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[TasTokyo]

Are you just counting North American box office then? Cloud Atlas broke even if you're counting worldwide BO. In any case, I wouldn't describe that as a clear flop. (Especially with piecemeal funding and home video.) More like a flatline. Same with Ninja Assassin.

Speed Racer was a definite flop.

The film studios don't get 100% of the box office. Cinemas take a cut etc. It varies on movie, how long since release, country etc. However when all is said and done generally saying around 50% is a rough estimate. Looking at Cloud Atlas it seems the budget was 102m and it took in 130m worldwide.

Usually the budget is just production not marketing. However even if that was production + marketing it would still be a budget of 102m for a return of 65m. Definitely a flop. Likely broke even eventually with dvds, tv etc.

For me I think most likely Jupiter Ascending. It just seems like a tricky one to market.

I don't think GotG will bomb however I'm a little concerned it will underperform. Hopefully that's not the case. However it's definitely a different tone of superhero movie.

 

[kswiston]

To be fair, most of the funding for CA came from various film funds in Europe in the form of grants etc. So that might take CA out of the flop territory.

Maybe someone in that situation made money, but it wasn't Warner Bros on the domestic front, and probably not too many of the foreign distributors either. Uwe Boll made money on all his films, despite them making next to nothing at the box office, due to various film grants and tax loopholes. I don't think that qualifies them as successful though.

Are you just counting North American box office then? Cloud Atlas broke even if you're counting worldwide BO. In any case, I wouldn't describe that as a clear flop. (Especially with piecemeal funding and home video.) More like a flatline. Same with Ninja Assassin.

Speed Racer was a definite flop.

Worldwide gross > Production budget does not mean that a film has made money. Studios only get back 35-40% of the worldwide gross (and about 50% of the domestic gross). If a film cost $100M, it needs to make roughly $250-300M to break even in cinemas.

In the case of Cloud Atlas they probably only saw maybe half of that, considering how most of it was made outside of the US. It's a clear flop.

In Cloud Atlas' case, $27M of its gross came from China, which only gives studios a 25% share.

 

[Discotheque]

is it even fair to attribute them to shit like ninja assassin and v or vendetta? they just produced it, no?

anyways they're like film suda51 for me. i'll watch anything they make. but it will probably be weird as hell and not objectively good. but i'll find something to like in it. and somehow even though it flops they'll land another project.

 

[cacildo]

Everybody have great things to say about Edge of Tomorrow. But they also had great things to say about Elysium, which I found terrible.

Anyway, Jupiter Ascending will be the one to bomb the most. Both JA and EoT are syfy movies that are not part of an established franchise. But Edge has Tom Cruise, which means it will do better ate foreign markets

( I mean, I'm foreign market and if I go out in the street right now and start to give 10$ to any person that can answer me who is Channing Tatum I'll go back home without spending a single dime)

 

[Diprosalic]

OP gonna eat some crow

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=maleficient.htm

 

[alfredofroylan]

OP gonna eat some crow

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=maleficient.htm

This thread'll turn into an ocean of tears if Guardians of the Galaxy ended up being the biggest bomb.

 

[Diprosalic]

Everybody have great things to say about Edge of Tomorrow. But they also had great things to say about Elysium, which I found terrible.

EoT is 95% on RT while Elysium is 68%

This thread'll turn into an ocean of tears if Guardians of the Galaxy ended up being the biggest bomb.

and i will join them in the sun.

 

[Phoenix]

It's been 11 years since Matrix Reloaded and 15 years Matrix. After those two films, have the Wachowskis made a single financially successful movie since? I can't think of a single one.

After doing some research it appears that V is for Vendetta is the one profitable one.

 

[duckroll]

EoT is 95% on RT while Elysium is 68%

Not a great comparison though, since EoT only has 41 reviews so far and it's even open yet.

 

[NetMapel]

I think Ninja Turtles might be a nice surprise. They just need to show some better commercials that's less "dark and serious" and more "whimsical fun" that the turtles represent. Kids will like it and adult turtle fans should enjoy it as well.

I also predict that Guardians of the Galaxy will do very well. The trailers so far have always been well received by the movie audience. A lot of people will go watch this movie because the trailer looks very fun.

 

[Deleted member 18827]

Surprised people are saying GOTG. Its gonna be huge.

 

[AmuroChan]

Not a great comparison though, since EoT only has 41 reviews so far and it's even open yet.

It's got 50 reviews now, which is a pretty big sample size. When it's all said and done I don't think it's going to deviate all that much from where it's at now. And it opened in several EU countries this past weekend.

 

[FairyD]

This thread'll turn into an ocean of tears if Guardians of the Galaxy ended up being the biggest bomb.

I will personally watch this movie a dozen times just to make sure it doesn't bomb.

 

[Hari Seldon]

Maleficent was packed last night. Also lots of soccer moms on my Facebook endorsing it. No bomba. Sorry, OP.

Yeah there is no way this is bombing.

 

[FoneBone]

Despite the popularity of Mila and Channing, I don't see Jupiter Ascending doing well at all. Not to mention the Wachowskis have gone downhill since The Matrix.

I agree. It doesn't look to have anything we haven't seen in other CG-heavy blockbusters, plus the marketing isn't representing the premise very coherently at all.

 

[The Broken Ska Record]

Surprised people are saying GOTG. Its gonna be huge.

Eh... Let's temper our expectation here. I hope it does well, but it's not going to be big.

 

[inm8num2]

GOTG will probably do something in the $150m - $175m range.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Jupiter Ascending will surely be the biggest bomb, no?

 

[Blader]

I think Guardians will open stronger than the first Thor and Captain America, but less than their sequels.

 

[VeryGooster]

I think GOTG will do respectable numbers. Marvel has been doing a decent job building interest.

Jupiter Ascending seems like it has bomb all over it. Hell, I didn't even know it was a summer release.

 

[muse41]

A Million Ways to Die in the West is DOA

Dead on Arrival

 

[Macmanus]

I haven't even heard of the Tom Cruise movie until this thread. Reading the plot it's pretty much Sci-Fi video game.

 

[……forgetit]

OP gonna eat some crow

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=maleficient.htm

He, I changed it to Jupiter Ascending a few pages back, though since it's no where near a flop, crow I shall eat.

 

[Sapiens]

Galaxy guardians. That current trailer is terrible and john c Reilly won't be able to carry it.

 

[ymmv]

Edge of Tomorrow and Jupiter Ascending. Easy calls.

Anyone saying Guardians of the Galaxy apparently hasn't been following movies for the last half decade.

I think Edge of Tomorrow could become the surprise hit of the summer. It's an excellent high concept action movie with a lot of dark humor. Groundhog Day meets Starship Troopers and it absolutely works. The reviews are great and word of mouth should do the rest. Personally, I think it was the best movie I saw this year in fact. (It premiered in most European countries last week)

I think Johnny Depp's Transcendence is going to bomb like Hiroshima and Nagasaki put together.

 

[alfredofroylan]

I think Edge of Tomorrow could become the surprise hit of the summer. It's an excellent high concept action movie with a lot of dark humor. Groundhog Day meets Starship Troopers and it absolutely works. Best movie I saw this year in fact. (It premiered in most European countries last week)

I think Johnny Depp's Transcendence is going to bomb like Hiroshima and Nagasaki put together.

I've been trying to get people interested in Edge of Tomorrow, but that movie has a big problem: Tom Cruise

 

[Vengrim]

I'm biased since I'm really looking forward to it but I just don't see Guardians bombing. It's not opening against any real competition and even the week before is relatively weak.

I'm putting my money on any of the 3 movies from the July 18th weekend. Sex Tape, Planes: Fire & Rescue or Jupiter Ascending. They all seem like they have the potential to bomb. Also, they all have 3 drastically different target audiences which diminishes the potential for any of them to succeed.

 

[ymmv]

I've been trying to get people interested in Edge of Tomorrow, but that movie has a big problem: Tom Cruise

Which is nonsense. Whatever you think of Cruise's involvement in the Church of Scientology, the guy hasn't made a bad movie in years. Rock solid streak of good movies. Edge of Tomorrow is actually one of the best movies he made in the past years. Absolute crowd pleaser.

Everyone who thinks Guardians of the Galaxy will bomb, you're crazy. It's one of the few blockbusters I'm actually looking forward too. Nope, I'm putting my chips on Johnny Depp's Transcendence which no one seems to know about (probably because the trailer is so awful you want to forget ever having seen it). Jupiter Ascending looks doomed too.

 

[alfredofroylan]

Which is nonsense. Whatever you think of Cruise's involvement in the Church of Scientology, the guy hasn't made a bad movie in years. Rock solid streak of good movies. Edge of Tomorrow is actually one of the best movies he made in the past years. Absolute crowd pleaser.

It's not me, every single person at work has refused to go next saturday because of Tom Cruise, probably I'll ended up going alone at the teather, yes the movie is getting amazing reviews and the feedback in GAF is great but general audiences don't care, they just know that Tom Cruise is a weird dude doing weird things with Oprah.

 

[Timeaisis]

Surprised people are saying GOTG. Its gonna be huge.

Based on what? The Marvel brand alone?

I think it'll do well, but I hardly think it'll be "huge".

 

[super-heated plasma]

I want to like GOTG, but here's my problem....

It's a FUCKING RACOON! I just can't take it seriously, at all. I know its a comedy of sorts, but its also supposed to fit in the same universe as Captain America: TWS and Iron Man. Am I the only one having a really hard time picturing RDJ's Tony Stark talking to a raccoon, without it be eyeball roll inducing?

I mean, it's a RACOON. I'm picturing Rocket sitting around the table on the Helicarrier with the Avengers, and man does it seem dumb. Oh well, still hope the movie is fun, regardless.

 

[TEJ]

I want to like GOTG, but here's my problem....

It's a FUCKING RACOON! I just can't take it seriously, at all. I know its a comedy of sorts, but its also supposed to fit in the same universe as Captain America: TWS and Iron Man. Am I the only one having a really hard time picturing RDJ's Tony Stark talking to a raccoon, without it be eyeball roll inducing?

I mean, it's a RACOON. I'm picturing Rocket sitting around the table on the Helicarrier with the Avengers, and man does it seem dumb. Oh well, still hope the movie is fun, regardless.

You have no problem with a giant green monster who gets stronger when he gets angrier because of radioactivity pseudo science

a dude who became really athlethic when given a serum and survived a jillion years being frozen,

a demigod who can shoot lightning out his arse, can propel himself in the air with a hammer.

a talking tree

a dude who can make himself really tiny

a person who can use telepathy, a dude who runs at superspeeds

and a dude who created a metal suit with enough weaponry to decimate a small country

but a talking raccoon is too much for you?

 

[Jimmyfenix]

What about Hercules

 

[alfredofroylan]

What about Hercules

I.... actually forgot about that movie.

 

[Mortimer Brewster]

What about Hercules

Movies starring the Rock have a knack for making gobs of money and being very profitable, no matter the quality.

 

[super-heated plasma]

You have no problem with a giant green monster who gets stronger when he gets angrier because of radioactivity pseudo science

a dude who became really athlethic when given a serum and survived a jillion years being frozen,

a demigod who can shoot lightning out his arse, can propel himself in the air with a hammer.

a talking tree

a dude who can make himself really tiny

a person who can use telepathy, a dude who runs at superspeeds

and a dude who created a metal suit with enough weaponry to decimate a small country

but a talking raccoon is too much for you?

Yes, because at least the other characters are human enough to be relatable. I would rather it be a small alien than a racoon, because now it seems it's steering into The Zookeeper and Doctor Doolittle territory of funny talking animals.

 

[TEJ]

Yes, because at least the other characters are human enough to be relatable. I would rather it be a small alien than a racoon, because now it seems it's steering into The Zookeeper and Doctor Doolittle territory of funny talking animals.

i'm pretty sure rocket won't be comic relief.

 

[Beyonce Beytwice]

Edge of Tomorrow. One of the most clichéd movies ever made. Though Emily Blunt's personal trainer deserves all the awards.

 

[Valhelm]

Earth to Echo will be the goddamn Tsar Bomba.

 

[Zero315]

Nope, I'm putting my chips on Johnny Depp's Transcendence which no one seems to know about (probably because the trailer is so awful you want to forget ever having seen it).

It did bomb, but it wasn't a summer movie. It came out back in April.

 

[AmuroChan]

It's not me, every single person at work has refused to go next saturday because of Tom Cruise, probably I'll ended up going alone at the teather, yes the movie is getting amazing reviews and the feedback in GAF is great but general audiences don't care, they just know that Tom Cruise is a weird dude doing weird things with Oprah.

Wasn't a problem at my work place. A bunch of us are going to see it after work on Friday. I don't think the general audience are as averse to Cruise as you make it out to be. Oblivion and Jack Reacher, two non-sequels that didn't get a ton of marketing or great reviews, still grossed over $200m worldwide. Ghost Protocol was the highest grossing MI in the franchise. There are plenty of Hollywood actors who in their personal lives are pretty eccentric or have done some crazy things. Robert Downey Jr. was a bipolar drug-addict with multiple arrests and rehab stints in the 90's and had a career that most believed was ruined. Now he's one of the biggest, most bankable leading man in the business. At the end of the day, most people just care whether the movie is good and entertaining. If it is, people will go watch it.

 

[brian577]

i'm pretty sure rocket won't be comic relief.

Not even close.

I’ve done a lot of studying with real raccoons and we had real raccoons come in. We’ve done photography with them, I’ve played with raccoons, and fed raccoons, and dealt a lot with real raccoons to get some of the behavior down, because it’s really, really important to me that Rocket Raccoon, who is the heart of the movie, is not a cartoon character, it’s not Bugs Bunny in the middle of The Avengers, it’s a real, little, somewhat mangled beast that’s alone. There’s no one else in the universe quite like him, he’s been created by these guys to be a mean-ass fighting machine.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Am I the only one having a really hard time picturing RDJ's Tony Stark talking to a raccoon, without it be eyeball roll inducing?.

More than ANYONE on the Avengers, I can see Tony Stark talking shit to the Raccoon and the Raccoon throwing it right back at him.

edit: And of course Rocket's going to be comic relief of some sort. That's his character. He probably won't be funny ALL the time, but he's not going to be anything close to a straight man, either.

 

[AlexMogil]

Worldwide gross > Production budget does not mean that a film has made money. Studios only get back 35-40% of the worldwide gross (and about 50% of the domestic gross). If a film cost $100M, it needs to make roughly $250-300M to break even in cinemas.

Are we going to use this metric then to measure whether a film is a bomb? If GOTG makes 175 million is it then a bomb?

Should we have a chart at this point?

 

[Jigorath]

I'm thinking GOTG will end up like Pacific Rim. Lots of internet hype but not much outside of that.

 

[kswiston]

Are we going to use this metric then to measure whether a film is a bomb? If GOTG makes 175 million is it then a bomb?

Should we have a chart at this point?

If it makes less than 1.5-2x its budget worldwide, it's a bomb, yes. If GOTG makes 175M worldwide, it will be a colossal failure, up there with Green Lantern.

I'm thinking GOTG will end up like Pacific Rim. Lots of internet hype but not much outside of that.

Pacific Rim made $400M. If it was a little cheaper (say $150M instead of $180-200M), that would have been a good total. Assuming that GOTG costs about the same as all of marvels first in franchise films ($140-150M), a finish of $400M would be perfectly fine.

 

[Mars477]

If Edge of Tomorrow bombs, we're going to deserve the franchise hell we will be stuck in for the next 5 years. Edge of Tomorrow is the kickass, funny original science fiction with an awesome female lead that we need, but not one that we may deserve.

 

[ReturnOfTheRAT]

If Edge of Tomorrow bombs, we're going to deserve the franchise hell we will be stuck in for the next 5 years. Edge of Tomorrow is the kickass, funny original science fiction with an awesome female lead that we need, but not one that we may deserve.

This "The Fault in Our Stars" movie looks like it might run circles around it.

 

[EulaCapra]

Dwayne Johnson's Hercules. ScarJo's Lucy got moved to July 25th to compete with this and Step Up: Stepping It Up Again and I'm pretty sure Lucy's studio was confident they'll quietly sweep for the week.

I have not heard a thing about Hercules or seen a teaser or trailer apart from one production still showing Dwayne with long hair.

 

[Aquamarine]

Dwayne Johnson's Hercules. ScarJo's Lucy got moved to July 25th to compete with this and Step Up: Stepping It Up Again and I'm pretty sure Lucy's studio was confident they'll quietly sweep for the week.

I have not heard a thing about Hercules or seen a teaser or trailer apart from one production still showing Dwayne with long hair.

Oh god you're right...completely forgot about that movie. Yeah, don't have much hope for that one.

Not to mention the other Hercules film that came out this year bombed ($70 million budget, $61.3 million box office)...doesn't bode well for a second go-around.