LectureMaster
Or is it just one of Adam's balls in my throat?
The ongoing structural change of the DRAM market caused by the shift of manufacturing capacities to production of high bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI accelerators has already caused a massive price hike of commodity DDR and LPDDR memory — but the worst is yet to come.
According to the general manager of Chinese memory giant TeamGroup, contract prices of DRAM and NAND products have almost doubled recently. Supply of commodity memory is set to worsen in early 2026, and normalization is unlikely before 2027 – 2028 when more production capacity emerges, reports DigiTimes.
December contract prices of some categories of DRAM and 3D NAND increased 80% to 100% month-on-month, according to Gerry Chen, general manager of TeamGroup, a prominent maker of memory modules, solid-state drives, and products based on 3D NAND. Spot prices tell a similar story. A 16Gb DDR5 chip was priced at $6.84 on average at DRAMeXchange on September 20. On November 19 average spot price was $24.83, but on December 1 average spot price of a 16 Gb DDR5 IC increased to $27.2 (session low was $19, session high was $37).
Essentially, memory alone for a 16 GB memory module costs around $217.6. A PCB, assembly, and testing, additional parts like PMIC will add $8 – $10, so a 16 GB memory module now costs $225 – $228 without manufacturer premiums, logistics, and taxes.
Chen expects availability of DRAM and NAND to worsen in the first and second quarters of 2026 once distribution stockpiles are exhausted. At that point, he cautions, obtaining allocation could become difficult regardless of willingness to pay. In his view, relief would not come quickly: he projects the current shortages to extend into late 2027 and potentially beyond.
The reason for shortages of commodity memory is well known: DRAM makers reallocate their production capacities to HBM (which uses larger DRAM dies than commodity types of memory) that is consumed by AI accelerators, like Nvidia's B300 or custom accelerators by large cloud service providers, such as AWS, Google, and Microsoft. These companies tend to book supply years in advance, so at some point, DRAM makers will not have enough capacity to meet demand for commodity DRAMs.
Building a new greenfield fab takes at least three years, so even if companies like Micron, Samsung, or SK hynix made a decision to build a memory fab today, it would come online in late 2028 at the earliest and would be fully ramped only sometime in 2029.
When it comes to NAND, NAND suppliers also prioritize large customers, which happen to be makers of AI servers. Chen does not expect capacity to swing back to PCs, smartphones, and other consumer devices in 2026, which will affect the prices of these devices.
The effects are clear to see. Enthusiasts are seeing RAM prices for custom-built PCs increase by orders of magnitude week on week, with 64GB of DDR5 RAM now costing more than a PS5 in some cases. This week's Black Friday and Cyber Monday RAM deals might be the last chance to buy RAM before prices skyrocket even further.
