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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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U

Uzzy

Member
Apparently the UK Government is going to release some position papers, on their positions regarding the customs union and the Irish border, over the next few weeks.

Theresa May is to lift the veil of secrecy around the UK’s Brexit negotiations in the coming weeks, with the publication of key position papers on issues such as Northern Ireland and the customs union.

No 10 confirmed on Monday that a series of policy documents would be made public in an apparent attempt to head off criticism of the UK for failing to tell the EU what it wanted and being insufficiently prepared for talks with Brussels.

Businesses have long been pressing for more clarity on the UK’s proposals for replacing the customs union, which allows easy transfer of goods across the borders of EU member states.

May has so far only said she wants to leave the customs union in order to strike free trade deals with other countries and achieve “frictionless trade”, but the UK is expected to seek to replicate the current arrangements as closely as possible during a transitional period at least.

The issue of Northern Ireland is also pressing for UK negotiators, as Brussels has said it would not proceed to the next stage of talks on the future relationship between the EU and Britain until progress had been made on resolving the border with the Republic of Ireland, as well as agreeing a financial settlement and the status of EU nationals.
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It might have been an idea to have all these policies ready before triggering Article 50, but hey, at least we've only wasted four months. What's another month wasted ontop of that?
 
X

Xando

Member
Uzzy said:
Apparently the UK Government is going to release some position papers, on their positions regarding the customs union and the Irish border, over the next few weeks.



It might have been an idea to have all these policies ready before triggering Article 50, but hey, at least we've only wasted four months. What's another month wasted ontop of that?
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I can't wait to read the proposals.

Bets on them being completely unrealistic or is it going to be anything realistic?
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Xando said:
I can't wait to read the proposals.

Bets on them being completely unrealistic or is it going to be anything realistic?
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As I understand it, they're planning on a technological solution to the Irish Border question, that'll allow free movement between Northern Ireland and Ireland, without allowing for free movement between Northern Ireland and the rest of the EU. That'll certainly be something to see.
 
X

Xando

Member
Uzzy said:
As I understand it, they're planning on a technological solution to the Irish Border question, that'll allow free movement between Northern Ireland and Ireland, without allowing for free movement between Northern Ireland and the rest of the EU. That'll certainly be something to see.
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Yeah i've read about this which of course is nonsense since people will just cross the border on the side roads where there no cameras.

Also Varadkar doesn't seem to be convinced.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...varadkar-ireland-not-design-border-brexiteers
 
B

Bony Manifesto

Member
Uzzy said:
As I understand it, they're planning on a technological solution to the Irish Border question, that'll allow free movement between Northern Ireland and Ireland, without allowing for free movement between Northern Ireland and the rest of the EU. That'll certainly be something to see.
Click to expand...

I'm predicting:
IDWzKdu.png
Click to expand...
 
T

theaface

Member
Today in your TALPG news update...

Call for new political party to stop Brexit 'catastrophe'

The former chief of staff to the Brexit Secretary is calling for a new political movement to oppose Britain's exit from the EU, branding it a "catastrophe".
Click to expand...

Until May, Mr Chapman had a privileged view into Britain's exit preparations.

He ran the office of Brexit Secretary and chief negotiator David Davis for nearly a year after the June 2016 EU referendum.
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C

CyclopsRock

Member
TimmmV said:
It's my understanding that there are pretty big differences between whisky depending on geography though - I mean, I don't know much about whisky but still know there is a difference between like American stuff like Bourbon, and then even whisky from Scotland, Ireland, or Japan. So don't really mind the EU (or whoever) insisting on certain standards for Whisky brewed inside it to preserve the brand as distinct from others
even though it is all absolutely disgusting regardless of where in the world it comes from

I can't see how you can accept that allowing sparkling wine made with grapes from (say) southern Italy not be labelled as Champagne, as it will protect the brand - but think its dumb to make the distinction between whether a whisky is brewed 3 times as long as the minimum standard in the US. That seems a pretty reasonable distinction to me.
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Because "champagne" has a reputation for quality to be protected. Whiskey doesn't. Some whiskies do, individual brands. Scotch, as a distinct "brand" does, too. My point re: the cheap shitty whiskey is that there is already stuff made within the EU that satisfies the guidelines that's absolute paint stripper. So what's being protected here? If you could buy a bottle of cheap old piss champagne for £4 I'd be making the same argument for that. But you can't, which is rather the point.

Edit: The clarify, the existing regulations successfully preserve the reputation of champagne and do not successfully preserve the reputation of whiskey.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
According to the Times, Ministers are looking at a customs border between Northern Ireland and ROI.

Ministers are preparing to rebuff the Irish government and insist on the need for a customs border between the north and south of the island after Brexit.

In a further sign of division between London and Dublin, the government is expected to rule out demands by the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, for ministers to consider alternatives to their current approach to the border.

Mr Varadkar has publicly called for Theresa May to consider staying in the EU customs union after Brexit and Simon Coveney, the foreign minister, has privately urged the London government to consider a new customs border in the Irish Sea to maintain free movement across Ireland itself.

A formal position paper to be published next week by the government is understood to state, however, that ministers are sticking with their current plan for a “light touch” customs border using technology and spot checks to police the flow of goods between the two countries.

It will also say that the kind of border that will be needed between the north and south of Ireland will depend on the overall deal that the UK can strike with the EU.
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K

killer_clank

Member
I hate the way the government simply get out of explaining any and all Brexit challenges with saying we will use "technology", with 0 evidence that they know what this technology actually is or whether they've even started to procure it, given how tight the deadlines are
 
J

JonnyDBrit

Member
killer_clank said:
I hate the way the government simply get out of explaining any and all Brexit challenges with saying we will use "technology", with 0 evidence that they know what this technology actually is or whether they've even started to procure it, given how tight the deadlines are
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May and her government seem to be of the understanding that anything is possible through SCIENCE; hence also their position with regards to somehow balancing private protections against the ability of the government to access your messages. It doesn't matter whether or not it's actually possible, they simply believe it already is and act accordingly.
 
D

daviyoung

Banned
The Tories know that technology confuses and angers their core voter base. They don't know how it works, they don't want to know how it works. It's why you get your granny an iPad and not an Asus Transformer.

"We have the technology"

Well ok then, say no more.
 
X

Xando

Member
Uzzy said:
According to the Times, Ministers are looking at a customs border between Northern Ireland and ROI.
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I guess it's going to come down to the two options of either a border between NI and ROI (most likely i think) or some kind of special agreement that lets NI in the customs union (Unlikely to get agreed by Westminster but favoured by the EU).

Should make a deal that keeps NI in the customs union and in return gets Gibraltar to stay in the customs union
 
P

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Xando said:
some kind of special agreement that lets NI in the customs union (Unlikely to get agreed by Westminster but favoured by the EU).
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That's a backdoor for the UK having access to the single market, or erecting a huge market barrier between different parts of the UK. So that's not a workable suggestion. Never was.
 
L

Lucreto

Member
If a hard border does appear I think the UK should consider giving the Irish people the option of getting duel citizenship.

The people in Northern Ireland have the option of dual citizenship and lots of people have taken advantage since Brexit. Extending the option to the Republic for people living in the South and working in the North would make things easier.
 
X

Xando

Member
EleventhHourSuperpower said:
That's a backdoor for the UK having access to the single market, or erecting a huge market barrier between different parts of the UK. So that's not a workable suggestion. Never was.
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Well they need to think of something because right now the only workable solution is a hard border unless the UK finally starts to see their mistake and reverse brexit or atleast join EEA
 
P

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Xando said:
Well they need to think of something because right now the only workable solution is a hard border unless the UK finally starts to see their mistake and reverse brexit or atleast join EEA
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Yes, the only options may be remaining in the EEA and Customs Union to keep things fluid, or a hard border.

Edit: The EU cannot ask the UK to put up a full economic border within itself and actually expect that to happen.
 
B

Blue Lou

Member
The Telegraph are reporting that Aaron Banks' "Bad boys of Brexit" is being developed into film or series.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...e-snapped-hollywood-studio-set-sign-60m-deal/


Obviously it's from the point of view of an American.

The story is told from the point of view of Gerry Gunster, a US pollster who advised the Leave.EU campaign, and tells how Mr Farage and Mr Banks won against the odds and ended up campaigning for Donald Trump's successful campaign in the US presidential election.
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K

kmag

Member
So the UK's idea for a transition is not to have a transition.

If you're out of the Customs Union and out of the Single Market, there's no transition. There's no real existing analogue to either (there's the EEA for the single market but no Customs union analogue and the WTO only allows an interim agreement as a stepping stone towards the end destination; i.e it would allow a CU type agreement if it led to a CU type agreement but the UK isn't seeking a CU type agreement as an endpoint)

Unless, I missed all the building work at Dover last week, the UK simply won't be in position to handle post CU customs in 2019.
 
X

Xando

Member
I‘d post more but i‘m on mobile

Britain will seek to continue its current customs arrangements with the EU for several years after Brexit, in a victory for supporters of a smooth transition.

A government paper to be published on Tuesday makes clear that the UK wants to remain in a customs union with the EU for at least the estimated three years of transition after Britain’s 2019 exit.

“It should look and feel the same for business,” said one Whitehall official.

The UK government also sets out two options for after the transition period: either “a new customs partnership . . . which would negate the need for a customs border between the UK and the EU”, or a new “highly streamlined customs arrangement”.
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More here
https://www.ft.com/content/b58ca3b6-811c-11e7-a4ce-15b2513cb3ff

So FoM until atleast 2022.

Can’t wait for the outcry of betrayal from UKIP
 
X

Xando

Member
The UK paper will say the government is optimistic that the EU will allow trade secretary Liam Fox to negotiate new trade deals during the transition.
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This will be a no go for the EU. Might aswell scrap the whole idea.
 
G

Gurgelhals

Member
It's nice to want things, I guess.

What I'll never understand is this: How can it be that, even after a year into the whole shitshow, UK politicians are still squabbling among themselves about what they want and what they don't want, while remaining completely oblivious to the fact that all of this back and forth matters preciously little considering that it takes only one of the remaining 27 EU member states to say no to whatever deal or agreement they envision for it to fall apart completely and send them back to square one?
 
P

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Think of it this way, it'll be much harder to crash out of the EU entirely without a deal after 10 more years of integration than it is right now.

The EU is not going to "allow" new trade deals to be negotiated in the interim and it will result in penalties, as they're protecting their own interests And then there's needing unanimous agreement out of 27 governments. All this means the withdrawal mechanism is intended to make things a living hell for any nation leaving.

So from that perspective, reverting to WTO rules in 2019 is a better time than 2029.

There's no way that some small country isn't going to veto it, just look at CETA. That was a much less acrimonious negotiation and it still needs to be ratified by each member state's parliament. We'll see.
 
K

kmag

Member
A temporary CU is illegal under WTO rules (GATT Article XXIV:5) unless

a) it reduces regulations of commerce (which would seem to be impossible given the current situation)
and
b) it is a clear move towards an end agreement which also reduces regulations of commerce.

5. Accordingly, the provisions of this Agreement shall not prevent, as between the territories of contracting parties, the formation of a customs union or of a free-trade area or the adoption of an interim agreement necessary for the formation of a customs union or of a free-trade area; Provided that:
(a) with respect to a customs union, or an interim agreement leading to the formation of a customs union, the duties and other regulations of commerce imposed at the institution of any such union or interim agreement in respect of trade with contracting parties not parties to such union or agreement shall not on the whole be higher or more restrictive than the general incidence of the duties and regulations of commerce applicable in the constituent territories prior to the formation of such union or the adoption of such interim agreement, as the case may be;
(b) with respect to a free-trade area, or an interim agreement leading to the formation of a free-trade area, the duties and other regulations of commerce maintained in each of the constituent territories and applicable at the formation of such free-trade area or the adoption of such interim agreement to the trade of contracting parties not included in such area or not parties to such agreement shall not be higher or more restrictive than the corresponding duties and other regulations of commerce existing in the same constituent territories prior to the formation of the free-trade area, or interim agreement, as
the case may be; and
(c) any interim agreement referred to in sub-paragraphs (a) and (b) shall include a plan and schedule for the formation of such a customs union or of such a free-trade area within a reasonable length of time.
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Any proposed temporary deal does not meet GATT because all the ultimate endpoints represent additional regulation and complexity.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Rather than temporary membership of the customs union, we're going to be temporary members of a temporary customs union. Just waiting for the proposal to be temporary members of a temporary single market now.
 
T

theaface

Member
Britain will seek to continue its current customs arrangements with the EU for several years after Brexit, in a victory for supporters of a smooth transition.
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Hardly. Running off a cliff edge is still running off a cliff edge, whether your run up is ten paces or ten miles. Blindly proclaiming optimism that 'things will be fine' counts for jack shit when we still end up outside of the SM and CU. Ugh, they can't keep getting away with it.
 
J

JonnyDBrit

Member
Seems like our Brexit strategy right now is to employ Truthiness. Say something long enough and hope it somehow becomes true because of that.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
It strike anyone else as weird that the position paper is a total of 16 pages long? It's only 13 if you exclude the covers and the preamble. That seems slight for a matter as important as this.
 
jufonuk

jufonuk

not tag worthy
I've brexited... from the UK. I've moved to France now with the wife and kids

For the moment and foreseeable future I am still working in the UK on a reduced shift pattern.

Gotta get in with learning french and see how it goes.

Feels good man.
 
R

Royal_Phalanx

Member
Nice one. Applying for junior web developer jobs everywhere in the EU even though I have no idea if I'm ready or not for a job doing that. I have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Hopefully I can do my own permanent brexit in 2018.
 
U

Uzzy

Member
jelly said:
I still don't get the UK stance. It's a disaster at worst, why bother at best. Brexit is pointless, stop it.
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Maybe it's a cunning plan to confuse the EU negotiators enough that they hurt themselves in their confusion and accidentally agree to everything we want. Or something.

I noticed that Davis said he wouldn't be able to put forward a figure for any financial commitments in October or November. So I guess the whole customs union discussions will have to wait a while longer.
 
jufonuk

jufonuk

not tag worthy
Uzzy said:
Maybe it's a cunning plan to confuse the EU negotiators enough that they hurt themselves in their confusion and accidentally agree to everything we want. Or something.

I noticed that Davis said he wouldn't be able to put forward a figure for any financial commitments in October or November. So I guess the whole customs union discussions will have to wait a while longer.
Click to expand...

They are going to compromise some kind of deal , Norway type thing and spin it to sound like a win for all the sun/mail readers.

Hard Brexit isn't going to happen.
 
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