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[Boogie]

It’s time again for another UFC event, and as usual I’m here to give y’all the break down of the fight card.

This event looks pretty damn solid from top to bottom. There aren’t any complete no-name, unknown fighters on the card, unlike the last few UFCs (and Prides for that matter). I’m not going to say anything so superfluous as “it looks like the greatest UFC lineup EVER”, but it looks damn good, and I’m excited for it. There’s a lot of fights on this card that are VERY tough to call, in my opinion.

So, without further ado, on to the matchups.

Ivan Salaverry (10-3) vs. Joe Riggs (21-5)

This fight should be really exciting. Salaverry is really well-rounded, with excellent ground skills, while Riggs is a beast. Riggs seems to be very aggressive with his strikes, both standing and on the ground. I think Salaverry does have the skills to beat Riggs, but something tells me to pick Riggs anyway. Riggs by TKO, round 3.

Joe Doerkson (29-6) vs. Patrick Cote (6-1)

This is the first ever Canadian vs. Canadian UFC fight (whoopdy-doo, right?), and so I am
naturally confused as I cannot fall back on nationalism to make my pick. Heh, anyway, I see Cote as too inexperienced in this matchup. I don’t see Cote having the ground skills to keep the fight standing or defend against Doerkson’s jiu-jitsu. Doerkson by submission, round 2.

Travis Lutter (5-1) vs. Matt Lindland (13-3)

Lutter is still fairly inexperienced in MMA, but is apparently a BJJ black belt with insane ground skills, and with his recent one-punch knockout of Marvin Eastman, he seems to have striking ability too. The thing is, I don’t read much into the Eastman win, because to me, it’s becoming increasingly obvious that Eastman isn’t a particularly impressive fighter.

Lindland on the other hand, is very experienced, and was once considered to be at the top of the heap of the 185 lbs division, and he might be looking at a title shot if he wins this, unless the UFC gives it to Rich Franklin first. Lindland has shut down BJJ fighters before, and I think his experience helps him to take this one. Lindland by TKO, round 3.

Travis Wiuff (33-4) vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral (24-5)

This fight was close to being called off because Wiuff had failed an eye exam, but I hear it’s still on. Wiuff has a wealth of experience, and is on a 19-fight win streak. Despite his long list of wins, there aren’t really any big names among them. However, he’s also mostly fought at heavyweight, so perhaps by dropping down to light-heavyweight he can benefit from the Randy Couture Effect.

Babalu is on a 7 fight win streak since losing by KO to Chuck Liddell, including a 16-man
tournament win. This is another fight that is just really tough to call. I was going to pick Wiuff by coin-flip, but seeing the weigh-in pictures, Babalu looks INTENSE, and has intimidated me into changing my mind. Babalu by submission, round 3.

Mike Van Arsdale (7-1) vs. John Marsh (6-4)

This is probably the most obscure match of the card. Van Arsdale has only fought 3 times since 1998, while Marsh hasn’t been too active either. I think Marsh takes it by submission, round 2.

Georges “Rush” St. Pierre (8-1) vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller (11-3)

All right, time to hop back on the St. Pierre bandwagon! St. Pierre will be a UFC champion one day, in my opinion. Although he was defeated in the first round by Hughes, he was very
competitive until succumbing to the submission. I believe it was his lack of experience that lost the Hughes fight.

Jason Miller is a legitimate threat though, with wins over Egan Inoue, Ronald Jhun, and Denis Kang. And I almost want Jason to win in the event that he talks about the hilarious KTFO.tv debacle.

But he won’t win. St. Pierre is the future of the sport. He is skilled in all areas. He has
dangerous striking, good wrestling skills, and his jiu-jitsu is steadily improving. I believe he may also be the physically strongest man in the 170 lbs division. St. Pierre by TKO, round 3.

UFC Welterweight Championship Bout:

Matt Hughes (36-4) vs. Frank Trigg (12-2)

Although Hughes quickly disposed of Trigg in their first fight, this one is yet another fight that is difficult to call. On paper, they both have similar skills. They are both wrestlers, and Trigg might even be the better wrestler, and definitely seems to be the better striker, with Hughes probably having the edge in submission skills.

It seems to me that the deciding factor will be which wins between Hughes’ experience and
Trigg’s drive and aggression. In the first fight, it was Hughes’ experience. In this one.......Well, I’m very uncomfortable picking against Hughes because he has been such a dominant champion, but I can’t get both of their matches against Verissimo out of my mind. Hughes barely squeaked out a decision, while Trigg decisively finished him. Now maybe that means nothing, but
maybe......Trigg by decision.

UFC Light-Heavyweight Championship Bout:

Randy “The Natural” Couture (13-6) vs. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell (15-3)

Out of the three challengers to Couture’s throne, I think Liddell has the best chance to beat
Couture.....but that’s only because Tito and Vitor have no chance. Liddell made Randy work for the first win, although it was still fairly easy, while Randy just walked right through Tito and Vitor.

But has enough changed since their first fight for Liddell to win? Well, for starters, Randy is two years older now. But honestly, I don’t think that’s going to matter. Eventually, age will have to have an effect on Randy’s performance, but I think he will have retired before that happens. Chuck may be more focused and prepared for what Randy brings to the table, but I don’t think that he has drastically improved or changed his game in order to beat Randy. I think it will be a more competitive fight than the first one, and will last longer, but the winner will be the same. Couture by decision.


Man, this event could be crazy. I don’t feel particularly confident about ANY of my picks. We’ll see what happens.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Do Sky do this anymore in the UK, I really feel like watching one now but i think it quit been aired over here

 

[Boogie]

Sorry dude, I dunno the answer to that.

 

[Boogie]

Some of the weigh-in pics:

 

[Keyser Soze]

After a bit of checking i dont see it on the lisiting at all.

I dont know much about UFC but from the little i know that show looks damn good!!

 

[dream]

Ivan Salaverry is one of my favorite fighters to watch because he stays so active. I keep thinking back to the Semenov fight and how he just kept hustling to beat the shit out of Andrei until they finally (and mercifully) stopped the fight. Riggs is an absolute monster -- probably one of the strongest fighters at 185 -- but I think Salaverry's finesse is going to end up putting him in a dominant position for the TKO win.

Doerkson’s jiu-jitsu is just awesome. Don't let his performance against Riggs fool you -- he has really good standup too. I suspect this fight will look a lot like Doerkson vs Leben, only Cote won't make it to a decision.

Lindland will shut down Lutter the same way he did Almeida and Salaverry. That is, it won't be exciting on any level, but it will be a strong dominant performance for a unanimous decision.

I love Travis Wiuff. I think this guy has so much raw potential in MMA. Unfortunately, I think he has two things going against him in this fight. 1) Dropping from 250 to 205 is going to absolutely drain him. I was stunned when Rich Franklin went down from 205 to 185 but Wiuff's weight loss is even more unbelievable. It's just not a natural weight for him and he's not even testing the waters at 205; he's jumping straight into the deep end. 2) Babalu is awesome. Beating Pele showed that Babalu can thwart an awesome striker and his performance in winning the IFC 8-man tournament (despite looking like Ken Shamrock after the Tito fight) a few years back showed how much heart this guy has. I think Babalu takes this either by KO when Wiuff shoots in or by sub when Wiuff takes him down.

Mike Van Arsdale has always shown a lot of potential but he never sticks around long enough to let it flourish. He's still good enough of a wrestler to stay on top of Marsh and avoid his subs to pound out a decision though.

Rush vs Mayhem...wow. This is going to be awesome. If it goes the way I think it will go, it will probably be on the Bonnar/Griffen level of excitement. I agree with you when you say that Rush is the complete package. This guy is going to win the 170 belt soon and he's going to hold it for a long time. Mayhem can't stand with Rush for too long and he probably won't be able to take him down either. But he can clinch and pull guard. On the ground I think the edge goes to Mayhem -- the kid has absolutely incredible BJJ. And we've seen Rush panic and get submitted before. Because of that, I think this fight is far more of a pick'em than you do with a very slight edge going to Rush just because of his explosive power.

I expect Frank Trigg to beat Matt Hughes because he's hungrier, a better striker, and a better wrestler. That's just conventional wisdom and, from looking at the lines on the fight at different sportsbooks, the betting public seems to agree. I'm not sure I agree with you when you say that Hughes has the edge in submissions. Trigg trains with guys like Fernado Vascocalas so he has a good BJJ game. He just got caught last time. The problem with Trigg is he tends to mentally break down once he starts getting hit. Watch his fight with Sakurai or his first fight against Dennis Hallman. Once he gets tagged he seems to lose a lot of his intensity and that could be fatal if Hughes manages to get him down and unloads. Hughes, on the other hand, has been pounded on by Sean Sherk and Rush and he keeps coming with the same intensity while following the same destructive gameplan. I expect Frank Trigg to beat Matt Hughes because he's hungrier, a better striker, and a better wrestler. But I'm picking Hughes to retain because when this fight turns into a war, Hughes' heart will give him the edge to finish off a mentally defeated Frank Trigg.

When Zuffa first announced the first Chuck Liddell vs Randy Couture fight, I thought it was stylistically a terrible fight for Chuck to take. I thought Chuck could beat everyone at 205 except for Randy. Now? I think Randy can beat everyone at 205 except for Chuck Liddell.

Chuck's had two years to fix the holes in his game. Sure, he still throws sloppy haymakers and he still has that potentially fatal tendency to take a shot to give a shot. But there is nobody at 205 who hits as hard as him. There is nobody at 205 with a chin like his. And there is nobody at 205 who can scramble from the bottom the way Chuck Liddell can. His training camp has gone exactly the way it should have. He worked with John Hackleman to improve his punching combinations by stringing together power with speed instead of just sitting back and throwing a haymaker every few seconds. He's worked with Eddie Bravo on guard and half-guard sweeps knowing that Randy will take him down repeatedly. And he's worked with the Cal-Poly wrestling team to figure out how to survive and escape Randy's clinch. By all accounts, Randy's been following the exact same training program (and rightfully so) for this rematch.

Randy also doesn't seem to be motivated for this fight. He's never been one to talk trash but he said he would outwrestle and dominate Tito -- which he did. He said he'd beat the shit out of Vitor -- which he did. For this rematch, the best Randy can come up with is "it doesn't matter who wins or loses." Which echoes his comments and attitude before the Barnett and Rodriguez fights (which he lost).

I'm also concerned that Randy may have cut too much water weight by weighing in at 203. If you saw the weighins, he looks absolutely shredded but he also looks drawn in the face the way a bodybuilder does. That could affect his gas tank heading into the 4th and 5th rounds of the fight. On the other hand, Chuck isn't known for having the best conditioning either.

I hate betting against Randy Couture but I'm taking Chuck Liddell by decision for the upset.

 

[Bishman]

This is going to be my first-ever UFC PPV thanks to the Ultimate Fighter. And from what I've, Randy Couture is going to win just like he did last. But I want to Chuck Liddel to win after seeing what he did to Tito and his past fights. It really doesn't matter who wins because this is going to be one of the best fights in UFC history.

 

[Keyser Soze]

I just found out the Bravo is airing the whole thing tomorrow night!

I now get to see the show and my wallet is also chuckling with delight!

Gotta avoid this thread for a day now though

 

[Biff Hardbody]

Thanks for alerting me, Boogie.

I got the shakes, bad cold. So, not a complete rundown. Just my thoughts on the maine vent and who I ant to win in others.

Couture/Lidell

Couture by 4th TKO. I recently watched most of Couture's big fights, and its amazing how far he's come as a fighter. Yes, his gameplan still remains the same. But, just look at his robotic guard in the Smith fight, or how he akwardly bounced around in the first Belfort fight compared to his later fights standup. Watching training footage of him that was released, I was impressed at how naturally he moved in his boxing. He's come a long way. He flows now, is far more relaxed. Couture is one of the few fighters I can say that looks better every fight I see him in, like he's really trying to get to be a better champion rather then just rest on his laurels.

I like Chuck, and am kinda actually rooting for him to win via KO. But, I don't see it happening. Watching Couture/Rizzo I, I came away wwith two thoughts. 1, Rizzo should have been given the decision , and 2 Couture may be the toughest bastard in MMA. I don't see Chuck being able to KO Randy, and frankly that's the only way I can think of him winning a fight with Couture. If he doesn't win via KO, its decision city and that's Randy's world.

Hughes/Trigg

I can't be nearly as eloquent as others have commented on these two, because I've only seen a few of their fights. I like Hughes and hope he takes this. I think it'll be a very good fight.

Finally, I'm a fan of Babalu. I remember thinking "what a stupid name" and then seeing a highlight of this guy. He's a impressive fighter, and I always look foward to watching him.

 

[dream]

Spoiler

Christ, I typed all that about Chuck's style adjustments and he KO's Randy with a punch

 

[The Faceless Master]

Spoiler

Christ, I typed all that about Chuck's style adjustments and he KO's Randy with a punch

Spoiler

more like a ric flair eye gouge for the win... at least he didnt break out the sledgehammer

 

[dream]

Spoiler

It's kind of odd that Chuck has thumbed Tito, White, and now Randy but I don't think that had anything to do with it. Randy just didn't look sharp in this fight and Chuck had an awesome strategy of using a lot of lateral movement and keeping his stance lower.

 

[Biff Hardbody]

Spoiler

Christ, I typed all that about Chuck's style adjustments and he KO's Randy with a punch

Spoiler

Holy shit man, I can't fucking believe it. Great call. I would have never thought Lidell would be able to KO Couture. Never. I am shocked right now.

 

[Boogie]

Spoiler

Why are we spoiler-tagging our reactions? ;P

AWESOME EVENT!!!!!!!

Like I said, I wasn't confident in my calls, and went four for eight. But that's okay.

I was completely floored by Chuck KO'ing Randy. Unbelievable. Anything can happen in this sport, anybody can be KO'd.

The fight of the night for me was Hughes/Trigg. That was AMAZING! Hughes takes a low blow, can't get a breather from the ref, Trigg capitalizes and puts Hughes inches from being put away, and then BOOM, Hughes reverses him, gets pissed, slams him, pounds on him, and chokes him. Best comeback EVER.

St. Pierre looked dominant in his win. Mayham Miller was slippery, but never really mounted any real offense against Georges.

And Lindland was impressive in sinking the guillotine on Lutter.

All in all, an AWESOME EVENT.

 

[Hitman]

Just watching the fight over and over on my computer... Looked like Liddle took two stabs at Randy's eye and caught him with the second. I'm not saying it was intentional, but I'm not going to say it was'nt either. Were there post fight comments by the fighters?

 

[Biff Hardbody]

This is just a bad dream. I'm kinda high on meds right now, so I'm sure I have it all wrong and Randy actually took Lidell down and controlled him with surgical precision.

....


I've watched the fight like 5 times now. I'm still shocked. Man, I said before I kinda hoped Chuck won via KO...but now that its happened I feel bad for Randy. I'm happy for Chuck, because he's cool and it sets up some good matchups. Its just really weird to see Couture get KOed.

 

[Asbel]

I like Randy better but Chuck would be the first guy I want to see beat him. I don't feel bad for Randy because he recovered fine in his post fight interview. Just hope he comes back to his winning ways again soon. In the meantime, Chuck will be a great and excitng champ.

The way Hughes carried Trigg across the cage after nearly being KOed made that the fight of the night for me. Man, that's gotta be very confusing to have a guy you just beat the shit out of carry you around like a child. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing. Great fucking comeback.

The night has other great finishes too. Looks like UFC is hyping up the Middleweights, they were even pimping Lindland before the show. Perhaps a division where we won't see a dominate champ for years, that would be cool.