So why us lawless abortion-loving commies on NeoGAF debate the merits of #ImWithHer and #FeelTheBern, there is a new, lingering conversation that's become even more important -- downticket races. For those that don't understand, America elects its executive on a different slate than its legislature. We also have two co-equal branches of our legislature.
Whomever the Democratic nominee is, she or he will need the support of the House and the Senate to win. I've decided to help out by posting a series of topics on who to vote for if you're a left-leaning person. Along with my ratings of the likelihood of a Democratic (or left-leaning independent's) chances of winning.
I think it's super important that we need to give to these races and mobilize for them as much as Hillary or Bernie. I recommend everyone giving, and if you live in any of these states, facebookbanking or whatever for these candidates, as well as canvassing for them. I will be doing so for Kamala.
ACTBLUE
If you've never used ActBlue, you need to. It's a super easy tool where you can just put in all of your information, and you can search different races to give to. It's only for Democratic candidates and it great for micro-donations. Just for ease, I would recommend it.
https://secure.actblue.com/
SENATE
Today, we are going to start with the Senate. Democrats currently hold 46 seats in the Senate (two Independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King both caucus with the Democrats). In order to win back the Senate, Democrats need either 4 seats (if they win the presidency) or 5 seats (if they lose).
Generally, this is a very good year for Democrats. They DNC has done a pretty amazing job recruiting key candidates, minus one or two races. On the other hand, there are many races where Republicans dropped the ball (Colorado, for one) and it just won't be a race.
Here is what Larry Sabato's UVA Center for Politics thinks about the race:
My ratings:
TIER 1: LIKELY DEMOCRAT NO MATTER WHAT
These are races that, no matter who is at the top of the ticket (say Hillary is in jail and Bernie chokes on a sandwich and Kanye is the Democratic nominee against Paul Ryan) are likely to flip to Democrats because of the makeup of the states and candidates.
TAMMY DUCKWORTH
State: Illinois
Challenger: Sen. Mark Kirk
Website: http://tammyduckworth.com/
ActBlue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/tammy-duckworth-3
Primary Date: Already happened, Duckworth is the Democratic nominee for November
Write up: Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Mark Kirk. Kirk is probably the most vulnerable Senator in any race after winning a fluke win in 2010. Kirk is generally one of the most moderate members of the Republican Senate caucus, but it won't matter. Illinois is a heavily Democratic state, and especially in a presidential election, there's little that Kirk can do. Duckworth is a fantastic candidate (Iraq War vet, lost her legs in Iraq, solidly liberal, great speaker) and is favored to win by a large margin.
I actually haven't given to Tammy because this is going to be a rout no matter what.
RUSS FEINGOLD
State: Wisconsin
Challenger: Sen. Ron Johnson
Website: russfeingold.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/russ-feingold-3
Primary Date: August 9, 2016
Write up: After losing in 2010, progressive hero Russ Feingold is back to challenge Tea Party-backed Ron Johnson in a rematch of his 2010 loss. Polling has shown Feingold consistently above Johnson, and for good reason: Why Wisconsin isn't as Democratic-leaning as Illinois, Johnson is one of the more conservative members of the Senate. He's done nothing to moderate his image, acts more like a Senator from Missouri than Wisconsin, and has been vocally frustrated about his role in the Senate. It's very likely that Feingold wins and gives Wisconsin delegates two of the most progressive members of the US Senate (along with Tammy Baldwin).
LORETTA SANCHEZ VS. KAMALA HARRIS
State: California
Challenger: OPEN
Websites: www.kamalaharris.org/
www.loretta.org/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/kamala-harris-3
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/loretta-sanchez-2
Primary Date: June 7, 2016
Write up: First things first: Either of these two people are going to be the next Senator from California. California is a deep blue state (and getting bluer) and the race does not have a credible Republican challenger.
What's interesting about this race is that California has a jungle primary. Every single candidate will be on the ballot in June. The top two challengers will then face off in November. It's quite possible that this race could be Kamala vs. Loretta in November! Loretta is hoping to get enough Republican support (she's a Blue Dog Democrat) in November to beat Kamala.
Even if that happens, it's unlikely that Loretta will win. Kamala is heavily favored. Part of me is a little bummed by this -- almost every statewide office in California is held by NorCal, with little-to-no Los Angeles representation. Since Harry Waxman retired, our lone congressman of note is Adam Schiff (my congressman). I would love a Los Angeles or SoCal person in the Senate, but Loretta is way too conservative for such a deep blue state.
Also it's super likely that Kamala is going to run for president in 2024, so get ready to hear a lot more about her.
CHRIS VAN HOLLENVS. DONNA EDWARDS
State: Maryland
Challenger: Kathy Szeliga
Website: vanhollen.org/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/chris-van-hollen-1
Primary Date: April 26, 2016
Write up: Same stuff as California. Whoever wins here will be the next Senator from Maryland.
Chris Van Hollen was a member of the leadership team in the House, so it's a little interesting that he decided to jump into the race. Edwards is trying to portray herself as more progressive, but it's a biiit bullshit. Both Van Hollen and Edwards are extremely progressive, and Edwards has been trying to attack him on statements of potential compromises during budget negotiations with House Republicans (these are actually a bit deceiving, since he also said that some entitlement reforms are off the table). The truth is that there is little policy difference between the two of them and so both are trying to scramble to find something that differentiates them.
I gave to Edwards. Van Hollen will probably always be Some Guy in the Senate, while Donna Edwards has the potential to be the new face of the Democratic party in terms of people running for office in 2024
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE SENATE, WRITE UP TO COME
SEN. MICHAEL BENNET - INCUMBENT
State: Colorado
Challenger: TBD
Website: www.bennetforcolorado.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/michael-bennet-1
Primary Date: June 28, 2016
This is a likely-blue state, not as solid as the other races above. Still, Bennet was able to win in the Tea Party wave of 2010, is a solid Senator, and more importantly, Republicans cannot find one credible challenger one of their two chances to play offensive this year. A mess!!
TIER 2: TRUE TOSS UP
These are states that are likely to be tossups. This can change as the year goes on, but as of now, these are the most important states that will likely decide the race.
PATRICK MURPHY VS. ALAN GRAYSON
State: Florida
Challenger: OPEN SEAT
Websites: www.murphyforflorida.com/
senatorwithguts.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/patrick-murphy-5
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/alan-grayson-1
Primary Date: August 30, 2016
Write up: This is one of the most interesting primaries that's going to happen in what will be one of the most important races in the country.
A lot of this race is going to through the prism of the national race. Grayson is often viewed as more of a progressive warrior who's brash and says what's on his mind. His critics often decry him as an asshole who's scandal-prone and can often get caught with his foot in his mouth. Also his girlfriend is running for his seat and idk it's all a bit weird. He endorsed Bernie.
On the other hand, Patrick Murphy is a squeaky-clean young congressman from an R-leaning state that ousted asshole Allen West and won huge in 2014 despite an R wave year. A lot of people see him as a rising star in the party that could be a contender in 2024. His critics are correct that he's much more moderate and used to be a Republican until 2011 (he credits the Tea Party movement with motivation his changes). He endorsed Hillary.
Personally, I'm giving to Murphy for the sole reason that this is a really, really key state and race, and I think Murphy has been fine in terms of his district (and state) that is as swingy as you can get. My worry about Grayson is that he's got a lot of skeletons in his closet and could end up costing the Democrats the Senate if he majorly fucks up. I don't really love Murphy, but Grayson scares me (he's also not super progressive -- he just said something good about health care).
The Republican side is a mess and I have no idea who gets the nomination.
MAGGIE HASSAN
State: New Hampshire
Challenger: Sen. Kelly Ayotte
Website: www.maggiehassan.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/maggie-hassan-4
Primary Date: September 13, 2016
Write up: This will be the election of the year. New Hampshire is still the only state in New England where Republicans still perform well (thought it has been slightly trending more blue over time).
The three "best" politicians in New Hampshire (I mean this as in their strength as candidates) are Kelly Ayotte, Maggie Hassan, and Jeanne Shaheen. Ayotte and Shaheen are the current Senate delegation, while Hassan is the current governor who is challenging Ayotte. It should be fascinating to see what happens here, since both candidates are so strong.
Whatever happens, this will be a tight race. I would really recommend giving to Maggie. She may not be as solidly liberal as Shaheen, but taking out Ayotte would be a huge blow to Republicans since she's seen as Vice Presidential candidate. It would destroy any future ambitions she had for office, the same way Trump destroyed Rubio.
TED STRICKLAND
State: Ohio
Challenger: Sen. Rob Portman
Website: www.tedstrickland.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/ted-strickland-4
Primary Date: Already happened, Strickland is the Democratic nominee for November
Write up: Another super tight race. Portman is well-liked by Beltway-types for his aggressive fundraising (he has $12 mil in the bank) and the fact that he's one of the few GOP Senators who supports gay marriage (his son is gay). Strickland is the former Governor of Ohio who was narrowly defeated by Kasich in the Tea Party wave of 2010.
Most polls have shown a slight edge to Strickland, and that makes sense: one of the side effects of Portman being an excessive fundraiser is that he's actually pretty unknown by his state and has mediocre favorables. Expect this race to tighten, but also be solely decided by who's at the top of the ticket. If it's Hillary versus Trump or Cruz, I think it would be significant unlikely that Portman would be able to keep his seat.
CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO
State: Nevada
Challenger: OPEN
Website: catherinecortezmasto.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/catherine-cortez-masto-1
Primary Date: June 14, 2016
Write up: King Harry Reid handpicked former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto as his successor for his seat. Cortez Masto is a favorite of DC types who think she's extremely impressive as a person and candidate.
Nevada is a slight Democratic leaning state, and especially in a presidential year, it's likely that Cortez Masto will win the seat. Her challenger is likely to be the GOP choice of Rep. Joe Heck, but Sharron Angle is running again. If Angle wins, Cortez Masto will be the Senator. Even if Heck wins, I would give a slight edge to Cortez Masto, but it'll be close.
Cortez Masto would also be the first Latina in the Senate, which is awesome.
KATIE MCGINTYVS. JOE SESTAK VS. JOHN FETTERMAN
State: Pennsylvania
Challenger: Sen. Pat Toomey
Website: katiemcginty.com
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/katie-mcginty-1
Primary Date: April 26, 2016
Write up: Let me start by saying I hate this race. This should be an easy one for Democrats, but we weren't able to put up a great challenger to Toomey.
McGinty is establishment Dem's candidate of choice. She works in the Wolf administration, but also did poorly in the Dem primary for governor in 2014. They've poured a ton of money into her candidacy, but she does slightly worse than Sestak in polls against Toomey.
Sestak (barely) lost to Toomey in 2010, but he ran a really shitty campaign and is generally seen as someone who doesn't take advice well from DC Dems. DC Dems hate him for reasons that I think are petty and honestly kind of irresponsible since this is a key race and he's likely to be the nominee at this point.
Fetterman is a mayor of a small Pittsburgh working-class town that is known to be invested in his community, but is generally not viewed as a serious challenger to McGinty or Sestak. He's endorsed Bernie Sanders for president. There also is a brewing scandal about how he owes thousands of unpaid taxes, so I don't know if he's someone you want to send in the general.
I honestly no preference here, but I think Sestak will win the primary. And then, I dunno. Could go either way.
KATIE McGINTY IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR SENATE. WRITE UP TO COME LATER
TIER 3: RACES TO WATCH
These are races that are probably Republican leaning at the moment, but with Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket (especially Trump), it's likely that these could be very close.
Winning these races would be paramount towards cushioning a majority going in 2018 where it's likely Democrats will lose a few seats.
DEBORAH ROSS
State: North Carolina
Challenger: Sen. Richard Burr, sir.
Website: www.deborahross.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/deborah-ross-4
Primary Date: Primary Date: Already happened, Ross is the Democratic nominee for November
Write up: This is a race that Democrats struggled for a while to find a legitimate candidate against two-term Burr. They got their candidate of choice in Deborah Ross, who dominated the primary. What's interesting is that polling in North Carolina consistently shows Ross (who is largely unknown to the state at large) within 5 points of Burr. That's the same margin that Elizabeth Dole had above Kay Hagan at this point in the race in 2008.
Ross is extremely progressive (she worked for the ACLU, among other qualifications) and North Carolina is an emerging swing state. After the devastating loss of Kay Hagan in 2014, it'd be nice to get another solid progressive from NC in the Senate.
Of all the races that I'm about to talk about, I think Ross has the biggest chance of pulling a Hagan in 2016 and winning.
ANN KIRKPATRICK
State: Arizona
Challenger: Sen. John McCain, if he wins his primary
Website: www.kirkpatrickforsenate.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/ann-kirkpatrick-5
Primary Date: August 30, 2016
Write up: A few things are interesting here. If Trump or Cruz are at the top of the ticket, I think it's likely that Arizona will be a close state for Hillary. That probably means that Hillary's already won the election if we're contesting Arizona, but it's an emerging swing state where Trump could motivate huge Latino registration efforts (that are already underway).
John McCain has never really had a legitimate challenger since he was first elected, so Arizona getting a legitimate choice is pretty rad. Kirkpatrick represents an R-leaning district and won in 2014 with huge support from Native American communities, so she's a strong contender. Unfortunately, she's a bit awkward (Awkward Ann. Sad!) and she's not quite as strong as a Kyrsten Sinema (who I'm guessing is watching the demographic crystal ball and will run in 2018 against Flake). Still, I think this could be close.
If McCain somehow loses his primary against State Sen. Kelli Ward, Kirkpatrick would be the favorite.
JASON KANDER
State: Missouri
Challenger: Sen. Roy Blunt
Website: www.jasonkander.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/jason-kander-3
Primary Date: August 2, 2016
Write up: This one is pretty easy. If Trump is at the top of the ticket, Kander could win. If Cruz is at the top of the ticket, Blunt will be the heavy favorite.
Democrats are impressed with Kander's fundraising (sure), but Missouri is an R-leaning state that will likely go for Cruz. DC Dems believe that there are some scandals in Blunt's closet, so if there is something there, maybe! Polls generally have this as tight, but I'm a little suspicious until we get more polling.
ROB HOGG VS. PATTY JUDGE
State: Iowa
Challenger: Sen. Chuck Grassley
Website: www.robhogg.org/
www.pattyjudgeforiowa.com/
Act Blue Primary Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/rob-hogg-for-u-s--senate-1
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/patty-judge-for-iowa-1
Write up: I honestly don't know much about this race because there wasn't supposed to be a race. Grassley is one of the most popular Senators in the country from a pre-partisan era. He was supposed to easily win.
That was before Scalia's death and the nomination of Garland. Iowa Democrats see Grassley as chair of the judiciary committee as an opening for them to attack Grassley as an obstructionist who's just politics as usual. While local Dems have lined up behind Rob Hogg, national Dems much prefer Patty Judge and see her an exciting candidate who could really give Grassley a run. I don't expect this to be a race, but we'll see.
BARON HILL
State: Indiana
Challenger: OPEN
Website: www.baronhillforindiana.com
Act Blue Primary Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/baron-hill-4
Primary Date: May 3, 2016
Write up: Baron Hill is a poor fundraiser who is an unimpressive candidate. The only reason this is even here is because Indiana is R+5 and Dems can sometime win, it's a high-turnout presidential year, this is an open seat and Trump and/or Cruz could complicate things. Otherwise, Hill is a wet fart.
That's it! If you liked this, I may do this for key House and Gubernatorial races, though the House is more of a bear. There are some races that could become interesting -- Kentucky, Georgia, and Louisiana, but at this point, they are not.
Whomever the Democratic nominee is, she or he will need the support of the House and the Senate to win. I've decided to help out by posting a series of topics on who to vote for if you're a left-leaning person. Along with my ratings of the likelihood of a Democratic (or left-leaning independent's) chances of winning.
I think it's super important that we need to give to these races and mobilize for them as much as Hillary or Bernie. I recommend everyone giving, and if you live in any of these states, facebookbanking or whatever for these candidates, as well as canvassing for them. I will be doing so for Kamala.
ACTBLUE
If you've never used ActBlue, you need to. It's a super easy tool where you can just put in all of your information, and you can search different races to give to. It's only for Democratic candidates and it great for micro-donations. Just for ease, I would recommend it.
https://secure.actblue.com/
SENATE
Today, we are going to start with the Senate. Democrats currently hold 46 seats in the Senate (two Independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King both caucus with the Democrats). In order to win back the Senate, Democrats need either 4 seats (if they win the presidency) or 5 seats (if they lose).
Generally, this is a very good year for Democrats. They DNC has done a pretty amazing job recruiting key candidates, minus one or two races. On the other hand, there are many races where Republicans dropped the ball (Colorado, for one) and it just won't be a race.
Here is what Larry Sabato's UVA Center for Politics thinks about the race:
My ratings:
TIER 1: LIKELY DEMOCRAT NO MATTER WHAT
These are races that, no matter who is at the top of the ticket (say Hillary is in jail and Bernie chokes on a sandwich and Kanye is the Democratic nominee against Paul Ryan) are likely to flip to Democrats because of the makeup of the states and candidates.
TAMMY DUCKWORTH
State: Illinois
Challenger: Sen. Mark Kirk
Website: http://tammyduckworth.com/
ActBlue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/tammy-duckworth-3
Primary Date: Already happened, Duckworth is the Democratic nominee for November
Write up: Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Mark Kirk. Kirk is probably the most vulnerable Senator in any race after winning a fluke win in 2010. Kirk is generally one of the most moderate members of the Republican Senate caucus, but it won't matter. Illinois is a heavily Democratic state, and especially in a presidential election, there's little that Kirk can do. Duckworth is a fantastic candidate (Iraq War vet, lost her legs in Iraq, solidly liberal, great speaker) and is favored to win by a large margin.
I actually haven't given to Tammy because this is going to be a rout no matter what.
RUSS FEINGOLD
State: Wisconsin
Challenger: Sen. Ron Johnson
Website: russfeingold.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/russ-feingold-3
Primary Date: August 9, 2016
Write up: After losing in 2010, progressive hero Russ Feingold is back to challenge Tea Party-backed Ron Johnson in a rematch of his 2010 loss. Polling has shown Feingold consistently above Johnson, and for good reason: Why Wisconsin isn't as Democratic-leaning as Illinois, Johnson is one of the more conservative members of the Senate. He's done nothing to moderate his image, acts more like a Senator from Missouri than Wisconsin, and has been vocally frustrated about his role in the Senate. It's very likely that Feingold wins and gives Wisconsin delegates two of the most progressive members of the US Senate (along with Tammy Baldwin).
LORETTA SANCHEZ VS. KAMALA HARRIS
State: California
Challenger: OPEN
Websites: www.kamalaharris.org/
www.loretta.org/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/kamala-harris-3
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/loretta-sanchez-2
Primary Date: June 7, 2016
Write up: First things first: Either of these two people are going to be the next Senator from California. California is a deep blue state (and getting bluer) and the race does not have a credible Republican challenger.
What's interesting about this race is that California has a jungle primary. Every single candidate will be on the ballot in June. The top two challengers will then face off in November. It's quite possible that this race could be Kamala vs. Loretta in November! Loretta is hoping to get enough Republican support (she's a Blue Dog Democrat) in November to beat Kamala.
Even if that happens, it's unlikely that Loretta will win. Kamala is heavily favored. Part of me is a little bummed by this -- almost every statewide office in California is held by NorCal, with little-to-no Los Angeles representation. Since Harry Waxman retired, our lone congressman of note is Adam Schiff (my congressman). I would love a Los Angeles or SoCal person in the Senate, but Loretta is way too conservative for such a deep blue state.
Also it's super likely that Kamala is going to run for president in 2024, so get ready to hear a lot more about her.
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN
State: Maryland
Challenger: Kathy Szeliga
Website: vanhollen.org/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/chris-van-hollen-1
Primary Date: April 26, 2016
Chris Van Hollen was a member of the leadership team in the House, so it's a little interesting that he decided to jump into the race. Edwards is trying to portray herself as more progressive, but it's a biiit bullshit. Both Van Hollen and Edwards are extremely progressive, and Edwards has been trying to attack him on statements of potential compromises during budget negotiations with House Republicans (these are actually a bit deceiving, since he also said that some entitlement reforms are off the table). The truth is that there is little policy difference between the two of them and so both are trying to scramble to find something that differentiates them.
I gave to Edwards. Van Hollen will probably always be Some Guy in the Senate, while Donna Edwards has the potential to be the new face of the Democratic party in terms of people running for office in 2024
CHRIS VAN HOLLEN IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR THE SENATE, WRITE UP TO COME
SEN. MICHAEL BENNET - INCUMBENT
State: Colorado
Challenger: TBD
Website: www.bennetforcolorado.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/michael-bennet-1
Primary Date: June 28, 2016
This is a likely-blue state, not as solid as the other races above. Still, Bennet was able to win in the Tea Party wave of 2010, is a solid Senator, and more importantly, Republicans cannot find one credible challenger one of their two chances to play offensive this year. A mess!!
TIER 2: TRUE TOSS UP
These are states that are likely to be tossups. This can change as the year goes on, but as of now, these are the most important states that will likely decide the race.
PATRICK MURPHY VS. ALAN GRAYSON
State: Florida
Challenger: OPEN SEAT
Websites: www.murphyforflorida.com/
senatorwithguts.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/patrick-murphy-5
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/alan-grayson-1
Primary Date: August 30, 2016
Write up: This is one of the most interesting primaries that's going to happen in what will be one of the most important races in the country.
A lot of this race is going to through the prism of the national race. Grayson is often viewed as more of a progressive warrior who's brash and says what's on his mind. His critics often decry him as an asshole who's scandal-prone and can often get caught with his foot in his mouth. Also his girlfriend is running for his seat and idk it's all a bit weird. He endorsed Bernie.
On the other hand, Patrick Murphy is a squeaky-clean young congressman from an R-leaning state that ousted asshole Allen West and won huge in 2014 despite an R wave year. A lot of people see him as a rising star in the party that could be a contender in 2024. His critics are correct that he's much more moderate and used to be a Republican until 2011 (he credits the Tea Party movement with motivation his changes). He endorsed Hillary.
Personally, I'm giving to Murphy for the sole reason that this is a really, really key state and race, and I think Murphy has been fine in terms of his district (and state) that is as swingy as you can get. My worry about Grayson is that he's got a lot of skeletons in his closet and could end up costing the Democrats the Senate if he majorly fucks up. I don't really love Murphy, but Grayson scares me (he's also not super progressive -- he just said something good about health care).
The Republican side is a mess and I have no idea who gets the nomination.
MAGGIE HASSAN
State: New Hampshire
Challenger: Sen. Kelly Ayotte
Website: www.maggiehassan.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/maggie-hassan-4
Primary Date: September 13, 2016
Write up: This will be the election of the year. New Hampshire is still the only state in New England where Republicans still perform well (thought it has been slightly trending more blue over time).
The three "best" politicians in New Hampshire (I mean this as in their strength as candidates) are Kelly Ayotte, Maggie Hassan, and Jeanne Shaheen. Ayotte and Shaheen are the current Senate delegation, while Hassan is the current governor who is challenging Ayotte. It should be fascinating to see what happens here, since both candidates are so strong.
Whatever happens, this will be a tight race. I would really recommend giving to Maggie. She may not be as solidly liberal as Shaheen, but taking out Ayotte would be a huge blow to Republicans since she's seen as Vice Presidential candidate. It would destroy any future ambitions she had for office, the same way Trump destroyed Rubio.
TED STRICKLAND
State: Ohio
Challenger: Sen. Rob Portman
Website: www.tedstrickland.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/ted-strickland-4
Primary Date: Already happened, Strickland is the Democratic nominee for November
Write up: Another super tight race. Portman is well-liked by Beltway-types for his aggressive fundraising (he has $12 mil in the bank) and the fact that he's one of the few GOP Senators who supports gay marriage (his son is gay). Strickland is the former Governor of Ohio who was narrowly defeated by Kasich in the Tea Party wave of 2010.
Most polls have shown a slight edge to Strickland, and that makes sense: one of the side effects of Portman being an excessive fundraiser is that he's actually pretty unknown by his state and has mediocre favorables. Expect this race to tighten, but also be solely decided by who's at the top of the ticket. If it's Hillary versus Trump or Cruz, I think it would be significant unlikely that Portman would be able to keep his seat.
CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO
State: Nevada
Challenger: OPEN
Website: catherinecortezmasto.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/catherine-cortez-masto-1
Primary Date: June 14, 2016
Write up: King Harry Reid handpicked former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto as his successor for his seat. Cortez Masto is a favorite of DC types who think she's extremely impressive as a person and candidate.
Nevada is a slight Democratic leaning state, and especially in a presidential year, it's likely that Cortez Masto will win the seat. Her challenger is likely to be the GOP choice of Rep. Joe Heck, but Sharron Angle is running again. If Angle wins, Cortez Masto will be the Senator. Even if Heck wins, I would give a slight edge to Cortez Masto, but it'll be close.
Cortez Masto would also be the first Latina in the Senate, which is awesome.
KATIE MCGINTY
State: Pennsylvania
Challenger: Sen. Pat Toomey
Website: katiemcginty.com
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/katie-mcginty-1
Primary Date: April 26, 2016
McGinty is establishment Dem's candidate of choice. She works in the Wolf administration, but also did poorly in the Dem primary for governor in 2014. They've poured a ton of money into her candidacy, but she does slightly worse than Sestak in polls against Toomey.
Sestak (barely) lost to Toomey in 2010, but he ran a really shitty campaign and is generally seen as someone who doesn't take advice well from DC Dems. DC Dems hate him for reasons that I think are petty and honestly kind of irresponsible since this is a key race and he's likely to be the nominee at this point.
Fetterman is a mayor of a small Pittsburgh working-class town that is known to be invested in his community, but is generally not viewed as a serious challenger to McGinty or Sestak. He's endorsed Bernie Sanders for president. There also is a brewing scandal about how he owes thousands of unpaid taxes, so I don't know if he's someone you want to send in the general.
I honestly no preference here, but I think Sestak will win the primary. And then, I dunno. Could go either way.
KATIE McGINTY IS THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR SENATE. WRITE UP TO COME LATER
TIER 3: RACES TO WATCH
These are races that are probably Republican leaning at the moment, but with Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket (especially Trump), it's likely that these could be very close.
Winning these races would be paramount towards cushioning a majority going in 2018 where it's likely Democrats will lose a few seats.
DEBORAH ROSS
State: North Carolina
Challenger: Sen. Richard Burr, sir.
Website: www.deborahross.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/deborah-ross-4
Primary Date: Primary Date: Already happened, Ross is the Democratic nominee for November
Write up: This is a race that Democrats struggled for a while to find a legitimate candidate against two-term Burr. They got their candidate of choice in Deborah Ross, who dominated the primary. What's interesting is that polling in North Carolina consistently shows Ross (who is largely unknown to the state at large) within 5 points of Burr. That's the same margin that Elizabeth Dole had above Kay Hagan at this point in the race in 2008.
Ross is extremely progressive (she worked for the ACLU, among other qualifications) and North Carolina is an emerging swing state. After the devastating loss of Kay Hagan in 2014, it'd be nice to get another solid progressive from NC in the Senate.
Of all the races that I'm about to talk about, I think Ross has the biggest chance of pulling a Hagan in 2016 and winning.
ANN KIRKPATRICK
State: Arizona
Challenger: Sen. John McCain, if he wins his primary
Website: www.kirkpatrickforsenate.com/
Act Blue Donation Links: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/ann-kirkpatrick-5
Primary Date: August 30, 2016
Write up: A few things are interesting here. If Trump or Cruz are at the top of the ticket, I think it's likely that Arizona will be a close state for Hillary. That probably means that Hillary's already won the election if we're contesting Arizona, but it's an emerging swing state where Trump could motivate huge Latino registration efforts (that are already underway).
John McCain has never really had a legitimate challenger since he was first elected, so Arizona getting a legitimate choice is pretty rad. Kirkpatrick represents an R-leaning district and won in 2014 with huge support from Native American communities, so she's a strong contender. Unfortunately, she's a bit awkward (Awkward Ann. Sad!) and she's not quite as strong as a Kyrsten Sinema (who I'm guessing is watching the demographic crystal ball and will run in 2018 against Flake). Still, I think this could be close.
If McCain somehow loses his primary against State Sen. Kelli Ward, Kirkpatrick would be the favorite.
JASON KANDER
State: Missouri
Challenger: Sen. Roy Blunt
Website: www.jasonkander.com/
Act Blue Donation Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/jason-kander-3
Primary Date: August 2, 2016
Write up: This one is pretty easy. If Trump is at the top of the ticket, Kander could win. If Cruz is at the top of the ticket, Blunt will be the heavy favorite.
Democrats are impressed with Kander's fundraising (sure), but Missouri is an R-leaning state that will likely go for Cruz. DC Dems believe that there are some scandals in Blunt's closet, so if there is something there, maybe! Polls generally have this as tight, but I'm a little suspicious until we get more polling.
ROB HOGG VS. PATTY JUDGE
State: Iowa
Challenger: Sen. Chuck Grassley
Website: www.robhogg.org/
www.pattyjudgeforiowa.com/
Act Blue Primary Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/rob-hogg-for-u-s--senate-1
https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/patty-judge-for-iowa-1
Write up: I honestly don't know much about this race because there wasn't supposed to be a race. Grassley is one of the most popular Senators in the country from a pre-partisan era. He was supposed to easily win.
That was before Scalia's death and the nomination of Garland. Iowa Democrats see Grassley as chair of the judiciary committee as an opening for them to attack Grassley as an obstructionist who's just politics as usual. While local Dems have lined up behind Rob Hogg, national Dems much prefer Patty Judge and see her an exciting candidate who could really give Grassley a run. I don't expect this to be a race, but we'll see.
BARON HILL
State: Indiana
Challenger: OPEN
Website: www.baronhillforindiana.com
Act Blue Primary Link: https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/baron-hill-4
Primary Date: May 3, 2016
Write up: Baron Hill is a poor fundraiser who is an unimpressive candidate. The only reason this is even here is because Indiana is R+5 and Dems can sometime win, it's a high-turnout presidential year, this is an open seat and Trump and/or Cruz could complicate things. Otherwise, Hill is a wet fart.
That's it! If you liked this, I may do this for key House and Gubernatorial races, though the House is more of a bear. There are some races that could become interesting -- Kentucky, Georgia, and Louisiana, but at this point, they are not.
