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[tuxfool]

The deal certainly won't be as good as full single market membership, that much is for certain, but I think we can safely discount the idea that an FTA is totally impossible as pretty out there - South Korea and Canada have one and the UK already has the exact same regulatory standards as the EU by virtue of being a member for the next 2 years. Free trade in goods seems very easily achievable, services probably much less so but the similar regulations probably help in this regard vs the Canada deal.

Of course this will require the UK to keep to EU regulations for any goods destined for export with all this which is why Brexit is dumb. At least the PM acknowledges this now.

Of course making free trade deals with the UK is much more simple on account of all that. I also see no reason that once it is left that countries would not jump at the opportunity to do so. Making deals with a desperate partner is shooting fish in a barrel and on account of their existing stability, none of these other nations have their success predicated on making these deals, for them it is a nice value-add.

you are completely discounting the political dimensions here. EU wants UK to fail. they will take the economical hit and hope that the hit is harder for UK. why? because otherwise everybody will want out of the EU. france, netherlands, austria are already lining up

This is completely overstating it. They don't want failure, because they'd still theoretically want to sell to the UK. However, they do want to extract a price on leaving on account of political realities.

 

[Tacitus_]

you are completely discounting the political dimensions here. EU wants UK to fail. they will take the economical hit and hope that the hit is harder for UK. why? because otherwise everybody will want out of the EU. france, netherlands, austria are already lining up

There is a difference between wanting them to fail and not giving them special treatment.

 

[Micael]

No one is gonna risk losing access to a market of 450m for access to 60m. That's nonsense.

Not to mention that I am very doubtful countries would look at the UK breaking rules they agreed to as a good indicator for future deals.

you are completely discounting the political dimensions here. EU wants UK to fail. they will take the economical hit and hope that the hit is harder for UK. why? because otherwise everybody will want out of the EU. france, netherlands, austria are already lining up

Think this is an exaggeration, especially given that UK had an exalted position, in an unrealistic hypothetical scenario of them leaving and joining right after they would still get a worse deal than they had before, so there is little reason for the EU to go to any great lengths to screw the UK, since the UK deciding to leave is already guaranteed to screw them at least in the short term (if for some reason you believe in long term gains on this).

 

[Mass_Pincup]

you are completely discounting the political dimensions here. EU wants UK to fail. they will take the economical hit and hope that the hit is harder for UK. why? because otherwise everybody will want out of the EU. france, netherlands, austria are already lining up

Not really. The EU want what's best for europeans, that means looking out for our interests. They made it clear what would be required and it's on the UK to either budge or not.

This was known before the referendum yet people still voted to Leave. You can't then act surprised that the EU is doing exactly what it said it would do.

 

[kmag]

Doesn't the EU want the full amount before any negotiations happen? Seems like a sure way for there to be no negotiations...

Not being able to negotiate with other countries when there's pretty much no way 27 other member states would extend your presence is pretty austere and likely to be ignored if there appears to be no chance of a FTA being reached in a very short period of time.

Realistically.

There's not going to be an FTA discussed during the two year period. The EU have been pretty clear on that from the beginning. They'll discuss the exit agreement, the nature of the future framework (i.e essentially do you want a trade deal in the future) then a transitional deal, but I imagine broadly the EU will offer something like EEA membership with some tinkering at the edges. There simply isn't time do a FTA.

Even simple bilateral ones take a minimum of two years in most cases. It would take the EU about 8 months to ratify any deal, and probably a month or two for the UK parliament to ratify. It just isn't happening.

The triggering of the A50 process ceded all British control over the process. The EU controls the tempo and tenor of the negotiation now because the clock is on their side. They can survive the economic hit of a default to WTO rules far easier. If you don't believe that, then ask yourself why the EU is waiting until the end of next month to meet to discuss their response to the A50 letter. They're going to slowball things and utilise the UK's desperation.

 

[KingSnake]

Of course free movement is good for the economy. Cheap , flexible labour with very few protections always is and always will be .
Making already rich and greedy bastards even richer will certainly improve the figures on an economic spreadsheet.
Don't blame the immigrants , blame the system for allowing it.

It was either immigrants or outsourcing. One could argue that free movement actually​ slowed down the relocation of industries. While keeping more budget contributions in your country.

 

[Xando]

The triggering of the A50 process ceded all British control over the process. The EU controls the tempo and tenor of the negotiation now because the clock is on their side. They can survive the economic hit of a default to WTO rules far easier. If you don't believe that, then ask yourself why the EU is waiting until the end of next month to meet to discuss their response to the A50 letter. They're going to slowball things and utilise the UK's desperation.

Pretty much. There won't be much discussed over the summer and then we won't have any meaningful decisions being taken before the german election in september.

We are looking at 1 year (+/- 1-2 months) of negotiating time. There simply isn't enough time and it'll be interesting to see Mays reaction when she realizes this and has to sell it to the public.


We've seen this tactic before and it will get us the same outcome.

 

[travisbickle]

Yes there was. UK didn't use it for impenetrable reasons that some ascribe to the desire of the then-Government to import large quantities of grateful Labour-voting workers.

see here for example

They wanted to increase low-skilled labour to increase tax revenues. EU citizens were coming here to work, and in jobs UK citizens didn't want to. People don't give up the citizenship of their own country so they can vote in a place they only come to to earn money.

 

[Rest]

I'll just put all my savings into dollars for now, then.

Get dollars now and buy up pounds when they crash.

 

[Halph n Halph]

It was either immigrants or outsourcing. One could argue that free movement actually​ slowed down the relocation of industries. While keeping more budget contributions in your country.

My career is in the construction industry which cannot be outsourced . Unless of course instead of building the 35 floor office block in Manchester like the client asked , you pop it up in Warsaw.
Such a move would undoubtedly piss off the client somewhat.
I'm joking a little and can agree with what you are saying to some degree. It's a wide brush though.

They wanted to increase low-skilled labour to increase tax revenues. EU citizens were coming here to work, and in jobs UK citizens didn't want to. People don't give up the citizenship of their own country so they can vote in a place they only come to to earn money.

Maybe if the employers paid an attractive wage then finding British workers to do these jobs would become easier.
Without an abundance of cheap labour would an agricultural employer increase wages to attract staff or let his potatoes rot in the ground ?

 

[Joni]

Without an abundance of cheap labour would an agricultural employer increase wages to attract staff or let his potatoes rot in the ground ?

Or he would simply go bankrupt because supermarkets are driving his prices down.

 

[Xando]

Tusk press conference soon. He will reveal the EU guidelines for negotiation

 

[phisheep]

EU sets out Brexit strategy suggesting UK trade talks could begin once "sufficient progress" made on separation deal

Sensible.

 

[Chittagong]

EU willing to negotiate FTA during exit negotiations. Boom.

 

[jelly]

My career is in the construction industry which cannot be outsourced . Unless of course instead of building the 35 floor office block in Manchester like the client asked , you pop it up in Warsaw.
Such a move would undoubtedly piss off the client somewhat.
I'm joking a little and can agree with what you are saying to some degree. It's a wide brush though.



Maybe if the employers paid an attractive wage then finding British workers to do these jobs would become easier.
Without an abundance of cheap labour would an agricultural employer increase wages to attract staff or let his potatoes rot in the ground ?

Would they have an EU single market to sell to, would the supermarkets increase their prices, would they even get staff at a higher wage?

I think cheap labour can be a problem if they are not paying minimum wage and living wage should be pushed more by the government as the standard. Exploitation of cheap labour does need cracked down but the government should be bringing the hammer down not throwing the baby out with the bath water by leaving the EU.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

EU sets out Brexit strategy suggesting UK trade talks could begin once "sufficient progress" made on separation deal

Sensible.

Sounds alright to me. I think Tusk is going to go into some more detail on the guidelines in the next half hour or so.

 

[Xando]

EU sets out Brexit strategy suggesting UK trade talks could begin once "sufficient progress" made on separation deal

Sensible.

Remember this is only a first draft so things might change. Now goes to EU27 to decide final guidelines on april 29th summit.

Leaked draft:

https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/847719371766087685

If i read this correct there won't be a FTA signed until the UK left (goes to WTO for some time?) on site 4.4

 

[jelly]

EU willing to negotiate FTA during exit negotiations. Boom.

It doesn't say that. Should know more soon.

 

[Xando]

So yeah tusk just said phase 1 (financial agreements, ireland and citizens) have to be agreed on before phase 2 (trade agreement)

 

[Veidt]

EU willing to negotiate FTA during exit negotiations. Boom.

Uh. No.
Tusk is talking now. That's not what's happening.
The 27 see no room for parallel negotiations. The EU decides when sufficient progress has been made.

 

[kmag]

Slightly off top but fun. Ruth Davidson, head of the Ruth Davidson Party (ssh we're really the Tories but we don't include that on most of our election literature) got clamped on twitter last night.

 

[travisbickle]

Maybe if the employers paid an attractive wage then finding British workers to do these jobs would become easier.
Without an abundance of cheap labour would an agricultural employer increase wages to attract staff or let his potatoes rot in the ground ?

I was just responding to phisheep's belief that there was some kind of devious plan to increase Labour voters, when it doesn't make logical sense because Europeans would have to live in the UK for over 10 years (and we know the majority are here for much less time) and in some cases give up their home country's nationality. The reality is much simpler, Labour was trying to increase tax receipts by bringing in more blue collar workers because they'd given up on the idea of getting the tax from the rich.

 

[Halph n Halph]

Or he would simply go bankrupt because supermarkets are driving his prices down.

If it's not the singular and every food producer paid a decent wage then supermarkets would have to pay the price the market demands. So they then either raise prices or heaven forbid slash shareholder profits and CEO wages.

 

[jelly]

So yeah tusk just said phase 1 (financial agreements, ireland and citizens) have to be agreed on before phase 2 (trade agreement)

Forever

 

[kmag]

From reading the guidance, I don't actually think Tusk's position or the EU's position has changed at all despite all the headlines.

 

[Acorn]

Slightly off top but fun. Ruth Davidson, head of the Ruth Davidson Party (ssh we're really the Tories but we don't include that on most of our election literature) got clamped on twitter last night.

Her mask slipped on qt yesterday. Happened on FMQs too.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Slightly off top but fun. Ruth Davidson, head of the Ruth Davidson Party (ssh we're really the Tories but we don't include that on most of our election literature) got clamped on twitter last night.

Check-Fucking-Mate.

 

[Xando]

From reading the guidance, I don't actually think Tusk's position or the EU's position has changed at all despite all the headlines.

It's basically the same wording Merkel had on wednesday.

No negotiations before settlement is agreed on.

 

[Veidt]

From reading the guidance, I don't actually think Tusk's position or the EU's position has changed at all despite all the headlines.

Yea. He just said no parallel negotiations. And he makes it even worse for the UK, because he said the EU 27 will decide​ when the first the negotiation can be considered to be concluded.

The fact that Tusk dictates what's happening says enough about who holds the cards here.

 

[PJV3]

It's basically the same wording Merkel had on wednesday.

No negotiations before settlement is agreed on.

Even the British should realise that is where the focus should be, imagine the chaos getting turfed out without it being sorted.

 

[kmag]

Survation poll in todays Herald....

Who should decide if Scotland has another IndyRef ?

Holyrood - 53%
Westminister - 35%
DK - 12%

Excluding DK's that's a 61/39 split in favour of Holyrood.

Who should decide on the Timing

Excluding DK's - 56/44 in favour of Holyrood

Should Westminister have the right to block a 2nd IndyRef

58/42 (exc DK's) say no, it shouldn't.

So looks like the 'Now is not the time' stuff from Theresa May has gone down like a fart in a spacesuit.

 

[kmag]

Yea. He just said no parallel negotiations. And he makes it even worse for the UK, because he said the EU 27 will decide​ when the first the negotiation can be considered to be concluded.

The fact that Tusk dictates what's happening says enough about who holds the cards here.

Yes, that approach is actually terrible for the UK. Your money or your economy in the local dialect.

 

[jelly]

UK has no cards, that's the problem.

Security screws them both and idiotic to use that. Using people as bargaining chips is horrible.

EU control this. They won't blink for 2 years.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I am fascinated to see what the UK-EU deal on the NI border is going to be, as that I think is going to have to be decided before the UK government can get on to the all-important trade deal.

An open border in NI means an open border for EU migrants into the UK, as far as I understand the issue?

 

[kmag]

Ooft. There's another bullet in the gun to the head.

 

[KingSnake]

So yeah tusk just said phase 1 (financial agreements, ireland and citizens) have to be agreed on before phase 2 (trade agreement)

This sounds like a very sensible approach.

 

[Xando]

Ooft. There's another bullet in the gun to the head.

If UK/EU get a FTA spain can still veto gibraltar being a part of it?

As expected May backtracked on security threats:

Muscat PM Malta: "many people ourselves noted [security]..we have had reassurances from British government that this is a misinterpretation"

Tusk: "security is our common problem, I know PM May well enough that I rule out security as a bargaining chip, must be a misunderstanding"

Muscat there confirming that a round of diplomatic clarification of the security sentence in the May A50 letter happened yesterday

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/847727911540932608

Also shotdown any suggestings of industry only access to single market (car industry, financial industry).

 

[kmag]

I am fascinated to see what the UK-EU deal on the NI border is going to be, as that I think is going to have to be decided before the UK government can get on to the all-important trade deal.

An open border in NI means an open border for EU migrants into the UK, as far as I understand the issue?

Three options either you get the ROI to 'do' border control for you (against all EU treaty law) or the UK does border control between NI and the UK or you have border control between NI and ROI.

In practice they may just leave it completely open based on the common travel area but something needs to be put down on paper.

 

[hodgy100]

If UK/EU get a FTA spain can still veto gibraltar being a part of it?

As expected May backtracked on security threats:




https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/847727911540932608

Also shotdown any suggestings of industry only access to single market (car industry, financial industry).

good to see that isnt the case. i thought the tories had somehow gone even more evil and wanted to risk millions of peoples lives to get a good deal.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Three options either you get the ROI to 'do' border control for you (against all EU treaty law) or the UK does border control between NI and the UK or you have border control between NI and ROI.

In practice they may just leave it completely open based on the common travel area but something needs to be put down on paper.

This pretty much happens already though, right? I know you can technically travel based on a driver's licence or something, but most people just take a passport just for an easier time at the airport.

 

[Xando]

As expected:

European Council saying no talks on future relationship until post-German elex & only if sufficient progress, as judged by EU27 made on exit

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/847730728573878272

That leaves ~1 year for a FTA. Practically impossible without transition deal

 

[kmag]

This pretty much happens already though, right? I know you can technically travel based on a driver's licence or something, but most people just take a passport just for an easier time at the airport.

Try telling the unionists they need a passport to visit Britain. They're defined by their Britishness (and their view of Catholics as untermensch)

 

[Funky Papa]

Ooft. There's another bullet in the gun to the head.

Spoiler

I hate this picture.

 

[Lucreto]

I am glad to hear Northern Ireland is one of the big issues. I think Enda Kenny deserves a pat on the back about pushing this issue in Europe. It would have easily been put on the back burner and cause problems later.

 

[2MF]

As expected:


https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/847730728573878272

That leaves ~1 year for a FTA. Practically impossible without transition deal

The EU apparently wants a transition deal lasting a few years anyway. I suppose May is OK with this too, so it might not be a problem?

 

[kaizoku]

I can't believe 17m people voted for this. Honestly wish we could have peoples votes plastered on their faces so we could know who voted leave so we could make them feel the shame forever.

 

[PJV3]

Also shotdown any suggestings of industry only access to single market (car industry, financial industry).

Nice, we can now spend a fortune on trying to keep jobs that we shouldn't have to.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Try telling the unionists they need a passport to visit Britain. They're defined by their Britishness (and their view of Catholics as untermensch)

I don't really see the big deal. I've flown from Edinburgh to Bristol and I took my passport. A few weeks ago I flew to Gibraltar and I took my passport ¯\_(&#12484_/¯ Those unionists need to chill.

 

[kmag]

I get what Tusk has done with the 'phased' negotiations talk. He's given May enough wiggle room to claim a partial success on one of her aims, while still in practice maintaining complete EU control of the process.

Pretty clever. He's aware of the domestic political pressure on May and is giving her enough space to operate towards an agreement which is in effect a complete climb down on the UK's behalf. Bodes well for some agreement at the end of the process if the EU can bring the UK along without rubbing their faces in it, I suppose the question is: Is the UK government smart enough to go along with that?

 

[kmag]

I don't really see the big deal. I've flown from Edinburgh to Bristol and I took my passport. A few weeks ago I flew to Gibraltar and I took my passport ¯\_(&#12484_/¯ Those unionists need to chill.

They riot when they're not allowed to route sectarian marches past Catholic primary schools, and their biggest day of the year is when they set fire to their own houses, chilling isn't in their vocabulary. It'll inflame the nutballs.