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[Trojita]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/us/politics/trump-tax-plan-budget-deficit.html

The White House insists that economic growth will cover the cost, which could be as high as $7 trillion over a decade. But the question will dog Republicans and could fracture their party as they face the prospect of endorsing a plan that many economists and budget analysts warn will increase the deficit. After years of fiscal hawkishness, conservatives now face a moment of truth about whether they truly believe America’s economy is drowning in debt.

Ms. MacGuineas’s group estimates that Mr. Trump’s plan could reduce federal tax revenue by $3 trillion to $7 trillion over a decade. The economy would need to grow at a rate of 4.5 percent — more than double its projected rate, an unlikely prospect — to make the plan self-financing.

“This is fool’s gold that you’ll cut taxes, everybody will work harder, more money will come and you’ll erase the fiscal impact,” said Steve Bell, who was a Republican staff director of the Senate Budget Committee from 1981 to 1986. “It never happens.”

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

Starve the Beast.

The only way it'll get reversed is by an informed public. Which is never going to happen due to tribalism.

 

[timetokill]

lol so fiscally responsible

 

[Zolo]

Don't even Republicans in Congress not even like Trump's plan and are frustrated about his plan or something?

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

And around and around we go.

 

[Gattsu25]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

It's an often repeated cycle in other areas as well.



Republicans come in, fuck us up fam, and then the Democrats have to pick up the pieces.
As soon as people get comfortable again? Vote them Republicans back in.

 

[The Lamp]

Starve the Beast.

The only way it'll get reversed is by an informed public. Which is never going to happen due to tribalism.

It'll never happen because we don't invest in education. The American public overall is dumb as dirt.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

The tax plan should be dramatically smaller in scope and focus the benefits predominantly on poor people who need relief from regressive taxes. They could do things for health care, education and infrastructure instead too.

 

[Maintenance]

7 trillion? Isn't that like 10 times the military budget?

 

[dabig2]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

AKA the Two Santa Claus Theory. This is required reading:
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years

[...]
Ronald Reagan was the first national Republican politician to suggest that he could cut taxes on rich people and businesses, that those tax cuts would cause them to take their surplus money and build factories or import large quantities of cheap stuff from low-labor countries, and that the more stuff there was supplying the economy the faster it would grow. George Herbert Walker Bush – like most Republicans of the time – was horrified. Ronald Reagan was suggesting "Voodoo Economics," said Bush in the primary campaign, and Wanniski's supply-side and Laffer's tax-cut theories would throw the nation into such deep debt that we'd ultimately crash into another Republican Great Depression.

But Wanniski had been doing his homework on how to sell supply-side economics. In 1976, he rolled out to the hard-right insiders in the Republican Party his "Two Santa Clauses" theory, which would enable the Republicans to take power in America for the next thirty years.

Democrats, he said, had been able to be "Santa Clauses" by giving people things from the largesse of the federal government. Republicans could do that, too – spending could actually increase. Plus, Republicans could be double Santa Clauses by cutting people's taxes! For working people it would only be a small token – a few hundred dollars a year on average – but would be heavily marketed. And for the rich it would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts. The rich, in turn, would use that money to import or build more stuff to market, thus increasing supply and stimulating the economy. And that growth in the economy would mean that the people still paying taxes would pay more because they were earning more.

There was no way, Wanniski said, that the Democrats could ever win again. They'd have to be anti-Santas by raising taxes, or anti-Santas by cutting spending. Either one would lose them elections.

When Reagan rolled out Supply Side Economics in the early 80s, dramatically cutting taxes while exploding (mostly military) spending, there was a moment when it seemed to Wanniski and Laffer that all was lost. The budget deficit exploded and the country fell into a deep recession – the worst since the Great Depression – and Republicans nationwide held their collective breath. But David Stockman came up with a great new theory about what was going on – they were "starving the beast" of government by running up such huge deficits that Democrats would never, ever in the future be able to talk again about national health care or improving Social Security – and this so pleased Alan Greenspan, the Fed Chairman, that he opened the spigots of the Fed, dropping interest rates and buying government bonds, producing a nice, healthy goose to the economy. Greenspan further counseled Reagan to dramatically increase taxes on people earning under $37,800 a year by increasing the Social Security (FICA/payroll) tax, and then let the government borrow those newfound hundreds of billions of dollars off-the-books to make the deficit look better than it was.

Reagan, Greenspan, Winniski, and Laffer took the federal budget deficit from under a trillion dollars in 1980 to almost three trillion by 1988, and back then a dollar could buy far more than it buys today. They and George HW Bush ran up more debt in eight years than every president in history, from George Washington to Jimmy Carter, combined. Surely this would both starve the beast and force the Democrats to make the politically suicidal move of becoming deficit hawks.

And that's just how it turned out. Bill Clinton, who had run on an FDR-like platform of a "new covenant" with the American people that would strengthen the institutions of the New Deal, strengthen labor, and institute a national health care system, found himself in a box. A few weeks before his inauguration, Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin sat him down and told him the facts of life: he was going to have to raise taxes and cut the size of government. Clinton took their advice to heart, raised taxes, balanced the budget, and cut numerous programs, declaring an "end to welfare as we know it" and, in his second inaugural address, an "end to the era of big government." He was the anti-Santa Claus, and the result was an explosion of Republican wins across the country as Republican politicians campaigned on a platform of supply-side tax cuts and pork-rich spending increases.

Looking at the wreckage of the Democratic Party all around Clinton by 1999, Winniski wrote a gloating memo that said, in part: "We of course should be indebted to Art Laffer for all time for his Curve... But as the primary political theoretician of the supply-side camp, I began arguing for the 'Two Santa Claus Theory' in 1974. If the Democrats are going to play Santa Claus by promoting more spending, the Republicans can never beat them by promoting less spending. They have to promise tax cuts..."

Ed Crane, president of the Libertarian CATO Institute, noted in a memo that year: "When Jack Kemp, Newt Gingich, Vin Weber, Connie Mack and the rest discovered Jude Wanniski and Art Laffer, they thought they'd died and gone to heaven. In supply-side economics they found a philosophy that gave them a free pass out of the debate over the proper role of government. Just cut taxes and grow the economy: government will shrink as a percentage of GDP, even if you don't cut spending. That's why you rarely, if ever, heard Kemp or Gingrich call for spending cuts, much less the elimination of programs and departments."

[...]

And we'll continue this little dance in perpetuity because human beings, especially Americans, are fucking idiots.

 

[Zeus Molecules]

Starve the Beast.

The only way it'll get reversed is by an informed public. Which is never going to happen due to tribalism.

We're getting the equivalent of Christian Madrassas to keep people worrying about who uses which bathroom. No time to worry about "budgets" when they have coal to watch machines mine and dark skinned people to complain about.

 

[WedgeX]

We're all Kansas now.

The tax plan should be dramatically smaller in scope and focus the benefits predominantly on poor people who need relief from regressive taxes. They could do things for health care, education and infrastructure instead too.

They could.

But the GOP hasn't cared about any of those things since Eisenhower.

 

[lupinko]

The Simpsons did it.

https://youtu.be/lwIJHvXn7iQ

 

[watershed]

Starve the beast and fuck over people who depend on government spending and federal programs for assistance.

 

[Got]

good stuff

 

[Maximus.]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

Yea basically.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

Sounds about right. We keep going in these boom and bust cycles every decade. We just don't seem to learn do we?

 

[Oblivion]

Silly libs. Cutting taxes = MORE revenue

It's basic math

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

We're all Kansas now.



They could.

But the GOP hasn't cared about any of those things since Eisenhower.

I specifically use that ongoing shitshow to convince people of this being at the least far far too huge. Even used it on my three congressmen this afternoon.

 

[Ogodei]

Deficit spending's only bad when the economy's running hot, because it creates a crowding-out effect that potentially dampens investment or could kickstart inflation.

Assuming they don't manifest in the form of service cuts, there's nothing wrong with deficits.

That said, it would be hard to make the case for an expanded social safety net with a hole that size in the budget, so this is still bad.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Fucking "fiscal repsonabily"

 

[shinra-bansho]

But he'll deliver 186799% growth. So it doesn't matter obviously.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

If it gets too bad, he'll just declare bankruptcy and start again.




Right?

 

[UberTag]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

It's the circle of life
And it moves us all
Through despair and hope
Through faith and love
Till we find our place
On the path unwinding
In the circle
The circle of life

 

[Fuchsdh]

It'll never happen because we don't invest in education. The American public overall is dumb as dirt.

Education doesn't stop people from blinding going with what agrees with their ideology.

As dumb as these fiscal plans are, remember when Bernie was basically doing the same "we'll have Chinese-level economic growth!" bullshit so that his giant entitlement increases wouldn't require massive taxes on the middle class?

 

[CaviarMeths]

There's decades of data to back up that the only thing that happens when corporations pay less taxes is that their executives take a higher salary. Why does this bullshit still fly with voters?

 

[Brinbe]

This should be a good thing as they'd be outed as the hypocrites that they all are. Unfortunately, voters are dumb as dirt. Looks like the US wants to follow Kansas' lead on a national scale.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

I think I just need to move somewhere less frustrating lol.

The American population will be forced to wake up one way or another as the job market / economy gets swept out from under us. People are already noticing store closures, just wait till drivers start disappearing.

 

[digdug2k]

And yet Republicans in my Facebook feed are adamant they don't support trickle down economics of course. Just laissez-faire ones. Its a totally different thing. "Corporate taxes are just way to high. Its strangling small businesses! If only there weren't so many regulations. Yada yada..."

God, just this week I got to read this dumb ass WaPo article explaining to me that Republicans just haven't explained well enough to people that their policies (which apparently, despite everyone laughing Jeb Bush out of the race for claiming it last year, are a given for generating 3-4% GDP growth) are just gonna make us all rich so that healthcare isn't even an issue. So we should just let them gut healthcare, because that's the way forward to 4% growth, which I'm sure will end up in your checkbook right away!

 

[Garrett Hawke]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

you missed the bit where democrats are also blamed for the deficit the republicans grew.

 

[cameron]

“This looks like ’81, where they said, ‘Deficit be damned, we want to do a tax cut,’” Mr. Thorndike said. “It’s a cautionary tale.”

But for Republicans who have been craving big tax cuts for years, confidence was high that the worries about deficits were overwrought.

“This is a thing of beauty, a thing of wonder,” Grover Norquist, the president of Americans for Tax Reform, said of Mr. Trump’s one-page plan. “Growth, growth, growth!”

Grover Numbnuts: "Fuck your cautionary tale! Wooooo!"

 

[Aselith]

Don't worry, the wealth we free up for the companies will trickle down

 

[UberTag]

The only thing I see growing are the wallets of the already wealthy fat cats.
Well, that and the US national debt... and the ignorance of the uneducated masses.

 

[jellies_two]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/26/us/politics/trump-tax-plan-budget-deficit.html

This doesn't even make any sense
While you grow at 4.5% you are still borrowing money to cover the gap. That has to be paid back. If it's revenue neutral after 8 years or whatever you have just taken on a huge amount of debt for the previous 7..

If by some miracle you do grow the economy by 4.5% for year after year then the government sector needs more money than it does now. Way more. More infrastructure more services more everything.

Growing the economy in ways that end up as tax means everything gets busier and the government has to grow just to keep at the same percentage. So revenue neutral to today's tax take is no good for an economy that has exploded by 4.5% y/y.

 

[sc0la]

To be clear the goal was never to "pay" for tax cuts. Make the tax cuts happen with a phase out so the deficit impact is "temporary". Then make them permanent later, while complaining about the sky rocketing deficit. Your solution? gut social programs to "bring this out of control deficit into check" as if it were spending alone that got you there.

 

[toddhunter]

7 trillion? Isn't that like 10 times the military budget?

Well he is also going to increase the military budget, so it is hard to say.

 

[Monocle]

AKA the Two Santa Claus Theory. This is required reading:
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years




And we'll continue this little dance in perpetuity because human beings, especially Americans, are fucking idiots.

Fucking hell.

 

[Swass]

Nobody should be buying this announcement today.. the 1 sheet tax "plan" is nothing more than a distraction from how little he has accomplished in his first 100 days. This thing was a bigger joke than the failed healthcare bill, which is going to fail again..

 

[Trojita]

Fucking hell.

Greenspan is evil scum

Noam Chomsky characterized portions of Greenspan's February 1997 testimony to the U.S. Senate as an example of the self-serving attitudes of the so-called 1%. In that testimony, Greenspan had stated that growing worker insecurity is a significant factor keeping inflation and inflation expectation low, thereby promoting long-term investment.

 

[rokkerkory]

Stupid idea that has proven itself false time and time again

 

[rokkerkory]

AKA the Two Santa Claus Theory. This is required reading:
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years




And we'll continue this little dance in perpetuity because human beings, especially Americans, are fucking idiots.

Sigh man

What a good read though

 

[Secret Fawful]

AKA the Two Santa Claus Theory. This is required reading:
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years




And we'll continue this little dance in perpetuity because human beings, especially Americans, are fucking idiots.

Holy shit. This is revelatory.

 

[mj1108]

Then when the economy crashes and things go downhill, the GOP will blame Obama's policies and at the same time call the numbers "fake", saying the economy is the strongest it's ever been.

 

[KingV]

There is so little data on the plan. That you can't really evaluate. It's not really a plan at all. In fact, my bet is the details are never forthcoming at all.

 

[Ecotic]

I'm so sick of this hell we're living through, and it's been 3 months. We could invest and do so much with $3 to $7 trillion, instead of giving it away mostly to the rich.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

AKA the Two Santa Claus Theory. This is required reading:
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years


And we'll continue this little dance in perpetuity because human beings, especially Americans, are fucking idiots.

Jesus fuck, that's a good read.

Horrifying, but good.

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

 

[wildfire]

So republicans are going to fuck everything up by lowering taxes, democrats will have to fix it, then people will get mad at democrats for raising their taxes and vote republicans in to fuck shit up again.

Fuck.

Ah let me see if I understand...

 

[MisterMrMister]

AKA the Two Santa Claus Theory. This is required reading:
Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years




And we'll continue this little dance in perpetuity because human beings, especially Americans, are fucking idiots.

Well fuck, that's a depressing read.