?
I mean if anything, the last two seasons gave us proof that the major events of the show will be the same as the books; D&D stated Shireen's burning and "hold the door" were both events from the books. And of course, their previous statement that GRRM sat down and explained the endpoints for all the major characters and events. The show is building to the same ending as the books, maybe just a bit more barebones and with less nuance.
I highly doubt that Littlefinger will die much differently in the books, Sansa for sure will pass the sentence there too. Will there be a dumb contrived sister-drama plot in the books? Highly unlikely. But it's safe to assume every major character, including Viserion, will die the same way in the books. If you believe otherwise you are probably in denial.
Hold the door is a main event? News to me.
Also a story is the journey not the destination. Shireen may burn, but will Stannis do it? Will Mel do it to resurrect Jon Snow ("Wake the dragon from stone"), or will Selyse do it because she thinks Stannis is in trouble? Maybe Stannis will do it, but maybe it will be in a last ditch effort against the white walkers.
To say any of the above would be like the shows versions of events would be a flat out lie. It's not a question of 'nuance' or the story being 'barebones'. It's a question of all the events leading up to the 'big event' being different. It's a question of a characters actions and motivations being different. And those are the things that make a story. Not the events themselves, but the build up to those events and the reason those events happen.
Sansa may be LF's downfall ("Slay a giant in a castle of snow"), but you and I both know it won't look anything like what happened in the show. Same with the zombie dragon.
Add to all this the huge chunks of plot missing from the show; Dorne, Iron Islands, fAegon, Stoneheart, etc. Winds of Winter is going to be a far cry from the TV Show in so many ways. Id bet good money on it. Id bet my neogaf avatar on it if youd like.
In the end, GRRM told D&D the broad strokes of the ending when the show began seven years ago, and he's become less and less involved with the show. Seven years is a long time, and we've seen how his initial outline for the books went completely out the window. Like GRRM says, he is a gardener not an architect. He goes where the characters and events logically lead him. In a blog post in the past year, he said he come up with a big new twist for a character he hadnt even entertained before.
When people smugly comment about how the books are mostly going to be the same as the show, and us book readers are just in denial, I really just have to laugh. Will Cersei blow up all of her political rivals (Tyrells And Kevan) in the sept and become the queen? I doubt it. Will Jon Snow fight in a battle against Ramsey called the Battle of the Bastards, and almost lose, but be saved by Sansa and the Vale? I honestly dont think so. Will Arya kill the entire male line of House Frey? Again, I doubt it. Will Sansa be married to and get raped by Ramsey? Dont think so.