Mr_Furious
Member
Ask yourself this question: would the Xbox be as successful today if it didn't have a built-in HD? If your opinion is no then MS might be making a mistake by not including one in it's successor.
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Xenon NOT too early?
- Thread starter BeOnEdge
- Start date
MightyHedgehog
Member
Mr_Furious said:
I'm guessing that, from all of the talk and hints about it, there will be a substantial amount of fast rewrite space internally held in the system (scratch space, perhaps virtual video memory for textures, map data, and such). As for things like the custom soundtracks and DLC, if the standard memory devices are fast enough and have a large enough minimum amount of space to store data, you'll be able to do everything that was done on XBOX. Large capacity flash data devices are dirt-cheap nowadays. M-Systems has talked about a proprietary design for Xenon...so I'm really not concerned. The only thing lost in the next-gen system is the fact that you have to buy the memory card/device in addition to the system...but that'll be the same for Sony and Nintendo, most certainly (as GC and PS2 compatibility is touted by both Nintendo and Sony for their next-gen efforts...I don't see the memory card ports going away for them.)
ur right. i always wonder about that. i mean people say harddrives would cost MS a bundle yet there are 30-40 gig drives out there that are $30 after rebate! when buying in bulk, wouldnt that make HDs cheaper than the rebate price? adding only like $15-$20 to the overall price of the hardware?
The problem is that Sony and Nintendo make so much money screwing people over on memcard sales. Freaking $30 for an 8MB memcard. Microsoft is looking at that and thinking they do not want to miss out on easy money next gen.
If you have an installed base of say 50 million and you're selling even just one memcard to people, that an extra $1.5 Billion in revenues.
If you have an installed base of say 50 million and you're selling even just one memcard to people, that an extra $1.5 Billion in revenues.
Well there are two problems there. For the Xbox MS pays a lot more that they should for the hard drives. It may have changed but I remember last year when they published how much they paid for the 8/10 Gbytes hard drives the number was quite incredible.BeOnEdge said:
The second problem is reliability, the hard drive certainly is the biggest point of failure of the Xbox. I'd like to see how much it costs MS to send UPS to get your Xbox, repair it, then ship it back. And there is also the fact that when the hard drive dies, you lose all your saves...
But then I still hear Xbox 2 should have a hard drive, one way or another.
Well, I agree with that to an extent as well. It's fun to see the 180 most Xbox proponents have taken regarding the significance of hardware superiority too, and no doubt having the weakest chipset next gen will take away some of the appeal Xbox enjoyed this generation (and N64 before that)... in some ways it actually seems if Xbox & GameCube have essentially split N64's market (which was a breeding ground for both colorful family games and bloody fps). But that's a little beside the point... in terms of Xenon, I've really just got this gut feeling MS is going to do mostly everything right. Despite the spec difference, I don't think there'll be a noticable visual disparity in Xenon, PS3 or Rev games. Microsoft also seems to have some good momentum going in (at least in English speaking nations) and there's rumblings of developer support already building things for launch... I dunno, I just feel like Xenon will be Microsoft's "Genesis".DrGAKMAN said:
As far as I've been told, the specs of Xenon have been changed (positively of course) quite a bit since the last leaked infos from last year. I've heard from numerous sources that we should be pleasantly surprised by the power of this console. Too bad no one gave me any detail though.
I don't think the difference between PS3 and X2 will be as big as expected, at least for the first few years since it's expected that X2 will take far less time for the programmers to use efficiently than PS3. Sony took the road of once again doing something new, and X2 is more or less logical evolution of the current Xbox, especially the XDK environment who's basically the same.
I don't think the difference between PS3 and X2 will be as big as expected, at least for the first few years since it's expected that X2 will take far less time for the programmers to use efficiently than PS3. Sony took the road of once again doing something new, and X2 is more or less logical evolution of the current Xbox, especially the XDK environment who's basically the same.
sonycowboy
Member
Blimblim said:
Well, the problem is nobody else wants to make 8/10GB hard drives. So for manufacturers to make them ONLY for the XBox means they have to pay. I mean if you're going to bother with the components, the manufacturing time, etc, there's a minimum you'll have to pay. The actual physical costs are almost exactly the same between a 8/10GB drive and a 100GB drive.
The difference between next-gen console's h/w, is going to depend on the draw of the dice(is that the correct saying?), 45nm or 65nm, and whether it's aggressive or conservative. Ms is likely to use 90nm tech, so it all depends on lady luck... That is I'm sure engineers at sony/toshiba/ibm fabs, are going full speed ahead, if they manage to pull 45nm it will be a blow of epic proportions for intel... and .15micron(xbox) aggressive->(two processes, .13, 90nm, ahead) 90nm conservative(likely xbox2) is < THAN 90nm conservative -> 45nm aggressive(two processes,65, 45nm ahead). 
DCharlie said:
Well Toshiba are hardly known for their graphics accelerators are they?
Sure, they are offloading some of the cost, but most likely in return for a share of future spoils. Not the same as paying a big wad of cash to Nvidia/ATI.
My point really though, was that MS seem to see PC tech as easy to understand, as its part of their knowledge base.
but that only works to a point. You could argue that consoles are not PCs, and the same rules do not apply. Xbox worked, but the timing of that vs PS2 launch meant that PC technology was already ahead of PS2. Won't be the same next time around.
Just checking, but do 'we' know it's non-cell based for sure now?DCharlie said:
Anyway I was under impression that this is still being done 'at Sony' so perhaps not entirely dissimilar from colllaboration on Cell.
Uhmm - unless you're privy to to actual transistor counts on Xenon those observations are kinda hard to make... except for Ram, where it's simple...Dopey said:
If it's 256MB, then it's behind the Moore's curve, if it's 512MB, it's above it.
Though I agree that CPUs are probably seeing the biggest jump on upcoming consoles (at least relative to PC market).
HDDs have mechanical parts, size and heat dissipation issue, and their prices don't really scale that well with time. Builtin flash memory should be cheaper to produce in bulk, especially if MS did it themselves, and it would definately scale better over time.BeOnEdge said:
jarrod said:
They have momentum, but momentum is built on mindshare...if/when they lose features, lose the power edge, make the wrong decisions then they also lose that mindshare. Becuase MS went nuts on the first X-BOX's design I think people sorta expect alot more from MS, when they end up giving less they'll run into problems.
As far as developer support goes, yeah, I think developers don't want the same situation they had this generation (one dominant platform & two WAY behind platforms) so they're gonna throw some weight into MS's corner. But I think we hear mainly those "rumblings" 'cos Xenon is obviously the closest to market of the next generation systems...not neccessarily 'cos MS is doing everything right.
And yeah, alot of people are getting the Genesis vibe from Xenon, but I'm getting more of a GAMECUBE like vibe. Not that that's a bad thing, 'cos it'll lead them into a better business structure & more efficient cost-effective system architecture, but I see Xenon (like GAMECUBE) losing mindshare...especially if they lose BC, the HD, a next generation disc format & other features just to save money!
deadhorse32
Bad Art
MrSingh said:according to "loud mouth" it's not cell-based.
MrSingh delivers AGAIN
I just want ESPN NFL2K6/7 and ESPN NBA2K6/7 on either X-Box 2 or PS3... I want incredible control and games that are almost exactly like watching NFL and NBA on TV.
I want to say holy shit when looking at the graphics... that looks almost like real-life... no funk that I want to say "that looks exactly like real-life"
Is that going to be possible?
I want to say holy shit when looking at the graphics... that looks almost like real-life... no funk that I want to say "that looks exactly like real-life"
Is that going to be possible?
Considering this generation's football games have shown flashes of broadcast TV realism at times during close-ups and between-play cut-scenes (like the first time seeing the breath of a player in the cold air in NFL 2K as he ran back to the huddle after a play), next generation will definitely have a lot of that too. With the big improvement to lighting coming up, things should look a lot more realisitc during gameplay angles as well, but it definitely won't be 100% perfect yet.
deadhorse32
Bad Art
BeOnEdge said:
no Cell-based GPU
CPU is still Cell-based
If I were M$, I would release the Xenon in a modular format. I wouldn't doubt if this is exactly what they are planning.
Release a bare bones Xenon console (1 controller, no game, no HDD, no mem stick, no BC) for $249-$299 in Nov'05.
The exact same day, the following "peripherals" could also be made available:
- 512MB - 1024MB flash cards (for saving games, small Xbox live downloads, small mp3 playlists/soundtracks)
- 40 to 320 GB hard drives (for saving games, faster load times, large Xbox live downloads + expansions, large mp3 playlists and custom soundtracks, better MMOG performance and compatibility)
- HDTV PVR capture card (could be a combo with the HD)
- An Xbox backwards compatibility add-on card for $50 (w/ properly licensed tech from Nvidia)
- Xenon Live Starter kit
This way they've removed the most expensive and risky components, while maximizing the potential mass market sales for the Xenon. The hardcore who want the ideal gaming rig and demand BC, PVR functionality, custom soundtracks, downloadable levels, etc. can pay extra for that functionality. The mass market Xenon consumers, will likely not miss these features and probably wouldn't have purchased the Xenon if their inclusion would have increased the price to > $300.
(Of course, the inclusion of those functions at an attractive, but unlikely price of <$300 would encourage mass market purchases. I just don't believe many of the mass market consumers would get true value out of custom soundtracks and downloadable costumes for MK8, etc. PVR would be huge for the mass market, but would be cost prohibitive.)
This is similar to Sony's approach with the PS2 (no HD in box, separate Ethernet adapter, memory cards....) which gave them a significant cost reduction advantage (not retail price advantage).
From an economics perspective, a modular design is the best approach to any convergent device (IMHO). Pay for what you want to use. Upgrade to extra functionality when you want and can afford it.
I'd pay for it all on day one! (But I'm not the average guy, and Sony & M$ aren't really interested in me, they want the mass market. They have to go through the hardcore first, and develop platform credibility and word of mouth, but what they really want is the millions of regular guys who buy 2 games/year and play Halo/Socom with buddies on the weekend.)
Some of you will surely argue that if you make these functions peripherals, developers will never develop their games to take advantage of them because typical attach rates for peripherals is quite low. This isnt entirely accurate. There have been many successful widely supported peripherals released on consoles.
Successful peripherals (defined by widespread developer support):
- N64 Ram Pack, PSone Dual Analogue controller, Xbox Live, 6 button Genesis controller
Unsuccessful peripherals (defined by the lack of widespread developer support):
- Super Scope 6, PS2 HD, NES running pad, etc. (Need I go on?)
Taking a quick look IMHO, popular peripherals can attribute their success to two factors - relatively inexpensive price, and considerable support from 1st Party Content.
In addition to pricing and 1st Party support, M$ could ensure developer support for the Xenon peripherals like the Flash Cards and HD by making them Standard Technical Requirements for all Xenon games. (This would be controversial, but not completely unbelievable). The result is that all games playable on the basic core Xenon, must also support HD features like reduced load time or custom soundtrack functionality. Presuming that the Xenon SDK is robust enough, it could theoretically be simple for every game to have FC and HD compatibility.
Release a bare bones Xenon console (1 controller, no game, no HDD, no mem stick, no BC) for $249-$299 in Nov'05.
The exact same day, the following "peripherals" could also be made available:
- 512MB - 1024MB flash cards (for saving games, small Xbox live downloads, small mp3 playlists/soundtracks)
- 40 to 320 GB hard drives (for saving games, faster load times, large Xbox live downloads + expansions, large mp3 playlists and custom soundtracks, better MMOG performance and compatibility)
- HDTV PVR capture card (could be a combo with the HD)
- An Xbox backwards compatibility add-on card for $50 (w/ properly licensed tech from Nvidia)
- Xenon Live Starter kit
This way they've removed the most expensive and risky components, while maximizing the potential mass market sales for the Xenon. The hardcore who want the ideal gaming rig and demand BC, PVR functionality, custom soundtracks, downloadable levels, etc. can pay extra for that functionality. The mass market Xenon consumers, will likely not miss these features and probably wouldn't have purchased the Xenon if their inclusion would have increased the price to > $300.
(Of course, the inclusion of those functions at an attractive, but unlikely price of <$300 would encourage mass market purchases. I just don't believe many of the mass market consumers would get true value out of custom soundtracks and downloadable costumes for MK8, etc. PVR would be huge for the mass market, but would be cost prohibitive.)
This is similar to Sony's approach with the PS2 (no HD in box, separate Ethernet adapter, memory cards....) which gave them a significant cost reduction advantage (not retail price advantage).
From an economics perspective, a modular design is the best approach to any convergent device (IMHO). Pay for what you want to use. Upgrade to extra functionality when you want and can afford it.
I'd pay for it all on day one!
(But I'm not the average guy, and Sony & M$ aren't really interested in me, they want the mass market. They have to go through the hardcore first, and develop platform credibility and word of mouth, but what they really want is the millions of regular guys who buy 2 games/year and play Halo/Socom with buddies on the weekend.)Some of you will surely argue that if you make these functions peripherals, developers will never develop their games to take advantage of them because typical attach rates for peripherals is quite low. This isnt entirely accurate. There have been many successful widely supported peripherals released on consoles.
Successful peripherals (defined by widespread developer support):
- N64 Ram Pack, PSone Dual Analogue controller, Xbox Live, 6 button Genesis controller
Unsuccessful peripherals (defined by the lack of widespread developer support):
- Super Scope 6, PS2 HD, NES running pad, etc. (Need I go on?)
Taking a quick look IMHO, popular peripherals can attribute their success to two factors - relatively inexpensive price, and considerable support from 1st Party Content.
In addition to pricing and 1st Party support, M$ could ensure developer support for the Xenon peripherals like the Flash Cards and HD by making them Standard Technical Requirements for all Xenon games. (This would be controversial, but not completely unbelievable). The result is that all games playable on the basic core Xenon, must also support HD features like reduced load time or custom soundtrack functionality. Presuming that the Xenon SDK is robust enough, it could theoretically be simple for every game to have FC and HD compatibility.
element
Member
won't happen this generation. The addition of a video input would raise costs. Now network client based video/audio/photos should be on Xenon and PS3.
depends if the addons are for added fuctionality to improve games (faster load times, improved graphics, whatever) or if they are novelty addons to add more space for more save space either for game saves (which don't need specifically a hard drive, just any storage media), custom soundtracks (again any storage media will work), or downloadable content (again, just any storage media).
Datawhore said:
This is what should be combo'd btw. As BC would need a HD.
I'm sure BC could be done in this way, just something within the Xbox2 to recognise Xbox discs and just simply to bypass the xbox2 hardware. If you don't have the add-on it would just come up with a message akin to playing a DVD without the kit.
Nos_G said:
did you even read my entire post? By making support for the peripherals Technical Game Requirements all devs would have to include some functionality for the peripherals, even at the most base level. Microsoft could easily encourage this functionality itself with its SDK & tools.
Datawhore said:
Forcing support on such peripherals when it's not guaranteed would drive devs absolutely crazy. On top of that it would really screw budgets. More coding, more things to implement, more things to take care of. More things to test, more things to go through QA.
Even if Microsoft provides a template, engines vary and work arounds would have to be coded. It would just not make sense from an economical perspective to a business perpective.
Assuming Xenon would have the hard drive as an option, it would not require much more work to NOT support the hard drive (eg game saves, custom soundtrack and content download) than what the developpers already do on the Xbox. They would not have to support anything new, just disable some stuff they already had to code anyway.DopeyFish said:
Wasnt it announced ages ago that MS is having large capacity flash memory sticks made for them? I dont think there will be a 8 meg card or anything near that size, 256 will probably be the base, probably going up into a couple of gigs. There wont be a hard drive addon as it wouldnt do anything the flash memory couldnt do. I doubt there will be any option for BC (which will be a blow in 2005 as i mentioned (much) earlier) because although Xenon is still PC based on the software and prgramming side of things the hardware has moved from the almost identical to PC architecture and components that xbox has.
disabledHeliocentric
Member
Whatever the hardware is, regardless, Microsoft must launch with enough of a bang that developers are on board right away with not just multiplatform games but exclusives too.
Otherwise the PS3 will launch with superior hardware and a lot of third party support, it will have a lot of exclusives AND the best versions of multi platform games. If Sony can get more PC ports they'd really slam Microsoft.
Otherwise the PS3 will launch with superior hardware and a lot of third party support, it will have a lot of exclusives AND the best versions of multi platform games. If Sony can get more PC ports they'd really slam Microsoft.
Do The Mario
Unconfirmed Member
I think the hard drive is a must, it's one of the best features of the Xbox i think it would be huge step backwards not to have it!
The Xbox 2 might not be able to handle many PC ports without it! Or porting might be more complex.
The Xbox 2 might not be able to handle many PC ports without it! Or porting might be more complex.
Do The Mario said:I think the hard drive is a must, it's one of the best features of the Xbox i think it would be huge step backwards not to have it!
The Xbox 2 might not be able to handle many PC ports without it! Or porting might be more complex.
Well as oxy mentioned, they wont necessarily lose any features.
As long as theres somewhere to put the data i dont see why it would be more difficult than prgramming for the multiple cpus that they've already confirmed, its not like the PC ports install themselves to the hard drive on Xbox.
I believe that all standard Xbox features (custom soundtracks, downloadables from Live, faster loading, etc.) will still be supported in Xenon via either the flash memory devices or an optional hard disk. It could very well be possible that everyone needs to purchase a flash memory stick on day one in order to save games anyways. In Nov'05, a 256MB key could be as little as $29.99 USD. It could be conceivable that this would also be the minimum size.
maximum360
Member
The good thing regarding flash memory is that prices have dropped dramatically in the last few months. In the beginning of the year a 1 GB Secure Digital card was $350 (cheapeast price). Now you can find deals everyday and some have the prices down to even the $60 range (the price drop is quite unreal). Also, Compact Flash cards are even better since you'll probably be able to get a 2 GB card for $100 now. By the time we see Xbox 2 we should start see 4 GB CF cards for $100 and 2 GB SD cards for $60.