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[El Topo]

Oceanic could not have known the identity of both Masons on D3, unless Oceanic and (at least) one of the Masons, i.e. Sawneeks and/or Kyanrute, is scum. As I wrote earlier, the Masons could (and should) have come forward to help him, but instead they decided to keep quiet.

In my opinion, that gives us three candidates today: Sawneeks, Kyanrute, Oceanic Air

 

[El Topo]

The only problem I have with Oceanic being scum is that there wasn't really any necessity to role/item claim. The information he gave us was pretty useless and the Masons came forward before he could reveal his information. Not only that, but he claims his power is two-shot, which means he risked a lot for...virtually nothing.

It doesn't really make sense to claim there as scum, because being the name cop puts a big target on you. On the other hand, I'm not happy with a two-shot cop claiming after his first hit.

 

[Sophia]

kalor (1)
oceanicair 1123

el topo (1)
sawneeks 1128

sawneeks (3)
cornburrito 1141
stanleypalmtree 1147
melonrabbit 1194

Majority is 7

Day 4 ends in:

 

[Karkador]

The only problem I have with Oceanic being scum is that there wasn't really any necessity to role/item claim. The information he gave us was pretty useless and the Masons came forward before he could reveal his information. Not only that, but he claims his power is two-shot, which means he risked a lot for...virtually nothing.

It doesn't really make sense to claim there as scum, because being the name cop puts a big target on you. On the other hand, I'm not happy with a two-shot cop claiming after his first hit.

That's not right. He roleclaimed first and said he found a Mason, then Kyan (the one he didn't scan) came forward. Then he named Sawneeks as the one he scanned.

 

[Karkador]

Another weird thing is why the focus thus far is mostly on you rather than Kyanrute. If you are both town, mafia would obviously want to remove the more experienced player.

So then why didn't mafia target either of them last night, to break up this mason pair and get a target out? Why struggle to boot them in the day phase and boot a seemingly random pick like ynnek7?


Survey says:

It's because they're not Town.

 

[Karkador]

I'm sure this has been answered before, but...why did Oceanic claim he had found a Mason, but then explained that neither of the Masons had voted for Dusk? See Post #889.

He was basically saying he found Sawneeks the Mason, and they did not vote for Dusk (which is true). There's no contradiction.

Now, whether or not that's a breadcrumb deliberately placed there to make it seem, retroactively, that OA didn't know who the other Mason is? Let's revisit that with more information.

 

[Sawneeks]

Vote: Kalor

Although at this point I'm also strongly for a better look at Topo just on the grounds of him dodging. Seeing as I will probably end up being lynched today I hope someone the next Day phase puts him under a microscope to see what happens.

I also more than likely won't be here until the last 10 minutes of the Day. I forgot today was my busy day at work. >.>

So then why didn't mafia target either of them last night, to break up this mason pair and get a target out? Why struggle to boot them in the day phase and boot a seemingly random pick like ynnek7?


Survey says:

It's because they're not Town.

Or because Scum realize that Town will do their job for them? Why NK two good mislynch targets when two wasted Day phases is far more enticing?

 

[Karkador]

Or because Scum realize that Town will do their job for them? Why NK two good mislynch targets when two wasted Day phases is far more enticing?

So they're also assuming Town will do their job for them and eliminate the NameCop?

There's a rather pressing reason Mafia would want two Town masons out, though.

 

[CornBurrito]

The only problem I have with Oceanic being scum is that there wasn't really any necessity to role/item claim. The information he gave us was pretty useless and the Masons came forward before he could reveal his information. Not only that, but he claims his power is two-shot, which means he risked a lot for...virtually nothing.

It doesn't really make sense to claim there as scum, because being the name cop puts a big target on you. On the other hand, I'm not happy with a two-shot cop claiming after his first hit.

To be honest the "oh btw I'm 2 shot" claim is just... weird.

If he was a role cop who had spent his uses, why not -not- mention that and cause scum to spend a kill on a now vanilla ex-cop, instead of potentially getting them to hit a PR.

Meanwhile it conveniently gives him reason to keep on living after everyone is questioning "why didn't scum kill the role cop?"

 

[CornBurrito]

Something isn't adding up here.

Vote: OceanicAir

 

[Karkador]

To be honest the "oh btw I'm 2 shot" claim is just... weird.

If he was a role cop who had spent his uses, why not -not- mention that and cause scum to spend a kill on a now vanilla ex-cop, instead of potentially getting them to hit a PR.

Meanwhile it conveniently gives him reason to keep on living after everyone is questioning "why didn't scum kill the role cop?"

Sounds like filling in an overlooked detail in the story

 

[CornBurrito]

Sawneeks what do you think about OA?

 

[El Topo]

He was basically saying he found Sawneeks the Mason, and they did not vote for Dusk (which is true). There's no contradiction.

Now, whether or not that's a breadcrumb deliberately placed there to make it seem, retroactively, that OA didn't know who the other Mason is? Let's revisit that with more information.

He said he found one of the Masons, before either had claimed, but said that neither had voted for Dusk. That doesn't work.

 

[Karkador]

He said he found one of the Masons, before either had claimed, but said that neither had voted for Dusk. That doesn't work.

I thnk we're reading the sentence two different ways?

 

[El Topo]

He made a statement about both Masons, when he could not have known the identity of both Masons. Given the way his post is written, I don't believe it is a slip up.

 

[El Topo]

Now that everyone has posted for the day, I want to say that I was the winner of the Laptop on N1.

He says he won the laptop.

It gave me the power of a Role Cop and in my investigations I did find a Mason.

He said he found a Mason, i.e. using his ability as role cop he found one player that is a mason.

Now, I'm not sure whether or not they are town and I'm also not sure whether or not they could have an additional role (nothing in my result gave any other indication). But currently I'm leaning towards scum right now, just want to know whether or not I should name them.

He makes a statement about whether they're scum and says he knows both identities. How? How could he know both their identities?

 

[Karkador]

Alright, tell me what you're reading so we're on the same page.

BTW, I'm not defending OA, I just want everyone to be clear on what's being said

 

[Karkador]

I think you're reading the "they/them" as plural when it's singular

 

[Sawneeks]

So they're also assuming Town will do their job for them and eliminate the NameCop?

There's a rather pressing reason Mafia would want two Town masons out, though.

No, I was talking about Kyan and I.

For OA it seems actually kinda straightforward? We haven't had any Town protective roles flip. If I were Scum I wouldn't waste a NK on a newly claimed Cop because they would probably be covered in protective or information roles. So just wait for a different Night to off the Cop and kill a defenseless target instead.

Alright, tell me what you're reading so we're on the same page.

BTW, I'm not defending OA, I just want everyone to be clear on what's being said

Oh I could make such a joke here.

 

[Sawneeks]

Sawneeks what do you think about OA?

Probably Town. I don't think OA surviving a Night is indicative of alignment and from my brief interactions I haven't noticed or felt anything scummy.

OA is actually one of the few people I arguably trust atm

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

Not feeling confident about this at all.

VOTE: Kalor

 

[nin1000]

Not feeling confident about this at all.

VOTE: Kalor

Why cast a vote then? Is Kalor the only option for you?

 

[Karkador]

No, I was talking about Kyan and I.

I know you were. The point is that you're saying mafia is apparently relegating priority targets to Town lynches, which means they're either digging their own grave, or these are actually not priority targets.

Kawl_USC
Lone_Prodigy
ynnek7

What's the common thread between them?

For OA it seems actually kinda straightforward? We haven't had any Town protective roles flip. If I were Scum I wouldn't waste a NK on a newly claimed Cop because they would probably be covered in protective or information roles. So just wait for a different Night to off the Cop and kill a defenseless target instead.

Considering how these powers are being handed out, I think we both know that a protective role isn't enough of a certainty to really be risking a NameCop.

If OA is Town, Mafia is probably considering instead that he reads items and not alignments. More useful alive than dead.

 

[Karkador]

Now, since you didn't bite at my reasoning for why Town Masons would be a pressing issue for Mafia, I'll spell it out:


The Mafia can rig the bidding game, because they can talk to each other and coordinate their bids. The blind bid is Town's biggest disadvantage because they MUST bid blind.

However, throw some Town Masons into the mix, and it changes. Masons would be able to coordinate, too, and that would present a big challenge to Mafia.

In a bidding war between 1 mafia and 2 masons, I think the masons would win. And mafia should know this, which makes it all the more likely that they'd want to just break the Mason pair up.

Now, if one of those two is Scum? Then the Mason pair is actually very valuable, as Mafia essentially gets another ballot in the bidding game.

 

[Kalor]

Kalor, what is your read on Sawneeks? She strongly believes you are scum.

Also you vote for Blarg on Day 1, WhereAreMahDragons/SalvaPot on Day 2 and Day 3. Do you still think SalvaPot is scum?

Right now I don't think Sawneeks is scum. I don't think either of the two masons are scum though I would need to go reread Kyan's posts.

As for Salva I don't think they are scum. I was never sure that they were scum but towards the end it seemed to be better for town that we lynch Salva and get that flip information. Though Splinter's deathhas made me reconsider it. He wouldn't go after a teammate so early. Especially on a point that no-one noticed before he did.

[m] Kalor: CM actually stole the question I was aiming to ask you so I will ask a different one. Your Top 3 Town and Top 3 Scum please.

I was struggling to think of a third for each so I just did two.

Top Town: Karkador, CornBurrito

Most suspicious: nin1000, OceanicAir (Only due to the fact that they survived the night.)

 

[nin1000]

Most suspicious: nin1000, OceanicAir (Only due to the fact that they survived the night.)

I understand the suspicion towards oceanic air surviving the night, since he is a claimed cop. But I want to know why you are throwing me in a cup with him. Why should I not have survived the night? I mean the chance of me dying was as high as every other town member.
Please elaborate some more Kalor, I know you can.

 

[Sawneeks]

i wasnt much of a fan of your defense when Kark went on the warpath against you and Kyan. the 'hey man you overthinking this' kinda attitudes in particular. this felt especially true with your defense being directly contrasted with kyans, which felt more.. i dunno, engaging?
also did you really call me out as scum? it seemed more like speculation than anything really substantial. i didnt reply to it since i didnt really feel all that accused by it, and as speculation it all made sense with how have been playing (except for that part about me 'dodging' splinter, that felt like a little much).

No thoughts on Kalor?

I know you were. The point is that you're saying mafia is apparently relegating priority targets to Town lynches, which means they're either digging their own grave, or these are actually not priority targets.

Kawl_USC
Lone_Prodigy
ynnek7

What's the common thread between them?




Considering how these powers are being handed out, I think we both know that a protective role isn't enough of a certainty to really be risking a NameCop.

If OA is Town, Mafia is probably considering instead that he reads items and not alignments. More useful alive than dead.

Mafia are killing quiet targets at Night or people who wouldn't give info on their flip. LP, Kawl, and Ynnek were all relatively quiet players.

They are leaving alive those who are a distraction for Town. Why else would they leave Dragonz alive? The more Town mislynches or gets distracted chasing its' own tail the more time they have out of the line of fire.

Now, since you didn't bite at my reasoning for why Town Masons would be a pressing issue for Mafia, I'll spell it out:


The Mafia can rig the bidding game, because they can talk to each other and coordinate their bids. The blind bid is Town's biggest disadvantage because they MUST bid blind.

However, throw some Town Masons into the mix, and it changes. Masons would be able to coordinate, too, and that would present a big challenge to Mafia.

In a bidding war between 1 mafia and 2 masons, I think the masons would win. And mafia should know this, which makes it all the more likely that they'd want to just break the Mason pair up.

Now, if one of those two is Scum? Then the Mason pair is actually very valuable, as Mafia essentially gets another ballot in the bidding game.

This is under the assumption that Kyan and I are giving each other bidding info. Seeing as we don't fully trust each other what makes you believe we would be exchanging that info?

Right now I don't think Sawneeks is scum. I don't think either of the two masons are scum though I would need to go reread Kyan's posts.

As for Salva I don't think they are scum. I was never sure that they were scum but towards the end it seemed to be better for town that we lynch Salva and get that flip information. Though Splinter's deathhas made me reconsider it. He wouldn't go after a teammate so early. Especially on a point that no-one noticed before he did.



I was struggling to think of a third for each so I just did two.

Top Town: Karkador, CornBurrito

Most suspicious: nin1000, OceanicAir (Only due to the fact that they survived the night.)

Why Nin and OA? What sticks out about them?

 

[nin1000]

Since we have around 4 hours left, let's make this interesting.

Vote: Kalor

Please respond

 

[Karkador]

Finally, the matter of this 4-way tie at the end of Day 3.

The tie was at 3 votes each for:
SalvaPot
MagnumBoy
Sawneeks
Karkador


Then, people started shifting around. The final vote:

salvapot (4)
kalor 803
*splinter 862 (1027)
nin1000 867 (898)
melonrabbit 878 (1037)
christina mackenzie 972
cornburrito 1012
starsketch 1062 (1064)
magnumboy20xx 1069 (1072)
melonrabbit 1076

nin1000 (0)
stanleypalmtree 840 (884)

kalor (0)
sawneeks 845 (918)

magnumboy20xx (6)
kyanrute 932
el topo 945
christina mackenzie 970 (972)
ynnek7 1017
*splinter 1027 (1056)
sawneeks 1068
magnumboy20xx 1072
starsketch 1079

sawneeks (3)
karkador 946
stanleypalmtree 979
starsketch 1018 (1020)
oceanicair 1040

karkador (1)
salvapot 996
starsketch 1020 (1062)
magnumboy20xx 1049 (1069)

*splinter (0)
melonrabbit 1053 (1076)

14 players in that vote landscape definitely means mafia is involved - and not just Splinter.

But look at how Splinter jumped between Salva and Magnum. It's clear that mafia wanted either of them out. The general thrust of "get somebody to win this vote" was in their direction.

Now, we know two voters on Magnum are flipped and not mafia - ynnek7 and Magnum.
That leaves Kyan, Topo, Sawneeks, and Sketch.

Do you guys think Splinter was holding that vote down by himself, on behalf of Mafia? Of course not.

The tie breaking effort seemed like it wanted to avoid Sawneeks and I. Myself, probably to not validate anything I was saying by flipping me (and to keep my distractions around). Even then, most of my voters moved away.

Sawneeks, I'm not so convinced is an innocent bystander here. I think it's mafia caught in a 4-way tie, which caused that scramble.

So between that, the odd play as an Unsure Mason, not being a target as a Town Mason, and trying to be vetted by another suspicious player (Oceanic), I gotta repeat.

VOTE: Sawneeks

 

[Kalor]

I understand the suspicion towards oceanic air surviving the night, since he is a claimed cop. But I want to know why you are throwing me in a cup with him. Why should I not have survived the night? I mean the chance of me dying was as high as every other town member.
Please elaborate some more Kalor, I know you can.

I was only referring to OA.

Why Nin and OA? What sticks out about them?

Nin because he's been relatively low key this game in regards to his votes. He hasn't taken any firm stance on any topic but is instead coasting along. He could simply be a town member who is struggling to read anyone but he equally could just be scum coasting along. OA is a more mixed bag. Holding back the fact that he is a 2 shot cop might have protected him last night but if I was mafia I wouldn't want to take any chances. The thing that makes me think he might actually be town is why would the mafia want to publicly reveal the masons. Draw attention to them so that they might be lynched?

 

[Karkador]

Mafia are killing quiet targets at Night or people who wouldn't give info on their flip. LP, Kawl, and Ynnek were all relatively quiet players.

No, that doesn't seem quite right. They would have just gone through inactives. Kawl may or may not have been involved in the bid (and possibly held an item), but nevertheless was being wily. LP was antagonizing Splinter on Day 2.

The Ynnek thing is special. Not only was he involved in N3's bid, he won the item AND used it to pop mafia, AND they popped him. In a game where we're hand-waving away a 1/5 chance that Mafia got Masoned as "unlikely", what are we calling the Ynnek situation? Divine intervention?

They are leaving alive those who are a distraction for Town. Why else would they leave Dragonz alive?

They've been an easy target to pick on that hasn't really fanned many flames?

This is under the assumption that Kyan and I are giving each other bidding info. Seeing as we don't fully trust each other what makes you believe we would be exchanging that info?

Right, the one thing you're claiming to be suspicious about Kyan for is the thing that none of us can see. Why do you owe Kyan so much loyalty?

 

[nin1000]

I was only referring to OA.

Ok, thanks for answering.

UNVOTE

 

[El Topo]

I find the theory that mafia wanted Magnum gone hard to believe, given how much e.g. Splinter argued for us to let him live. It makes little sense. Frankly I find OA's voting behavior a lot less defensible and Kark defending him so viciously only makes him more suspicious to me.

VOTE: OceanicAir

 

[Karkador]

I find the theory that mafia wanted Magnum gone hard to believe, given how much e.g. Splinter argued for us to let him live. It makes little sense. Frankly I find OA's voting behavior a lot less defensible and Kark defending him so viciously only makes him more suspicious to me.

VOTE: OceanicAir

Lol what, this id straight up a lie

 

[SalvaPot]

I haven't following today's event too much to be honest, but I stand by my analysis from the other day and vote for Kalor, who I feel has been insightful yet I feel his play is too careful to be town.

Vote: Kalor

 

[El Topo]

What is the idea behind voting for Kalor? What happened? What did he do?

 

[El Topo]

Come on Kark, *they*? Please.
*googles they+singular*
...what?

 

[Sawneeks]

Finally, the matter of this 4-way tie at the end of Day 3.

The tie was at 3 votes each for:
SalvaPot
MagnumBoy
Sawneeks
Karkador


Then, people started shifting around. The final vote:




14 players in that vote landscape definitely means mafia is involved - and not just Splinter.

But look at how Splinter jumped between Salva and Magnum. It's clear that mafia wanted either of them out. The general thrust of "get somebody to win this vote" was in their direction.

Now, we know two voters on Magnum are flipped and not mafia - ynnek7 and Magnum.
That leaves Kyan, Topo, Sawneeks, and Sketch.

Do you guys think Splinter was holding that vote down by himself, on behalf of Mafia? Of course not.

The tie breaking effort seemed like it wanted to avoid Sawneeks and I. Myself, probably to not validate anything I was saying by flipping me (and to keep my distractions around). Even then, most of my voters moved away.

Sawneeks, I'm not so convinced is an innocent bystander here. I think it's mafia caught in a 4-way tie, which caused that scramble.

So between that, the odd play as an Unsure Mason, not being a target as a Town Mason, and trying to be vetted by another suspicious player (Oceanic), I gotta repeat.

VOTE: Sawneeks

You know what Kark, gg

I can't argue tunnel logic and since most of the votes on me so far are due to gut feelings I have nothing I can respond to. I've given my reasons for the Mason claim, my thoughts on people, etc.

I just hope the next Day phase you can take a step back from tunneling.

What is the idea behind voting for Kalor? What happened? What did he do?

Okay, now this is ridiculous.

Am I blocked for you or something?

Seriously now, Topo.

 

[Sophia]

kalor (4)
oceanicair 1123
sawneeks 1207
christina mackenzie 1221
nin1000 1228 (1232)
salvapot 1235

el topo (0)
sawneeks 1128 (1207)

sawneeks (3)
cornburrito 1141 (1210)
stanleypalmtree 1147
melonrabbit 1194
karkador 1229

oceanicair (2)
cornburrito 1210
el topo 1233

Majority is 7

Day 4 ends in

 

[OceanicAir]

To be honest the "oh btw I'm 2 shot" claim is just... weird.

If he was a role cop who had spent his uses, why not -not- mention that and cause scum to spend a kill on a now vanilla ex-cop, instead of potentially getting them to hit a PR.

Meanwhile it conveniently gives him reason to keep on living after everyone is questioning "why didn't scum kill the role cop?"

Because CM asked me who I investigated last night and if you want me lie about investigating or say "it's a secret!" then I don't know what to tell you.

Come on Kark, *they*? Please.
*googles they+singular*
...what?

You know I just used "they" as a way to avoid using a gendered pronoun right? Because saying "she" would kinda narrow the focus to about three players.

 

[OceanicAir]

And in addition Corn, that's exactly why I didn't say I spent my uses yesterday when they were actually done.

 

[Sawneeks]

3 of the people who I have strong Town reads on are all on Kalor

and 2 of the 3 people on me are people i scum read

fancy that

 

[Karkador]

Day 1

Scum Blarg:

Dusk: Town. Unless this was a calculated play by the Scum team I highly doubt they would bus their own teammate so early.The whole 50/50 discussion earlier can just be placed under the 'confused townie' umbrella.

Splinter: Also Town, mainly for his incessant tunneling on Blarg currently and his early-game feelings of Blarg being Scum. Same as above, I doubt scum would bus their teammate so early.

OceanicAir: Scum....? Mainly for this post here. Felt like a scum teammate getting nervous that their scum buddy Blarg was under fire so early.

Kark: Scum? Besides playing oddly all game many of the early questions of the Day involve him subtly deflecting questions or just one sentance comments. Example Here. Can I also mention that the Plinko game started right after Blarg said he lied about the Xbox? And Plinko seems very much like a Blarg idea.

CM: They mentioned early on how they had intense feelings of disliking Blarg ( HERE ) only to come back later and say they weren't quite sure what to do. More of a null but I lean scum here because of the backing down on their earlier thoughts once the heat grew on Blarg.

Town Blarg:

Splinter: Still Town. Weaker than the above read but this early of a tunnel on a player seems like an odd move, even for Splinter.

Dusk: Scum....? His early game is weird no matter how it is spun and it still feels like Scum being pushed into a corner and not knowing how to escape. The only saving grace right now is if Blarg ends up Scum.

Kark: The Biggest Null Read of them All. 50/50, Plinko, and now invisible playing Lizardmen. I think he needs to see a Doctor because something is wrong, I just can't tell what.

CM: Oddly enough I have a stronger Scum read if Blarg is Town. The example above can be used here as well but it felt like early-game Scum throwing shade only to back down once things got a little more uncertain. Not to mention a lack of anything else for this Day 1.

Overall though it's a lot of null reads. This were just the ones I can instantly think of that would be connected to a Blarg flip in any way. There are others who I think are Town/Scum but haven't really connected themselves to the Blarg Problem.

What a cheery outlook

 

[Sawneeks]

Kark if you want to play that game you might want to call out OA too since he also Town Read Splinter on Day 1.

 

[Karkador]

That's a pretty nail there Splinter. Easily worth 1000 points.

Will wait for Dragonz response.

Though I still want to see Blarg lynched

Nice fist-bump for a confirmed mafia player there.

 

[Sawneeks]

oops, thought i caught all my scum tells

darn

 

[Karkador]

Come, Sawneeks, join me in the cheap seats. I have snacks and no inane questions from Kark. It's great.

Gladly, I feel like I'm talking in circles here.

Can you pass the popcorn, please.

This looks horrible in hindsight

 

[El Topo]

Okay, now this is ridiculous.

Am I blocked for you or something?

Seriously now, Topo.

I have no idea what you mean. You tried to start a discussion with me close to the deadline, about a topic I tackled earlier (and which I explicitly said we should deal with the next day), when there was the threat of a tie, i.e. I was anxious to F5 and trying to see if some late votes would cause a tie. It was a weird time to bring up that topic and you seemed rather relaxed to me/compared to me.

 

[Karkador]

Before Kyan claimed:

It really concerns me how many posts you aren't reading in this game.

As Magnum pointed out, Dusk probably created a mason pair that he wasn't involved with himself.



That said, I don't see how we can discuss this without knowing who we're talking about?

Wow, he somehow knew!

 

[El Topo]

I'm honestly not sold on the OceanicAir lynch. The explanation seems okay, I honestly didn't know that 'they' can be used in that way, but I'm still worried about his votes. I think I'll switch my vote to Sawneeks, but...I feel like her reaction today seems more in line with town. I don't know.