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Lets talk about Nintendo going 3rd party (from an economics perspective)

Some people need to start thinking outside the box and realise that in the last 5 years the world has changed a lot.

Sure Nintendo would love to sell a lot of plastic boxes to play their games, but the N64, Gamecube and Wii U are proof this is becoming harder and harder.

Some math that's probably wrong.

Lets say Mario Kart 8 sells 5 million Wii Us (at a loss apparantly, but lets say Nintendo makes 20 bucks each Wii U sold) and 6 million MK8 copies total. That's 5 million times 20 + 6 million times 60 dollars (ignoring costs). That's 460 million dollars.

Now lets say on other platforms Nintendo makes half of that, 30 dollars per game. So to make the same money by selling Mario Kart 8 on PC, Xbone and PS4, they need to sell 700/30 = 15,3 million copies.

Sounds doable to me.

And this will only be a part of Nintendos business because they could sell Mario Kart on phones and tablets too.
 
It's certain they had nothing to do with anything during development. Platinum was looking for a publisher and they found one that unfortunately is in such a dire position that can't even approve a sequel. Bayonetta has some slight Sega references that were probably added later in development cause Kamiya likes easter eggs.

Wasn't the whole missile riding stage a Space Harrier reference? And the highway stage a Outrun/Hang-On reference? I may be mistaken, its been a couple years since I've played it. And really, what publisher would want to pay for a sequel to Bayonetta? As much as I enjoy it, I don't begrudge Sega for not wanting to throw money away on it. Nintendo obviously saw an opportunity to pad their weak 1st party lineup, and I'm glad they did, but I don't think it will turn a profit for them.

You still don't get it. I'm on the same boat, i used to worship Sega, but take off those rose tinted glasses plz, Sega will never again have a team that will develop a game internally that has the potential to wow people. It's over, a long time now.
And believe it or not i'm not a Senmue fan, i mentioned it cause it has a very dedicated fanbase. I'm much more into all those wacky experimental games of the NAOMI/DC era like Cosmic Smash.

You've made the wrong assumption. I have no love for old Sega. I got burned on a 32X and never looked back. Only after they went 3rd party and they started publishing awesome games like HotD: Overkill, Vanquish, Bayonetta, Binary Domain, Condemned, etc., was when I became a fan.

It is very bad, idk where are you from and you may see it differently if you live in one of the 2 countries i mentioned. Everywhere else it's non existent, and i repeat, this situation does not please me.

I'm just a simple American bumpkin, so I'll have to take your word for.

They have the staff, the know-how, the funds and the artistic and technical experience to do so. What they need to do is adapt to current times. I bet my head that a WiiU with the exact same specs, but with a different name like Nintendo Revolution or something badass like this, a full modern account system and online infrastructure, region free and competent marketing could do miracles.
Oh, and i think the gamepad is a bad idea. I like it but i'd prefer if it had a pro controller bundled and handheld support for off tv/second screen like the PS4/Vita combo.

I insist on my belief that their player-base, the people that actually want to play those games is shrinking but it's more than the few millions that own a WiiU and Nintendo has to expand their way of thinking but without losing themselves in the process.

Additionally i want to add that the way i see it, mobile is now a direct threat, not only to Nintendo but to the whole industry, but i can see it losing it's appeal soon. As i have said before, mobile gaming is sustained by a user-base that is know to migrate to the next best thing, they are not loyal to anything and if you want me to say it they are the same crowd that made the Wii the hit it is right now.
Those users will move on and gaming will belong to dedicated platforms again, but in the meanwhile it's important that those platform owners, publishers and developers stay into business till the storm pass.

I largely agree, although I don't know how much people care about the account system outside of guys like you and me. Facebook games collapsed, and mobile games may collapse or hit a saturation point. But I'm skeptical that audience will all come running back to Nintendo specifically, or even consoles at all.
 
Hasn't Nintendo lost money the last 3 years in a row? Why do Nintendo fans think its a good idea for Nintendo to keep making games and hardware that few people are buying when its hurting their bottom line?
Because, believe it or not, it's almost certainly less expensive than going third party. Changes require money. Firing and hiring people, training people with new hardware, changing the marketing, shutting down factories, these things all require lots of money.

And for what? To sell games for less revenue on rival consoles, gambling that some huge unknown untapped audience there will buy them that hasn't already?
 
Hasn't Nintendo lost money the last 3 years in a row? Why do Nintendo fans think its a good idea for Nintendo to keep making games and hardware that few people are buying when its hurting their bottom line?

Yes and no

Operating loss all three years

Net loss in FY3/2012
Net profit in FY3/2013
Projected net loss in FY3/2014 (the one that just ended). Though the Q1 through Q3 results were much better in this fiscal year, several one time things happened (one time injection of 15bn yen into R&D, 8bn yen into marketing among others) which caused them to project a loss.

Last year, despite being at an operating loss, Nintendo did make money and added it to the pot. While much of it was due to currency factors, that also aided in the loss the year previous (as did the 3DS suddenly taking off, selling 11m units at a loss in six months)
 
Because, believe it or not, it's almost certainly less expensive than going third party. Changes require money. Firing and hiring people, training people with new hardware, changing the marketing, shutting down factories, these things all require lots of money.

And for what? To sell games for less revenue on rival consoles, gambling that some huge unknown untapped audience there will buy them that hasn't already?

And what is the other option? Their huge franchises barely selling on bombing platforms like 3D World did?
 
There is no audience in this earth that continuously skips games they like for years waiting for the platform owner to go third party.

Except ofc if... is that sarcasm AniHawk?

I've known people to do this since the N64. There are a bunch of PlayStation and Xbox gamers who will either borrow or temporarily buy a Nintendo console to play one game like Mario Galaxy or Zelda, and then either let the console collect dust or get rid of it for another year until the next Nintendo game comes out.

I have no doubt people would buy Nintendo's games on PlayStation and Xbox provided they're as good.
 
And what is the other option? Their huge franchises barely selling on bombing platforms like 3D World did?
Changing their approach in a way that doesn't gut the company for a huge gamble. They did it with the Wii when they switched from pushing hardware to motion control and created an entirely new "all ages"-oriented brand look that was a farcry from the N64 and Gamecube days.

Same holds true for you. Who cares about hardware revenue when the hardware business incurs losses? And why would it devalue the company brand? For home consoles, the Nintendo brand currently is as dead as Elvis Presley.
Joke? Nintendo is still a known console competitor. That very status gives them more attention than they would have as a third party. We probably wouldn't care nearly as much about Sony's wonderful studios if they weren't under that larger umbrella.
 
Changing their approach in a way that doesn't gut the company. They did it with the Wii when they switched from pushing hardware to motion control and low pricing and created an entirely new brand look.

Wii is an outlier in the downward trend of Nintendo consoles. You're asking Nintendo to come up with a phenomenon twice, it's not going to happen.
 
Some people need to start thinking outside the box and realise that in the last 5 years the world has changed a lot.

Sure Nintendo would love to sell a lot of plastic boxes to play their games, but the N64, Gamecube and Wii U are proof this is becoming harder and harder.

Some math that's probably wrong.

Lets say Mario Kart 8 sells 5 million Wii Us (at a loss apparantly, but lets say Nintendo makes 20 bucks each Wii U sold) and 6 million MK8 copies total. That's 5 million times 20 + 6 million times 60 dollars (ignoring costs). That's 460 million dollars.

Now lets say on other platforms Nintendo makes half of that, 30 dollars per game. So to make the same money by selling Mario Kart 8 on PC, Xbone and PS4, they need to sell 700/30 = 15,3 million copies.

Sounds doable to me.

And this will only be a part of Nintendos business because they could sell Mario Kart on phones and tablets too.

How doable though?
I could be wrong here, but the only non-Nintendo games to break 15 million or more in the past gen were CoD, GTA IV/V and Minecraft on all 3 platforms combined.

Yes, Nintendo games have been shown to be able to sell remarkably well, but part of that is also due to them controlling their environment

Allowing them to bundle Mario Karts or New Super Mario Bros when sales are slow.. or packing in a controller at cost with a game to help it take off, or some silly peripheral that they can market then use for other games.


And what is the other option? Their huge franchises barely selling on bombing platforms like 3D World did?

They could re-evaluate their business model. Everyone always says they need to go bigger to compete with Sony and MS, but what about smaller.

Creating a box that they can sell for 200 bucks that makes them a profit. Doesn't need to be state of the art, and they can market themselves as the cheaper alternative.

Maybe make their ecosystem more open for mobile apps and indie games. They'll get support from some 3rd parties, not many, but it is still an option.
 
Shiggy in 2005 said:
You should read the full sentence. For home consoles, the brand is dead. Look at the sales of Gamecube, nobody wants that, nobody wants to develop for it. I don't want to imagine what the next generation will look like.

Hmm
 
The main problem is Nintendo not getting MODERN TRENDS in consoles and not out right full out competing. They have since the N64 tried to not directly compete in the consoles wars and that right there has slowly lead to them not being the force they were when the NES and SNES were out.

They don't need to be the most powerful console they just need to be inline with the rest and have the BASIC features the other guys have been doing all last gen. No Online or not getting it was stupid along with not haveing at least semi HD capable machine. (The PC was the only true HD machine last gen).

Seriously the problems of Nintendo stem from them ignoring basic truths about the industry this last decade and them not exploit those changes. Simple easy to use online, easy to use and account based Eshop(they finally sort of got that), and support for third parties buy making the system understandable and communicating the NOA and lettting them direct the ship because they are in the market not NOJ where you will make most of your money.

And doing some work on HD games so that you understand the modern game costs and development challenges (know problem when they started work in HD games that they had NO experience unlike everyone else in HD game making pipelines.) The do not need to leave the hardware space... they need to double down on a simple Nintendo based console that is easy to game on with ABCs of modern console. Oh and dump handhelds or at least go make a Nintendo phone(that might make a killing.)
 

The thing is that things have vastly changed. 3rd parties had not fully bailed out of Nintendo platforms when the GCN ended. Nor were there other big competitors such as Apple, Google, or now Amazon. With the advent of QoL services, even Iwata indicates that a change in business priorities might be necessary as he cannot recover the home console unit.
 
How doable though?
I could be wrong here, but the only non-Nintendo games to break 15 million or more in the past gen were CoD, GTA IV/V and Minecraft on all 3 platforms combined.

Yes, Nintendo games have been shown to be able to sell remarkably well, but part of that is also due to them controlling their environment

Allowing them to bundle Mario Karts or New Super Mario Bros when sales are slow.. or packing in a controller at cost with a game to help it take off, or some silly peripheral that they can market then use for other games.




They could re-evaluate their business model. Everyone always says they need to go bigger to compete with Sony and MS, but what about smaller.

Creating a box that they can sell for 200 bucks that makes them a profit. Doesn't need to be state of the art, and they can market themselves as the cheaper alternative.

Maybe make their ecosystem more open for mobile apps and indie games. They'll get support from some 3rd parties, not many, but it is still an option.

My math example is probably all kinds of wrong. I don't know if a cheap box would do all that differently to be honest.

The issue is that Nintendos target audience is kids, I don't think they will buy a seperate Nintendo box anymore. The kids are happy with their phones and tablets, while teens want to play shooting games on the 'big boys' consoles.

Welp no use in continuing their console business then!

They should go insurance-party.

Thanks for your contribution to the thread, bye now.
 
Hehehehe

But reading through all these posts, I just can't fathom all these "a succesful Nintendo console won't happen anymore" or "Nintendo's software doesn't move their own hardware, but they can surely find a new audience elsewhere!". Based on absolutely zilch. The real issue that Nintendo faces right now is that they made one very unattractive platform for consumers with Wii U, (but Gamecube! No, just no) but the console being this final nail on the coffin for Nintendo's hardware future is absolutely ludicrous.

If there's one fickle group of consumers, it's people buying electronics and software. It's very hard to predict what could be the next big hit and what's needed to make it a succes. And that kind of thinking becomes even harder when there are so many options available right now and possibly the future.
 
Nintendo should only go 3rd party if they deem it impossible to make money on their own platforms going forward and that's not going to happen anytime soon.

The thing is that things have vastly changed. 3rd parties had not fully bailed out of Nintendo platforms when the GCN ended. Nor were there other big competitors such as Apple, Google, or now Amazon. With the advent of QoL services, even Iwata indicates that a change in business priorities might be necessary as he cannot recover the home console unit.
3rd parties would love for Nintendo to have a platform that fits their needs so its not like they're for sure gone forever.
Hehehehe

But reading through all these posts, I just can't fathom all these "a succesful Nintendo console won't happen anymore" or "Nintendo's software doesn't move their own hardware, but they can surely find a new audience elsewhere!". Based on absolutely zilch. The real issue that Nintendo faces right now is that they made one very unattractive platform for consumers with Wii U, (but Gamecube! No, just no) but the console being this final nail on the coffin for Nintendo's hardware future is absolutely ludicrous.

If there's one fickle group of consumers, it's people buying electronics and software. It's very hard to predict what could be the next big hit and what's needed to make it a succes. And that kind of thinking becomes even harder when there are so many options available right now and possibly the future.

Nintendo needs to do a good job changing how certain people perceive them with their next device. Right now there are people that believe that its impossible for Nintendo to get back into the game because of the Wii U, but there are obviously things Nintendo could do to change that perception and moves they can make in order to create a successful console.
 
He's right in pointing it out though.
Why hop off your own downwards trend to go prop up someone else's, and most likely making less profit (or more of a loss) off of it too?

Thank you. Sony saw great success with the PS2 because they made the changes necessary in their strategy. Sony saw great losses because of the changes they failed to make with the PS3. Now, Sony is seeing success with the PS4 because of the changes they had to make after the PS3.

That to me sees like a series of ups and downs, something that doesn't signify completely turning your business model on its head.
 
You know believing goes both ways. People see what they want to see and make justifications for it. I, for one, don't want to see Nintendo go 3rd party if possible. Nintendo will have to make radical changes to make that happen and Nintendo will just become a shadow of its former self.
 
My math example is probably all kinds of wrong. I don't know if a cheap box would do all that differently to be honest.

The issue is that Nintendos target audience is kids, I don't think they will buy a seperate Nintendo box anymore. The kids are happy with their phones and tablets, while teens want to play shooting games on the 'big boys' consoles.



Thanks for your contribution to the thread, bye now.

Yeah, but you asked for an alternative.

There are roads they can try that's in this tradition model.

Or some out there stuff

Like sell a 50-100 dollar box which is kind of a set-top box that also streams Virtual Console games. Make sure you put them up in a much more timely manner. Charge, I don't know 10 bucks a month for access to the service.

Guess my point is, Nintendo's biggest problem isn't necessarily their dimishing hardware sales/revenue is that they don't have any other major source of income.

And dropping hardware completely would limit them to one possible source of income. What if a game like Mario Kart 9 doesn't movie 15.3 million units? What do they do then to prop up their bottom line?
 
He's right in pointing it out though.
Why hop off your own downwards trend to go prop up someone else's, and most likely making less profit (or more of a loss) off of it too?

Well, there aren't really enough data points to establish a "trend" if we do that. If we remove the PS2, it gives us 100 million for PS1 and 80 million for the PS3 (wikipedia numbers). PS4 is so early in its life it is difficult to extrapolate where it will be in 4-5 years. So yes, it gives us a drop of 20 million units, but only 2 data points.

I think most of us can agree that the Wii U is going to be lucky to break Gamecube numbers once this is all over. Assuming that and removing the Wii, we get 5 data points. Again, not a lot of data, but it does paint a much more dire picture for Nintendo.

Here's a possibly inaccurate graph I found on google to help illustrate:

Nintendo+Unit+Sales.png

And of course, their next system could sell a billion units and all this gets thrown out the window.
 
And what is the other option? Their huge franchises barely selling on bombing platforms like 3D World did?

The obvious other option is the one they chose. Expand to new markets with new hardware. They even told everyone who wanted to listen about it. 1) We are doing a QoL-Platform 2) We are not going 3rd party for a loooooong time.


.

Here's a possibly inaccurate graph I found on google to help illustrate:

And of course, their next system could sell a billion units and all this gets thrown out the window.

Ah, the good old "lets exclude this and this" game to prove a point.
 
Ah, the good old "lets exclude this and this" game to prove a point.

The purpose is simply to illustrate why people might say the Wii was a fluke. It goes against all the known data.

Time will be the true judge.

Perhaps in 20 years when we are all jacked into the Nintendo VR matrix we can look back on this thread and laugh.
 
Hehehehe

But reading through all these posts, I just can't fathom all these "a succesful Nintendo console won't happen anymore" or "Nintendo's software doesn't move their own hardware, but they can surely find a new audience elsewhere!". Based on absolutely zilch. The real issue that Nintendo faces right now is that they made one very unattractive platform for consumers with Wii U, (but Gamecube! No, just no) but the console being this final nail on the coffin for Nintendo's hardware future is absolutely ludicrous.

If there's one fickle group of consumers, it's people buying electronics and software. It's very hard to predict what could be the next big hit and what's needed to make it a succes. And that kind of thinking becomes even harder when there are so many options available right now and possibly the future.

That's because Wii U isn't merely a single failed platform, and its failure can't be judged in isolation from the rest of NCL's history. Almost every factor that brought it to this point - poor third-party relations, Japan-centrism, outdated online infrastructure, extreme insularity - is characteristic of how NCL has done business for multiple hardware generations, in some cases as far back as the N64 era.

Some growth at Nintendo for the next two years will most likely be through expansion of hardware-related businesses, including the new quality-of-life business, emerging market expansion of game systems, possibly low-cost hardware, Nintendo's new handheld device to succeed the popular 3DS...things like that. When accompanied with appropriate software / marketing / licensing responses, there's potential for success. Nintendo will have to do it right, but it can work.

I see very little chance of the 3DS successor reversing the rapid decline of the dedicated handheld market, or of a dedicated QOL platform making much headway in a lifestyle market that already has plenty of competition from iOS/Android apps and compatible accessories.
 
Here's a possibly inaccurate graph I found on google to help illustrate:
OK, let's do graphs, seems fun.

My attempt:
9rhfO4c.jpg

Sales of Nintendo consoles divided by the generation length.

Slightly less obvious doom...

I don't deny the truth behind your graph, but at the same time, NES was there for 8 years, (with little to no opposition), while N64 and GC had a shorter lifespan (and a strong opposition). I don't think you can compare just the sales.

And when I was working in scientific research, I think I remember that removing a point (especially with only 6) because 'it's an outlier' is quite bad practice ^_^
 
So once again: Why does one failure (especially after a massive success) somehow mean that Nintendo will never, ever make a profitable console again? If that logic were correct, Nintendo should have quit after the virtual boy? Maybe if Nintendo continues with the exact same strategies it used this generation it'd be bad, but that's assuming that it's absolutely impossible for them to learn or change their business model.
 
So once again: Why does one failure (especially after a massive success) somehow mean that Nintendo will never, ever make a profitable console again? If that logic were correct, Nintendo should have quit after the virtual boy? Maybe if Nintendo continues with the exact same strategies it used this generation it'd be bad, but that's assuming that it's absolutely impossible for them to learn or change their business model.
History is just repeating...

In 1983, Nintendo was doomed, consoles were objects from the past, it was "computers, computers, computers".

In 1989, Nintendo was doomed, monochrome console were objects from the past, it was "color, color, color".

In 1995, Nintendo was doomed, carts were objects from the past, it was "CD, CD, CD" (I distinctly remember an article saying, just before the 32bits arrives "Sega will win hands down, Sony will struggle, Nintendo is already dead", sic).

In 2006, Nintendo was doomed, SD was an absurdity, it was "HD, HD, HD".


So maybe it's now "mobile, mobile, mobile", or "digital, digital, digital"...

I agree that Nintendo faces a challenging situation. But I'll wait to see them dead before burying them.


Edit: In fact, I think that Nintendo fails when they don't look for an as affordable as possible solution. Yamauchi wanted the NES cheap (not a complete success, I know). GB was designed to be cheap. Wii was designed to be cheap. They usually try to find ideas that make cheap hardware as attractive as possible.
 
OK, let's do graphs, seems fun.

My attempt:
9rhfO4c.jpg

Sales of Nintendo consoles divided by the generation length.

Slightly less obvious doom...

I don't deny the truth behind your graph, but at the same time, NES was there for 8 years, (with little to no opposition), while N64 and GC had a shorter lifespan (and a strong opposition). I don't think you can compare just the sales.

And when I was working in scientific research, I think I remember that removing a point (especially with only 6) because 'it's an outlier' is quite bad practice ^_^

Fair enough, I ain't no statistician.
 
I don't really understand how that would benefit them that much. Sure, the Wii U is failing, but look at how much money they made on the Wii after failing with both the N64 and GameCube? How about we let them try again? They want and need to expand, not downsize.
 
Nintendo made more profit with the Wii/DS than Sony and MS game divisions combined in the last 18 years.From an economics perspective the potential rewards to Nintendo from a breakout hit dwarf any potential profit from going third party.
 
That's because Wii U isn't merely a single failed platform, and its failure can't be judged in isolation from the rest of NCL's history. Almost every factor that brought it to this point - poor third-party relations, Japan-centrism, outdated online infrastructure, extreme insularity - is characteristic of how NCL has done business for multiple hardware generations, in some cases as far back as the N64 era.
That might be the case, but at this point in time the Wii U won't reach the numbers posted by the N64 or Gamecube. Even with their "shortcomings", N64 still mangaged to sell over 30 million units. Gamecube only sold about 22 million units, but they still made some money. Wii had all those "problems" and it become a runaway succes by having a different controller carrying the system. For all they did "wrong" according to some, they still managed to make money out of all the three systems with this business model.

The Wii U might be a culmination of everything "wrong" in NCL's bussines practices, but it's the first home console that's costing them money and the first one that's really having a hard time to find it's place in the market. So yes, I think it's fair to say that we can isolate the Wii U from other Nintendo systems because it's not making them any money. That's the first time their business model is failing them. The only thing the Wii U's telling them now that in the console space they need to change. Are they up for the challenge? Who knows. But I'd rather see them give that approach a try instead of going third party.
 
I don't really understand how that would benefit them that much. Sure, the Wii U is failing, but look at how much money they made on the Wii after failing with both the N64 and GameCube? How about we let them try again? They want and need to expand, not downsize.

Because people have been so programmed in recent years to think that a single failure from a company means the company should fold, rather than try to correct itself.
They see all these CEOs basically driving a business under for a fatter severance package.

This isn't how a company should be run. Too many are short sighted. Looking only for profits in the coming year/quarter. Not "how can we stay in business for the next 100 years."
Nintendo certainly doesn't do everything right. And they are slow to adapt in a lot of ways. But they are looking for long term solutions, not short term profits that would likely put them under or make them shrink.
 
OK, let's do graphs, seems fun.

My attempt:
9rhfO4c.jpg

Sales of Nintendo consoles divided by the generation length.

Slightly less obvious doom...

I don't deny the truth behind your graph, but at the same time, NES was there for 8 years, (with little to no opposition), while N64 and GC had a shorter lifespan (and a strong opposition). I don't think you can compare just the sales.

And when I was working in scientific research, I think I remember that removing a point (especially with only 6) because 'it's an outlier' is quite bad practice ^_^

This kind of proves that Nintendo has never done well against competition. Or almost never anyway.

The NES was so successful because it went basically unopposed for a long time (except in Europe and maybe Brazil, I don't remember). I guess the SNES kept the Mega Drive/Genesis at bay, especially in Japan, though it was more even in North America and probably more in SEGA's favor in Europe. But since competition showed up that was actually willing to treat third party developers better, Nintendo hasn't recovered. Partly it's due to them never adapting to the environment where they have to fight for third party support. Partly it's due to Nintendo outright resisting current philosophies of console gaming.

Nintendo's dominated the handheld market for over 20 years likely because everyone else up until Apple has fucked up. That and Nintendo is the only manufacturer not afraid to put the full might of its first party studios on handheld games.
 
Nobody provided a larger audience than Nintendo did on their own last generation. To say that another publisher would definitely do so is not really grounded in reality. Furthermore it takes that control of their own destiny out of Nintendo's hands. It means hoping another company does what's in your best interests, which is never as sure of a thing as you doing it yourself.

Let's not kid ourselves now. Wii was bought by extremely casual consumers hooked by the waggle gimmick and Wii Sports/Fit, it had very little to do with people wanting to own classic Nintendo franchises. NSMB Wii and MK Wii both sold tremendously well because people needed more games to play once they got bored of Wii Sports, Wii Play and Wii Fit and Mario is still a household name from his success in the 80's and 90's.

And another company providing a large install base for Nintendo to sell their games on is "not grounded in reality" ?. How about Sony, a company that has sold almost 450 million consoles in the past 20 years ?... On top of that PS4 is off to an incredible start outselling WiiU's 16 month Worldwide sales in just 4 months. There is nothing to suggest PS4 won't match PS3's 80+ million hardware sales, infact most people seem to think it will be nearer PS1 hardware sales of 105 million.

So first you say Nintendo should go third party to get access to a wider audience, then you say they should go exclusive to a platform-holder, which would then reduce that audience size again. Make up your mind. And Nintendo would have to sell DRASTICALLY more to make the same amount of money. You guys seem to think that's a guarantee but there's absolutely no logic to that.

You have ignored a point in the OP and a point in my post you are replying to. Most third party publishers pay a $15 royalty fee to release a game on a Sony or MS console. Nintendo games would be so valuable to both companies as an extra hook that there could easily be a deal in place which see's Nintendo not having to pay the royalty fee at all or a significantly reduced amount in exchange for Nintendo not releasing their games on Sony or MS's rival console.

Game & Wario, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Sonic Lost World, Wind Waker HD, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U and DKC Tropical Freeze have all absolutely bombed at retail on WiiU. They wouldn't be losing out on money by selling twenty or even thirty times the number of copies of their own first party games that the much larger PS4/XBone install base allows. And please don't parrot the same idiotic statements some people make to justify Nintendo staying on their own console like "the PS/XB dude bro gamers don't want Mario and Zelda", it's an extremely stupid generalisation.

People act like WiiU is still selling like Wii and that by giving up home console hardware Nintendo would be losing billions. Currently they would go from losing money on every system sold to not losing anything.

Let's not forget, 18 months after launch, WiiU is still being sold at a loss at $299 with Mr Iwata recently saying they could not afford to drop the price yet again.

I'm not so sure that Sony's marketing is all that great. Sacrificing goats, weird spinning baby heads in a room, white is coming, it's a nut you can play outside with?

Nintendo's marketing was top-notch during the Wii and DS generation, in the meantime, with "Wii Would Like to Play" as one of the best advertising campaigns I've ever seen, and the DS marketing attracting a ton of the expanded market.

We need to stop looking at the past and instead look at what's happening right now. Sony are killing it with PS4 marketing both hardware and software, they have sold 7 million consoles in just six months, the numbers speak for themselves. All the while Nintendo have billions of dollars worth of unsold WiiU stock sitting around in factories and stores across the globe with the console struggling to hit the 5 million sales mark after 18 months on the market.

But really, the issue is that last gen Sony had bad products they were trying to sell, without a clear message, and marketing couldn't save it. Similarly, the Wii U is a bad product without a clear message, and marketing can't save it. But unless you think Nintendo can never make good hardware again (a ridiculous claim), the point is moot.

Yet PS3 still managed to sell over 80 million units. I also never said "good hardware", I said powerful hardware to make it as easy as possible for third party developers to create games for.

The Wii was the fastest selling console in history without either, though.

Again the Wii was a fluke, the right gimmick, at the right time, at the right price. Look at Nintendo home console sales, ignore the Wii and it's been on a downward spiral since the early 90's. Basing your entire business strategy on catching "lightning in a bottle" again is extremely foolish.

The XB1/PS4 hardware isn't exactly "up to date," it's old by PC standards.

I was obviously talking about home consoles, PS4 could be 5x as powerful as it is and it would still be considered "weak" or "old" next to cutting edge PC standards which now offer 5GHz CPU's, 12TFLOP GPU's and 32GB's of RAM if you're willing to spend the cash.

So instead of "wasting" billions on R&D and hardware, you'd rather them just waste all of that talent and fire them (which costs money, believe it or not) and seriously reduce the size of the company? Just start dumping assets and retooling, spending years to get any sort of efficiency on hardware Nintendo has never worked on before, with tools Nintendo doesn't use?

And when exactly did I say they had to fire anyone ?. The hardware guys would be kept on to design and build the handheld consoles and the software guys could be retrained to work with the different CPU architectures. Going on reports they will have to be retrained to use the ARM CPU architecture for the two new consoles anyway.

The idea that they'd be making Wii/DS profits in a couple years is straight-up batshit logic. It showcases a complete lack of understanding of how business works.

Michael Pachter estimates NES and SNES games on iOS/Android to be worth a potential $3 billion per year alone. Add in not taking massive losses from selling home console hardware at a loss, selling games on PS4/XBone and the potential would certainly be there to do just as well financially as they did in the Wii/DS boom.

The fact that you think the company is in danger of going under anytime soon just proves how out of touch you are with this situation.

Again when did I say the company was going under ?. I simply said some Nintendo fans attitude indicates they would rather see them go out of business that sully their good name by going third party and releasing games on a Playstation or Xbox console which at this stage is a much better idea than releasing another underpowered console halfway through this generation...
 
Trust me, Nintendo going third party benefits no one.

I guarantee you that you won't get the same quality of games from Nintendo now as a first party, then you would get if they were a third party. Much like the Sega of old, Nintendo's first party games are this good because they have to be.

Look at how the industry changed when Sega left the console business. We went from an industry that was full of interesting ideas and willing to take chances to yearly sequels and clones. The industry needed Sega as one of the leaders and to help set an example.
 
keep in mind that mario was never more popular than he was just a few years ago, when he was limited to nintendo hardware. metroid has never been a megaseller, and zelda is generally doing about the same it always has. what is it about the skyrim fanbase do you think would interest them in zelda? the focus on puzzles and dungeons? the colorful and cartoony graphics? the linear story?

what t-rated third-party sci-fi shooters have sold in the multiple millions in the last five years?

how many 3d platformers have sold 800,000 units on a sony or microsoft console from 2005-2014 in the us? how many 2d platformers have sold 1 million units on a sony or microsoft console in the same region?

it's hard to say there's a market secretly starved for nintendo games when there isn't any data to back this up.



skyward sword cleared a million in its first npd month. its lifetime worldwide sales are lower than a lot of 3d zeldas, but i think a lot of that has to do with the game launching in 2011 and requiring a peripheral to work. i don't think there were arguments that the zelda series was dead after majora's mask (which performed worse), so i won't buy the arguments that it's dead now.



it's pretty different. there's way more red tape as a third-party. like, nintendo actually owns factories where they make stuff. and they do it on their own schedule. they don't need to have peripherals officially licensed by other first-parties before including them with games. they don't have to worry about sony's restrictions when it comes to premium editions, or what cut first parties want from such games, or microsoft's restrictions when it comes to game manufacturing. they can skirt rules they create for themselves it's good.

a lot of that is all management and marketing too. so that doesn't even get into the game design aspect and the brand new pipeline that would affect every single release. look at it this way- nintendo's a company of 5000 people. they know how to create a console that would accommodate themselves.

i would argue that changing corporate culture as being part of the gaming business isn't very accurate. at the very least, it would definitely hurt the quality of nintendo games considering that for better or for worse, they have been able to keep a certain reputation for the last 30 years. i don't know a whole lot about them, but maybe nihon falcom is the most similar comparison.



first off, the wii u and 3ds are two of the worst nintendo systems out there. expensive, dependent on short battery life, complex, weak, hard for third-parties to make games for, and in the 3ds's case, difficult even for independent developers to get on board with. it's just everything that could possibly be bad about a games console all rolled into one.

now while i personally find a lot of value in backwards compatibility, it's something consumers don't really care about unfortunately. so their next systems wouldn't reference the 3ds or wii u at all. i mean, it didn't seem to help much when they also played the libraries of nintendo's most successful platforms, so why bring them back? one of the issues with the wii u's architecture is that it was made to also have a wii inside of it. in the 3ds's case, a successor handheld would be bound to the 3d visuals, 3ds clamshell design, or the 2ds shape. instead, both successors to the wii u and the 3ds should be fresh starts to save on cost and remove restrictions from the hardware r&d team.

the next thing, they're already doing, and that's making both platforms easy to develop for together. this means it's a lot easier to share assets and get games out the door. teams that move from the handheld division to the console division and vice versa won't have to speak in different languages. it reduces time, cost, and hopefully manpower. not that they should fire people- but maybe it allows for one more game to be made from the people not forced to work on other projects (the 3-man a link between worlds team was split up in 2010 to work on nintendoland and new super mario bros. u).

so that's the start.

when they're making hardware and software, the marketing team needs to be in on the production meetings. everyone needs to know what the product is, who the audience is, and what message needs to get across. the 3ds and wii u especially suffered from low-key and bizarre marketing decisions. in the wii u's case, after a year and a half of not communicating what the system was, they showed a bunch of people playing a mario game in colored squares and then advertised only two games on television for the next twelve months (lego city undercover and pikmin 3).

if they're going target families, that means everyone needs to be on board and consider what that means for the direction of software design, hardware design, pricing, and marketing strategies. they honestly really nailed it with the wii and eventually the ds.

in the meantime, nintendo should be creating a futureproof eshop network. none of this wiiware/wii vc/psn/xbla wont-work-on-future-consoles stuff. one connected account. purchase super mario bros. 3? you have it for both systems. considering that services may be the future of video games, and considering they're behind valve, sony, and microsoft, they need to get on the ball and prepare for that possibility.

and this is while they keep their hardware division busy with stuff to do. i think it's interesting they're looking into other industries. it's hard to say without seeing literally anything just what the hell they mean about their qol talk how it will pan out, but i think at the very least it will let their game system have a more focused identity when they're not trying to go for a frankenstein's monster like the wii u and 3ds were.



because they're failing nintendo platforms. we've seen what those ips do on nintendo platforms that don't fail, and i think the talk of third-party nintendo is a huge knee-jerk reaction to a problem that isn't really there, or simply wishful thinking on the part of people who want nintendo games, but believe they're made in a vacuum and could happen anywhere without consequence.



and i think simple solutions to complex problems aren't realistic.

There's data to backup the fact that there was a market willing to buy far more units of Wii Fit, Mario Galaxy, New Super Mario Bros, DKC:R, etc. than what is currently selling on the Wii U. Now where did some of these gamers go? Some went mobile, some are content with other consoles, some are on PC. I think the best strategy Nintendo has going forward is to release their software and wildly popular IP on all the platforms they can (within reason), because the current market has basically said "ok, I'm content playing on platform X rather than a Wii U or 3DS". Nintendo's games aren't system sellers in their own right, because the value proposition of the entire ecosystem is so much worse than it is on competing platforms for the average consumer.

As for your recommendations, I don't see anything that you suggest that would turn things around. Having easier development between platforms is great for their studio's synergy, but the result for the consumer won't necessarily make their hardware more appealing to any substantial degree. They should be doing this approach with multiplatform development, in my view.

I'm also not of the belief that marketing is a massive problem for Nintendo. The products are. Having a marketing team in on design meetings isn't going to make a product more appealing. The Wii wasn't the success it was primarily due to marketing. Sure, having solid marketing helped, but the main catalyst for the sales were the product itself. Wii had a revolutionary controller and massive killer apps in the form of Wii Sports and Wii Fit for an expanded audience. The device practically sold itself due to word of mouth. That audience has now since moved on to other platforms, or simply wasn't engaged long-term by the prospect of motion controls. It's the same situation with guitar hero / band games being run into the ground and never to come back.

And yes, Nintendo should obviously create a much better eshop ecosystem that carries across multiple platforms, but that's not the reason why the Wii U and 3DS are doing poorly.

Wii U and 3DS are not bad systems by any means, they're just not revolutionary, and they're a reflection of the current situation Nintendo finds itself in -- the Wii and DS were phenomenons of a time that has long since passed, and should be regarded as anomalies in a long-term trend of declining business and marketshare for Nintendo (especially for their consoles). We've known this since the SNES -> N64 -> GC transitions, and Wii U is just following that trend. So unless Nintendo has the capability of striking lighting twice, their entire business model will be in severe jeopardy until they realize the changing market reality that faces them today.
 
Please don't close this thread. This is probably the closest in Neogaf history, we've had people finally question Nintendo against much resistance.

Because people have been so programmed in recent years to think that a single failure from a company means the company should fold, rather than try to correct itself.
It's more than that. There's this thing called opportunity cost.

That's what worries me the most when you have Nintendo throwing their weight at a failing business hoping they could correct themselves. Instead, that same money (and time. Money can always be replenished. Time is a permanent thing) could be used to better train the company as to make a transition to a better way of marketing video games.
 
There's data to backup the fact that there was a market willing to buy far more units of Wii Fit, Mario Galaxy, New Super Mario Bros, DKC:R, etc. than what is currently selling on the Wii U. Now where did some of these gamers go? Some went mobile, some are content with other consoles, some are on PC. I think the best strategy Nintendo has going forward is to release their software and wildly popular IP on all the platforms they can (within reason), because the current market has basically said "ok, I'm content playing on platform X rather than a Wii U or 3DS". Nintendo's games aren't system sellers in their own right, because the value proposition of the entire ecosystem is so much worse than it is on competing platforms for the average consumer.

this may hold water if there were nintendo games on those systems, or games like nintendo games on those systems that sold in the numbers you're suggesting. but seeing how you can't pull up actual examples, i don't think it's the case. i think the wii userbase was actually on the wii for a while longer than people gave it credit for. they stuck around and bought more disney epic mickey 2 than any other userbase. they purchased 800,000 copies of just dance in december 2013. they're responsible for the only increase in nintendo's forecast for the previous fiscal year (which was software). that userbase didn't wander off like some lost sheep- they were simply no longer being catered to by nintendo and third-parties alike. they were a starved userbase, and there were a lot of them, and the wii u is unappealing to their sensibilities.

As for your recommendations, I don't see anything that you suggest that would turn things around. Having easier development between platforms is great for their studio's synergy, but the result for the consumer won't necessarily make their hardware more appealing to any substantial degree. They should be doing this approach with multiplatform development, in my view.

studio's synergy? where did i ever argue that? these guys already kinda jump around from team to team and help each other out on games whether it's handheld or not. i brought it up specifically because it's a move to reduce costs in multiple ways. most importantly, it does so within their comfort zone, on their terms.

I'm also not of the belief that marketing is a massive problem for Nintendo. The products are. Having a marketing team in on design meetings isn't going to make a product more appealing. The Wii wasn't the success it was primarily due to marketing. Sure, having solid marketing helped, but the main catalyst for the sales were the product itself. Wii had a revolutionary controller and massive killer apps in the form of Wii Sports and Wii Fit for an expanded audience. The device practically sold itself due to word of mouth.

marketing is a massive problem. you tell me what's so appealing about loud music, flashing colors, and a tagline telling you what to do (what you will play next). why is this thing going to improve my life in any way? contrast that with the wii which was was rooted in the real world, had upbeat music, and had an ad slogan that was asking you to invite the idea in (we would like to play). moreover, it showed families playing together, and delivered the concept of the device immediately. the wii remote was a baseball bat, a sword, and a gun (and more). what's the gamepad? a tablet of some sort. maybe an add-on? and who is the audience? and after that first shock and awe of confusion, nintendo went on radio silence, only to promote lego city undercover, and pikmin 3 until their super mario 3d world push last november.

That audience has now since moved on to other platforms, or simply wasn't engaged long-term by the prospect of motion controls.

is that from a study somewhere?

It's the same situation with guitar hero / band games being run into the ground and never to come back.

not really. guitars and other instruments aren't part of almost every single gaming console and handheld as we know them.

And yes, Nintendo should obviously create a much better eshop ecosystem that carries across multiple platforms, but that's not the reason why the Wii U and 3DS are doing poorly.

i never said it was. it's something they should just be doing alongside their current business.

Wii U and 3DS are not bad systems by any means, they're just not revolutionary, and they're a reflection of the current situation Nintendo finds itself in -- the Wii and DS were phenomenons of a time that has long since passed, and should be regarded as anomalies in a long-term trend of declining business and marketshare for Nintendo (especially for their consoles). We've known this since the SNES -> N64 -> GC transitions, and Wii U is just following that trend. So unless Nintendo has the capability of striking lighting twice, their entire business model will be in severe jeopardy until they realize the changing market reality that faces them today.

that's the problem with believing in luck. luck doesn't exist. if someone believes that nintendo got lucky with the wii and ds, then i don't think they understand what actually happened last gen. and if nintendo themselves thought they got lucky, well that may explain their decisions with the wii u and 3ds.

but i'll go ahead and say it. the wii u and the 3ds are bad systems. their gimmicks are completely not in line with what the wii and ds were, and it flies in the face of nintendo's philosophy in hardware development of inexpensive machines with inexpensive software, long battery life, and ease of use. conceptually, they're a mess.

i'll bring up this story again about my professor when he was in college:

in college, my professor had been an artist and an illustrator. he was looking forward to his first real design class. the project for the first week was, 'bring something that describes who you are.'

so he went home and made this elaborate illustration. happy faces because he was a happy guy. he was on a skateboard because he loved to skateboard. lots of stuff that described who he was.

the next week at class, everyone brought their illustrations, except for one person. she was a non-major and was just taking the class as a g.e., and while everyone pinned up their illustrations, she took a push pin and put swimming goggles on the wall.

of course, the future designers knew she was in for it- she didn't even work on the assignment. so the professor went through the pieces. she asked my professor about his, and he told her about it in great detail. she thanked him for explaining the work and moved on.

at the end of the wall, she stopped, looked at the non-major and asked, 'so you're a swimmer?'
'yeah.'
'for the varsity team?'
'yeah.'
'thank you for sharing.'

the 3ds and wii u demand questions. they need to be explained. why is the 3d important to video games? why is the gamepad an improvement? well those answers have to be seen or felt for yourself, or someone has to explain whatever the hell asymmetrical gameplay is. the wii and ds were goggles. you can swing a bat. you can pet a dog. thank you for sharing.
 
Trust me, Nintendo going third party benefits no one.

I guarantee you that you won't get the same quality of games from Nintendo now as a first party, then you would get if they were a third party. Much like the Sega of old, Nintendo's first party games are this good because they have to be.

That doesn't make a lick of sense. As we've already established in this thread, Nintendo would need to sell more software to cover the loss of hardware revenue and the addition of the Sony/MS licensing fee. If anything, their games will need to get better. In fact, I will offer you a complete money-back guarantee that if Nintendo goes 3rd party, every game they release will be a GOTY contender. It's my promise to you.
 
Let's not kid ourselves now. Wii was bought by extremely casual consumers hooked by the waggle gimmick and Wii Sports/Fit, it had very little to do with people wanting to own classic Nintendo franchises. NSMB Wii and MK Wii both sold tremendously well because people needed more games to play once they got bored of Wii Sports, Wii Play and Wii Fit and Mario is still a household name from his success in the 80's and 90's.

And another company providing a large install base for Nintendo to sell their games on is "not grounded in reality" ?. How about Sony, a company that has sold almost 450 million consoles in the past 20 years ?... On top of that PS4 is off to an incredible start outselling WiiU's 16 month Worldwide sales in just 4 months. There is nothing to suggest PS4 won't match PS3's 80+ million hardware sales, infact most people seem to think it will be nearer PS1 hardware sales of 105 million.



You have ignored a point in the OP and a point in my post you are replying to. Most third party publishers pay a $15 royalty fee to release a game on a Sony or MS console. Nintendo games would be so valuable to both companies as an extra hook that there could easily be a deal in place which see's Nintendo not having to pay the royalty fee at all or a significantly reduced amount in exchange for Nintendo not releasing their games on Sony or MS's rival console.

Game & Wario, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Sonic Lost World, Wind Waker HD, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U and DKC Tropical Freeze have all absolutely bombed at retail on WiiU. They wouldn't be losing out on money by selling twenty or even thirty times the number of copies of their own first party games that the much larger PS4/XBone install base allows. And please don't parrot the same idiotic statements some people make to justify Nintendo staying on their own console like "the PS/XB dude bro gamers don't want Mario and Zelda", it's an extremely stupid generalisation.

People act like WiiU is still selling like Wii and that by giving up home console hardware Nintendo would be losing billions. Currently they would go from losing money on every system sold to not losing anything.

Let's not forget, 18 months after launch, WiiU is still being sold at a loss at $299 with Mr Iwata recently saying they could not afford to drop the price yet again.



We need to stop looking at the past and instead look at what's happening right now. Sony are killing it with PS4 marketing both hardware and software, they have sold 7 million consoles in just six months, the numbers speak for themselves. All the while Nintendo have billions of dollars worth of unsold WiiU stock sitting around in factories and stores across the globe with the console struggling to hit the 5 million sales mark after 18 months on the market.



Yet PS3 still managed to sell over 80 million units. I also never said "good hardware", I said powerful hardware to make it as easy as possible for third party developers to create games for.



Again the Wii was a fluke, the right gimmick, at the right time, at the right price. Look at Nintendo home console sales, ignore the Wii and it's been on a downward spiral since the early 90's. Basing your entire business strategy on catching "lightning in a bottle" again is extremely foolish.



I was obviously talking about home consoles, PS4 could be 5x as powerful as it is and it would still be considered "weak" or "old" next to cutting edge PC standards which now offer 5GHz CPU's, 12TFLOP GPU's and 32GB's of RAM if you're willing to spend the cash.



And when exactly did I say they had to fire anyone ?. The hardware guys would be kept on to design and build the handheld consoles and the software guys could be retrained to work with the different CPU architectures. Going on reports they will have to be retrained to use the ARM CPU architecture for the two new consoles anyway.



Michael Pachter estimates NES and SNES games on iOS/Android to be worth a potential $3 billion per year alone. Add in not taking massive losses from selling home console hardware at a loss, selling games on PS4/XBone and the potential would certainly be there to do just as well financially as they did in the Wii/DS boom.



Again when did I say the company was going under ?. I simply said some Nintendo fans attitude indicates they would rather see them go out of business that sully their good name by going third party and releasing games on a Playstation or Xbox console which at this stage is a much better idea than releasing another underpowered console halfway through this generation...

Wait... Go third party AND have a handheld still? Lol. In what world does that make a single lick of sense? You'd be burying your own handheld designers and teams. And to top it off have a magic licensing deal that lasts forever with other hardware makers? C'mon man... Be realistic. Let's see some numbers.
 
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