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[Sapiens]

Think about the last 4 generations of home console gaming (and to a lesser extent, those potent portables).

8-bit era: Nintendo, Sega and Atari. Atari and Sega doing very poorly. All major players (for their time).

16-bit: Nintendo, Sega and NEC/TTi. NEC failing in the US, MD doing poorly in jpn. Jaguar just totally sucking.

32-bit: Sony wins, Nintendo is merely O.K. and Sega eventually failing miserable (especially in the US).

Current gen: Sony, again, rules the coop, MS doing surprisingly well with XBOX. Nintendo living in their own world with GC and Sega DC....well, not to call it a miserable failure, but it failed miserably.

Will we have at least one loser this generation? I see potential reasons for all 3 new systems doing poorly:

Sony: Too late, too expensive? XBOX 360 takes the reigns?

360: Too early, too underpowered, people wait for PS3 like they did with PS2?

Revolution: Too gimmicky, classics dont translate well... hardcore ninfans lost and general public apathy?

Then again, I can see how all three can co-exist, mainly due to how different Rev is. If it takes off, and PS3 and 360 capture similar sized shares, the next gen bodes well for all three.

Should be really interesting to watch. I wish I had the average joe consumer conceptions of these machines. As it stands, I want all three and its hard for me to recognise faults. The pattern does dictate that we should have a loser amongst the big players though.

So, where would you put your money for failure?

Edit: the title.

 

[argon]

Dreamcast wasn't a failure.. at least not critically. And if Sega stuck with it I think they could have at least broken even on it.

As the market expands, there will always be room for more players. But this gen's big failures will be 3rd party developers like Capcom and Ubisoft.

 

[Mihail]

The Phantom

 

[Musashi Wins!]

The Revolution controller will probably be a system mover.

Unfortunately, those will be PS3 systems.

 

[Kung Fu Jedi]

The Phantom

Beaten to the punch!

 

[Mihail]

The Revolution controller will probably be a system mover.

Unfortunately, those will be PS3 systems.

Hehe. In NA -- possibly. But everyone should admit that it will do awesome (awesome doesn't mean PS3 numbers) in Japan. That alone will keep it from being a giant failure.

 

[Drensch]

32-bit: Sony wins, Nintendo is merely O.K. and Sega eventually failing miserable (especially in the US).

I wouldn't call that an accurate assessment. Nintendo made a killing with the N64. Arguably their most sucessful venture ever.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I think all three consoles will be disappointments but consumers will be stuck trying to pick between the three anyways.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

The Revolution controller will probably be a system mover.

Unfortunately, those will be PS3 systems.

I need that... I SEE WHAT YOU DID THERE OWL

 

[Sapiens]

I wouldn't call that an accurate assessment. Nintendo made a killing with the N64. Arguably their most sucessful venture ever.

You're likely absolutely right. That is only my perception. Comparing PSone and N64 shelf space, content, Third party support. Relative to the Psone, i feel it did okay. maybe the use of the term -merely- is strong.

 

[Mrbob]

The Revolution controller will probably be a system mover.

Unfortunately, those will be PS3 systems.

This is good.

DS has done great in Japan. But then again Nintendo owns the portable market. Somehow this dominance will translate to the console arena? I doubt it. Who knows, though. Revolution will probably have some cooking simulator which will sell over a million copies and push systems in Japan.

 

[Mihail]

This is good.

DS has done great in Japan. But then again Nintendo owns the portable market. Somehow this dominance will translate to the console arena? I doubt it. Who knows, though. Revolution will probably have some cooking simulator which will sell over a million copies and push systems in Japan.

Fission Mailed? Man, I'm on a spam roll today. I gotta stop it. But people just keep supplying the ammo.

 

[AniHawk]

The only giant failure for next-gen so far is Perfect Dark Zero.

DELAY THE FUCKING GAME.

 

[GaimeGuy]

I like how Nintendo did OK during the 32-bit gen and MS did surprisingly well this gen when both the Xbox and GC combined sales are just a few million higher than the N64's, which was also Nintendo's most financially successful console ever (and the Xbox is far from a financial success).

I mean, Xbox = surprisingly well and N64 = OK, when N64 sales = 2x Xbox sales and N64 earned like 3-4 billion as opposed to the Xbox losing 4 billion.

 

[AniHawk]

I like how Nintendo did OK during the 32-bit gen and MS did surprisingly well this gen when both the Xbox and GC combined sales are just a few million higher than the N64's, which was also Nintendo's most financially successful console ever (and the Xbox is far from a financial success).

I mean, Xbox = surprisingly well and N64 = OK, when N64 sales = 2x Xbox sales and N64 earned like 3-4 billion as opposed to the Xbox losing 4 billion.

Before this gets out of control, N64 did okay relative to SNES's (and later PSX's) worldwide dominance (and wide variety of games). This gen people though MS had no chance, and relative to opinions on it before this gen, the Xbox did surprisingly well.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

I don't see the Revolution doing that well in the US. It'll do well the first year, then quickly drop off.

I just can't see westerners getting into something 'that' different than what they're accostomed to. I'd say in the end, it'll do fairly worse than the Gamecube.

I've been wrong before, though.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

I like the Dreamcast but other than the first few months of its American release, the Dreamcast was indeed a failure.

I don't think there will be any failures next gen. PS3 will slaughter the competition, Xbox 360 will gain marketshare, and I think Revolution will lose some but not enough to be considered a failure. It certainly won't be the kickstarter Nintendo fans are hoping it is.

The industry is still growing and the future of gaming rests in America and Europe, not Japan. Sales this gen have proven that. Even Japanese oriented games are getting a much more fair shake than previous generations. We'll see some major paradigm shifts and no, its not the Revolution controller.

 

[Sapiens]

I like how Nintendo did OK during the 32-bit gen and MS did surprisingly well this gen when both the Xbox and GC combined sales are just a few million higher than the N64's, which was also Nintendo's most financially successful console ever (and the Xbox is far from a financial success).

I mean, Xbox = surprisingly well and N64 = OK, when N64 sales = 2x Xbox sales and N64 earned like 3-4 billion as opposed to the Xbox losing 4 billion.

It's more than money. It's also the content. n64, although financially successful, really dissapointed beyond stuff like Mario, Zelda and Nintendo and Rare stuff.

XBOX, though a money loser, shocked me with awesome games like Ninja Gaiden, Halo, Panzer Orta, JSRF, Forza, XBOX live, etc. It really carved out a spot for itself amongst the general concioussness, didnt it? It's a success in that regard.

N64....just didnt do it for me. Im not knocking it, but I feel a lot of people who were SNES gamers moved onto the PSX...and they owned a 64 primarily to play the great nintendo stuff.

 

[koam]

I'm sorry but the Dreamcast was *the* failure this generation. I loved the console but you'd have to be blind to not realize how short its lifespan was and how Sega quit the hardware scene after releasing it.

It's more than money. It's also the content. n64, although financially successful, really dissapointed beyond stuff like Mario, Zelda and Nintendo and Rare stuff.

XBOX, though a money loser, shocked me with awesome games like Ninja Gaiden, Halo, Panzer Orta, JSRF, Forza, XBOX live, etc. It really carved out a spot for itself amongst the general concioussness, didnt it? It's a success in that regard.

N64....just didnt do it for me. Im not knocking it, but I feel a lot of people who were SNES gamers moved onto the PSX...and they owned a 64 primarily to play the great nintendo stuff.

The N64 was 10 times the console the Xbox was.

You shrugged off the console by saying "beyond stuff like Mario, Zelda and Nintendo and Rare stuff." but the importance of those games is undeniable. Ocarina of Time, Super Mario 64, Goldeneye and No Mercy are still compared to modern games when reviews are made. The games are still lingering on the top of Gamerankings.

With stuff like setting the standard for 3D Platforming, 3D camera control, Z-targetting, the analog stick and the rumble, I don't consider the N64 a dissappointment at all. It also outsold the Xbox.

The Xbox will be remembered for 3 things.

- Halo
- Xbox Live
- Hard Drive

 

[Sapiens]

I'm sorry but the Dreamcast was *the* failure this generation. I loved the console but you'd have to be blind to not realize how short its lifespan was and how Sega quit the hardware scene after releasing it.

yes, my title is misleading. Im sorry. Im talking about the next generation. I fully admit in my initialpost that DC was indeed a failure.

 

[Version 3.0]

16-bit: Nintendo, Sega and NEC/TTi. NEC failing in the US, MD doing poorly in jpn. Jaguar just totally sucking.

32-bit: Sony wins, Nintendo is merely O.K. and Sega eventually failing miserable (especially in the US).

The Jag wasn't a 16-bit latecomer, it was the Dreamcast of the 32-bit era. And you didn't mention the 3DO, which was slightly less of a failure than the Jag.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

The Jag wasn't a 16-bit latecomer, it was the Dreamcast of the 32-bit era. And you didn't mention the 3DO, which was slightly less of a failure than the Jag.

Didn't 3D0 do reasonably well in Japan? At least I know a lot of games were released for it.

 

[Zeo]

Revolution will do better than GameCube did in the US and Japan I think. PS3 won't be as big as PS2 and 360 will give it more competition.

I don't think any of them will be a GIANT failure, but if any were to fail, it would be 360 imo.

 

[Sapiens]

I dunno. The Jag really, really stunk of 16 bit latecomer...it came out the same time as 3d0, yet 3d0 offered features and visuals a leap ahead of jag.

To me, the Jag just stunk of a 1990 hardware retrofitted for 1993. The CD rom, the shitty prototype VR headset. Junk. Failure before it even started and that was 1993, well within the 16 bit gen. I just hate the Jag. Failure on all possible levels of suckatude.

The 3d0...i dont know what to say about it. It was the 32 bit gens biggest loser, but 3d0, to me, was never a a major player as Sega has historically been. 3do failing...wasnt surprised. Saturn failing..hey, wow, i thought it would do well.

Gotta give 3do props for being a far neater gizmo than the jag was in 1993.

 

[nubbe]

Revolution should be a successful venture much like the DS if the right software is there.
The interface seems to have great potential and could possibly immerse you quite well into the game if it is executed properly.
I wouldn't be surprised if either Sony or Microsoft adopts a similar approach and are more successful.

I don't think there will be any failure between the three… There will probably a more balanced market partition in the west and Microsoft should see a surge in the east.

 

[Version 3.0]

Before this gets out of control, N64 did okay relative to SNES's (and later PSX's) worldwide dominance (and wide variety of games). This gen people though MS had no chance, and relative to opinions on it before this gen, the Xbox did surprisingly well.

That all depends on how you look at things. The Xbox success is only surprising if you didn't think Microsoft could buy that kind of marketshare. Nobody else could afford to bleed money like that. Conversely, if Sega had 4 billion to lose on the Dreamcast, it might be the market leader right now, and it certainly would have more marketshare than the Xbox. And if Nintendo wasn't quite so stupid...well, nevermind.

 

[AniHawk]

Didn't 3D0 do reasonably well in Japan? At least I know a lot of games were released for it.

You're thinking of the PC Engine, I think.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

You're thinking of the PC Engine, I think.

No, I know the PC Engine did gangbusters over there.

But I think the 3d0 developed a pretty nice following. I know it wasn't in the states, but there's a shit-load of japanese-exclusive games for it. That leads me to believe that somebody was buying it.

 

[terrene]

No, the market has consolidated to the big boys. NEC and Sega were tiny ants compared to today's Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo. All three are in videogames to stay, each for their various reasons, and all three have assloads of cash. It's like the Iraq war -- THERE IS NO EXIT PLAN.

The most likely failure is Nintendo, who are up against the largest hardware company in the world AND the largest software company in the world. But, they have enough cash to ride out this (the "next") gen.

 

[koam]

yes, my title is misleading. Im sorry. Im talking about the next generation. I fully admit in my initialpost that DC was indeed a failure.

In that case, No I don't think so.

- Next Generation will probably cause the end of certain companies; I'm thinking Sega buyout and Eidos going under.

- A few mergers: Namco and Capcom are my bet.

But I don't see any of the three companies going under. Revolution is the wildcard (hit/miss situation) due to the controller but I still think it will do okay.

 

[Sapiens]

No, I know the PC Engine did gangbusters over there.

But I think the 3d0 developed a pretty nice following. I know it wasn't in the states, but there's a shit-load of japanese-exclusive games for it. That leads me to believe that somebody was buying it.

Well, Kojima thought enough of it to make Policenauts for it first. That's saying something. It just didnt come close to Saturn/PSX/64 numbers, is all.

Sigh...remember when Kojima was a nobody?? Wow.

 

[Mrbob]

Fission Mailed? Man, I'm on a spam roll today. I gotta stop it. But people just keep supplying the ammo.

 

[Version 3.0]

I dunno. The Jag really, really stunk of 16 bit latecomer...it came out the same time as 3d0, yet 3d0 offered features and visuals a leap ahead of jag.

To me, the Jag just stunk of a 1990 hardware retrofitted for 1993. The CD rom, the shitty prototype VR headset. Junk. Failure before it even started and that was 1993, well within the 16 bit gen. I just hate the Jag. Failure on all possible levels of suckatude.

The 3d0...i dont know what to say about it. It was the 32 bit gens biggest loser, but 3d0, to me, was never a a major player as Sega has historically been. 3do failing...wasnt surprised. Saturn failing..hey, wow, i thought it would do well.

Gotta give 3do props for being a far neater gizmo than the jag was in 1993.

I have to disagree. I enjoyed my Jag. It had a few good games that previewed the 32-bit age nicely. AvP, Tempest 2000, Iron Soldier and the Jag's nice version of Doom were all great experiences that trumped any 16-bit game, and also anything on the 3DO. The 3DO didn't do it for me--it was just a Sega CD on steroids, all multimedia flash with no soul. And it also had the worst controller ever (not that the Jag's was any good). The layout was fine, but it was about as responsive as an IR TV remote.

 

[Sapiens]

Does anyone think that should MS fail to turn a profit this gen, they will exit? It's not all up to Jallard, Bill and co., right? Shareholders will start to get the ants in the pants.

How much CAN you bleed?? Personally, I think MS will do well this gen...but turn a profit? Hard to say. Those accessories sure are plentiful and expensive...

 

[Mr_Furious]

NGage was a monumental failure, imo. Might not've been from the "top 3" but the financial backing was still quite considerable.

 

[Sapiens]

I have to disagree. I enjoyed my Jag. It had a few good games that previewed the 32-bit age nicely. AvP, Tempest 2000, Iron Soldier and the Jag's nice version of Doom were all great experiences that trumped any 16-bit game, and also anything on the 3DO. The 3DO didn't do it for me--it was just a Sega CD on steroids, all multimedia flash with no soul. And it also had the worst controller ever (not that the Jag's was any good). The layout was fine, but it was about as responsive as an IR TV remote.

The quality software that proved it was a big 64 bit boy on the Jag was just too far and few...you know? I dont want to argue with a man with a Tempest avatar...so I will concede that its hard to really pick between the 3do and jag for sucking, but i feel 3d0 was a little ahead of jag. A shitty as Crystal Dynamic's Crash and Burn was...it was far more indicative of next gen than trevor mcfur was. And these were both launch games.

And then 3d0 also had a pretty cool looking for its time madden, fifa, need for speed, etc. These EA games were pretty nifty in the day. Especially somehting like Road Rash. If i had to go back in time and pick between 3do and Jag, itd be 3d0. Couldnt play SSF2T on Jag, right?

 

[GaimeGuy]

Does anyone think that should MS fail to turn a profit this gen, they will exit? It's not all up to Jallard, Bill and co., right? Shareholders will start to get the ants in the pants.

How much CAN you bleed?? Personally, I think MS will do well this gen...but turn a profit? Hard to say. Those accessories sure are plentiful and expensive...

Microsoft is worth 300 billion dollars.

Certainly they won't make 4 billion dollars in profit next gen. I don't think any system has done that, save for maybe the N64 (MAYBE).

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

Oh wow. I remember that there were some hardcore fucking Jaguar fans out there, too. They'd KILL you if you talked shit about their system.

 

[argon]

Does anyone think that should MS fail to turn a profit this gen, they will exit? It's not all up to Jallard, Bill and co., right? Shareholders will start to get the ants in the pants.

Actually, I'm starting to think it will be the other way around. Microsoft's over-willingness to turn a profit this gen will cause them to lose some marketshare. I doubt they will exit unless the XBox name is somehow ruined in the minds of gamers.

 

[Sapiens]

Oh wow. I remember that there were some hardcore fucking Jaguar fans out there, too. They'd KILL you if you talked shit about their system.

I know, i know. the Atari Lynx is a VERY sweet system though. I personally love it.

But the Jag...man...nothing compelling there save for the admittedly awesome tempest 2000.
IMO

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

I know, i know. the Atari Lynx is a VERY sweet system though. I personally love it.

But the Jag...man...nothing compelling there save for the admittedly awesome tempest 2000.
IMO

Haven't ever played one myself, but I do know that people would constantly rave about the 'Doom' port as well as Alien VS Predator.

 

[Duderz]

MS spending $375 million on Rare LOLAMIRITE

Actually, aside from Kameo, yes, yes I am.

 

[krypt0nian]

The N64 was 10 times the console the Xbox was.

Bitch please.

 

[Deku]

Before this gets out of control, N64 did okay relative to SNES's (and later PSX's) worldwide dominance (and wide variety of games). This gen people though MS had no chance, and relative to opinions on it before this gen, the Xbox did surprisingly well.

Subsidized by 4 billion dollars of microsoft money. That's not a success. It's a forced entry into what may end up being an unprofitable market when Sony decides to play the same game and take a massive hit on their hardware to basically subsidize its existance.

The rule of cut throat competition is that the other guy can cut your throat too, and Sony now seems intent of losing 4 billion dollars of its own to keep MS out of its turf. This kind of game is played out everday in different markets and in in virtual markets on MMORPGs. It's an increadibly easy game to play and does not require any strategic brilliance on the part of the company playing it.

 

[Jonnyram]

There seems to be some big misunderstanding about what the Revolution is. It's not just a "remote control"... Nintendo has repeatedly said the console will come with a classic controller option too. They don't want to alienate existing users, which is what most people here seem to be assuming. So before the "remote" and the new generation of Revolution games even starts, you have a console that can play every game released for a Nintendo console, with a regular controller to boot. How is that a bad thing?

 

[Gantz]

PS2 Online gaming was a joke this gen.

 

[Soul4ger]

 

[Zaphod]

The N64 was 10 times the console the Xbox was.

Bitch please.

Holy cow! That was some good comedy.

 

[Tarazet]

The Jag wasn't a 16-bit latecomer, it was the Dreamcast of the 32-bit era. And you didn't mention the 3DO, which was slightly less of a failure than the Jag.

On the other hand, it's difficult to say which is worse: the Jaguar or the Sega 32X. Both of them were colossal wastes with no software, but at least there were a lot of titles available for the Jag. The 32X didn't even give you bad options.

 

[puck1337]

There seems to be some big misunderstanding about what the Revolution is. It's not just a "remote control"... Nintendo has repeatedly said the console will come with a classic controller option too. They don't want to alienate existing users, which is what most people here seem to be assuming. So before the "remote" and the new generation of Revolution games even starts, you have a console that can play every game released for a Nintendo console, with a regular controller to boot. How is that a bad thing?

People believe what they want to believe.