Wkd BO 06•29-07•01•12 - Seth MacFarlane successfully cracks box office... be afraid

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Ted will probably break $100M on Sat. It should be around $86M after today. 50% drops give it another $19M on Fri + Sat. I can't see it dropping much worse that that. In fact, I think a 40% drop is possible. It has held well during the week. Ted is the only adult comedy out right now, and one of the few adult films.
 
Phoenician_Viking said:
Is independence day holiday big day for movies? I would guess people would barbecue and shoot fire works than watch movies on the 4th.
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I think it used to provide a modest bump over Tuesday. Now that we have discount Tuesdays in a lot of places it seems like this year the Wednesday 15-20% drop just disappeared with no real bump over July 3rd. I do think grosses for this entire week are being boosted though. Similar to the week between Xmas and New Years, a lot of people have some/most of this week off work. Week-to-Week drops are going to be harsher than normal for holdovers next week.

EDIT: Actually, it looks like some movies got a pretty good bump over Tuesday. Moonrise Kingdom and People like Us are way up. Brave and Madea are up as well. These movies should have dropped 15-20% as I said.
 
kswiston said:
I think it used to provide a modest bump over Tuesday. Now that we have discount Tuesdays in a lot of places it seems like this year the Wednesday 15-20% drop just disappeared with no real bump over July 3rd. I do think grosses for this entire week are being boosted though. Similar to the week between Xmas and New Years, a lot of people have some/most of this week off work. Week-to-Week drops are going to be harsher than normal for holdovers next week.

EDIT: Actually, it looks like some movies got a pretty good bump over Tuesday. Moonrise Kingdom and People like Us are way up. Brave and Madea are up as well. These movies should have dropped 15-20% as I said.
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So i can take from your words that TAS is not too hot with Americans. Right?
 
Phoenician_Viking said:
I see, but the weekend should push it above the ¤150 million i think. It already 58 million domestically.

TAS has already made $108.5 million WW
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Foreign numbers haven't been updated since Sunday.

ASM will be somewhere around $75M after today domestically. I don't know whether $75M for the weekend proper is a realistic number or not. Transformers 1 made less than that in its first weekend after making more money on Wednesday (also a fourth of July).

This will be the lowest Grossing Spider-man in the franchise, but I always assumed it would be. To start, it is a reboot of a series that is only 10 years old. Secondly, the last movie was poorly received.

EDIT: The $130M linked by Ollin is probably a safer bet. $120M is Sony lowballing things. That would be a horrible return.
 
ollin said:
Sony projects ASM's 6-Day domestic box total to be $120-$130 million. $250 domestic box office for ASM would be a safe bet. $300 ASM would need great word of mouth plus Dark Knight Rises comes out in 2 weeks which will take a chunck out of their business.
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I think it might do more than $130 million. It already did $58 million in 2 days. The weekend should do more than week days and there´s still Thursday´s BO.
kswiston said:
Foreign numbers haven't been updated since Sunday.
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I know, i just wanted to update with the numbers available.
ASM will be somewhere around $75M after today domestically. I don't know whether $75M for the weekend proper is a realistic number or not. Transformers 1 made less than that in its first weekend after making more money on Wednesday (also a fourth of July).

This will be the lowest Grossing Spider-man in the franchise, but I always assumed it would be. To start, it is a reboot of a series that is only 10 years old. Secondly, the last movie was poorly received.

EDIT: The $130M linked by Ollin is probably a safer bet. $120M is Sony lowballing things. That would be a horrible return.
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You don´t think that TAS will do $150 million by the end of the week?
 
Phoenician_Viking said:
I think it might do more than $130 million. It already did $58 million in 2 days. The weekend should do more than week days and there´s still Thursday´s BO.

I know, i just wanted to update with the numbers available.

You don´t think that TAS will do $150 million by the end of the week?
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By Sunday? Doesn't seem that likely given the drop it had yesterday, but it might have been a relatively bad day at the movies in general.
 
Glad to see McFarlane at the top just cause it seems to piss most of GAF off.

And I'll never understand how budgets are estimated. I mean how come an animated movie costs freaking 150 million and a movie with Tatum and Mcconawhatever, who I both consider somewhat big hollywood stars, only 7?
 
Jay Sosa said:
Glad to see McFarlane at the top just cause it seems to piss most of GAF off.

And I'll never understand how budgets are estimated. I mean how come an animated movie costs freaking 150 million and a movie with Tatum and Mcconawhatever, who I both consider somewhat big hollywood stars, only 7?
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A lot of stars (or in the case of Magic Mike, "stars") will take a paycut to work with certain directors, cameo, or work in an ensemble cast. In a movie with zero sfx shots and no stuntwork, there's no reason for a budget beyond $10-$20 million.
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
A lot of stars (or in the case of Magic Mike, "stars") will take a paycut to work with certain directors, cameo, or work in an ensemble cast. In a movie with zero sfx shots and no stuntwork, there's no reason for a budget beyond $10-$20 million.
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then how in the world can a Tyler Perry movie with Eugene freaking Leavy be estimated at 20M$? To me it seems they're just random meaningless number.
 
Jay Sosa said:
then how in the world can a Tyler Perry movie with Eugene freaking Leavy be estimated at 20M$? To me it seems they're just random meaningless number.
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Something like Brave is essentially a 90 minute effects shot. It takes a ton of animators, artists, programmer, etc years to make one of those films, and you have to pay them all.

Something like Magic Mike can be shot in a few weeks, and there is not much post production that needs to be done besides the usual stuff (editing, sound, etc).

Tyler Perry films cost $20M because Tyler Perry wants money. His films used to be $5M.
 
Tobor said:
I'm not paying to see it in the theater. Looks like a decent rental, though.
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For what it's worth, I thought it was a pretty damn bad film--but I also feel the same about most of those Marvel Studios shitpieces you hold dear, so you may not want to take my word for it.
 
kswiston said:
Actually, a little under $120M and closer to $300M. The movie will end somwhere between $125-130 domestic and somewhere between $300-325M worldwide.


Amazing Spider-man will likely be the lowest grossing movie in the franchise domestically (Spider-man 2 opened to $41M on a Wednesday 8 years ago), but it should do well enough to position the sequel for big money. Assuming people are liking this film for the most part.

Looking good for around $150M over 6 days.
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Nice, thank you both.
 
Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D has a slightly better Tomatometer than Amazing Spider-Man (76% to 72%). Just pointing that out.
 
Transformers only increased 18% on Friday after a similar Tuesday release in a year where July 4th was on a Wednesday.

They must be expecting better from ASM because if it follows Transformer's weekend gains and drops it would be at $132M by the end of Sunday.
 
zomgbbqftw said:
Yes, it needs a decent Friday increase.
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kswiston said:
Transformers only increased 18% on Friday after a similar Tuesday release in a year where July 4th was on a Wednesday.

They must be expecting better from ASM because if it follows Transformer's weekend gains and drops it would be at $132M by the end of Sunday.
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It all depends on words of mouth. Is there any good word of mouth out there for TAS?
 
kswiston said:
Transformers only increased 18% on Friday after a similar Tuesday release in a year where July 4th was on a Wednesday.

They must be expecting better from ASM because if it follows Transformer's weekend gains and drops it would be at $132M by the end of Sunday.
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Wow really? I just popped in here to check out the estimates through Sunday. Wow, that's shockingly low. Even if that were a 3-day gross that would only make it #9 all time. Hell, Spider-man 3 (2D) did 151M in its first 3 days.

It will be interesting to read the post-mortem on deadline next week. It will be fun once insiders at Sony start pointing fingers at each other.
 
Dan said:
The Rocketeer was created as a comics series by Dave Stevens in 1982.
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Rocketeer comic book came after the movie. The movie was based off movie and radio serials of similar concept. The comic book was based off the movie and not the other way. The Wiki calling it his first adventure means it was the first published adventure in the comic form.
 
BattleMonkey said:
Rocketeer comic book came after the movie. The movie was based off movie and radio serials of similar concept. The comic book was based off the movie and not the other way. The Wiki calling it his first adventure means it was the first published adventure in the comic form.
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Rocketeer was a 1980s comic book.
 
BattleMonkey said:
Rocketeer comic book came after the movie. The movie was based off movie and radio serials of similar concept. The comic book was based off the movie and not the other way. The Wiki calling it his first adventure means it was the first published adventure in the comic form.
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Dude, I don't know how to say this, but you couldn't possibly be more wrong about what you're trying to say. The comic book predated the movie by nearly 10 years.
 
Tom_Cody said:
Wow really? I just popped in here to check out the estimates through Sunday. Wow, that's shockingly low. Even if that were a 3-day gross that would only make it #9 all time. Hell, Spider-man 3 (2D) did 151M in its first 3 days.

It will be interesting to read the post-mortem on deadline next week. It will be fun once insiders at Sony start pointing fingers at each other.
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Nah, TASM will do stellar RoW numbers and it sets up the sequel nicely. I have heard that SPE would be happy with anything over $750m WW as it makes it profitable in its own right with home video revenue yet to come.
 
kswiston said:
Something like Brave is essentially a 90 minute effects shot. It takes a ton of animators, artists, programmer, etc years to make one of those films, and you have to pay them all.

Something like Magic Mike can be shot in a few weeks, and there is not much post production that needs to be done besides the usual stuff (editing, sound, etc).

Tyler Perry films cost $20M because Tyler Perry wants money. His films used to be $5M.
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Yeah, take a look at the credits for a Pixar film and the credits for Magic Mike. Animated movies like Brave take a lot, a LOT of people to make. Not to mention that at least in Pixar's case, they are also constantly inventing new technology with each movie.
 
Jarmel said:
So is Brave a bomb then? I'm somewhat curious.
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Its over 150 million dollars domestic. There is no definition of bomb that could apply to it.


Anyway, how much money do you guys think the 3D version of finding nemo will bring in? I dont know what its opening against, but i feel like it could end up being gigantic. Like double lion king 3d, big.
 
zomgbbqftw said:
Nah, TASM will do stellar RoW numbers and it sets up the sequel nicely. I have heard that SPE would be happy with anything over $750m WW as it makes it profitable in its own right with home video revenue yet to come.
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As you said, the final WW numbers are what actually matter. I had called MiB3's domestic opening disappointing and it has going on to do stellar international numbers, so who really knows.

Obviously those numbers aren't -bad-, but they are definitely below the potential of the franchise.

So far we've seen a Spiderman film open at 151M, a batman film open at 158M, and the Avengers at 207M. A 132M (or 140M or whatever) 6-day has to be considered a disappointment in the context of what it could have potentially made.
 
Jarmel said:
So is Brave a bomb then? I'm somewhat curious.
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Maybe below the potential of what it should have done based on its production/marketing costs and what Disney paid for Pixar, but certainly not a bomb.

We won't really know how it should be judged until the international numbers come in.
 
Tom_Cody said:
As you said, the final WW numbers are what actually matter. I had called MiB3's domestic opening disappointing and it has going on to do stellar international numbers, so who really knows.

Obviously those numbers aren't -bad-, but they are definitely below the potential of the franchise.

So far we've seen a Spiderman film open at 151M, a batman film open at 158M, and the Avengers at 207M. A 132M (or 140M or whatever) 6-day has to be considered a disappointment in the context of what it could have potentially made.
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It's a reboot--the real test will be TASM 2.
 
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