What do you think will sell more Hogwarts Legacy, Starfield, Spider-man 2 or Breath of The wild?

Which will end up selling the most by the end of the year?

  • Breath of The Wild 2

  • Starfield

  • Spider-Man 2

  • Hogwarts Legacy

Results are only viewable after voting.
The_Mike said:
I'm pretty sure that even if Starfield fails it will still be a commercial success given it has slapped Bethesda on it.

I imagine there's a lot of pre orders on the game and we haven't even seen proper gameplay lol.
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Starfield can't be pre-ordered yet by the way, not that I've seen.
 
I would of said Starfield bya a country mile, but with Gamepass you just never know. I'm still going to pick Starfield as i assume we are talking lifetime sales here, and i would expect Starfield to eventually hit 30-40mil, and i'm not sure the others will.
Having said that, with the way Switch games sell, BOTW2 could very well hit 30+mil lifetime sales.
 
It'll probably be between Spider-Man 2 and BOTW 2 (But BOTW2 will have a bigger chance of coming out on top if the next switch doesn't have Backwards compatibility). Then comes Starfield and Hogwarts Legacy, but I honestly don't know which will sell more between the two... I can see Hogwarts selling more for the release year and Starfield selling more LTD.
 
I voted for Hogwarts Legacy.

- There isn't a Harry Potter game at that scale, let alone a single player game like this one in ages
- Possibility of choosing your house instead of being a direct Harry Potter game(meaning only playing as Harry Potter itself)
- Multiplataform
 
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If Starfield wasn't a gamepass title it'd easily take the lead followed by Zelda but it is, so I expect that to eat into the unit sales.

Zelda followed by Starfield, then Hogwartz and lastly Spiderman.

Hogwartz is the wildcard here though as all the other Harry Potter games have made mid sales but this one can be the combo breaker.

Either way imo Zelda will be first or second, while Spiderman squarely third.
 
Those underestimating the sales potential of Hogwarts reminds me of the Nicheman arguments

I think its dependant on it being good, but if it is then it could make huge money and has the natural advantage of multiplat the others don't have
 
So a multi plat game about a billion dollar franchise also on the switch or a follow up to one of the best games ever ?

I'm betting either BoTW 2 or Harry Potter switch being the biggest seller.
 
Spiderman 2 would need a 1:1 tie in ratio. If PS5 didnt have stock issues it might have reached like 60-70 million consoles by the time SM2 launched but get got absolutely devastated by covid. Probably will be less than 35 million sales by end of 2023. No chance.

Botw2 will get 25 million sold cause Nintendo created a system where people buy anything they make.

Hogwarts it depends on how it reviews, could be like 12 mil, could be 30. I doubt it though, my guess is 15 million lifetime.

Starfield is on Gamepass so probably like 15 million to 20 million.
 
I'm confused why people think BotW 2 would outsell Starfield?

It's… a Bethesda RPG. And it'll be on Xbox systems + Steam. What am I missing??

BotW 2 won't sell as much as the first. For various reasons. But historically, direct sequels on the same hardware never do as well as the first. It's taken BotW over 5 years to sell what it has.

Look at Mario Galaxy 2 over Galaxy 1. It's just lightning in a bottle. And even if the follow-up is a better game, it just won't do as well. Not unless it also releases on a new Nintendo platform.
 
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Robbinhood said:
Spiderman 2 would need a 1:1 tie in ratio. If PS5 didnt have stock issues it might have reached like 60-70 million consoles by the time SM2 launched but get got absolutely devastated by covid. Probably will be less than 35 million sales by end of 2023. No chance.

Botw2 will get 25 million sold cause Nintendo created a system where people buy anything they make.

Hogwarts it depends on how it reviews, could be like 12 mil, could be 30. I doubt it though, my guess is 15 million lifetime.

Starfield is on Gamepass so probably like 15 million to 20 million.
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Whatever BotW has sold, cut that in half.
If the game only releases on Switch, that's what I would expect it to do. Extremely good sales, even so. But lightning can only be captured once. BotW defined this generation, it defined the Switch. It's not gonna happen again with a direct sequel.
 
remember_spinal said:
So far, the biggest 2023 titles we know of which do you think will be the sales king?

  • Hogwarts Harry Potter might be in contention with Spider-man (marvel) for biggest IP, The advantage is its on all major platforms even switch
  • Breath of The Wild, it's Nintendo, it's Zelda, coming off 28m copies sold, although this one isn't releasing on new hardware
  • Spider-Man 2, Sonys biggest game and probably the most popular superhero IP today, can it do better than 2018 at over 20m?
  • Starfield, biggest single player xbox exclusive and next big Todd Howard original IP, can it live up to Skyrims whopping 30M+ game sales?
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I'd probably go with Spiderman.

Really weird to describe Starfield solely in the xbox context. Bethesda RPGs are seriously big on PC. That platform exists, you know.
 
Ozriel said:
I'd probably go with Spiderman.

Really weird to describe Starfield solely in the xbox context. Bethesda RPGs are seriously big on PC. That platform exists, you know.
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Starfield will absolutely sell 15-20 million +. I am shocked it's being outvoted by BotW 2. I just don't see that happening at all.
 
Dr. Wilkinson said:
Starfield will absolutely sell 15-20 million +. I am shocked it's being outvoted by BotW 2. I just don't see that happening at all.
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Gamepass will take some sales off on console.
PC gamers will most probably pick the game up on Steam for modding.

BOTW 2 will be a sales powerhouse. Larger install base, sequel to an excellent first title and Nintendo first party games seem to sell very well these days.
 
This is definitely a tough one

I believe this would be between Spider-Man 2 and Starfield and Zelda. I think Spider-Man 2 is going to end up breaking almost every major record for a Sony published title and to come off of 20 plus million units on top of the potential sales from PC in the future I believe it's going to shatter every major record for Sony.

Starfield on the other hand if it becomes the new RPG pillar like Elder Scrolls and Fallout it can move massive units as well, on the low end it could be at 14 million or so similar to Fallout 4 on the high end it could go past 30 million.

It's difficult to tell and it's going to depend on how it's received but I believe maybe it's going to be on the low end for a few reasons it's going to be on less platforms than those previous titles and the Sci-Fi type setting seems to get less sales from Bethesda titles.


I think with breath of the Wild coming off of 20 plus million units I believe the sequel is going to do just as good if not better especially if it also launches on a new Nintendo portable.

So I think Zelda and Spider-Man are very safe bets based on how the previous titles performed


That's not to say a newcomer like Starfield or Hogwarts cannot create some massive install base of players that we've never seen prior.
 
I would assume Breath of the Wild 2 will have a very high attach rate (I think that's the correct term).
 
I voted for Spider-man 2 but if I could I would change to Zelda BoTW.

Seems like BoTW sold more than 27m and Spider-Man sold more than 20m, so Spider-Man doesn't seem to have much of a chance.

Starfield doesn't stand a chance, they'll probably be to ashamed to share how much copies the game will sell given that it's on Gamepass.
 
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With Starfield being on game pass, a traditional sales metric is going to be useless for it. Otherwise it's probably the biggest game in terms of anticipation and also potentially available player base.
 
You guys are not thinking.. Harry Potter has more mass appeal than any of those other games and it's on almost everything
 
Im inclined to say BotW2, then Spiderman 2. Hogwarts Legacy will sell well if it ends up being a good game and the more I see of it, the more I am intrigued.

Starfield won't even break the sales record due to Gamepass. In terms of time played, I think it will be between pretty good.
 
I would say BOTW.

But also whatever Pokemon they release next year if they release one, whatever cod comes after this year's and FIFA 24 (under its new name) will all sell more, so yeah.
 
I don't put starfield in the running. Skyrim only edges out BoTW sales after being out for a decade and being rereleased at least 5 times. I expect starfield to follow a similar trajectory.

Harry Potter will sell well. I think reaching original BotW numbers is going to be a tough ask. FIFA represents the most popular sport on the planet and a rapid hungry fanbase. FIFA has only exceeded 25 million sales once or twice and I think only the most recent version topped the original BotW. I don't see Harry Potter doing those numbers.

My guess is that Harry Potter sells around 15 million units and BotW 2 sells at least 20 million copies.
 
Nintendo fans actually buy games and that's why they buy their console, and botw2 is the sequel to the best selling zelda game ever made. when it comes to sales: Botw2 > Starfield > Spiderman > harry potter
 
There's like 107 million Switch owners who will probably own a Zelda game at some point. My money would be on BoTW2. People are going to go nutz for BoTW2.

Starfield isn't Skyrim though. You have people who might not be into space. It's not like this is TESVI. Harry Potter fans are a hit and miss. You have fans who have had their time and that's that. I don't know if that's going to mean top sales. You have HP stuff that's probably sitting in garbage landfills. Spider-Man 2 will be successful, but I bet it'll sell less than the first due to how they've made a Remaster and now a PC port of the original. Isn't that how this works? That's just my guess.
 
Zelda will be the most

Starfield will be the least in unit sales because Gamepass, but Microsoft will hype up the day 1 million player count

Hogwarts isn't going to be as good as everyone hoped but they won't know until after they bought it because they preordered, but the preorders will be huge

Spider Man will be second in unit sales

i guess
 
ReBurn said:
Hogwarts isn't going to be as good as everyone hoped but they won't know until after they bought it because they preordered, but the preorders will be huge
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It's an open world action adventure RPG with create-a-character/select-a-school with multiple different gameplay systems in place(like potion making or growing specific plants) to enchance the core game and entice players. Even if it ends up at B game quality, it's already miles ahead of where it could have been. Literally their biggest and only misstep has been the multiplayer aspect, but I'm sure people will find a way around that to make the game a more social experience.
 
Hogwarts Legacy imo as it's something refreshingly different.

The only thing that might harm it is
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March Climber said:
It's an open world action adventure RPG with create-a-character/select-a-school with multiple different gameplay systems in place(like potion making or growing specific plants) to enchance the core game and entice players. Even if it ends up at B game quality, it's already miles ahead of where it could have been. Literally their biggest and only misstep has been the multiplayer aspect, but I'm sure people will find a way around that to make the game a more social experience.
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Don't get me wrong, I hope it's fantastic. I've watched the hype videos so I know what they're going for. The license alone is going to sell tons of copies. It just feels to me like it is a bit ambitious for the studio making it so the hype feels weird. They're not known for their open world create your own character multiple system RPG 's. I hope I'm wrong. I really do.
 
I'd say long run would have been Starfield BUT with gamepass boxed sales are no longer a priority.

Spiderman is going to appeal and sell to casual kids like hotcakes and Hogwarts is on multiple systems.

BOTW2 will probably be the better game of them all but not the top seller.
 
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In this case payer count is a probably a better metric because millions of people will get starfield via game pass.


Though I think it will be BOTW2.

Spiderman 2 will be releasing only on PS5 first and it's install base will be significantly less then the PS4s in 2018, so I don't think it will do quite as well as the first.
 
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spiderman 2 or breath of the wild 2

but harry potter also have huge fanbase so remain to be seen
 
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Robbinhood said:
Spiderman 2 would need a 1:1 tie in ratio. If PS5 didnt have stock issues it might have reached like 60-70 million consoles by the time SM2 launched but get got absolutely devastated by covid. Probably will be less than 35 million sales by end of 2023. No chance.
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Sony is planning to ship 18m by March 2023, so even if they fall short again they would have about 33-35 million by next Spring. By the time spider-man 2 comes out which would likely be Fall again, it will be about 45
 
Fuz said:
So many of you guys forgot Skyrim already.
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Spider-Man 1 already beat it in less time and on less systems and without relaunching a dozen or so times.

And that is Skyrim, where around half of its sales would have been on PlayStation, vs a brand new IP that already received poor reception from its last showing.

They aren't even in the same galaxy sales wise. (Pun!)
 
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bitbydeath said:
Spider-Man 1 already beat it in less time and on less systems and without relaunching a dozen or so times.

And that is Skyrim, where around half of its sales would have been on PlayStation, vs a brand new IP that already received poor reception from its last showing.

They aren't even in the same galaxy sales wise. (Pun!)
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Yeah skyrim has re-released like 6 times on like 10 platforms and its not less platform this time (no nintendo, no playstation) then add gamepass to the mix.
 
Sosokrates said:
Why not, I mean what's the point in saying which sells the most? Is it just dick measuring contest for who gets the highest sales?
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Yeah, so what though? Its a fun thought experiment considering they are some of the biggest single player games coming out

If you feel like its unfair make a thread about player counts
 
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remember_spinal said:
Yeah, so what though? Its a fun thought experiment considering they are some of the biggest single player games coming out

If you feel like its unfair make a thread about player counts
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Thought experiment leading to what? OP didn't say what it's meant to mean.

I'm guessing that most People will think the game that sells the most is the most successful, but into today's market I don't think that's the case anymore.
 
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Sosokrates said:
Thought experiment leading to what? OP didn't say what it's meant to mean.

I'm guessing that most People will think the game that sells the most is the most successful, but into today's market I don't think that's the case anymore.
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It's a flawed thought experiment, as in later posts OP himself acknowledges that people will probably be playing Starfield via game pass.

So it's extremely likely it will not be "selling" as many retail units as the other mentions here but at any given time it will have the most player engagement owing to it's day 1 availability on a sub service.
 
adamsapple said:
It's a flawed thought experiment, as in later posts OP himself acknowledges that people will probably be playing Starfield via game pass.

So it's extremely likely it will not be "selling" as many retail units as the other mentions here but at any given time it will have the most player engagement owing to it's day 1 availability on a sub service.
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The thread would be better if it had some stated motives behind it. E.g what conclusions is OP trying to draw from this information.
 
It's BOTW 2.

Not because I'm buying it, but because there's more Switch owners out there that have to buy the game, rather than invest in a sub like Xbox/PC users for Starfield.

Spider-Man 2 obviously has the draw. If it released on PS4 as well, it would be my answer, but SM2 is next-gen only and the PS5 won't have shipped enough units in time to match pace of the Switch.

Hogwarts, I think, has potential…
But I believe lifetime sales will depend on the quality of the game. It could end up in a Marvel's Avengers situation with poor execution despite the strength in IP.
 
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