SiegfriedFM
Member
This Nintendo ad is perfect for Trump.
Actually, that was a pretty good illustration of how the screen ended up looking.
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USA Today: Clinton in commanding position for 270 EC votes
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Actually, that was a pretty good illustration of how the screen ended up looking.
Lord Frieza
Member
The last two or three elections have been very accurate to what pollsters followed.
Overall, I don't know of any 1-to-1 comparison, but no one has been below at the level of Trump and actually won, if that's what you're asking. The closest analogy of a candidate behind to a high level that came back to win is the infamous case of Truman v. Dewey. There's the picture of Truman, who had just won the election, holding up a newspaper that proclaimed Dewey Bears Truman. But event that really isn't the same for two key reasons: the first being that Truman wasn't behind as bad as Trump, and the second being that how the data for polling was gathered at that point in time wasn't nearly as sophisticated as it nowadays.
The truth is there's really only three ways Trump can win. 1: Some massive surge that seems him shot up the polls in a precedent never seen in American politics, 2: A major force of voters, this "Silent Major" will magically start to exist that aren't being represented in the polls and they all vote for Trump over Clinton, 3: The Democratic turnout will be depressed to an epic degree never before seen in politics with no depression whatsoever in the Republican turnout. The odds of this three happening, even as a mixture of the three together, are pretty slim.
Personally I can't wait to see the salt in the Donald subreddit.
mercenar1e
Member
When Hillary gets into office I'm 100% certain she's going to do everything she can to get Assange before the next election. If the Republicans manage to put up a worthy opponent who knows what kind of additional damage he can pull off.
Laieon
Member
As someone who just sent in my vote-from-abroad ballot last week and voted for Clinton, I hope they don't. Nothing sounds more childish or irresponsible than banning people with dissenting opinions.
I am looking forward to this though.
Lord Frieza
Member
I think he's done all the damage he truly can. If he had something more damaging, it would have been pulled out already. The reality is that a lot of the e-mails really aren't much of anything at the end of the day.
Markitron
Is currently staging a hunger strike outside Gearbox HQ while trying to hate them to death
That was a good explanation, thanks.
mercenar1e
Member
He's still open to receive more information in the future. Having him and Wikileaks around is a wild card for her reelection. I wouldn't be shocked if she takes them down.
Lord Frieza
Member
I doubt it matters much. Odds are that Clinton and her office are going to go through much higher lengths from now on to have more secure cyber security. And even if Arrange can get more, you have to remember, what we're saying now is a huge mass of e-mails from multiple years, and very little of true damaging material has come from it. Even if he continues to get information, there's not a lot of precedent that there will be all that much to damage her to begin with unless there's just an assumption Clinton will have massive scandals in the office by default.
http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/
So this shows Trump ahead. I don't know a lot about this kind of stuff, so since all these websites show different results, which one can we actually trust?
So this shows Trump ahead. I don't know a lot about this kind of stuff, so since all these websites show different results, which one can we actually trust?
Lord Frieza
Member
When you have a handful of polls saying one thing, while almost all the others are saying something differently, guess which ones are the most trustworthy.
That's scaring me. That poll was apparently the most accurate in the last 3 elections?
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-tracking-poll-most-accurate-presidential-poll/
Edit: actually, the poll now shows Clinton up by .1%?
Maedre
Banned
Lord Frieza
Member
This is literally an article from a place bragging about their own polling model haha. And Obama winning in 2012 wasn't some surprise, like this article seems to suggest. I really don't know much about this source, but a lot of this sounds pretty bad.
Iirc his reaction to the France terrorist attacks in December led to his Muslim ban proposal and gave him a very noticeable bump. I'm pretty sure that's why a lot of people think another terrorist attack will help him.
Having said that, this was during the primaries and the past month has proven that the primaries and the general are two very different things.
"A few weeks" was last week. We're into "a couple weeks" now with no sign of tightening.
What if there was some devastating election eve oppo? Doesn't seem to matter now but it would be hilarious.
A single poll doesn't mean anything. It's much better to look at prediction sites that aggregate polls and weight them based on reliability.
For example, look at New York Times' The Upshot, which is compiled by Nate Cohn:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Hillary currently has a 93% chance of winning based on his model, and halfway down the page you can see this compared to other popular prediction models, almost all of which have Hillary in the 80 to 90 percent range.
So I really would not freak out over a single poll. If prediction models start to drop, then there's cause for concern. But we're so close to the election at this point that a significant shift like that isn't likely.
This is a bad idea. Political party changes over time, and there's no "correct" amount for a particular election. It's how all those "unskewed" polls got into trouble last time.
Also, you really shouldn't trust one poll, maybe they were lucky the first two times (they were off by 2.3 the other). That's why poll aggregates like election.princeton.edu are the most accurate.
Empyrean Heaven
Member
Most college students/millenials are democrat, not to mention voter ID laws in some states are heavily biased against african-americans who mostly vote democrat.
We really need to overhaul the voting system in this country. Look at Norway. You can vote with your frigging smartphone, and they have near 100 percent turnout and next to no voter fraud.
Empyrean Heaven
Member
This Nintendo ad is perfect for Trump.
Do we really have to associate my favorite gaming company with him?
He doesn't touch dic (yet) so at least safe on that for now.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Just did a quick look around on Youtube and lots of Trump supporters are going on about a poll that shows Trump 67% vs Hillary 19%. That poll comes from the esteemed Arizona Freedom Alliance. It was done in August but the videos pushing this dont mention who did the poll or when. From the comments theres going to be lots of shocked people come November 8.
Haunted
Member
Let's just hope there won't be riots on November 9 so people can enjoy some good old fashioned Schadenfreude in peace.
EYEL1NER
Member
I hadn't ever looked into anything like that. My comment was coming from almost 20% of the cities population being either active duty or federal civilians. You've got Fort Carson, Schriever AFB, Cheyenne Mountain, the Air Force Academy, Peterson AFB... Within those are NORAD, the headquarters for Space Command, and more. So it would make sense that in a city where the military/DoD is responsible for a third economy, they vote republican.
Now that you bring it up though, I have checked into it. Focus on the Family is based out of there. There are also a bunch of mega churches that sprung up in recent years. According to a couple sources, it has become a huge evangelical city in the last few decades. Dobson has endorsed Truml and declared in the Summer Thant Truml was a born-again Christian, but then backpedaled shortly after and said he didn't believe Trump. But then went on to still support Trump anyway because the thought of Hillary running the world for 8 years keeps him up at night and Trump has promised evangelical leaders to do right by them and showed off a list of SCOTUS nominees that Dobson was pleased with, and apparently 'now' is the time to trust him and have faith that he isn't a complete fucking liar.
So you are right. Seems like the city is a perfect storm of republican support. I knew from coworkers who lived in the Springs that it leaned right and was more conservative than, say, Denver, but I didn't know all that much about the evangelical movement there. So that sucks.
The realistic worst case scenario is Donald Trump in the Oval Office.
If enough people who don't support Trump think that a Trump defeat is a foregone conclusion and don't get off their asses to go vote then get used to saying President Donald Trump for at least the next 4 years.
Look at Brexit. EVERYONE, even the politicians leading the Brexit charge thought that they had lost!
8 X 11 Printer Paper
Member
Why does everyone keep on pushing this Brexit myth, here are the final 3 months of polling for both Brexit and this Election.
Massive Duck. C.M.
Banned
Do people not understand that the catching of flies is to kill them
People don't raise and breed flies
Already Torn
Banned
Well, I guess we can't all contribute to molecular genetic science! How quaint.
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