July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
In terms of relative rankings for the NPD, yes, it's been quite accurate so far.
The only issue is that it tracks pre-orders in the month that they occur, and not on the month that they're actually sold. So, for example "Playstation 4 Destiny Bundle" appears as #23 for June, but NPD won't record those sales until September.
Nah, I believe the mods know mercy when they see a new poster act a little silly.
You best believe you can't make hard statements like that in this thread without a proper source or someone vetting for you. People in here take sales pretty seriously.
Now you know.
ethomaz
Banned
What is your report? What means Xbox?
You need to tell us now because seems like bullshit.
Welfare
Member
Still, you said report. When you say something like that, it implies you know the numbers to some degree of accuracy. If you're going to backpedal now, just one thing. Were you given numbers, or just Xbox 360+Xbox One > Nintendo family/Sony family?
SDCowboy
Member
Well it shouldn't count the sales until september as Amazon doens't take the money until it ships...correct me if I'm wrong.
Bandobacon
Neo Member
Ah so that is how amazon tracks it. Are we expecting like a 400k launch then in september NPD for it then? Cuz it has been above 30 each month since release
ethomaz
Banned
In terms of ranking yet... for now 100% accurate for hardware (the few software I checked are accurate).
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
Early drama. Nice.
Monty Oliver
Banned
Good looking out, had no idea why people were going serious on me.
SDCowboy
Member
Are you implying that you weren't being serious?
Jimmyfenix
Member
You said "According to my report" What does that mean ??
What I want to know is why did you use the word "report"?
Aquamarine
Member
I've seen people banned in the past for stating things like "OUYA - 2K." Even for less than that.
Be very, very careful with any kind of statements about sales unless you actually have sales data.
ALWAYS preface unverified numbers with "I guess" or "I estimate" or "According to a rumour / unconfirmed report."
Dude, all bets are off for September. With the way that bundle is going PS4 could be in 500-600k range.
Chobel
Member
Just what exactly is this report? How reliable is it?
so you're full of shits
I think he was just being silly and used the wrong wording.
FullMetaltech
Member
Id listen to her. The queen has spoken.
Aquamarine
Member
Not that I'm aware of...unless he's quoting something like Chartzzzzz or he works at massive corporations like Sony / Microsoft / Nintendo and has access to their sales estimates / a possible early NPD release.
But I highly---highly---doubt the latter is the case.
Jimmyfenix
Member
I think it will be in 3rd place
Here is my guess at the top 4 games sold
1st TLOU
2nd Watch_dogs
3rd Mario Kart 8
4th Tomodachi Life or Minecraft.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
So i think we can all expect that leaker site not to have any official NPD numbers this time.
Jimmyfenix
Member
RIP in peace.
Seriously, claiming reports without being able to prove it in NPD threads is basically commiting sudoku.
Monty Oliver
Banned
Yeah I was just making a silly post. Like pasically "My prediction/report". Yikes, remind me never to try that ever again. Hopefully people see my last post and don't think two cents of my other post.
Let me help you out with that one.
If you mean according to your anecdotal evidence, guesstimates or nether region, say so. If you are gathering data from an actual source, say so. If you are using a source and don't want to say so - and don't want others to think you do - don't say you have a source/report. Such insider-y claims are looked into so we don't get every Tom, Dick and Sally claiming to be insiders.
For a good example of what is allowed, see Abdiel's Best Buy report. And note he's been verified to actually work there. Otherwise, just post your numbers with the rest of us for what they are: guesses. Hope that helps.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
No
That was incredible but i knew it would get removed.
Just looked at the old article all the charts have been removed. We all knew it was over when somebody posted the link to the site here.
Monty Oliver
Banned
TheRealTalker
Banned
not so much drama this month
PS4 clearly will win it with that 10 million global milestone
PS4 clearly will win it with that 10 million global milestone
So you were just trying to troll? NPD is the one place where GAF is super cereal.
spatenfloot
Member
Maybe it was a book report.
Kabuki Quantum Lover
Member
People have died for less. Sales-Age is ruthless.
---
Though you won't be counted in this month's NPD 'contest', you can still share your predictions. I forgot about this month's :/
Monty Oliver
Banned
Let me help you out with that one.
If you mean according to your anecdotal evidence, guesstimates or nether region, say so. If you are gathering data from an actual source, say so. If you are using a source and don't want to say so - and don't want others to think you do - don't say you have a source/report. Such insider-y claims are looked into so we don't get every Tom, Dick and Sally claiming to be insiders.
For a good example of what is allowed, see Abdiel's Best Buy report. And note he's been verified to actually work there. Otherwise, just post your numbers with the rest of us for what they are: guesses. Hope that helps.
Thanks a lot!
NPD sales are serious business.
Aquamarine
Member
6:30 PM EDT...aka. 4 hours, 20 minutes from now.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
4 hours or so.
lyrick
Member
You can use it as a nice barometer to indirectly solve some comparisons on a sku to sku basis, but you're limited to the pool of people that shop on Amazon.
Looking at the top 100 for 2014 (and limiting it to games released in 2014)
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#2
You can see that #31 The Last of Us Remastered [PS4] sold slightly less that #30 Titanfall [360] and more than #33 Metal Gear Solid V:Ground Zeros [PS4] . That's pretty amazing considering the limited quantity of time that TLoU [PS4] has been on the market.
If you wanted to pretend that Amazon represents a reasonably random distribution of the American sales, you could justify extrapolating that The Last of Us remastered sold somewhere in between MGSV:GS[PS4] and Titanfall [360] on a national level. Of course by doing so you're making a lot of assumptions that may turn out very inaccurate.
Inaccuracies are more common to happen when using a title like #28 Bravely Default in your analysis, as this title ranks higher on Amazon most likely due to a somewhat limited availability in the Brick and mortar retail sector.
Chobel
Member
EDIT: nvm, you've already explained what you mean by report.
Let's hope so. Third place between those AAA games could be a big achievement for a Wii U game. Mario Kart 8 has demostrated to have very strong legs, I hope it can stay on top ten at least till the end of the year. Also simply because it's just a very good and fun game.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Lovely.
With the Gamescom madness, forgot that this is today. Looking forward to it even if it will be a quieter month.
With the Gamescom madness, forgot that this is today. Looking forward to it even if it will be a quieter month.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
The effect of TLOU on hardware will be spread between July's and August's NPD's obviously as it launched so late in July on the 29th. Should give the system a bump no doubt for both months.
Kabuki Quantum Lover
Member
TLOU:R was a pretty late release and it's no Mario Kart.
Monty Oliver
Banned
Of course we won't see the gamescom effect on sales until September NPD.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Dont know if the site is allowed but insiderp has TLOUR selling 1.5M copies in 24 hours. They have been pretty spot on with PS4 hardware numbers.