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[real_slime]

From an outsider perspective (Swedish) I'm actually stunned that there is a possibility that "Yes" could win when so many fundamental questions haven't been hashed through. Currency, EU/NATO membership, just what assets iScotland gets, the question of defense - there's just so much on the line and so few certainties.

I can fully respect if Scots want to go it alone, but aren't these questions that should have been answered before the referendum, rather than after? Wouldn't that help the Scots to make an informed decision? It all just seems so... cavalier to me.

It seems to me like the Yes campaign had initial answers to all of that, which were then refuted by the opposing campaign, UK government and their mouthpieces. They refuse to have a meaningful discussion about what they positions they would start neogotiating from because it doesn't serve their purpose to campaign on the basis of what they would do if they lost.

If a Yes vote wins, then the campaign will be over and there will be nothing to do except prepare for the reality of an independent Scotland and maybe then we'll get some actual dialogue going about how these things will be decided. Until then, the uncertainty is just an element of the campaigning process.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Apart from the time he spent at school in Durham where he spent his first 11 years, apart from the 3 he spent in Australia.

Ah, the "No True Scotsman" fallacy.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Ah, the "No True Scotsman" fallacy.

God I wish I'd said that.

 

[Ikuu]

Not so sure that's true. The people who would listen to the Sun are the same who would be swayed by the Better Together Asda price rise scare stories over the past few days - the old and the vulnerable in society. Whoever takes them will win.

It's funny how neither side tells the entire truth when it comes to this. No makes it seem like price increases and guaranteed, while Yes make it sound like the idea of increases is ludicrous. I'll be glad when this is all over.

 

[kmag]

Ah, the "No True Scotsman" fallacy.

No he can obviously identify as Scottish if he likes, he doesn't, just as he can identify as English which does (I've actually suffered through his autobiography) or Irish via his mother. Someone said he's Scottish because he was born here and was educated here, he spent 4 years at Fettes, one more year than he spent in Adelaide, the rest of the time he was educated in England at Chorister School in Durham, City Law School and Oxford. His educational history is based far more in England than Scotland.

Nevermind: I'm drunk and that was unfair.

 

[Sage00]

Guardian ICM
Yes 54%
No 46%

8 point lead!

 

[QuicheFontaine]

No he can obviously identify as Scottish if he likes, he doesn't, just as he can identify as English which does (I've actually suffered through his autobiography) or Irish via his mother. Someone said he's Scottish because he was born here and was educated here, he spent 4 years at Fettes, one more year than he spent in Adelaide, the rest of the time he was educated in England at Chorister School in Durham, City Law School and Oxford. His educational history is based far more in England than Scotland.

I'm still not sure what your point was though, since none of that appears to be inconsistent with this:

Fair enough as to where Tony Blair spent his childhood - that can have an effect on identity - but he was born in Scotland, attended school in Scotland and his dad was Scottish. I think that's plenty to call him Scottish personally, but I can't answer whether he identifies as Scottish. At a guess, I imagine he considers himself British.

I guess if I'd read TB's autobiography, I'd be trying to use that knowledge whenever the opportunity presented itself. But even if he'd stayed in Adelaide his whole life (and I'd love to see that alternative reality!) I could still call him Scottish, and indeed he would be welcome in iScotland as per the Scottish government's proposed criteria for Scottish Citizens.

 

[AGoodODST]

Guardian ICM
Yes 54%
No 46%

8 point lead!

The tidel wave of media bullshit is about to be turned up to maximum. What will Independence cause next? Global warming? World famine? The ebola outbreak? Find out in tomorrows Daily Mail.

 

[chancellor]

The tidel wave of media bullshit is about to be turned up to maximum. What will Independence cause next? Global warming? World famine? The ebola outbreak? Find out in tomorrows Daily Mail.

Reminds me of this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFfWykH05Gw

That poll does make me sad though

 

[Stinkles]

Weird trivia note: My daughter Isla's birthday is....

September 18th.

 

[abunai]

The tidel wave of media bullshit is about to be turned up to maximum. What will Independence cause next? Global warming? World famine? The ebola outbreak? Find out in tomorrows Daily Mail.

It's been so tiresome already. Can't wait until it's over.

 

[iMax]

Guardian ICM
Yes 54%
No 46%

8 point lead!

A Guardian poll? Won't that be slightly biased though? Regardless, this is crazy close. How do the 'Don't Know' votes factor into the final result?

 

[kmag]

Panel base

Yes 49.4
No 50.6

 

[JonathanEx]

A Guardian poll? Won't that be slightly biased though? Regardless, this is crazy close. How do the 'Don't Know' votes factor into the final result?

Nope. They use proper pollsters, so the paper who commissioned it doesn't impact the poll.

On another hand, newspapers going for all the utterly... well. This.

 

[nelsonroyale]

A Guardian poll? Won't that be slightly biased though? Regardless, this is crazy close. How do the 'Don't Know' votes factor into the final result?

Have you read the Guardian in the last few months? Probably 80% of there articles on Independence have been implicitly or explicitly picking holes in Independence scenarios. The Guardian has always been in with Labour so overall I don't think they are in favour, but they do have a couple of columnists who are, such as Monbiot.

I don't think they will be intentionally biasing their sample. I mean I don't even think the survation poll will be, and that was commissioned by the atrocious Daily Record, a bam's toilet paper.

Yeah, the Daily Telegraph is going in. It is a neocon paper, which never tries to hide its partiality. That is a pretty disinegeous headline. Many people were fighting to defend the lives of their friends and family first and foremost.

 

[kmag]

Have you read the Guardian in the last few months? Probably 80% of there articles on Independence have been implicitly or explicitly picking holes in Independence scenarios. The Guardian has always been in with Labour so overall I don't think they are in favour, but they do have a couple of columnists who are, such as Monbiot.

I don't think they will be intentionally biasing their sample. I mean I don't even think the survation poll will be, and that was commissioned by the atrocious Daily Record, a bam's toilet paper.

Yeah, the Daily Telegraph is going in. It is a neocon paper, which never tries to hide its partiality. That is a pretty disinegeous headline. Many people were fighting to defend the lives of their friends and family first and foremost.

Guardian officially came out for No on Friday. Something about it just being better if Scotland can try to move the rest of the country to the left, federalism etc.

There's only currently one paper in the UK for independence and that's the Sunday Herald. It's amazing with the weight of propaganda it's as close as it is.

 

[iMax]

Have you read the Guardian in the last few months? Probably 80% of there articles on Independence have been implicitly or explicitly picking holes in Independence scenarios. The Guardian has always been in with Labour so overall I don't think they are in favour, but they do have a couple of columnists who are, such as Monbiot.

I don't think they will be intentionally biasing their sample. I mean I don't even think the survation poll will be, and that was commissioned by the atrocious Daily Record, a bam's toilet paper.

Yeah, the Daily Telegraph is going in. It is a neocon paper, which never tries to hide its partiality. That is a pretty disinegeous headline. Many people were fighting to defend the lives of their friends and family first and foremost.

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I didn't mean 'biased' to the yes vote. I just wasn't sure if they were using independent polling, which...

Nope. They use proper pollsters, so the paper who commissioned it doesn't impact the poll.

On another hand, newspapers going for all the utterly... well. This.

...I now know

 

[JonathanEx]

There's some chatter the Scottish Sun may go yes after Murdoch being up there today.

I presume it's more about how he wants to go on the winning side and right now it's either way so it's an option.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Nope. They use proper pollsters, so the paper who commissioned it doesn't impact the poll.

On another hand, newspapers going for all the utterly... well. This.

Ugh, I think invoking dead soldiers is a bit distasteful. Can't we retain a tiny bit of class?

Anyway, since we're all polling on this page I may as well include one from today that I don't think has been mentioned yet: The Opinium poll for the Observer
YES is on 45%, NO is on 49%, 6% say don’t know
Excluding don’t knows that works out at YES 47%, NO 53%

 

[nelsonroyale]

Sorry if I wasn't clear, I didn't mean 'biased' to the yes vote. I just wasn't sure if they were using independent polling, which...



...I now know

Okay, cool

 

[ghst]

some german bank thinks scotland will be proper gash if they go through with it: http://research.comms.db.com/docs/fxblog_scot12sep14.pdf

though i'd question the ironclad neutrality of a large financial corporation.

poll roundup:

ICM: 54Y 46N
opinium: 45Y 49N
survation: 46Y 54N

bookies are still favouring the no vote by a wide margin (2/9N 3/1Y), citing factors such as the "shy tory" syndrome.

 

[Wrestlemania]

 

[EdibleExplosives]

Nope. They use proper pollsters, so the paper who commissioned it doesn't impact the poll.

On another hand, newspapers going for all the utterly... well. This.

Well, that's fucking disgusting.

 

[CyclopsRock]

There's some chatter the Scottish Sun may go yes after Murdoch being up there today.

I presume it's more about how he wants to go on the winning side and right now it's either way so it's an option.

It's more about the lower corp tax from what I understand.

Also, re Deutsche, they really don't have much incentive to give their clients duff advice. You may think their analysis is wrong, but I think it's into the realms of paranoia to think that their analysis given is actually the opposite of what they really believe.

 

[Hasney]

It's more about the lower corp tax from what I understand.

Also, re Deutsche, they really don't have much incentive to give their clients duff advice. You may think their analysis is wrong, but I think it's into the realms of paranoia to think that their analysis given is actually the opposite of what they really believe.

Yup, Deutsche will also have to give safe advice, unless there could be a big payoff for the risk. They'll change their tune if Scotland is stable for a year after independence is fully done and dusted, because I'm sure some Scottish companies will have taken a battering with the uncertainty and that stock will rise in a stable Scotland.

 

[Wrestlemania]

http://www.scotsman.com/business/senior-bankers-dismiss-deutsch-bank-chief-s-claim-1-3540854

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: Senior bankers have dismissed claims that independence could trigger a great depression as “preposterous” and “disingenuous”.

Ian Blackford, who formerly ran Deutsche Bank’s operations in Scotland and the Netherlands, and Edward McDowell, a former risk manager for Lloyds Banking Group, have played down the warnings of their former employers of the risks of independence.

Senior figures in the National Union of Students (NUS) have also declared for Yes amid “pathetic threats” from the banking and oil executives.

 

[Valhelm]

Well, that's fucking disgusting.

They're quoting members of the military. The Telegraph is certainly pushing a pro-UK agenda, but it's more than just the exploitation of the military.

 

[EdibleExplosives]

They're quoting members of the military. The Telegraph is certainly pushing a pro-UK agenda, but it's more than just the exploitation of the military.

I know that, I saw the full article online. The quote itself is disgusting, as is running it as a headline.

 

[Yen]

That Telegraph front page is shocking.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

http://www.scotsman.com/business/senior-bankers-dismiss-deutsch-bank-chief-s-claim-1-3540854

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: Senior bankers have dismissed claims that independence could trigger a great depression as “preposterous” and “disingenuous”.

Ian Blackford, who formerly ran Deutsche Bank’s operations in Scotland and the Netherlands, and Edward McDowell, a former risk manager for Lloyds Banking Group, have played down the warnings of their former employers of the risks of independence.

Senior figures in the National Union of Students (NUS) have also declared for Yes amid “pathetic threats” from the banking and oil executives.

Ex-SNP Treasurer Ian Blackford, eh? I'm sure he knows what he's...

The Scottish National Party has suspended its treasurer, Iain Blackford, who is threatening to sue party leader Alex Salmond for defamation.

[...]

Mr Blackford said Mr Salmond accused him of incompetence in his stewardship of the party's finances, of overspending at the Scottish election and of destabilising the party by leaks to the media.

Last month, the SNP was reported to be £400,000 in debt and its headquarters in Edinburgh are for sale.

But he said that if Mr Salmond apologised unreservedly, the matter would be closed.

However, SNP sources said the treasurer had lost the confidence of an overwhelming majority of the executive and talk of an apology was "nonsensical".

Oh

Edit:

Also disappointing to see these two chaps being referred to (at least on the Scotsman and Skynews) as "Senior bankers" when it's clear that neither of them are actually bankers at all.

 

[Kinky John]

That Telegraph front page is shocking.

Dannatt is one of Cameron's bum-chums.

 

[mrklaw]

I like how businesses are saying they'll just come south of the border. As if that is going to be easy as pie.

Of course it is. Businesses move location all the time for financial reasons. And Scotland will take months to become independent. In the mean time all companies will be registered under UK law so can move where the hell they like.

Course, a sensible company would wait and see what Scotland's proposed corporation tax structure is before deciding..

 

[Valhelm]

I know that, I saw the full article online. The quote itself is disgusting, as is running it as a headline.

While the politicization of that quote is quite horrible, I don't think there's anything wrong with the sentiment itself. Veterans of the US civil war would be horrified to see Texas leave the nation without conflict.

 

[Acorn]

It's more about the lower corp tax from what I understand.

Also, re Deutsche, they really don't have much incentive to give their clients duff advice. You may think their analysis is wrong, but I think it's into the realms of paranoia to think that their analysis given is actually the opposite of what they really believe.

That and revenge for leveson.

 

[Acorn]

While the politicization of that quote is quite horrible, I don't think there's anything wrong with the sentiment itself. Veterans of the US civil war would be horrified to see Texas leave the nation without conflict.

Except we never had a civil war and being in the army does not equal unionist.

I assume by preserve the union they mean ww2, still doesn't make sense because the conflict wasn't about 'breaking the union up'. So yeah....bullshit.

 

[EdibleExplosives]

While the politicization of that quote is quite horrible, I don't think there's anything wrong with the sentiment itself. Veterans of the US civil war would be horrified to see Texas leave the nation without conflict.

You can't really relate that to the current situation at all. The sentiment is awful and a pathetically bad attempt at guilt tripping.

 

[Valhelm]

Except we never had a civil war and being in the army does not equal unionist.

I assume by preserve the union they mean ww2, still doesn't make sense because the conflict wasn't about 'breaking the union up'. So yeah....bullshit.

I was under the impression that he was referring to the troubles of Northern Ireland, but there's no way to know, and I'm far from an expert on that matter.

 

[DSKMan]

What would happen if yes does manage to win and parliament decides to ignore it, which is in there right as referendums like this are nonbinding in the U.K. Remember under UK law parliament is supreme above all others.

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

I'm pro-union and the torygraph can fuck right off.

 

[real_slime]

What would happen if yes does manage to win and parliament decides to ignore it, which is in there right as referendums like this are nonbinding in the U.K. Remember under UK law parliament is supreme above all others.

there is the edinburgh agreement which agreed to a peaceful negotiation for transfer of power in the event of a yes vote. of course they took care of such a thing well in advance.

 

[DSKMan]

there is the edinburgh agreement which agreed to a peaceful negotiation for transfer of power in the event of a yes vote. of course they took care of such a thing well in advance.

Parliament is still supreme over all such things I. U.K law. Such agreements are never binding on Parliament.

 

[mulac]

As a Scot living in Australia for the last 4 years and holding Perm Residency here now the prospect of a Yes vote fapping scares me.

Scotland should just get off its high-horse and stick with it because guess what, things are pretty goddamn good right now.

Dear Scotland, please don't f*** this up for the rest of us. Sincerley, Sanity.

 

[real_slime]

As a Scot living in Australia for the last 4 years and holding Perm Residency here now the prospect of a Yes vote fapping scares me.

Scotland should just get off its high-horse and stick with it because guess what, things are pretty goddamn good right now.

Dear Scotland, please don't f*** this up for the rest of us. Sincerley, Sanity.

Have you done any research into what your situation would be in the event of independence? I'm asking cos my girlfriend is German and she was afraid that if Scotland wasn't admitted to the EU right away she'd have to leave Scotland, although a look at what the white paper proposes regarding immigration makes it pretty clear that wouldn't be an issue. Scotland isn't kicking EU citizens out if it doesn't get immediate membership.

I'm also a bit concerned about what it would mean for my capability to leave Scotland in the future, because I've always wanted to make a life for myself out of Scotland. I'm voting yes because I think it's the right thing to do despite that, but the idea of people being brought back here is very sad - although, also, sounds quite crazy on it's face so I'm curious as to what would actually happen. I mean, you have a UK passport. Wouldn't there be a process post-yes that would allow you to retain that so you could remain where you are? They aren't going to start calling expats across the world back by the plane load because they were born in Scotland, surely.

 

[Ashes]

Of course it is. Businesses move location all the time for financial reasons. And Scotland will take months to become independent. In the mean time all companies will be registered under UK law so can move where the hell they like.

Course, a sensible company would wait and see what Scotland's proposed corporation tax structure is before deciding..

Unless you're saying, companies handling millions of pounds aren't sensible, how are you not agreeing with me. Or did you think I mean't moving offices and computers was difficult?

One doesn't move immediately move away from their customers - there's a reason they are there in the first place.

It'll be a cluster fuck.

 

[Rhomega Beta]

Well a famous TV Scot has come to support Scottish independence, and that Scot is...Groundskeeper Willie.

 

[ramuh]

Not really to familiar with UK politics but what would Scotland independence do for the Labour Party? Doesn't Scotland have a lot of Labour voters?

 

[Wrestlemania]

As a Scot living in Australia for the last 4 years and holding Perm Residency here now the prospect of a Yes vote fapping scares me.

Scotland should just get off its high-horse and stick with it because guess what, things are pretty goddamn good right now.

Dear Scotland, please don't f*** this up for the rest of us. Sincerley, Sanity.

Which of the things on that list are you particularly worried about losing in the event of Scottish indepedence? I'm not aware of any plans in the white paper to kill all the Highland cows in an independent Scotland.

 

[Colin.]

Not really to familiar with UK politics but what would Scotland independence do for the Labour Party? Doesn't Scotland have a lot of Labour voters?

We have our own Scottish Labour Party that people could continue to vote for post-independence, if they so choose.

 

[Ashes]

Not really to familiar with UK politics but what would Scotland independence do for the Labour Party? Doesn't Scotland have a lot of Labour voters?

As far as the general election goes, historically it is rare for Scotland to have significant enough influence because elections are rarely that close.

Going with the last election though, without the Scottish labour MPs, the Tories would have a majority and so there would be no need for the coalition that exists now.

Outside election year, Labour stands to lose 40 or so seats so for voting etc, it might be crucial on very close votes.

In short, over the long term, Tories gain (probably not this coming election), Labour lose, but shouldn't matter during actual elections.

 

[ramuh]

We have our own Scottish Labour Party that people could continue to vote for post-independence, if they so choose.

As far as the general election goes, historically it is rare for Scotland to have significant enough influence because elections are rarely that close.

Going with the last election though, without the Scottish labour MPs, the Tories would have a majority and so there would be no need for the coalition that exists now.

Outside election year, Labour stands to lose 40 or so seats so for voting etc, it might be crucial on very close votes.

In short, over the long term, Tories gain (probably not this coming election), Labour lose, but shouldn't matter during actual elections.

Thanks for the insight!