kind of has the handheld market cornered. Steam Deck might be a little bit of competition in the margins, but not a real threat. So I'm sure it will do just fine, but Nintendo is not immune the the headwinds facing the rest of the industry.
AeonGaidenRaiden
Member
Really wasnt. On paper, it was just as XsX is more powerful than PS5 which means nothing in reality all things considered up to today. Besides those 3 RE games that arguably looked better, they were at the time console exclusives built specifically for that hardware, not for PS2 in mind. Third-party didn't look better on GC, best burnout games werent even ported on GC, had arguably the shittiest Mario game, MGS 1 remake was mostly disliked by fans. While on PS2 you got MGS 2 and 3, probably the best MGS titles ever.
So it wasn't because people wanted to play RR5, it was because it had way more games, more massive franchises were on PS2 only at the time, DVD which was a huge deal for everyone and to add to that, games had 3 times the capacity on the disc than GC could so like I said, maybe some early first party that later got ported looked better but you cant say most games looked better while having 3 times less disc space to cram all that into. Also it looked like a kids lunchbox.
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Mhmmm 2077
Member
As a personal "thank you" to Gaben, since he "asked" Nintendo if it's okay to allow Dolphin emulator on Steam.
duck_sauce
Member
Markio128
Member
But won’t Mario Kart 9 be also released for the OG Switch? It’s just as likely to boost the OG Switch sales as the Switch 2’s.
SenkiDala
Member
I exagerated a lot yes. The PS2 was the best console of its generation, it just started pretty weakly.
What I mean in fact is just that the GC had all the reasons to be successful, awesome games, awesome exclusives, awesome controller, awesome tech... But just people didn't bite. The hype for the PS2 was just too strong and nothing could cohabit with it.
BlackTron
Member
With Mario Kart 9 I would hope for a game that wouldn't run on OG Switch. This is a Switch 2, not a Switch Pro.
If Switch 2 doesn't have pull with software you can't get on OG, it's going to fail. Resolution bump isn't enough.
AngelMuffin
Member
It could sell 50M units less than the Switch and still be a success.
kevboard
Member
Nintendo usually doesn't do cross gen unless the game was already promised on the older system. So I doubt it will release on the Switch 1.
my bet is that the only cross gen games are Metroid Prime 4 and Pokemon ZA
Markio128
Member
I can’t see them ignoring the millions of OG Switch owners on this occasion, but you never know. I just think that the fact the next console is essentially a Switch 2 means the game has changed for Nintendo.
LordOcidax
Member
And Pokemon
Woopah
Member
The next Mario Kart will be selling for years to come, so they don't need to ignore them.
Some of those OG Switch owners will upgrade on Day 1, others will do it in Year 6. Either way, they can still buy the next Mario Kart when they do get the Switch 2.
Hudo
Member
Game Freak have proven that they could sell literal dog shit with Pokemon branding on it and it would sell well. I don't know how Nintendo could've been OK with releasing Scarlet and Violet. And I can't comprehend how those sold so much.
kevboard
Member
well, on the one hand they would leave a very large install base out of the potential sales,
on the other hand Nintendo games have WAAAAAAAY lower budgets than those games that need to have such an install base to be profitable.
Nintendo doesn't need MK9 to sell 20 million copies to make a profit from it,
but they can use it to promote their new console with exclusive new games.
I think MK9 is way more valuable in the long run as an exclusive for them, than it would be if it was cross gen.
especially if we take into account the fact that games like that keep selling millions of copies even years after launch.
MK8 Deluxe, which was already a rerelease of MK8, was in the top 10 sales charts for what felt like years. every week it was not a question of if it will be there, just a question of where in the top 10 it will be this week.
HALF of ALL Switch owners also own Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.
so every second new Switch user also bought Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. in fact it should be more than half, as there are probably many people that bought multiple Switch systems over the years, but only 1 copy of MK8 Deluxe
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amigastar
Gold Member
It's really astounding how they can keep the quality of their 1st party titles so high after all these years.
I really look forward to the new 3D Mario on Switch 2.
WhiteWaterM00se
Member
Switch 2 could fail. Even though i expect the following, I think Nintendo will be fine as long as they have a strong lineup of games without the old school “Nintendo droughts”. These same droughts have plagued PlayStation and Xbox this generation.
I do think 3rd parties will likely be onboard early with Switch 2 to catch the momentum. Which will help!
That said, I Do expect:
1.) Switch 2 1st party games $70-$80 USD. I also think when GTA VI comes, it will be $80 on all platforms. Maybe $80-$90 on Switch 2 for physical.
2.) I think there is some annoying thing about the BC. Whatever that is.
3.) Nintendo will not give you “FREE graphical UPDATES” to existing Switch 1 titles. They will be either paid updates, or included in Nintendo Online subscription. BUT if you want a physical version, that is FULL price. $70-$80. BOTW will be a good example. *** some titles will automatically run better because of unlocked frame rate, MH Rise will make use of this***
Nintendo is absolutely going to resell you some Switch 1 titles with graphical and performance upgrades.
4.) Expect to be buying new Joycons and Pro Controllers. I think the old will likely work, but for the “FULL EXPERIENCE” you will need the new controller.
5.) I expect it to be less powerful than people are speculating, and likely in between a PS4 and PS4 Pro. For the lovely price of $449.
I do think 3rd parties will likely be onboard early with Switch 2 to catch the momentum. Which will help!
That said, I Do expect:
1.) Switch 2 1st party games $70-$80 USD. I also think when GTA VI comes, it will be $80 on all platforms. Maybe $80-$90 on Switch 2 for physical.
2.) I think there is some annoying thing about the BC. Whatever that is.
3.) Nintendo will not give you “FREE graphical UPDATES” to existing Switch 1 titles. They will be either paid updates, or included in Nintendo Online subscription. BUT if you want a physical version, that is FULL price. $70-$80. BOTW will be a good example. *** some titles will automatically run better because of unlocked frame rate, MH Rise will make use of this***
Nintendo is absolutely going to resell you some Switch 1 titles with graphical and performance upgrades.
4.) Expect to be buying new Joycons and Pro Controllers. I think the old will likely work, but for the “FULL EXPERIENCE” you will need the new controller.
5.) I expect it to be less powerful than people are speculating, and likely in between a PS4 and PS4 Pro. For the lovely price of $449.
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Parazels
Member
Don't get me wrong, I respect this franchise, but what so special could MK9 offer in comparison to MK8?
kevboard
Member
well, hard to say.
ways that could make it special would be a proper campaign mode with special race types, special challenges and a hub world.
or making it a full blown Nintendo cross franchise game. they did add other Nintendo characters in MK8 eventually, but they could have 1 character per franchise in there to unlock in addition to the typical Mario characters.
this could be tied to the campaign, where you need to unlock special challenge missions that are themed to each IP, like the special Sony IP levels in Astro Bot
they could copy Sonic and have multiple vehicle transformations. proper flying with planes instead of gliders and driving on water with boats.
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I don’t know why they haven’t done Duffy King Racing and had multiple types . Not just transforming.
be cool to bring back hover carts and planes.
Then the bikes and carts can be in the vanilla mode.
Fabieter
Member
I dont think it will.