Scottish Independence Referendum |OT| 18 September 2014 [Up: NO wins]

Where do you stand on the issue of Scottish independence?

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If Scotland goes independent I think it would be best for them to move to their own currency. Based on what I've read, I find the benefits of controlling your own currency (being able to deficit spend and have more control of inflation) outweighs the risks.

I heard joining the EU is the most likely option though.
 
Crab said:
Uh, no. That's not how that works, at all. All the they do to produce the second graph is take the undecided voters out of the first. It doesn't make any assumptions about what undecided voters will do, it literally just assumes they don't vote at all.

Watch: NO = 47.7, then 47.7/(100-8.3) = 52.0174%
YES = 44.1, then 44.1/(100-8.3) = 48.092%
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Am I being stupid or does the first pie chart add up to 100.1% ?
 
killer_clank said:
yup:

BxrxCPmIEAAOOkv.jpg
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Gotta love the shitey Sun.
 
Sage00 said:
..what?

I'm comparing it to the last poll, using the figures in the first graph.

Yes +1.7
No +0.1
Don't Know -1.6

Don't use that tone with me. ;)
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Ah, fair enough. Yes, it's true that so far Yes has done a better job of converting undecideds than No. If we fudge a bit, and suppose that the 3 polls for tonight all used the same weighting method, and that weighting method is correct, then the margin of error for the average of the three is 1.8%. That means that if pollsters are right in their approach to the Scottish electorate, the best case scenario for the Yes side is that the real standing right is NO 50.2%, YES 49.8%. If that were the case, then Yes only needs to win 52% of the remaining Undecideds to take the election - that's the best case scenario. Mid-case scenario is that the polls are exactly spot on and the small element of randomness fortuitously cancelled out, in which case Yes needs to win 87% of the remaining Undecideds to take the election. Worst-case scenario is the random error went the other way, in which case Yes have lost regardless of how many Undecideds they convert, and can only win by a mass conversion of No at the last minute.

So, while it's true Yes has been doing the better job, even with that better job, it needs a pinch of luck on its side to win. Odds are definitely leaning more towards No at the moment - assuming, of course, pollsters have made the correct assumptions. However, given they're all independent companies with different methodologies, the fact they've all converged to a single point is promising.
 
popo said:
Am I being stupid or does the first pie chart add up to 100.1% ?
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They often do - each individual figure is rounded to the nearest decimal point, which means when you add them up they can vary up to 0.1% either way around 100%. Doesn't mean anything.
 
nelsonroyale said:
I find it rather bizarre how there are some who bang on about the Yes campaign being nationalistic (as a negative) but then going on about being British as if that is not also inherently nationalistic. British rather than European, British rather than a globalist. It is still a nationalistic identity. It is like those people who are White Scottish or English who claim they have no ethnicity.

Ding-Ding - You realise they have the first past the post system in England as well...a shitty system.
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Yep and I agree its a shitty system. I can understand the reasons why they do it which is to create a strong government (and reduce the chance of a hung parliament).

However, I do wish there was a better way

My point though was against Acorn seemingly being happy that a bloc of Scottish voters go unheard because they dare to have a different opinion than him
 
YouGov claim undecideds are twice as likely to vote yes - but yougov has kind of been all over the place.

Crab said:
They often do - each individual figure is rounded to the nearest decimal point, which means when you add them up they can vary up to 0.1% either way around 100%. Doesn't mean anything.
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ok thx
 
Ding-Ding said:
Yep and I agree its a shitty system. I can understand the reasons why they do it which is to create a strong government (and reduce the chance of a hung parliament).

However, I do wish there was a better way

My point though was against Acorn seemingly being happy that a bloc of Scottish voters go unheard because they dare to have a different opinion than him
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No your point was to try to disprove that the Tories were not very well liked up here ("let's have a laugh") as a sort of gotcha moment.

It failed miserably, in an independent Scotland and currently in devolved parliament they do have their voice heard thanks to not using the broken Fptp system
 
Sage00 said:
Labour don't exist. You're thinking of New Labour.
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Acorn said:
Labour doesn't exist anymore beyond a name.

I'm old labour aka social democratic
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What I mean to say is that Labour have been historically good to Scotland and still command a very large portion of Scottish votes at elections.

The "Better Together" movement is largely a Scottish Labour project but are still struggling to win over even Labour supports in Scotland. This seems to be because of a backlash to the current Tory government (going by some comments here and other places online) - its strange to me that many supporters would rather back this campaign to immediately escape a Tory government that would probably not even be in power at the next election.

8bit said:
Do you see how well Scotland has prospered after a British Labour Government? How they repaired the damage done by years of Conservative rule?

It didn't happen. Why would it happen now?

I've changed, the dinosaur screamed.
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Well, many people suffered from Tory rule in the 1980's and I don't believe anyone was able to be "repaired". How exactly do you repair the complete dismantling of industry within 13 years? When the SNP withdrew support for Labour and allowed Thatcher to take power in 1979, all the working class across Britain suffered. Not just Scotland.
 
Crab said:
Like what? What was supposed to happen? Seriously, in your vision of the world, how did things ideally progress for Scotland between 1997 and 2010?
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I would have liked my MP to represent my constituency instead of repeatedly telling me that issues were a matter for the UK Labour Party to decide. I'd like to have felt that he was on my side instead of feeling he was in a seat he felt entitled to and I should respect his opinion because we're all in this together as part of the UK and not concerned with local issues. An MP should be working for his people, not against them. Once I was happy to campaign for Ian Davidson but he's been remarkably complacent and I don't think he has the interests of Glasgow in mind.
 
Acorn said:
No your point was to try to disprove that the Tories were not very well liked up here ("let's have a laugh") as a sort of gotcha moment.

It failed miserably, in an independent Scotland and currently in devolved parliament they do have their voice heard thanks to not using the broken Fptp system
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Yeah because the system of AR works a treat doesn't it (wonder why they didn't go for PR... Oh yeah, there politicians)
 
8bit said:
I would have liked my MP to represent my constituency instead of repeatedly telling me that issues were a matter for the UK Labour Party to decide. I'd like to have felt that he was on my side instead of feeling he was in a seat he felt entitled to and I should respect his opinion because we're all in this together as part of the UK and not concerned with local issues. An MP should be working for his people, not against them. Once I was happy to campaign for Ian Davidson but he's been remarkably complacent and I don't think he has the interests of Glasgow in mind.
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So, because of your one MP, you've decided that Labour 1997-2010 weren't good enough and therefore you should vote independence? Really? I know this isn't the only reason, but you have to admit you've not really answered my question properly: what would you have ideally sought from Labour with respect to Scotland 1997-2010, and why did they not fulfil it?
 
8bit said:
I would have liked my MP to represent my constituency instead of repeatedly telling me that issues were a matter for the UK Labour Party to decide. I'd like to have felt that he was on my side instead of feeling he was in a seat he felt entitled to and I should respect his opinion because we're all in this together as part of the UK and not concerned with local issues. An MP should be working for his people, not against them. Once I was happy to campaign for Ian Davidson but he's been remarkably complacent and I don't think he has the interests of Glasgow in mind.
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BadHand said:
What I mean to say is that Labour have been historically good to Scotland and still command a very large portion of Scottish votes at elections.

The "Better Together" movement is largely a Scottish Labour project but are still struggling to win over even Labour supports in Scotland. This seems to be because of a backlash to the current Tory government (going by some comments here and other places online) - its strange to me that many supporters would rather back this campaign to immediately escape a Tory government that would probably not even be in power at the next election.



Well, many people suffered from Tory rule in the 1980's and I don't believe anyone was able to be "repaired". How exactly do you repair the complete dismantling of industry within 13 years? When the SNP withdrew support for Labour and allowed Thatcher to take power in 1979, all the working class across Britain suffered. Not just Scotland.
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They only get votes at ge's now to keep the tories out.

Look at the last Scottish election and then the GE. Tactical votes was the name of he game
 
Acorn said:
They only get votes at ge's now to keep the tories out.

Look at the last Scottish election and then the GE. Tactical votes was the name of he game
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Really? The Labour party did pretty well at the Scottish Elections in 2011 as well.

And why did over 400,000 people vote for the Conservative Party in Scotland at the last general election? Was that tactile voting to keep them out as well?

Lets not pretend that Scotland is one giant hive mind of voters synchronizing their tactile votes in telepathic unison to rid the country of the Tory party.
 
BadHand said:
Really? The Labour party did pretty well at the Scottish Elections in 2011 as well.

And why did over 400,000 people vote for the Conservative Party in Scotland at the last general election? Was that tactile voting to keep them out as well?

Lets not pretend that Scotland is one giant hive mind of voters synchronizing their tactile votes in telepathic unison to rid the country of the Tory party.
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Labour did terribly at the Scottish elections, the snp got a majority from a system designed to prevent majorities. Look it up if you don't believe me.

400k voted Tory because their um Tories? What's your point here
 
Acorn said:
Look it up we use the pr mms.

You are again talking shite. Sit down and think before you type bullshit.
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Which is open to manipulation, just like nearly every other voting system out there apart from true PR.

So instead of accusing people of talking shite, i suggest you go and read up on the subject.
 
Dax01 said:
If Scotland goes independent I think it would be best for them to move to their own currency. Based on what I've read, I find the benefits of controlling your own currency (being able to deficit spend and have more of control inflation rate) outweighs the risks.

I heard joining the EU is the most likely option though.
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Yeah I think it would be better under the circumstances as well. Or maybe adopt the Kroner haha.
 
Ding-Ding said:
Which is open to manipulation, just like nearly every other voting system out there apart from true PR.

So instead of accusing people of talking shite, i suggest you go and read up on the subject.
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You just now learned what we use so I won't be taking lectures from your belligerent and ignorant arse.
 
Ding-Ding said:
Which is open to manipulation, just like nearly every other voting system out there apart from true PR.

So instead of accusing people of talking shite, i suggest you go and read up on the subject.
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If we had 'true PR' then people wouldn't be able to choose someone to represent their area locally. Our current system is the perfect mix, allowing people that while also topping up and allowing a proportional parliament for the votes. What's the problem?
 
Crab said:
So, because of your one MP, you've decided that Labour 1997-2010 weren't good enough and therefore you should vote independence? Really? I know this isn't the only reason, but you have to admit you've not really answered my question properly: what would you have ideally sought from Labour with respect to Scotland 1997-2010, and why did they not fulfil it?
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I felt he was symptomatic of a general malaise towards Scotland from Labour during that time. Sure, I'm directing my energies towards a specific person but I felt in the bigger picture was that the party stopped caring about local concerns and that isn't what my expectations of the party were. I hope for a Yes vote, but I hope for a re-energised Scottish Labour. I don't believe a UK Labour party works, it needs to be more focused on regional issues be it Scotland, Wales, Manchester or whoever. My feeling is that local concerns are diluted and unheard in favour of the battle for the heartlands that decide on Westminster issues.
 
8bit said:
I felt he was symptomatic of a general malaise towards Scotland from Labour during that time. Sure, I'm directing my energies towards a specific person but I felt in the bigger picture was that the party stopped caring about local concerns and that isn't what my expectations of the party were. I hope for a Yes vote, but I hope for a re-energised Scottish Labour. I don't believe a UK Labour party works, it needs to be more focused on regional issues be it Scotland, Wales, Manchester or whoever. My feeling is that local concerns are diluted and unheard in favour of the battle for the heartlands that decide on Westminster issues.
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Yes, but this is immensely vague. You're effectively saying "they weren't focused enough on areas I care about", but you've not said a single specific thing you would have changed. You've not named a policy you would have liked to have seen, a specific policy you very much didn't like, or any tangible or specific aspect of Labour as a government and administration. Given your dislike for them is predicated on such a vague and woolly idea, without having laid out a clear idea of what you'd have liked to have seen instead, of course nationalism is an attractive prospect - it's a battle of one vague idea against another, and nationalism is promising everything will be better tomorrow. Nobody can win that fight.
 
to spite the Torries, I want the YES to win.

But there are too many Parti Quebecois observers in Scotland right now, just their presence makes me wish for NO to win.

my disdain for the PQ is greater than my disdain for Conservatives in general.

The PQ pressence alone makes me want a NO win now
 
Sage00 said:
If we had 'true PR' then people wouldn't be able to choose someone to represent their area locally. Our current system is the perfect mix, allowing people that while also topping up and allowing a proportional parliament for the votes. What's the problem?
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That is an issue with PR however AR is still at the mercy of manipulation by politicians

In the end, both systems North & South still heavily favour the top two parties either side of there own border (Englands is worse though as our constituency borders & size are fucked)
 
Crab said:
Yes, but this is immensely vague. You're effectively saying "they weren't focused enough on areas I care about", but you've not said a single specific thing you would have changed. You've not named a policy you would have liked to have seen, a specific policy you very much didn't like, or any tangible or specific aspect of Labour as a government and administration. Given your dislike for them is predicated on such a vague and woolly idea, without having laid out a clear idea of what you'd have liked to have seen instead, of course nationalism is an attractive prospect - it's a battle of one vague idea against another, and nationalism is promising everything will be better tomorrow. Nobody can win that fight.
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The no campaign is relying on "jam tomorrow" as much as Yes.

All these vague new powers that are apparently coming.
 
Acorn said:
Labour did terribly at the Scottish elections, the snp got a majority from a system designed to prevent majorities. Look it up if you don't believe me.

400k voted Tory because their um Tories? What's your point here
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Whats your point?

I'm amazed that how well the YES votes are doing among Scottish Labour voters. The YES vote must even be making gains among some Scottish Tory voters. It's doing well despite the prospect of an upcoming general election. Your points about them all being tactile voters are not accurate.

Maybe slow down a bit and stop spamming the thread with your double posts will help you to digest the information.
 
EdibleExplosives said:
Alex Salmond's face just appeared to me on my toast, I think this may be a sign.
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You're right, His hopes are toast.

I'm expecting a final 54% No to 46% Yes split once the count is done.

I'd prefer 58% No to 42% Yes or better and would have predicted that result before Yes made up the amount of ground that they have, but I'll settle for a slightly lower victory.
 
BadHand said:
Whats your point?

I'm amazed that how well the YES votes are doing among Scottish Labour voters. The YES vote must even be making gains among some Scottish Tory voters. It's doing well despite the prospect of an upcoming general election. Your points about them all being tactile voters are not accurate.

Maybe slow down a bit and stop spamming the thread with your double posts will help you to digest the information.
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My point is right in that post (countering your contention Labour did great in the worst Scottish election result in their history only to then sweep scotland in a GE)If you choose to ignore it that's fine with me.

I'll do as I please.
 
Acorn said:
My point is right in that post (countering your contention Labour did great in the worst Scottish election result in their history only to then sweep scotland in a GE)If you choose to ignore it that's fine with me.

I'll do as I please.
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I didn't say I was going to ignore you, I would like to read your posts but I am having trouble keeping up with them because there are so many on each page.

I didn't say they did "great" at the Scottish elections. They are the opposition party in the Scottish parliament so to say that everyone who votes for Labour in Scotland is a tactile voter cannot be true. I'm not arguing the facts, and is true that they lost seats. But they are still absolutely relevant in Scotland.
 
Osiris said:
You're right, His hopes are toast.

I'm expecting a final 54% No to 46% Yes split once the count is done.

I'd prefer 58% No to 42% Yes or better and would have predicted that result before Yes made up the amount of ground that they have, but I'll settle for a slightly lower victory.
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At the start of August 60/40 to No would have been an entirely sensible prediction, it's been a whirlwind of a month really.

Seeing as we're all throwing predictions out there now, I'll go with a No win of 55/45. The polls are putting it closer than this right now, but past referendums (looking at you Quebec) indicate that No might not make as much noise as Yes but they turn up on the day. Thurs will be exciting though!
 
Crab said:
Yes, but this is immensely vague. You're effectively saying "they weren't focused enough on areas I care about", but you've not said a single specific thing you would have changed. You've not named a policy you would have liked to have seen, a specific policy you very much didn't like, or any tangible or specific aspect of Labour as a government and administration. Given your dislike for them is predicated on such a vague and woolly idea, without having laid out a clear idea of what you'd have liked to have seen instead, of course nationalism is an attractive prospect - it's a battle of one vague idea against another, and nationalism is promising everything will be better tomorrow. Nobody can win that fight.
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All I've ever wanted was to think my views might be represented by my elected member, yet most of my communications with them were form letters when I've raised concerns about things like the BSkyB takeover & NHS reform in the last few years. I was asked to leave the Labour Halls in Glasgow for asking for specific information on the NHS Risk register 2 years ago because it was not a matter for discussion due to interests in chairing the Scottish Affairs Select Committee.

I can't give you specific information on policies, that's not how I feel politics should operate. I apologise if that's not the answer you're hoping for.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
At the start of August 60/40 to No would have been an entirely sensible prediction, it's been a whirlwind of a month really.

Seeing as we're all throwing predictions out there now, I'll go with a No win of 55/45. The polls are putting it closer than this right now, but past referendums (looking at you Quebec) indicate that No might not make as much noise as Yes but they turn up on the day. Thurs will be exciting though!
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what made things blurry for Quebec 95 was that the Question was unclear and blurry so much so that 2 out of the 3 separatist leaders did not have the same notion of what a YES win would actually mean.

At least Scotland has put a clear cut question on the ballot. For that, I respect them for not being dubious with euphemisms like the evil PQ was
 
gutter_trash said:
what made things blurry for Quebec 95 was that the Question was unclear and blurry so much so that 2 out of the 3 separatist leaders did not have the same notion of what a YES win would actually mean.

At least Scotland has put a clear cut question on the ballot. For that, I respect them for not being dubious with euphemisms like the evil PQ was
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Just looked up the PQ question, and you're right:

"Do you agree that Québec should become sovereign, after having made a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership, within the scope of the Bill respecting the future of Québec and of the agreement signed on 12 June 1995?"

You'd better be familiar with those two documents!
 
BadHand said:
I didn't say I was going to ignore you, I would like to read your posts but I am having trouble keeping up with them because there are so many on each page.

I didn't say they did "great" at the Scottish elections. They are the opposition party in the Scottish parliament so to say that everyone who votes for Labour in Scotland is a tactile voter cannot be true. I'm not arguing the facts, and is true that they lost seats. But they are still absolutely relevant in Scotland.
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Fair enough, there is a large degree of tactical voting when it comes to GE's though, snp voters will switch to labour because a) SNP in Westminster is silly B) my enemies enemy is my friend

Of course that isn't every single voter you still have the dwindling number vote labour till I die people.
 
It's amazing how amicable the last few pages have been compared to what was going on earlier. I like this thread again. Awwwww c'mere, No Voters, we all want the same thing, just what's best for the people here. :)

100852392_flag_346456c.jpg
 
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