I have been extremly hard on Xenon's chances, but I'm trying to be realistic and open-minded in this topic. Launching earlier & having a Christmas holiday advantage could be extremly good for them if done right. For example, Episode III (I just have this feeling), is going to be HUGE...a new Xenon version of an Episode III game stacked up against "inferior" current generation versions could be big for MS. They've already done alot to steal alot of N64 fans (FPS's, RARE games, Tom Clansey games, Star Wars games). At launch, you can absolutly bet on a RARE game, a Tom Clansey game, FPS's & PC ports galore and with the best version of the new Episode III game they solidfy their market and those audiences from the getgo...all before (thanks to an early launch) PS3 even comes out. But we still don't know some key things about Xenon:
1) We *still* don't know what's going on with BC. I think BC is *very* important as it'll help the transition from the first X-BOX over to Xenon, plus PS2er's who didn't own an X-BOX this generation would be attracted to the fact that they could get two brand new system's libraries (X-BOX & Xenon games) just by buying one system. Plus it's a feature the competition will have, not having it just makes them look bad as well as hurts the transistion from X-BOX to Xenon. They may be able to afford it, but could they better spend that money/energy on other stuff like: better tech., better features or a next-generation disc format?
2) We also don't know about that HD-DVD situation. NEC/Toshiba may go out of their way to get a HD-DVD drive in Xenon so that their format has more footing against BR than they would have without it being in there. This could definatly help MS as they could probably cut a better deal and save money, but even in late 2005 I doubt a HD-DVD drive will be cheap. Still though, it's a cost that will eventually go down unlike some of the fixed costs in the first X-BOX so they could later maintain that "road to profitablility" mentality that way. A big question may be though...what would win between BR & HD-DVD...even if HD-DVD uses Xenon to "launch" into the mainstream earlier than BR in PS3 will it matter? I even question how willing the public will be to adopt a next generation disc format already, especially when there's two competiting formats of which no one will know who'll "win". Yeah, it'd be good for games 'cos of higher capacity discs and faster transfer rates thru the drives...but people may not be ready for a new disc format in 2006, let alone 2005. I think as far as next generation movie discs goes it won't matter until HDTV's have more mainstream penetration which won't be until mid-way thru the next generation of game consoles, if-not...even later. So who knows, it might even be best to save (LOTS OF) money by sticking with a faster DVD drive and not fighting in the HD-DVD vs BR war...but will MS risk that?
3) Features. With MS talking up games and saying that Xenon will strictly be about games is that what people want/expect from MS? MS wants to turn a profit next generation, this much is clear...so they may have to cut the HD, cut BC and who knows, they may not even go with a next generation disc format. I know alot of people are sorta waiting for the next X-BOX to record CD's, be a media center, have TiVo and be a "PC in a box" even...what will they say when there's no HD, no industry standerd feature like BC and it could be extremly risky to either choose the wrong next-generation disc format or to even not have one at all. Alot of people who bought the first X-BOX, bought it 'cos of it's power edge and it's features...what happens when MS not only comes out (arguably) too early with Xenon, but also comes out without the power edge and/or features people EXPECT from them?
If PS3 is coming out that soon (March 2006) in Japan, and if MS can do the right thing with the big 3 questions I posed above then maybe a Christmas 2005 launch isn't a bad idea whatsoever...I mean it's not like the technilogical gap is going to be THAT big. Of course with competition right around the corner (not to mention PSP's push will be around the same time) in 2006 MS is going to have to do just about everything right to keep the momentum going into Xenon's launch and get enough support from publishers & gamers for that early launch to pay off.
People keep downplaying the BC issue, but I think it's a big one 'cos if they don't do it then it won't look good to their image...and image has been key to why everyone veiws them as a serious competitior to Sony. Not only that, but I think such a feature would REALLY attract a new audience who was thinking about buying the first X-BOX, but never did...if that feature isn't there, then alot of people will just wait for PS3. You say it only matters in the first couple of months...well...those will be the most crucial to the Xenon's life 'cos that's all it may have on the market alone to get a headstart...they need everything to make that worth their while. Then BC is also important due to the transition into next generation...they want to drop the money-losing X-BOX like a brick, without BC to it though, where does that leave their current fans and recent buyers? Game projects will either have to stay on the X-BOX which is prematurly on it's way out or will have to be moved to Xenon to catch attention...the momentum they have suddenly hits a brick wall durring a (again, arguably) premature jump into next generation. GAMECUBE & PS2 will have a good "last breath" around Xenon's launch *cough*Zelda*cough* while the first X-BOX will look lacking...yeah Xenon is there, but without BC it loses alot of momentum it might've had and definatly needed. Then couple the "bad news" of no BC in Xenon with anything else remotly "bad" and their image they worked so hard for *cough*billionsofdollars*cough* will start to go down the tubes.
Look at GAMECUBE, Nintendo had alot of momentum going into the "Dolphin" announcement...when it was unveiled with a toylike look and lack of DVD...BAM...most people pegged it as 3RD place before it even launched. That's why E3 2005 will be so interesting next year. *snickers*
