I chose my examples because their success was unknown to the studio, the studios took a chance at some original ideas. Those original ideas blew up in their face and lost them money. If those films were successful, studios would be more willing to take chances on original ideas. Dredd is a known IP, we are talking about original ideas.
Comparing an 80's budget to a current day budget just via inflation isn't exactly fair. Taking Back to the Future for example, even if you made the exact same film with the exact same special effects usage it would cost more today than it did back then. You can't just take the 20 million budget from 1985 and say it would cost 48 million to make today. Using todays technology, there is no doubt in my mind that Robert Zemeckis would have done much more visually than what we saw in the 1985 original
Dredd cost 40 million to make and it's fairly lowkey in terms of special effects even compared to Back to the Future. Cast Away cost 90 million in 2000 and what CGI usage does that film have? Flight cost 31 million, does that have any CGI?
You then bring up Christopher Nolan in the exact same argument where you say Hollywood movies cost too much to make because of CGI? Have you seen the budgets of his films? With what your saying, less reliance on CGI should equal smaller budgets but that is not the case.
Barman Begins - 150 million
The Dark Knight - 185 million
Inception - 160 million
The Dark Knight Rises - 250-300 million
Interstellar - 165 million
Dunkirk - 100-150 million
Tenet - 200 million
CGI is not the issue, it can be used well and it can be used poorly, same with physical models. I watched The Mothman Prophecies the other night and the entire final bridge scene took me out of the experience because I could tell the bridge and cars were miniature scale. It's about skill and time as to whether CGI/scale models look good or bad.
You notice Dunkirk costs the least despite having the most action? A good deal of the budget for a Nolan film comes from paying the talent, including Nolan, himself. Nolan was paid 20 million to direct Dunkirk PLUS a percentage of backend receipts. Dunkirk has the least costly cast of a Nolan film, so despite having the most set piece sequences costs the least. Nolan opted for crashing a real plane in Tenet partially because it was actually CHEAPER than building miniatures, the more real the less it costs, essentially. 200 million isn't that much either when you consider demonstrably uglier films like Avengers Endgame cost 356 million. The other thing is Nolan films on location which often costs more than doing otherwise.
You make a weird argument here, btw, you go from "exact same film with the exact same special effects usage" to the idea that Zemeckis would use today's technology, so... not the same special effects usage? Not the exact same film? There are ways filming is actually cheaper now, like shooting on digital, Nolan insists on shooting on film, it looks better.
I wouldn't call Dredd lowkey in terms of effects. It's cheap by today's standards, for sure, but I would argue we're still talking about how much less it costs for a less well known cast...
The movie Upgrade, one of the best movies of the decade with some of the best effects cost between 3 to 5 million, depending on the source. Movies can be done well on a budget similar to in the '80s but the movie also wasn't especially successful, people want big dumb CGI-filled movies that look fake, clearly, at least so long as it has MCU branding or something. Movies like The Fountain and 2001 look better than 99% of films coming out today and don't use CGI. CGI is a decent tool when needed, Nolan uses it in his films, just incredibly sparingly.
The problem with CGI, for me, is that so many films rely on it for everything and it just doesn't look great. Toy Story 3 cost as much to make as Tenet, but which one are people seeing for a thrilling effects-driven ride? Even Wall-E cost 180 million in 2008, 5 million shy of the biggest movie of that year, TDK, without any of the major talent in the cast to have to pay (half the film has no dialogue even), not to mention voice acting gets a smaller payday than acting in person. Avatar was 237 million in 2009 starring mostly little known actors, CGI being costly is pretty provable, how bad it looks is more subjective but it's probably possible to objectively measure level of detail in CGI, most movies don't come close to Transformers films by Michael Bay (which use practical effects whenever possible, including ripping in half an actual bus because even Bay knows practicals > CGI) these days even that last Star Wars suffered from some bad CGI, in particular in its overly busy climax, much different to the OT or even the prequel trilogy where the effects got better by the entry, part of the problem with CGI is number of effects studios.