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[Jeff-DSA]

I don't think it's so huge.

I kind of think Sony is dictating when the next gen really starts. Will a dev want to release a game on the 360 to a maximum installed base of a couple million when they could release it on the PS2 with an installed base of tens of millions? As long as the PS2 market is healthy, the next-gen will be somewhat hampered. MS 1st and 2nd parties are probably going to have to carry a heavy load for a while.

I'm pretty sure this is why Nintendo is in no hurry to beat Sony to the market by such a large margin (tell 'em large margin sent ya). Right now the PS2 reigns supreme and beating them out of the gate is almost like a false start in my opinion. I'm sure there will be TONS of early adopters with the Xbox 360, but I think the developers will wait to make the move to next-gen until they A) have to because all the console makers are there or B) can make as much money developing for a more expensive platform as they do with the current generation.

I might be way off, but time will tell I guess...

 

[mj1108]

It helped the Dreamcast!

Er...wait....

 

[Doube D]

First, we will have to find out just how much of a head start it will be. So called experts on GAF can tell you EXACTLY when the competition will launch but id wait for the official press info. Additionally, its significance is highly dependent on what it brings to the table.

Personally, I think the ps3 will trample it when all is said and done.

 

[Gahiggidy]

What is "heastart"?

Sorry, not from this place.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Based on the games MS have shown, it'll have a REALLY active headstart. It'll be more laden with hits than the PS2's and Dreamcast's headstart time.

If they're very active and well marketed, successful launch +1!

If MS keeps up stock and such a line of hits, they might see 10 million sold before the first PS3 is sold.

However, I'm not very convinced they'll steal #1 from Sony if Sony steals all of MS' thunder this E3. Ask this question next week.

 

[Guy LeDouche]

More than a choice, I think its Microsoft's only move. Launching next to Sony isn't probably such a good idea and we all know how launching late worked out for them, so launching before and hoping the head start gives you a better chance long term is the only move.

 

[McPhineas]

I think the biggest reason Microsoft felt it had to release new hardware so soon is the negative reputation the Xbox has in Japan. By releasing a new, better looking system with a more Japan-friendly library, they can save their brand's reputation in one of the most important markets in this business.

If the Xbox had been as moderately successful in Japan as it was elsewhere, I don't think MS would have felt the need to be this agressive. They would have instead focused on trying to gain ground each generation by launching after Sony but with better hardware, bolstering this strategy with additional studio acquisitions and by buying as many major exclusives as they possibly could.

 

[maximum360]

It was crucial. It was the only way for them to try and stay competitive (on the level that they want to) with Sony.

 

[GhaleonEB]

A very big deal indeed, especially if they sell 10 million units first.

 

[Rhindle]

Haven't we done this thread a few dozen times already?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Haven't we done this thread a few dozen times already?

Heck, there's three PD0 threads on the front page alone. Why not make a few different "OMG MS is launching first, coup or Dreamcast?!?!" threads? Surely there will be more.

 

[ManaByte]

It helped the Dreamcast!

Er...wait....

That is the most brain-dead stupid comparison anyone could make.

When the Dreamcast launched, Sega didn't exist on retail shelves. They had NO presence in stores. Retailers didn't have a "Sega" section anymore and Sega had a horrible reputation when it came to supporting consoles. The DC was not only launching a new hardware system, but also a new brand while at the same time attempting to repair Sega's bad reputation.

On the other hand, stores have an Xbox section. The Xbox has consumer mindshare. It may make you sick to admit it, but the system and brand name is popular. MS knows that the Xbox brand is a strong one, which is why with the next system they are keeping the Xbox name and evolving the X logo.

Attempting to compare it to the Dreamcast is stupid and completely uniformed.

 

[Jared Goodwin]

So this is gonna be a weekly thing?

(Mindshare and thought leader should be bannable phrases.)

 

[ProgramFighter]

Personally, I see the 360 as the Genesis++. The ++ being that the 360 already has a solid fanbase and mindshare to build upon that the Genesis didn't really have coming from the Master System. It's head start helped it against the SNES to build marketshare and mindshare. Before that the NES was as big, if not bigger, then what the PS2 was in marketshare (not talking about specific amount of units sold). I mean, I can see where the comparisons to Dreamcast are coming from, buy lets face it, Microsoft is a very big company that has a history of knowing how to get into and succeed in a market. That's not to say that the Xbox 360 will finish number 1 next-gen (even w/ my analogy, the SNES won), but let's not ride it off like it's gonna go down without a fight. Personally, I don't care since I'm gonna buy all 3 consoles regardles. Well, that's just my two sense. Sorry if someone already wrote something along these lines. I didn't get to read through the whole thread first.

 

[GhaleonEB]

So this is gonna be a weekly thing?

(Mindshare and thought leader should be bannable phrases.)

Please add "order of magnitude" to the list.

 

[ProgramFighter]

So this is gonna be a weekly thing?

(Mindshare and thought leader should be bannable phrases.)

lol. My bad on my post then. You're right. I guess it can get annoying.

 

[Gahiggidy]

So this is gonna be a weekly thing?

(Mindshare and thought leader should be bannable phrases.)

Hear, hear!

 

[Triumph]

No matter what happens, it will be the key for them this generation. If they succeed(far fetched)/chip away more at Sony's market share(more likely), it will be because of the early launch. If they fail dismally, it will be because of the early launch.

So the answer is: it's the lynchphin for MS no matter the result.

So this is gonna be a weekly thing?

(Mindshare and thought leader should be bannable phrases.)

Ok, but only if profits, nostalgia, gyroscopes, and holograms are added to the list.

 

[sc0la]

"OMG MS is launching first, coup or Dreamcast?!?!" .

That would actually make a great title :lol

 

[Spider_Jerusalem]

A sad but true scenario that will make 360's headstart sell more consoles than PS3:

1 - Xbox 360 launches
2 - Xbox 360 gets cracked by pirates
3 - PS3 launches

At least in my country (Italy), Xbox really exploded when piracy came out. And my opinion is that Microsoft is aware of this, so I'm expecting for it being pirated very early. I'm hoping to be wrong, anyway...

 

[AniHawk]

Even though launching early failed twice for Sega, it has helped them. It's not impossible to launch early and do pretty well, especially with good marketing and deep pockets.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Depends entirely on how MS handles X360's time to itself in the market.

 

[AniHawk]

I forgot to add that the Playstation hype machine is a very powerful thing indeed. The Dreamcast was taken from us far too early. And while I'm definitely not comparing the DC's situation to the 360's, as Sega had a bunch of big, big problems to face with the system themselves, the PS hype did knock things down a notch or two.

The fact that the Xbox franchise has a lot of consumers that bought it for having the best graphics might bite them in the ass when not only will the PS3 have better looking games, but most likely the best looking games.

On a side note, I was in my store Friday for about 10-15 minutes, and in that time, two people came in to ask about 360 reservations. They haven't seen the system, just heard about it. Gonna be an interesting next gen.

 

[monkeyrun]

since they'll hve the weakest console of the 3 next gen. the headstart is really important for them.

 

[Gahiggidy]

nm.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Well, its not like it won't have to compete for dollars along with the PS2/GCN/PiSP/DS/GBA/XBX/PC. That's alot of platforms and games that are going to be yelling "buy me!" during the 360's first year.

And if they launched later, then they'd have the PS3 as well. What's your point?

 

[Rorschach]

Depends on when Sony starts the hype machine and how well it's received by the populous. They garnered an insane amount of hype with the PS2. "Dreamcast? I'll just wait for the ps2" Might be the same next gen? Although, Xbox has become a household name now.

 

[Cold-Steel]

All the Xbox 360 has is its headstart.

They are second to Sony in the image game.
They are second to Sony in market share.
They don't have backwards compatibility.
They don't have the momemtum.
They are losing money on hardware.

A headstart can make a difference. Then again, the holiday season did nothing for the DS against the onslaught of the PSP.

Games, people. Games and functionality will seperate 360 from the rest.

How Microsoft differentiates 360 as NEXT GEN will determine how worthwhile their headstart is.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

They don't have backwards compatibility.
They don't have the momemtum.

We don't know for certain whether or not X360 will offer BC in some form.

It's momentum and they have it...more than Nintendo does, anyway.

 

[monkeyrun]

We don't know for certain that X360 won't offer BC in some form.

It's momentum and they have it...more than Nintendo does, anyway.

lol an they are the thought leader too :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Cold-Steel]

We don't know for certain whether or not X360 will offer BC in some form.

It's momentum and they have it...more than Nintendo does, anyway.

No BC, prepare to be let down.

lol an they are the thought leader too :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Heh, we should put that one up with the "the Xbox 360 is so powerful you don't need more power!". :lol

 

[MightyHedgehog]

No BC, prepare to be let down.

Nothing to be let down about for me. I don't care one way or the other as I find BC to be relatively worthless. I have an XBOX to play the old games, just like I have the other old systems to play their games. I'm more interested in buying new systems for new games. I'm sure some will be disappointed if it doesn't show up, if that makes you happy.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Head Start: Starting the race 2 hours before other contestants.

Bitch Slap: Losing a race even with a 2 hour head start.


Advantage or Handicap?

 

[Cold-Steel]

Nothing to be let down about for me. I don't care one way or the other as I find BC to be relatively worthless. I have an XBOX to play the old games, just like I have the other old systems to play their games. I'm more interested in buying new systems for new games. I'm sure some will be disappointed if it doesn't show up, if that makes you happy.

You think it makes me happy? I want to play Xbox games on the 360.

Who doesn't?!?!

 

[cyberheater]

Comparing 360 to DC is just plain wrong..

The major differences are:-

* 360 has EA support - that alone will ensure 10 millions sales in US
* 360 will launch with 40 + games.
* MS have very deep pockets and are committed to become no1.
* Best track record for best games in some genre - Halo (FPS), Forza & PGR (Driving).

Also,

Expect a big price drop when PS3 launches. I can imagine that PS3 will be 400 dollars and 360 at 200 dollars. And first gen PS3 games won't look as good a second gen 360 games.

It's gonna be a tough fight for Sony this time round. That's for sure.

 

[OniShiro]

And when the PS3 comes out, I'm sure MS will release Halo3 and probably Forza 2.

 

[monkeyrun]

And when the PS3 comes out, I'm sure MS will release Halo3 and probably Forza 2.

or maybe PDZ :lol

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Head Start: Starting the race 2 hours before other contestants.

Bitch Slap: Losing a race even with a 2 hour head start.


Advantage or Handicap?

One year could prove to be an enormous benefit for a variety of reasons. You could build out a solid foundation of software in that time, raising your platform's profile and building its hot factor because of the number and quality of games you have that no one else does when they hit the scene. There's the very real benefit of having more mature development tools and getting to your second generation of software faster than the other guy, providing your platform with superior-looking titles while your competitors are still figuring it out. A new or pre-existing franchise could be successfully released during that time, with an eagerly-awaited follow up announced for your platform just in time to give your competitors more to work against right when as they are trying to gain traction in the market. A year's worth of very smartly-designed and very visible marketing could sway public perception about your platform and make the 'latecomers' work much harder to breach that wall of hype you've generated. There are plenty of reasons that coming into the market first could have very real and very beneficial effects for your platform.

There are also some negatives that could affect your platform as the result of being the first next-gen entrant. You could seem like old news and no longer have the 'hotness' factor when the other platforms release, affecting your sales once the new guys show up. There's also the very real possibility of ending up being noticeably weaker than your competition in the hardware department because of the difference in time between hardware design tapeouts. These negatives could have a very damaging effect on the rest of the generation for your platform.

In the end, there are more potential positives than negatives when you're talking about as small of a gap of time between the competing platforms, such as it will be in the coming gen. Having a ton of money to burn and a very serious drive to push your competitors to the wall right off of the blocks helps. If done right, and we really won't have a full understanding of that for some time into the generation, I'd say it is more of an advantage than a handicap to release six months to a year earlier than your competitors do.

 

[AstroLad]

Nothing to be let down about for me. I don't care one way or the other as I find BC to be relatively worthless. I have an XBOX to play the old games, just like I have the other old systems to play their games. I'm more interested in buying new systems for new games. I'm sure some will be disappointed if it doesn't show up, if that makes you happy.

Though I'm sure this argument's gone on for years, I'm the same way, BC is basically irrelevant to me, and I've never made use of it on either PS2 or GBA, though I'm not opposed to it. :lol

 

[Rorschach]

You think it makes me happy? I want to play Xbox games on the 360.

Who doesn't?!?!

If not being backwards compatible makes it less expensive, then I sure as hell don't. I have an Xbox already. From the rumors circulating, it seems like it does play xbox games, though. We'll find out e3 :\

 

[PS2 KID]

I also agree with people who think that any comparison between XBOX 360 and Dreamcast is just plain wrong. Dreamcast actually had very good timing. It was just killed off by the effect of hype for the PS2. It's not like it didn't have good software.

However, the landscape has changed. XBOX 360 is not going up against a PS2 type scenario. I think people are shortchanging the fact that Nintendo will most likely launch in 2006 as well. So XBOX 360 has two competitors and not one. It may have two strong competitors. This is dependant on the strength of Revolution 3rd party support.

Say in the case where all 3 consoles have some type of online infrastructure, almost equal 3rd party support and strong 1st party games, what would be the tiebreaker? Console Power, next gen DVD playback, console+handheld connectivity, Mp3 player connectivity, media playback, backward compatibility, etc. So yes, something like a one year headstart would be crucial.

 

[seismologist]

depends on how good of a showing PS3 has.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

PS2 KID has a good point. While X360 will have some exclusive time to itself, PS3 and Revolution will have to divide their efforts on battling each other, as well as the first guy. MS, by that time, will have found a groove to work with and will be up on both with a number of systems sold before the shit really hits the fan. Personally, though...unless Ninty really brings it with Rev., I think it's still really just down to Sony and MS.

 

[OniShiro]

what would be the tiebreaker?

sad, but probably piracy.

 

[bob]

I wonder if microsoft realizes that about half the people that buy a xbox 360 in it 's first year ,well also, endup buying a ps3,which well endup cutting its headstart into about half it's official numbers.

 

[demi]

sad, but probably piracy.

CAN I MOD IT!?

 

[Rorschach]

CAN I MOD IT!?

 

[AstroLad]

I wonder if microsoft realizes that about half the people that buy a xbox 360 in it 's first year ,well also, endup buying a ps3,which well endup cutting its headstart into about half it's official numbers.

I may be giving Microsoft too much credit here, but I'm pretty sure that they've at least considered the possibility that there may be some people out there who own both 360s and PS3s.

 

[JMPovoa]

The headstart is the only thing Microsoft can do to ensure at least early success. Launching at the same time or later than PS3 would be suicidal.
And they do have the hardware and software behind them to back it up, so it's a key for them in that sense.

 

[Ranger X]

Well they better push it hard while they are alone because their duty is HUGE: they have to snatch 20 000 000 Sony users AT THE VERY LEAST to get the lead.
Another challenge for them: Most of the people that will buy the 360 right away in the first 6 month are the gamers that are the most likely to also buy the PS3 at around launch. Casual people don't buy many new consoles in the first 6 months...