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[Zippedpinhead]

I think one of the three murders last night was a 1-shot killer. It's not uncommon in these large games.

I think there are two reasonable options for how we got three killers

1: a 1-shot killer (side doesn't matter)
2: wolves have another way to kill at night (but there is some sort of restriction to nights or people in order to do the kill)

 

[FluxWaveZ]

These two were instantly jumping on the narrative, something to think about.

Now then, this is JUST a theory, but something to think about.

You yourself said:

Why there was only Two NK’s, and Three NK’s this night, my theory does not know.

Going by the numbers, what you said made sense because we had an active Guard on N1, while we didn't on N2. What made for that discrepancy in kills?

Though, this is the first I've heard of a "strongman" role (there weren't any in the first WW game); that also sounds plausible, but it also sounds kind of unstoppable? Unless, going by the Mafiascum wiki, it was a one-shot ability.

 

[Burbeting]

You yourself said:

Going by the numbers, what you said made sense because we had an active Guard on N1, while we didn't on N2. What made for that discrepancy in kills?

Though, this is the first I've heard of a "strongman" role (there weren't any in the first WW game); that also sounds plausible, but it also sounds kind of unstoppable? Unless, going by the Mafiascum wiki, it was a one-shot ability.

Yeah, my theory is not perfect at all. It does not know, why there was two kills N1, and three kills N2. That's what it is: A theory. The main point is to remind that there is a godo chance Cabot was not able to Guard anyone N1, like some people might assume.

I think there has been a strongman roles in gafia before? Not 100% sure, but I have some sort of memory that there has been. It's a rarer role though, for sure. But so is a sleepwalker.

 

[MattyG]

I think one of the three murders last night was a 1-shot killer. It's not uncommon in these large games.

I think there are two reasonable options for how we got three killers

1: a 1-shot killer (side doesn't matter)
2: wolves have another way to kill at night (but there is some sort of restriction to nights or people in order to do the kill)

The one-shot killer sounds most plausible to me. I just can't see the wolves having 2 ways to kill, unless the restriction is very hard to get around.

 

[Trigger]

I definitely think that Cabot was killed by a wolf,but I don't think that they have a double kill. I think that the deaths are the result of two neutrals.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

I definitely think that Cabot was killed by a wolf,but I don't think that they have a double kill. I think that the deaths are the result of two neutrals.

I assumed there was a serial killer from the start just like in the Dream, but the possibility of another killer, huh.

That would explain why there were 3 kills on N2, but not for 2 kills on N1. No way did both 3rd party killers aim for the same target on N1, so it must instead be a limitation like CrimsonFist suggested... that is, if we're going with Burbeting's theory that cabot actually did try to protect Drop and failed.

 

[Burbeting]

So then, these votes happened in the span of less than ten minutes. Time to introduce our bandwagon:

Oops.

VOTE:Style

Vote: Style

Ok then, will switch to style, seems like Time isn't getting much traction and I do believe GLT is town.

VOTE: Style

Oh shit I don't have an active vote!

vote: style

It's mainly choosing the lesser of two evils here, I'm a choosing to trust greatlors tiger's Role claim and fall back on my style read from day 1.

Here's to surviving the night!

I have no real read on either but if I had to pick one of them, it's definitely Style. When he was under pressure on Day 1, he immediately jumped on the chance to shift attention to Dave and me.

Vote: Style

NOTES:

If we assume GreatLord Tiger is scum, and he had to be saved on the last minute (Scum had already lost one member in N1, and they might have been afraid of another loss in N2), they might have not been able to properly communicate on a solid plan what to do, which resulted in this bandwagon.

Makai's vote happened four minutes after Zippedpinheads, so I assume he already saw all those votes happening. Scum Makai would most likely evade voting here in a bandwagon, he wouldn't want to look Scummy by voting Style. So this gives makai some town points, maybe?

Trigger and Batsnacks voted on the very same minute, Swamped and Zipped voted few minutes afterwards. However, Swamped and Zipped have typed some words plus to the vote, so there is a good chance they didn't see the votes of Trigger/Bats.

There is a good chance there is scum here, at least one. However, this assumption works only if GreatLord Tiger is scum. He is still my strongest scum read for now, so...

VOTE: GreatLord Tiger

 

[Fireblend]

These two were instantly jumping on the narrative, something to think about.

Now then, this is JUST a theory, but something to think about.

I agreed with your post because it's the simplest explanation given the results we have, and thus the likeliest. I'm a fan of Occam's Razor, and I'm likely to op pose some other convoluted narrative to help explain it like I did with the baker madness or Xam's role theories before I accept that that scenario is also "just a theory", but it's one with a low burden of proof. If any evidence comes to light pointing in another direction, I'll be the first on line to consider whether a second scenario became more likely. When thinking of a wolf double kill I thought of a wolf having a similar condition to Terra that would awaken when a fellow wolf died and Terra's death fulfilled it and granted a second NK, but it's probably even more farfetched than yours.

About Cabot having been switched/blocked/overriden in some way, I can see that happening too, but then that wouldn't explain why there were only 2 NKs on night 1 and now we got 3, as you said. I can see his day 2 comments going either way: signaling that he did attempt to protect Drop and something prevented it, or trying to distance himself from the Doctor role when in reality he did protect whoever would have been that night's third victim, like I already said.

I'm on my phone so I can't write much more, gimme a couple of hours to get home and to a PC so I can do some reading and settle on a first vote and provide more useful thoughts.

 

[Fireblend]

I think one of the three murders last night was a 1-shot killer. It's not uncommon in these large games.

I hadn't seen this post. I'd say its in line with Cabot protecting someone on D1... maybe even more likely? I'm not sure it'd be good for town to assume this was a one time thing though. We should work with worst case scenarios.

 

[Septimus Prime]

The one-shot killer sounds most plausible to me. I just can't see the wolves having 2 ways to kill, unless the restriction is very hard to get around.

I definitely think that Cabot was killed by a wolf,but I don't think that they have a double kill. I think that the deaths are the result of two neutrals.

So I was thinking, in the last Werewolf game, there was a wolf who, when he died, would allow the wolves to get two kills for the next night. Maybe that ability got modified so that there's a wolf who gets double-kill whenever one of his teammates gets got?

 

[Fireblend]

So I was thinking, in the last Werewolf game, there was a wolf who, when he died, would allow the wolves to get two kills for the next night. Maybe that ability got modified so that there's a wolf who gets double-kill whenever one of his teammates gets got?

That's what I said in my previous post. I think it's unlikely and I worry that we could get sidetracked with yet more potential role discussion, so I'm not really going to pursue the possibility.

 

[Swamped]

VOTE: GreatLord Tiger

Interesting. We might have some overlap here. I compiled a list of people who expressed suspicions on CornBro throughout D2. I feel like there has got to be at least one wolf who was trying to 'blend in', maybe thinking Corn would be the next lynch target, or trying to appear Village.

1. Kingkitty (voted for him D2) - So far, hasn't done much to make me suspicious of him, but I'll keep an eye out. He kept his vote on Corn up until the end of the day, so I'm inclined to believe that he did really believe that Corn was scum

2. Splinter (also voted for him twice in D2) - Confirmed Village

3. GLT (voted for CornBro D2) - Claims Ordinary Village. He was the third person to vote for Corn, maybe thinking a bandwagon was about to start?

4. Zipped (expressed suspicions. Note that this reply to Splinter was unprompted, and he never explains why he's suspicious of Corn)

5. Dave (expressed suspicions, in response to Splinter's reads list.) - Meh, I still feel like the fluff is something wolves wouldn't do. They need to use their words to push their own narratives.

Also, one of Cabot's top scum was GLT. I'm willing to change my mind on GLT to see where this goes.

Top Town: Splinter, Burb, Crimson
Top Scum: Swamped, Makai, GreatLord Tiger, QuantumBro

VOTE: GreatLord Tiger

 

[Xamtheking]

Vote: Greatlord Tiger
At bare minimum you need to post more

 

[Zippedpinhead]

I'm thinking of role claiming today.

With the loss of our doctor/protector my role will never get get us information,

However! I'm thinking my death could help some people (like if we have a vigilante vs a serial killer.)

I'm an insomniac watcher, but I can only see people who visit me.

Because of a fairly obvious limitation in my role, it only works to find non-killing roles. So I was never going to say anything as I was just as likely to reveal town as scum. obviously I will see killing people, BUT if they kill me I can't say anything because I'll be dead. Since I can no longer be saved, I can at least help the VG stay away from me.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

vote: greatlordtiger

I agree with what has been posted so far and think that he is just as likely as any other person to be scum (given what limited information I know)

 

[Zippedpinhead]

vote: greatlord tiger

Voting fail

 

[Xamtheking]

vote: greatlordtiger

I agree with what has been posted so far and think that he is just as likely as any other person to be scum (given what limited information I know)

Who visited you, if anyone, insomniwatcher?

 

[Makai]

Who visited you, if anyone, insomniwatcher?

Vote: Xamtheking

 

[Xamtheking]

Vote: Xamtheking

Care to explain your vote?

 

[Zippedpinhead]

Who visited you, if anyone, insomniwatcher?

I will not say because we could hit a town switcher or investigator role.

Sorry but I'm just trying to focus our neutral killer role and keep the town away from me...

 

[Xamtheking]

I will not say because we could hit a town switcher or investigator role.

Sorry but I'm just trying to focus our neutral killer role and keep the town away from me...

Yeah, sorry, I forgot about that
Then I have a follow up question
Did either I or Ultron visit you?

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Because of a fairly obvious limitation in my role, it only works to find non-killing roles. So I was never going to say anything as I was just as likely to reveal town as scum. obviously I will see killing people, BUT if they kill me I can't say anything because I'll be dead. Since I can no longer be saved, I can at least help the VG stay away from me.

Yeah, and now you've also helped the werewolves from staying away from you and increased the chances of them hitting a juicier target because your role is pointless against them, especially since their Dream Wolf is dead and, unless Ultron or Xam are actually wolf-aligned sleepwalkers, the only people who would visit you would be town.

 

[Xamtheking]

Yeah, and now you've also helped the werewolves from staying away from you and increased the chances of them hitting a juicier target because your role is pointless against them, especially since their Dream Wolf is dead and, unless Ultron or Xam are actually wolf-aligned sleepwalkers, the only people who would visit you would be town.

They could have other random-related roles
Such as an Investigator who doesn't get to choose who he visits each night, but knows who he visited and their role

 

[MattyG]

I voted for them yesterday, they're looking like our best lead at this point, and it looks like that's how things are going today anyways so

VOTE: GreatLord Tiger

 

[CrimsonFist]

Palmer, what happens if we hit a majority of votes before the deadline and I haven't nominated a deputy yet?

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Whoa there guys, hold on. How many are required for a majority? I feel like we're getting close.

They could have other random-related roles
Such as an Investigator who doesn't get to choose who he visits each night, but knows who he visited and their role

Sure, I assumed that the sleepwalker would basically be the only role that visits people randomly at night, but I guess there's that. Point is, though, that still seems to be a pointless role claim, and the day just started.

 

[Palmer_v1]

Palmer, what happens if we hit a majority of votes before the deadline and I haven't nominated a deputy yet?

Rng

 

[Makai]

Care to explain your vote?

I was in the middle of wondering what the hell Zipped was thinking. His explanation makes no sense. We lose our Doctor and suddenly his role is useless? Many roles have non-lethal night actions. Zipped's job was to expose liars - e.g. an Ordinary Villager visited him. He can also help steer Town away from lynching potential Town power roles. What have we gotten from this claim? Nothing. Terrible play, Zipped.

Then you jump in to fish out some power roles. Hell no. Zipped is foolish Town. You are scum.

 

[Xamtheking]

I was in the middle of wondering what the hell Zipped was thinking. His explanation makes no sense. We lose our Doctor and suddenly his role is useless? Many roles have non-lethal night actions. Zipped's job was to expose liars - e.g. an Ordinary Villager visited him. He can also help steer Town away from lynching potential Town power roles. What have we gotten from this claim? Nothing. Terrible play, Zipped.

Then you jump in to fish out some power roles. Hell no. Zipped is foolish Town. You are scum.

I messed up. It happens, not used to this.
Ironically, I completely agree with your evaluation of Zipped and his reveal

 

[MattyG]

Whoa there guys, hold on. How many are required for a majority? I feel like we're getting close.

I'm not sure exactly how many we need for a majority, but I think we'd need quite a few more (maybe 10 or 11 at this point?).

 

[Xamtheking]

I'm not sure exactly how many we need for a majority, but I think we'd need quite a few more (maybe 10 or 11 at this point?).

Whoa there guys, hold on. How many are required for a majority? I feel like we're getting close.



Sure, I assumed that the sleepwalker would basically be the only role that visits people randomly at night, but I guess there's that. Point is, though, that still seems to be a pointless role claim, and the day just started.

12, by my count, for a major

 

[FluxWaveZ]

I messed up. It happens, not used to this.
Ironically, I completely agree with your evaluation of Zipped and his reveal

Man, how many times have you said something like this since this game has started? You do remember that this is the reason people wanted your head on Day 1, right?

I fucked up, man

Any defense I could make at this point probably wouldn't get me anywhere.

 

[Swamped]

I want to read Rats, Fireblend this Day Phase. Fireblend has been more active than Rats but I feel like I haven't paid close attention to either.

 

[Xamtheking]

Man, how many times have you said something like this since this game has started? You do remember that this is the reason people wanted your head on Day 1, right?

I was just a little too eager for information, and right after I posted it, I realized my mistake.
If it was legal, I would have edited my post

 

[batsnacks]

Okay I think I have something. I kind of wanna see what will happen before I go into details though. What do people think about flux?

Vote: FluxWaveZ

 

[Xamtheking]

Okay I think I have something. I kind of wanna see what will happen before I go into details though. What do people think about flux?

Vote: FluxWaveZ

Here's what happened
What are you on about?

 

[FluxWaveZ]

Okay I think I have something. I kind of wanna see what will happen before I go into details though. What do people think about flux?

I'm not going to pull a FluxWaveZ vs. Darryl here because I know how that kind of thing goes, but I'm getting tired of your schtick, batsnacks.

I'M GOING to vote CornBurrito until someone who "scumreads" him can tell me why I'm voting him. You best do some digging!

You like saying something out of nowhere and telling others "Go find out this cryptic/nonsensical message I'm trying to convey!" Others called you out for it, too.

 

[Swamped]

I definitely think that Cabot was killed by a wolf,but I don't think that they have a double kill. I think that the deaths are the result of two neutrals.

Would you like to elaborate on why you assume it was Cabot who was the wolf kill? And by 'two neutrals', are you postulating that there is another killing faction apart from the wolves?

Town is losing. 1 Wolf vs 6 Villagers dead. We just lost our top three posters and the rest of us need to put in a lot more effort. The end of Day 2 was shameful - hardly anybody showed up and Style breezed to an uncontested lynch.

No need for that doom and gloom! If we have 2 deaths per night, we have at least 4 mislynches I think? (assuming 5 more wolves remaining, which is on the high side admittedly).

If we continue to have three deaths per night however, hm. You may have a point in that case. That just feels like too much, and one of those killing powers has got to be an x-shot.

 

[Swamped]

Okay I think I have something. I kind of wanna see what will happen before I go into details though. What do people think about flux?

Vote: FluxWaveZ

I really think that batsnacks is Town, and so far I haven't been able to understand why Flux insists on batsnacks as scum. Flux keeps bringing up the same points (regarding Batsnacks 'sheeping' people on D1, even though batsnacks has explained his behavior satisfactorily in my eyes). I think Flux's and my thinking patterns are just so different, he could be scum.

Now that our top three posters are dead, I'm willing to shake things up a bit.

Also, I want to see Flux vs Darryl Part II >

VOTE: FluxWaveZ

 

[Xamtheking]

I really think that batsnacks is Town, and so far I haven't been able to understand why Flux insists on batsnacks as scum. Flux keeps bringing up the same points (regarding Batsnacks 'sheeping' people on D1, even though batsnacks has explained his behavior satisfactorily in my eyes). I think Flux's and my thinking patterns are just so different, he could be scum.

Now that our top three posters are dead, I'm willing to shake things up a bit.

Also, I want to see Flux vs Darryl Part II >

VOTE: FluxWaveZ

You know what happened the last time we had Flux vs Darryl?
The game imploded
Also, Flux has been semi-active, and the people we need to be pressing are the ones who have been hiding in the shadows, like GLT, MattyG, Trigger, and Timeaisis

 

[Swamped]

You know what happened the last time we had Flux vs Darryl?
The game imploded
Also, Flux has been semi-active, and the people we need to be pressing are the ones who have been hiding in the shadows, like GLT, MattyG, Trigger, and Timeaisis

You have a good point about chasing the blending players (I would also add Rats to your list). Right now though it seems like GLT has plenty of pressure in the form of votes, does not mean I have forgotten about him.

 

[Fireblend]

I'm going to read through the thread in a while, but for now I'm gonna put a vote down early:

Vote: Xamtheking

You've been blatantly anti town ever since this game started. I don't know how many times it's good for, but that newbie excuse of yours is way past its expiration date. You've been on my scum list since day 1 and I'm starting to believe that scum having a member hide in plain sight after seeing how town was willing to give him a pass just for being new isn't that unlikely.

 

[Warxard]

Holy shit a triple kill?!?!? wtf

Ugh. what a waste to find out Cabot's alignment at this point...:////://

I'll be back later with reads.

 

[batsnacks]

I think we can get something by examining why cabot chose to protect a sleepwalker over Drop, re-posting cause I think it's important:

A good doctor protects role claims in people he/she trusts, otherwise he/she protects people who he believe are good for town or read as a PR.

Not protecting a confirmed townie via public role, with no other official claims on the table is terrible play. Absolutely terrible.

That's all I'll say.

I don't see much use in protecting sleepwalkers.

 

[CrimsonFist]

I think we can get something by examining why cabot chose to protect a sleepwalker over Drop, re-posting cause I think it's important:

Wouldn't the assumption to draw from those posts be that he didn't chose to protect a sleepwalker over Drop?

 

[batsnacks]

Wouldn't the assumption to draw from those posts be that he didn't chose to protect a sleepwalker over Drop?

So, maybe cabot did try to save Drop but the wolves have some ability that bypasses protection?

Scum going for Drop straight off the bat makes sense from their point of view as a kill (confirmed town, you want uncertainty in town) but it makes less sense as a first kill when we know no other information.

Did they use it as a test to see if he'd be protected? did they know they could bypass protection?

Fireblend and flux seemed to go for the "cabot successfully saved someone night 1" theory though.

 

[ultron87]

Are we ignoring the "Burbeting has survived, but at what cost" part of the day start text? It being in red suggests it is a game action and is saying he got saved by something and that that might be responsible for at least some of the corpse pile.

 

[Burbeting]

So, maybe cabot did try to save Drop but the wolves have some ability that bypasses protection?

Fireblend and flux seemed to go for the "cabot successfully saved someone night 1" theory though.

Yeah, I agree with you here, it's a good possiblity. I went through some of the same thoughts in the previous page.

---

So Zipped claims amnesiac Watcher? Something about that claim bothers me at the moment, the role seems really anti-town in general (since he can only watch himself, he can only see PR's, no killing roles. So outing any of those roles would be weird?). Hmmh.

---

Ultron, yeah, I noticed that as well. First I thought it might be just weird flavor thing, but there could be something going on there, not sure what though.

 

[CrimsonFist]

If nothing else, amnesiac watcher adds support to the idea which was raised a day or two ago that the game is dream, or sleep themed, so it makes the sleepwalker claims seem slightly more believable.

And I assume it's just flavour. Otherwise we could also assume that we have more of Tanner Bob's pets running around too.

 

[Ourobolus]

Are we ignoring the "Burbeting has survived, but at what cost" part of the day start text? It being in red suggests it is a game action and is saying he got saved by something and that that might be responsible for at least some of the corpse pile.

fluff. It's a joke because Burb always dies N2.