Ahh, good catch. I forgot all about that. I suspect that an animation, albeit a big one, and a live action film can exist side by side by that point in the month.
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Wkd BO 0526-2817 - Rock in bay can't stop Pirates or Guardians, Alien sinks tho
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Ahh, good catch. I forgot all about that. I suspect that an animation, albeit a big one, and a live action film can exist side by side by that point in the month.
CaviarMeths
Member
Oh right I was going to revise my WW prediction.
Hype intensifies at home. Still not expecting great European numbers outside of UK.
OW: $120m
Dom: $280m
WW: $650m
Edit: did a quick regional breakdown in my head, think this has decent potential in Asia and Latin America, upped WW figure from $600m to $650m.
Hype intensifies at home. Still not expecting great European numbers outside of UK.
OW: $120m
Dom: $280m
WW: $650m
Edit: did a quick regional breakdown in my head, think this has decent potential in Asia and Latin America, upped WW figure from $600m to $650m.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Like, how are you going to find out in numbers?
baby driver tho!it's so gonna bomb
When you make a movie with that title you know what you're getting yourself into.
Sibersk Esto
Banned
What about 'The Mummy'?
The Dark Universe is starting guys!
The Dark Universe is starting guys!
Pirates 5 is at $326M worldwide as of the end of Monday. China is at an estimated $110M through Tuesday.
Disney is already past $3B worldwide in 2017. Before their crazy 2016 (Which was around $7.5B), Disney's all time worldwide record for the entire year was $5.85B in 2015.
Disney has released all of 3 feature films in 2017 so far (plus a Panda documentary), and only has another 4 scheduled.
Cars 3 - 6/16/17
Thor: Ragnarok - 11/3/17
Coco - 11/22/17
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 12/15/17
I think that the calendar gross of those 7 (plus the tail end of Rogue One) will be enough to top their 2015 total.
Disney is already past $3B worldwide in 2017. Before their crazy 2016 (Which was around $7.5B), Disney's all time worldwide record for the entire year was $5.85B in 2015.
Disney has released all of 3 feature films in 2017 so far (plus a Panda documentary), and only has another 4 scheduled.
Cars 3 - 6/16/17
Thor: Ragnarok - 11/3/17
Coco - 11/22/17
Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 12/15/17
I think that the calendar gross of those 7 (plus the tail end of Rogue One) will be enough to top their 2015 total.
I don't know if having the name "Baby" was supposed to be cute, but it's actually kinda terrible
Saucycarpdog
Member
So what are we expecting from Transformers The last Knight? Coming right after Cars 3, plus franchise fatigue, I think it's going to suffer a huge domestic drop compared to Extinction.
Overseas is gonna be big like always but idk about some markets. Is there a China pandering part in this one?
Overseas is gonna be big like always but idk about some markets. Is there a China pandering part in this one?
Obliterator
Member
I'm seeing like almost no hype at all domestic at least. Doesn't feel like it has any momentum. Global will still be huge but maybe I'm just missing something? Anyone else seeing strong domestic demand?
I think it'll perform similar to Pirates domestically. Better in the rest of the world, but 'only' ~100m better. I could be way off-base but I really can't see it hitting a billion again due to sinking popularity and weak money.
A lot of films gave up the opening weekend record in favour of mid-week releases. The Phantom Menace and Revenge of the Sith would have easily set the record as well.
Jawmuncher
Member
What happened to mid-week releases anyway? Remember that was a big thing for awhile and now it seems they compromised with the earlier thursday showings. Unless i'm missing something.
Ya, the 3.5 day opening weekend is sort of a compromise. mid-week openings are still standard for Thanksgiving and X-Mas weekends though.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Cross-posting from the review thread:
Definitely feel rather conflicted this weekend. My heart is telling me this can explode thanks to the reviews, but I'm not seeing evidence of that on Fandango or MT presales yet.
LA Times also reports the budget is indeed $150M.
Definitely feel rather conflicted this weekend. My heart is telling me this can explode thanks to the reviews, but I'm not seeing evidence of that on Fandango or MT presales yet.
Reviews have only been up for 13 hours. I think we need to wait a day or two more to call it.
i was bummed when i used t mobile tuesdays to book my ticket this am
got a stellar seat in an empty theatre for the 7pm show on Sunday... usually packed this close to an MCU movie
BronsonLee
Member
The T-Mobile ticket things don't really make a huge dent tbh and they count the full ticket price
NealMcCauley
Member
Curious to see how many theaters Covenant loses this weekend and next.
Kenzodielocke
Banned
Is WB lowballing intentionally? Is that a real practise in Hollywood?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
It's a fair point. But it just doesn't feel like a true event as of now. Here's hoping things change.
That said, I wouldn't be that surprised if the film has a fairly disappointing OW, but then legs it to a great total. In the same vein as Batman Begins, but more like a 75/250 total than 50/200 total.
I cannot think of a single time that a studio has put out equivalent expectations to tracking services the week of release. It's almost always 10-20% lower.
AdventureRacing
Member
Only just saw the Australian box office numbers but pirates had a pretty damn poor opening week. For comparison it actually made less in its first week than 4 made in its second week. It's going to see a monstrous decline here.
For reference the BO of the pirates movies have looked like this in Australia:
18 million
28 million
29 million
29 million
This one looks like it'll struggle for 12-13 million. Could end up being less depending on how fast it loses screens to WW and Baywatch. It's per screen earnings are pretty terrible for a major release.
For reference the BO of the pirates movies have looked like this in Australia:
18 million
28 million
29 million
29 million
This one looks like it'll struggle for 12-13 million. Could end up being less depending on how fast it loses screens to WW and Baywatch. It's per screen earnings are pretty terrible for a major release.
Obliterator
Member
A 65 million opening would be really disappointing I'd have to think, even if WB themselves have put that out there as a lower end estimate.
It would be in the lower range for opening in comic films recently. That would put it in X-Men Apocalypse / Ant-Man territory. I can't think it goes that low.
It would be in the lower range for opening in comic films recently. That would put it in X-Men Apocalypse / Ant-Man territory. I can't think it goes that low.
I found this gem while trying to find what Disney had Age of Ultron pegged for on opening weekend
http://movieweb.com/avengers-2-age-ultron-failure-disney-marvel/
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Pirates 5 was a bit underestimated, it seems: https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/869571980579794944
I was thinking about this yesterday: while Pirates 5 is certainly a disappointing performer in the US, if the trends of the last two summers hold, it could still conceivably be in the 5th highest grossing film of the summer if it grosses $165-175M.
I was thinking about this yesterday: while Pirates 5 is certainly a disappointing performer in the US, if the trends of the last two summers hold, it could still conceivably be in the 5th highest grossing film of the summer if it grosses $165-175M.
MHWilliams
Member
Honestly, it's pretty hard to tell. Since you can't really pinpoint what caused a film to change its fortunes.
Take Pirates for example. Dead Man's Chest did a ton of money, despite being worse than the first film. Why? Audiences were primed off of the success of the first. Whereas At World's End went down, in opening weekend, domestic, and international takes. I find it's easier to speculate on this over domestic revenue, because the international market changed pretty quick over the last decade.
In terms of films that feel different enough to stand out from their respective franchises, Deadpool is a pretty strong case. The rest of the franchise could go either way. I think First Class was much lower than The Last Stand because that preceding film had destroyed the faith in the franchise, whereas after Days of Future Past rebounded. On the other hand, Apocalypse seemingly accelerated the burn of any goodwill they had built up.
I guess it is possible. GOTG2 already has a top 5 spot (maybe #1). Despicable Me 3 is pretty much a lock as well. Spider-Man Homecoming coming in under $175M would be very shocking. Ditto for Wonder Woman at this point.
That's four.
Cars 3, Transformers 5, War for the Planet of the Apes, and Dunkirk are probably the main competition for the fifth spot, assuming no breakouts.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'm just trying to save face with my top 5 domestic prediction in that one thread. 
If the rumored runtime of 182 minutes for TF5 is true, I'm going to give it no chance of grossing more than Pirates.
If the rumored runtime of 182 minutes for TF5 is true, I'm going to give it no chance of grossing more than Pirates.
I'm just trying to save face with my top 5 domestic prediction in that one thread.
If the rumored runtime of 182 minutes for TF5 is true, I'm going to give it no chance of grossing more than Pirates.
WTF at that runtime.
NealMcCauley
Member
Notice a trend?
Transformers - 143 mins
Revenge of the Fallen - 144 mins
Dark of the Moon - 154 mins
Age of Extinction - 165 mins
165? geez
BronsonLee
Member
The saga of Optimus Prime and Sir Anthony Hopkins in Space must be given the proper amount of time
NealMcCauley
Member
If true, TF5 will be 1-2 minutes shorter.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
It would be 1 minute shorter than Pearl Harbor.
I should reiterate that this is a rumor. But as the list Kswiss posted shows, it'd fit with the way the franchise has gone so far.
MHWilliams
Member
I remember watching Pearl Harbor in theatres. "What? The movie isn't over? Huh?"
Obliterator
Member
Is Peter Jackson directing this one?
Cross-posting here where more people are likely to care, but B-G-E's LA Times article puts Wonder Woman's budget at $150M. That lays the $100M talk to rest.
Plus it gives them more time to demo sponsor products in the film. Can't wait for Amazon Echo or Taco Bell Naked Chicken Chips to be a plot point!
Plus it gives them more time to demo sponsor products in the film. Can't wait for Amazon Echo or Taco Bell Naked Chicken Chips to be a plot point!
Nah...Peter Jackson would have make it much better....oh wait...hobbit prequels.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
I need this to be true. I need all the giant robot balls, insane product placements and prestigious actors getting peed on that I can get.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Guardians 2, predictably, had a much better Monday than was estimated. It ended up down only 18% with $6.28M, pushing the domestic total to $340.50M
Yeah, still not seeing where the monster opening is coming from. I want my local theaters to start filling up because I need them to add extra shows. None of their current times are convenient for me. Everyone around me now reserved seating and every showtime I've looked at for Thursday/Friday/Saturday is wide open. Where are all the Wonder Woman fans?
TetraxShards
Member
I'm just trying to save face with my top 5 domestic prediction in that one thread.
If the rumored runtime of 182 minutes for TF5 is true, I'm going to give it no chance of grossing more than Pirates.
Oh, oh no....
Obliterator
Member
I feel like I keep saying it week in and week out but Guardians has been having some great legs.
Age of Extinction felt like the longest movie I've ever seen. 182 minutes, god damn...
Return of the King was 200 minutes. It just depends on what you do with those 200 minutes I guess.
That said, the 251 minute extended cut of RotK is torture on repeated viewings.
My family used to try and marathon the extended trilogy during holidays, and we'd start drifting out half way through TTT.
That said, the 251 minute extended cut of RotK is torture on repeated viewings.
My family used to try and marathon the extended trilogy during holidays, and we'd start drifting out half way through TTT.
Mix Master
Member
ROBOT BALLS