FWIW, being I follow weather patterns and tornados a lot (some of you will notice me int he tornado threads)...
This year is, actually by most meteorologist NOT in the media eye, an anomalous year.
I want to tread lightly here because:
1) This can easily get political
2) I am not making any statement on "climate change" or anything to that affect, just wanting to discuss facts.
This year is setting the stage similar to 1998. People have short memory banks and only remember what is happening now, especially with the way news is presented today, with words like "emergency" or "record breaking" driving clicks.
In 1998 there was massive droughts, records broken in certain parts of the world / USA. California was particularly hit hard, multiple deaths due to the droughts and temps, etc. This was caused by what most meteorologist consider to be a "Super El Nino". The Super El Nino Trend is rare, doesn't occur and needs certain variables to do so. This year, that has been showing it's teeth as a distinct possibility as this El Nino has looked very strong (hence some of the wild and tornadic weather). This is why you haven't heard an insane amount of hype about Hurricane season, because most hurricane researchers tend to agree this year will be average at best, due to the building "Super El Nino".
On top of that, the Saharan Dust blowing over the Atlantic was very late /stunted this year. This is actually what caused the heating of the Atlantic ocean. The trade winds we depend on didn't deliver as per the norm. This has potentially happened before as well, it just usually isn't ALSO timed with a Super El NIno event, and the 2 combined has created some havoc on ocean temperatures.
Now, not all of that is concrete. Some of the researchers have bumped up hurricane calculations slightly, due to the fact that the Super El Nino seems to be breaking apart a bit and losing strength. It may not end up being so "super" and just a tad bit stronger than usual in it's stretch. This is good and bad.
Bad because it will allow hurricane activity to potentially ramp back up as it's wind shear lifts from the Atlantic.
Good because if it stays strong, like 1998, you can expect very warm winters and EXTREMELY violent weather potential in the Southeastern USA. I touched on the 1998 droughts at the start of the last Super El Nino, but I didn't touch on the 1998 winter season for the Southeast and especially Florida. In 1998, February dawned the worst Tornado outbreak in Florida history, notably during the "Night of the Tornados" which saw a long track F4 (later downgraded to F3) track long from the Central to North East region of the state, causing multiple fatalities. It was only one of DOZENS of Tornados. The rest of the southeast saw similar, Birmingham F5 was one of the most notable during that stretch.
In short, wall of text over and great and all - this
should be an anomalous year in a few ways. While the El Nino comes in, you can and will expect a few things moving forward for potentially a couple of years since we are exiting a La Nina. The Winter season is typically warmer in the USA during El Nino. The Hurricane season is typically lower, though the ocean temps this year may elevate that number this year. Chaotic winter weather is more likely, don't at all be surprised to see Tornado activity in the winter (frankly, this isn't rare anyway contrary to popular belief).
Source: Friend is a meteorologist and I spend way too much time studying tornados... for some reason.
Edit: here is some info on the 1998 Florida Tornado Outbreak:
en.wikipedia.org
Here is some info on the 1998 Super El Niño:
Super El Niño 1997-1998
