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US Power Will Decline Under Trump, Says Sociologist Who Predicted Soviet Collapse
- Thread starter kame-sennin
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Most of our power is soft power, economic power, and having a network of allies that enable us to project power worldwide.
Doing things that hurt our soft power, make our allies wary of us, and making economically poor decisions hurt our overall might more than anything that might happen to the military.
PdotMichael
Banned
One could also argue that USA's trust in it's military power worked like a catalyst in the post 9/11 world.
andythinkpad
Member
Actually very few geopolitics theorist have good prediction. Even Huntington had pretty low batting average in his books.
The EU won't cease to exist, but gridlock will render it non-functional. NATO falling apart seems a more pressing concern, because Germany, France and Trump are totally going to go to war over Albania...
Countries are still signing on to the EU. The bigger 'problem' is the UK ATM, since they're bumbling about like headless chickens and dragging the rest of us with them. Idiots.
DragonSworne
Banned
Reaction from my Republican friends on Facebook: "America was already on decline. Any moron could see that and it has nothing to do with Trump."
Yep, this country is a lost cause.
Yep, this country is a lost cause.
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
I could've told you that and I just flossed my teeth with a thread I pulled off my shirt.
Epsilon-delta
Banned
Translation: I would never admit liberals were right all along.
Subpar Spatula
Banned
It's going to be really hard to tank a country such as USA like so. There's no other country in the world with the systems in place to handle what USA would release if it went under. If the USA started to tank then other countries would help prop it up. Forget understanding the economical fallout that would occur, you would see MUCH more hostility between countries.
USA is one empire that won't topple anytime soon. Everyone's too invested in it.
The USA is a the personification of "you need me more than I need you". So who will flinch first?
USA is one empire that won't topple anytime soon. Everyone's too invested in it.
The USA is a the personification of "you need me more than I need you". So who will flinch first?
A potential breakup of the United States into various groups or a confederation has always been the most interesting for me whenever this topic comes up. It doesn't at all feel impossible. If anything the US is already broken up like that for the most part when you really look the various states and regions of the US. They're sometimes very different and even though they share state borders. I always wonder how things would be if states in different regions decided collectively they had enough and wanted more autonomy from the others.
I think everyone saw this coming. The peak of American power was immediately after 9/11. Wars in the middle east, economic recession, political polarization and increasing inequality has only exacerbated the collapse of our hegemony. 2020 seems like a nice round number for the transfer of that hegemony from the USA to the EU (assuming changes) or China.
My read as well. Everyone (rational) expects a decline.
KoruptData
Member
Was America considered the world power during the Great Depression?
andythinkpad
Member
Western civilization focuses too much on 4-year election cycle and quarterly profit report; Eastern civilization plans for longer terms.
This is also reflected on education investment.
PdotMichael
Banned
Automation will hit India quite hard.
China and the rest of the world will make the shift to large scale automation of manufactoring through all fields when India hit it's demopgrahic sweet spot.
Chinese
See Pakistan buddying up with China tho, so Hindi/Urdu might be a thing as well lmao
And ofc India is going to be a major player regardless
LegendofJoe
Member
People that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Let's all just forget that European peace and stability was built on the pillars of NATO and the EU (plus its forebears).
DragonSworne
Banned
It'll come to war before United States let's itself decline.
We will see ourselves transition into an authoritative military presence around the world.
I hope we'll have cool tech to instantly translate whatever you're saying to another person by then.
andythinkpad
Member
It's not about toppling United States the country, it's about US losing its dominant global influence and retreat back to pre-wwII status.
andythinkpad
Member
India's official language is English.
LegendofJoe
Member
It's already happening in the Philippines. And the South Pacific in general really. Maintaining hegemony there was what the TPP was all about.
Yeah that's not even close to possibly happening...
Wow, didn't know that.
Guess Im studying chinese next year!
DragonSworne
Banned
China won't be able to stand a chance against US military power. And believe me it will come to war before Trump allows China to become the world power.
PdotMichael
Banned
What kind of silly endgame is that supposed to be?
aGuyInaBearSuit
Member
Yep, this is plain as day. America is going to be taking a backseat to China in the very near future. Possibly Russia as well, if Putin has his way - Which he likely will with his lapdog in the white house.
The people who claim to be the most patriotic just put the final nail in our coffin.
The people who claim to be the most patriotic just put the final nail in our coffin.
India was under British rule/culture during the 1900's.
kame-sennin
Member
This raises an interesting question; if the U.S. was struggling with internal violent conflict, would other countries send military forces to assist the government? I feel like U.S. pride would never accept that.
tearsintherain
Member
I would be more worried if everyone on GAF disagreed with this. The collective "he's right!" from the group that was sure that Hillary was going to win is sort of a sure contrarian bet.
Meanwhile the US consumer confidence index (released today) is at the highest its been in 12 years, the US stock market is at record highs - the DJIA up nearly 8% since just the election - the US dollar is at record strength, the US business confidence is at record highs, oil prices seem stable even after OPEC agreed to a cartel supply cut, and china has a host of problems to combat next year that make the US's seem trivial in contrast: massive corporate debt mostly held by state owned companies, real estate growth issues, and a real slowdown in household consumption.
Meanwhile the US consumer confidence index (released today) is at the highest its been in 12 years, the US stock market is at record highs - the DJIA up nearly 8% since just the election - the US dollar is at record strength, the US business confidence is at record highs, oil prices seem stable even after OPEC agreed to a cartel supply cut, and china has a host of problems to combat next year that make the US's seem trivial in contrast: massive corporate debt mostly held by state owned companies, real estate growth issues, and a real slowdown in household consumption.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Feel like this key quote defining why he cracked the USSR collapse is being overlooked.
What structural contradictions does the US have?
Oh, oh yeah. I can get on board with these.
Jesus.
What structural contradictions does the US have?
- economic contradictions such as overproduction relative to demand, unemployment and the increasing costs of climate change;
- military contradictions including rising tensions between the US, NATO, and its military allies, along with the increasing economic unsustainability of war;
- political contradictions including the conflicting roles of the US, UN and EU;
- cultural contradictions including tensions between US Judeo-Christianity, Islam, and other minorities;
- and social contradictions encompassing the increasing gulf between the so-called American Dream, the belief that everyone can prosper in America through hard work, and the reality of American life (the fact that more and more people cant).
Oh, oh yeah. I can get on board with these.
Jesus.
Which would completely cripple Europe and make it absolutely defenseless so let's hope you are wrong. It needs to become stronger, even if it's just with the seven to eight core countries.
DragonSworne
Banned
A realistic one with Trump and co. leading the nation.
Step 1) alienate our allies and weaken our presence in the global market by withdrawing from trade deals
Step 2) blame foreign influence (China) for the decline of our economy and status around the world. Funnel all tax payer resources into our military.
Step 3) After a couple of years of extreme economy hardship, the government will be "forced" to enact War with China. After all, they are the "reason" why the US is collapsing.
Step 4) War with China will be swift but catastrophic. Nations wiped off the map, new allies, new treaties, new era for the modern world.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I agree with the contradictions premise.
Income inequality GREW under Obama. Economic gains are all going to the top.
Half the country buys into GOP lies regarding tax breaks for the rich, deregulation.
We are not investing enough domestically in education and scientific research.
There is a shit storm coming. Trump is part of it.
Income inequality GREW under Obama. Economic gains are all going to the top.
Half the country buys into GOP lies regarding tax breaks for the rich, deregulation.
We are not investing enough domestically in education and scientific research.
There is a shit storm coming. Trump is part of it.
PdotMichael
Banned
China's GDP just exceeded ours and now we are going to start a war isn't realistic at all. Which of the USA allies in Asia would support such a move?
DragonSworne
Banned
You think Trump cares about ally support? Japan would be all for it.
US isn't some bad ass kid that can do whatever they damn well please lmfao
this shit is some alt right baby's wet dream or something
If no one wants to do any business with the US, which would definitely happen if we even come close to trying something like this, we'd be fucked. China is our biggest economic resource.
Barajas_201
Member
This is great news for those of us under a US-backed regime. Kinda parallel to the ex-Soviet countries actually.
AuthenticM
Member
"Chinese" is not a language.
Mandarin srry
Guileless
Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
Every Western democracy has these to some degree. The US is in a stronger position than Western Europe due to the dollar being a reserve currency and its geographic isolation.
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