The human species can adapt to any environmental change. We may lose a lot of our numbers in a change, but we can adapt to any change that doesn't happen extremely quickly. We have the ability to survice nuclear war as well - just in really small numbers in various government bomb shelter, submerged submarines, etc.
The only things that we can't survive in the list provided are: black hole, large enough asteroid, and alien civilization that intends to eat/kill us all.
Of those the probability of black hole is too small, hostile civilization is pretty small, but large enough asteroid is pretty big. However given that out ability to deal with asteroids increases over time I'll say asteroid for the next 200 years, then alien civilization.
The disease one is high on the likely scale, but human beings generally have the ability to deal with these sorts of things and we likely wouldn't get wiped out by them. Same goes for zombie outbreak
![Smile :) :)](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7)