Announcing sequels too fast bites studios in the ass more often than not. The Amazing Spider-Man sequels and spinoffs are the obvious example, but loads of other sequels that were announced before all of the receipts were in never materialized.
Wkd BO 0603-0516 - Turtles Before Apocalypse. Popstar Never Started.
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Announcing sequels too fast bites studios in the ass more often than not. The Amazing Spider-Man sequels and spinoffs are the obvious example, but loads of other sequels that were announced before all of the receipts were in never materialized.
But Deadpool wasn't dat Mahvel either.
Edit: I read early estimates here showing for Deadpool's first weekend (it opened last Wednesday here in Japan) is around $20 Million USD. It tied two other local films and should dethrone Zootopia from the top spot.
Wade also has a R15+ rating as well.
He coming for the Guardians and gonna be Fox's $800 million dollar man.
The Narrative of the past couple of weeks in these threads has focused on the terrible performance of many sequels to successful movies in 2016. I thought it would be worth examining the domestic performance of sequels to relatively large films over the past 3 years.
Below is a list of all sequels to films or franchises that previously had a domestic gross of $100M or more (plus Fury Road for fun). In total, I looked up about 50 films from 2014-2016.
For each film you will find a domestic gross (or estimated gross if the film is still playing), the domestic gross of its predecessor, and the +/- percent change between the grosses of the two films. For films still in release, I used the midpoint between my low and high gross estimates for the estimated percent change.
Some Notes:
1) Given how many sequels are released every year, I mainly stuck to sequels of $100M+ films or franchises that were at that level at one point. This unfortunately eliminated a lot of remakes to 1970s and 1980s films like Robocop and Poltergeist.
2) Recently, we have had a lot of 10-30 years later sequels, some of which largely ignored films in the same franchise that were released in between. I made some judgement calls on what previous film to use as a comparison. In instances where the predecessor film may be unclear, I included a title note.
3) Very late sequels (9+ years later) are denoted with a single asterix (*). Remakes are denoted with a double asterix (**)
4) The table format may be difficult to read on mobile phones depending on your browser. I tried to make it as small as possible, but YMMV.
I'll avoid making observations on trends in this post. Looking at the performance of specific genres is interesting though.
Below is a list of all sequels to films or franchises that previously had a domestic gross of $100M or more (plus Fury Road for fun). In total, I looked up about 50 films from 2014-2016.
For each film you will find a domestic gross (or estimated gross if the film is still playing), the domestic gross of its predecessor, and the +/- percent change between the grosses of the two films. For films still in release, I used the midpoint between my low and high gross estimates for the estimated percent change.
Some Notes:
1) Given how many sequels are released every year, I mainly stuck to sequels of $100M+ films or franchises that were at that level at one point. This unfortunately eliminated a lot of remakes to 1970s and 1980s films like Robocop and Poltergeist.
2) Recently, we have had a lot of 10-30 years later sequels, some of which largely ignored films in the same franchise that were released in between. I made some judgement calls on what previous film to use as a comparison. In instances where the predecessor film may be unclear, I included a title note.
3) Very late sequels (9+ years later) are denoted with a single asterix (*). Remakes are denoted with a double asterix (**)
4) The table format may be difficult to read on mobile phones depending on your browser. I tried to make it as small as possible, but YMMV.
Code:
2016 Domestic Gross (est finish) Predecessor Gross Change
Captain America: Civil War $388,940,157 (~$405M) $259,766,572 (Winter Soldier) +55% (est)
Batman v Superman $329,619,773 $291,045,518 (Man of Steel) +13%
Kung Fu Panda 3 $143,213,757 $165,249,063 -13%
X-Men: Apocalypse $116,498,232 ($145-155M) $233,921,534 (DOFP) -36% (est)
Ride Along 2 $90,862,685 $134,938,200 -33%
The Divergent Series: Allegiant $66,184,051 $130,179,072 (Insurgent) -49%
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2* $59,689,605 $241,438,208 -75%
Alice Through the Looking Glass $50,772,597 ($70-75M) $334,191,110 -78% (est)
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising $48,560,225 ($55-60M) $150,157,400 -61% (est)
The Huntsman: Winter's War $47,706,960 $155,332,381 (Snow White) -69%
TMNT: Out of the Shadows $35,250,000 ($80-95M) $191,204,754 -54% (est)
2015 Domestic Gross Predecessor Gross Change
Star Wars: The Force Awakens* $936,662,225 $380,270,577 (Revenge of the Sith) +146%
Jurassic World* $652,270,625 $181,171,875 (Jurassic Park 3) +260%
Avengers: Age of Ultron $459,005,868 $623,357,910 -24%
Furious 7 $353,007,020 $238,679,850 +48%
Minions $336,045,770 $368,061,265 (Despicable Me 2) -9%
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Pt2 $281,723,902 $337,135,885 (Mockingjay Pt1) -16%
Spectre $200,074,609 $304,360,277 (Skyfall) -34%
Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation $195,042,377 $209,397,903 (Ghost Protocol) -7%
Hotel Transylvania 2 $169,700,110 $148,313,048 +15%
Mad Max: Fury Road* $153,636,354 $36,230,219 (Beyond Thunderdome) +328%
The Divergent Series: Insurgent $130,179,072 $150,947,895 (Divergent) -14%
Creed* $109,767,581 $70,270,943 (Rocky Balboa) +56%
Terminator: Genisys $89,760,956 $125,322,469 (Salvation) -28%
Taken 3 $89,256,424 $139,854,287 -36%
Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Road Chip $85,886,987 $133,110,742 (Chipwrecked) -35%
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials $81,697,192 $102,427,862 -20%
Ted 2 $81,476,385 $218,815,487 -63%
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 $71,038,190 $146,336,178 -51%
Magic Mike XXL $66,013,057 $113,721,571 -42%
Fantastic Four** $56,117,548 $131,921,738 (Silver Surfer) -58%
2014 Domestic Gross Predecessor Gross Change
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Pt1 $337,135,885 $424,668,047 (Catching Fire) -21%
Captain America: The Winter Soldier $259,766,572 $176,654,505 (First Avenger) +47%
The Hobbit: TBotFA $255,119,788 $258,366,855 (Desolation) -1%
Transformers: Age of Extinction $245,439,076 $352,390,543 (Dark of the Moon) -30%
X-Men: Days of Future Past $233,921,534 $146,408,305 (First Class) +60%
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $208,545,589 $176,760,185 (Rise of...) +18%
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $202,853,933 $262,030,663 -23%
Godzilla (2014)** $202,853,933 $136,314,294 (1998 version) +47%
22 Jump Street $191,719,337 $138,447,667 +39%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles** $191,204,754 $42,273,609 (TMNT3) +355%
How to Train Your Dragon 2 $177,002,924 $217,581,231 -19%
Rio 2 $131,538,435 $143,619,809 -10%
Night at the Museum 3 $113,746,621 $177,243,721 -36%
300: Rise of An Empire* $106,580,051 $210,614,939 -49%
Dumb and Dumber To* $86,208,010 $127,175,374 -32%
Horrible Bosses 2 $54,445,357 $117,538,559 -54%
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit** $50,577,412 $118,907,036 (Sum of all Fears) -57%
The Expendables 3 $39,322,544 $85,028,192 -54%
* denotes sequel released at least 9 years after the previous film
** denotes a remake, relaunch, or reimagining of a property previously adapted to filmI'll avoid making observations on trends in this post. Looking at the performance of specific genres is interesting though.
Jungle Book deserves to be in the 1B clud, movie was fantastic
(loved Civil War also, not trying to say it's an either or thing)
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't know about counting Creed as a sequel to Rocky 4, but counting TFA as a sequel to Revenge of the Sith. I feel like either TFA should be a sequel to Jedi, or Creed should be a sequel to Balboa.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
The most surprising thing about the list was how close the two Hobbit sequels were. The feeling I got was one of obligation instead of anticipation. "*sigh* I've came this far, guess I should see how this thing ends..."
Discotheque
Banned
They were pretty stupid and long but I've honestly had more fun watching those than a number of marvel movies and man of Steel/BvS in theaters
Very loyal fanbase too. Jackson held them hostage to complete watching the trilogy lol. Dear God the regression though. King Kong is a masterpiece compared to this trilogy. Dude needs to chill for a bit and figure some things out.
As I said, Creed's the only one where the result changes. If you want to compare TFA to ROTJ, just change the percent increase to +202%
You could probably make the same case about Genisys. If you want to compare it to Terminator 3 instead, the change was -40%.
In both cases, TFA is way up and Genisys it quite a bit down.
EDIT:
Overall, 14 sequels improved their gross. 35 sequels saw drops.
ViewtifulJC
Banned
I didnt see the last one. The buck stops here, b. I know the trouble behind the production made it very rushed, but man its like the dude who made Heavenly Creatures or Dead Alive is just dead and buried, b
Discotheque
Banned
Yeah. LOTR was like his spiderman 2 and the Hobbit was his Oz the magical and powerful or whatever that shit was called breh.
Dude needs to go back to low budget horror for a minute. Or a real life drama.
Looks like most people think Balboa should be the comparison for Creed. Fixed.
I'm not going to mix animation with live action, as the audiences are very different.
I'm not going to mix animation with live action, as the audiences are very different.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
And apologies for not leading with a thank you for putting in that work. It's bullshit that you bust that out and my first comment is just to nitpick it.
Thanks for putting that together, K-Swiss. Very much appreciated.
Thanks for putting that together, K-Swiss. Very much appreciated.
AdventureRacing
Member
It won't even come with in 200 million WW and probably a similar sort of range domestically.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Hell na
Discotheque
Banned
Lol prolly like 1% chance if even that. Xmens always been middling domestically and Deadpool just blew the doors off. Even worldwide I have a hard time seeing it do Deadpool numbers. I think it's at 400 now tho
I'll toss my chips onto Warcraft being a flop of biblical proportions. Might not even clear $20 mil opening weekend. The license is seen as current about the same way D&D was seen as current when the late 90's movie came out.
TMNT probably won't have big legs after that tepid debut, but I think it'll have a surprisingly strong 2nd week, as audience reviews have been pretty decent and people will be scrunching their noses at Warcraft.
Dory will, of course, eat everyone's lunch the following week.
TMNT probably won't have big legs after that tepid debut, but I think it'll have a surprisingly strong 2nd week, as audience reviews have been pretty decent and people will be scrunching their noses at Warcraft.
Dory will, of course, eat everyone's lunch the following week.
No Problem.
I think the fail to hit ratio for comedy sequels is interesting. Going into those expecting to repeat the performance of the first film generally seems like a bad idea.
In Asia. That's about it.
TMNT won't have a suprisingly strong second weekend. The first film dropped 56% in week 2, and the sequel has more new competition (All three major openers are likely to be over Let's be Cops).
Discotheque
Banned
Yeah I wanna watch that soon. It looks like spinal tap for the Bieber/twitter/Instagram gen
Johns writes for TV when he's got spare time, but he'll be too busy for that in the foreseeable future. He's not writing comics for a while past Rebirth. He's full time on saving the movies, obviously where he's needed the most.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I also loved it. Randomly saw a 9:30 showing of it when my wife and I were bored, and it was great.
Eh. I'll stick by it. I think 2 still has a lot of interested parties whose interest just wasn't quite opening weekend urgent.
Also, a little movie called Guardians of the Galaxy came out the week before the first TMNT. Huge legs and word of mouth for that movie prooooobably slayed TMNT's subsequent weeks more than Let's Be Cops. In the kids/teens category, there ain't anything in the last few weeks or the next that threatens to dominate the binary "which has more buzz, this newish movie or that newish movie?" question like GOTG ended up doing vs. TMNT1.
MHWilliams
Member
Outside of the Disney stuff, it looks like the sequels are only hitting hard when that franchise has been dormant for a while.
Nah I got enough SNL big screen crap in the 90s
This is Apatow, did you get enough Apatow crap in the 00s or can you handle more?
Thanks for the info but I see the percent change in Creed is wrong
The percent change is right, but I changed the wrong gross when I tried to change Rocky 4 to Rocky Balboa. Should be right now.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Friday we have Now You See Me 2 coming out, and early tracking suggests a $27-29M debut, we'll see if that holds weight.
But really, an awful year for Paramount looking at what came and what is coming in 2016
But really, an awful year for Paramount looking at what came and what is coming in 2016
So hollywood thinks they can turn anything into a franchise huh? Who was asking for now you see me 2?
As a handicapped guy myself, I'm really not happy Me Before You is doing well. The ending was borderline offensive.
Some of my handicapped friends (because we all know each other) actually were hurt and offended by the film, although I personally get what the film was going for.
Not that anyone cares.
Some of my handicapped friends (because we all know each other) actually were hurt and offended by the film, although I personally get what the film was going for.
Not that anyone cares.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I am curious if you read the book. The author was also the screenwriter.
No, I didn't. I wasn't even aware of it or the movie until I saw some friends start bitching and linking articles about it, so I went and read up on the storyline and the ending of the movie and was a bit stunned by how it ended.
User 479360
Banned
Wow. Popstar did a lot worse than I'd expected.
Scarecrow
Member
Care to spoil the ending?
Now You See Me grossed 125% of it's budget domestically and 400% of it's budget WW. Why on earth would they not make a sequel?
JigglesBunny
Banned
Popstar flopped so hard.
I feel bad for TLI, you can tell they really poured their all into it.
I feel bad for TLI, you can tell they really poured their all into it.
that doesn't mean people want or will go see a sequel
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Like really? How much you get paid to say this shit Rob?
http://variety.com/2016/film/box-of...inja-turtles-2-box-office-sequels-1201788984/
AdventureRacing
Member
I'm not a fan of the ending but I also thought Sam claflins portrayal of a quadriplegic man was quite poor. Both his physical attributes to the way he moved his head and neck it was way to obvious that it was just a healthy man sitting in a chair. Even the chair he was in didn't really seem appropriate to his condition.
Even my GF who is a sucker for anything romantic didn't enjoy the movie very much.
The movie's been garnering incredibly negative criticism from people with disabilities and their representative organisations here in the UK.
Having seen Warcraft last saturday and the general reaction to it, It wouldn't surprise me t'll have good word of mouth and continue to do well. It has some pacing issues but it was a much better film then X-men apocalypse (imo) and the last two hobbit movies. (of course my my opinion)
I'm curious if the China market alone would making a sequel to Warcraft (I hope) worthwhile.
I'm curious if the China market alone would making a sequel to Warcraft (I hope) worthwhile.
BronsonLee
Member
The worst thing that Game of Thrones ever did is let their flop actors into movies
Pompeii
That wheelchair movie
Terminatyr
STOP em
Pompeii
That wheelchair movie
Terminatyr
STOP em
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