orthodoxy1095
Banned
GTA has "I only owned a Wii" and "I was waiting for a remaster" going for it as well. There are a lot of factors that can lead to GTA V selling like hotcakes.
Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)
- Thread starter Guevara
- Start date
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
the game that sold 35million already on previous gen console. I highly doubt there are lot of those people. Of course there will be who waited out for inevitable PC version. But I am guessing majority buying it on PS4 and Xbox One will be hardcore gamers double dipping.
Stripper13
Member
I think MCC's performance is going to be very interesting to watch. I'm a gigantic Halo fan (own every game, dlc, all books, figurines and posters in my house etc) and while I think MCC looks really good... I'm not buying an XB1 to play it. I know at least 2 others in the same boat. Anecdotal etc but the vibe I've received so far is - it looks amazing, I'm excites to play it in a couple of years when XB1 is much cheaper.
That said. Our good promotion at Christmas that includes it, and I'm in.
No really, they're fucking terrible. Either he states the obvious, or comes out with predictions that are ridiculous or baffling.
Aquamarine
Member
Well how about you read his predictions that aren't reposted on every major news website?
Like...I don't know...the NPD Predictions thread? We post Pachter's predictions there every month and most of the time everyone ignores them because they're perfectly reasonable.
I'm someone who never bought the original as i knew they would be making it for PS4 too..same with with TLOU and a few other games i skipped out on. I was lucky.
I also have quite a few friends who are in the same boat, so your not incorrect.
On the other hand, i already had an original Xbox and a 360 and went through all the Halo games. I don't see MCC as a reason to get a Xbox One, especially considering how i was really supportive of 343 leaving their mark on the franchise, until the game came out. It just wasn't Halo as i liked it. What they did to cortana was probably was the biggest fuck you i think to long time fans of the franchise. I didn't like their direction at all.
pharmboy044
Member
It's not... Insiderp never is
Well, they did claim the PS4 hit 10 million but no one believed them until Sony announced it at Gamescom.
theprodigy
Member
just because they make predictions that will obviously turn out correct at some point does NOT make them accurate
Just wanted to point out that TLOU could also sell to people that moved from 360 last gen to PS4 this gen, providing a decent number of first-time buyers. Tomb Raider (and GTAV) don't really have that going for them.
EDIT: Holy shit I'm slow... don't leave tabs open, and then reply later.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Right on. Obviously your anecdotes and mine only add up to fairly useless anecdotal data, but the reason I brought it up was because I'm one of those people. I skipped TLOU and GTA under the assumption that they'd get nice remasters pretty soon into the gen. I'm glad I was right.
Are there millions of us? I dunno. But if you add in double-dippers, people who skipped or people who didn't have access to a compatible console, I think you very well might end up with millions.
I would love to play MCC. I really want to replay 2. But I can't justify a new console for that one game. Maybe a lot of other people can...
Hahaha!
Yeh I am getting it again even tho I played it all the way through on my ps3, I know about 7 others getting again as well, I dont know anyone that hasnt played it yet though that is interested in consoles so I cant say how many are getting it for the first time that I know.
SwiftDeath
Member
This thread is crazy long. Impressive almost. Gave up trying to catch up a while ago.
Pachter shouldn't get attacked on twitter for his predictions even if they are a bit out there. From all I've seen of Pachter he seems like a nice guy and the one or two white papers of videogame analysis of his I've read seemed well thought-out and put together. I just don't think he puts much time or effort into these monthly predictions that none of his clientele will pay attention to anyways.
Pachter shouldn't get attacked on twitter for his predictions even if they are a bit out there. From all I've seen of Pachter he seems like a nice guy and the one or two white papers of videogame analysis of his I've read seemed well thought-out and put together. I just don't think he puts much time or effort into these monthly predictions that none of his clientele will pay attention to anyways.
aspiegamer
Member
I think the catalyst (for consoles at least) will be how awful sales appear to be in NPD threads for certain titles despite their being a relative success. For example, we have reports that about 70% of Driveclub sales have been digital (It was some reliable report, at least, I think?). It will look like it completely bombed in the October NPD results which is horrible PR and optics. Same deal in every country that doesn't track digital. You can surely agree that that one talking point alone will cause massive console warring here. I sort of get the vibe that Forza Horizon 2 might pan out the same way though of course I have no scientific evidence.
Sony and Microsoft will eventually feel compelled to release digital data in order to save face. As pre-loading becomes more popular and bonuses are actually starting to be offered for digital pre-orders this will slowly add up for the big publishers, too. Imagine a point where 25-50% of something like a Madden, FIFA or CoD were digital. On just physical units that would look like a catastrophic year-over-year decline--every year--where perhaps total sales could be up. For the same PR reasons the Big Guys will eventually have to play along, too.
Nope. Not reliable.
aspiegamer
Member
That'd be the whole point of giving up the data to NPD. All sides would no longer have to desperately try to parse tiny bits of data from one another. On one hand they don't want to give raw numbers but on the other hand they gain a lot of information from others at the same time. There has to be some kind of tipping point. Big titles will look compromised and the total sales numbers in NPD will look like the industry is declining at an alarming rate. No one wants to see that as the current state of the market.
This formula works in other countries where digital gets tracked. I think the UK and Japan are examples... At least the UK.
B4U please man. Let it go. GTAV is going to sell ridiculously well this fall whether 35 millions copies have been sold or not.
AngryNapkin
Banned
I didn't get GTA V and I had a PS360 combo. I got TLOU because let's face it it's Naughty Dog. I saw the performance issues those systems were having and made the right call to wait (for PC or Console).
We haven't had a modern GTA game in a long time iirc that ran well on any platform, so I'm absolutely giddy at the chance to play what many say is the best GTA the way it's meant to be played.
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
how can you compare gaming consoles to those....
PeregrinSe7en
Member
when is npd?
BlackBuzzard
Banned
Thats your opinion.
SwiftDeath
Member
Thursday, October 16th. PR starts around 6:30PM Eastern time
Who's fault is it that the PS4 is dominating? MS and Nintendo fucked up Royally with both their consoles. MS still has a chance to make up some track but Nintendo is done this gen as far as everyone is concerned.
What has happened this gen is pure capitalism at its finest: Two companies released a product that the public did not like, so they went to the third company instead.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Up to this point, the market seems to have disagreed with you on that.
krypt0nian
Banned
Hahahha no.
Bolts-n-Rays1109
Banned
I honestly doubt it, but I would love to see XB1 win a month one of these days. Don't think that time has come yet, though.
Poimandres
Member
Microsoft gonna bring that November rain.
Oh really? Care to point out those absolute smashing systemsellers released in September capable of blowing past the white ps4 / destiny bundle?
Aquamarine
Member
travisbickle
Member
Everyone went and bought Destiny with an XB1 because the game was free with that console.
Pachter believes which ever is cheapest will sell the most, basic economics.
Bolts-n-Rays1109
Banned
Really? I though PS4 had won every month since launch.
Bolts-n-Rays1109
Banned
Yeah, I know 6 people buying XB1's for MCC. November should be a good month for MS.
Nightengale
Member
Supply constraint was a factor,but a loss is a loss.
I think Gta5 is going to obliterate the compitition. This remaster has been under the wraps for over a year. They will release a long ass trailer revealing all the new features and content and people will go pear-shaped over it.
I fully expect a titanfall situation, where the MCC sales will do very little for the actual installbase numbers because most fans already picked up a bone somewhere along the way.
People want to give MCC a nod because of the nostalgia factor. I think the top-of-mind factor of last gen's biggest game, spit-shined for nextgen greatness has alot more potential to draw in and expand the installbase, especially when there will be a bundle.
GTA 5 will be the top seller for the month, with the ps4 version pulling ahead of the MCC.
Ps4 will see a bigger bump on the back of GTA 5 then xbone will see on the back of MCC.
I have two ban bets riding on this, any takers?
I fully expect a titanfall situation, where the MCC sales will do very little for the actual installbase numbers because most fans already picked up a bone somewhere along the way.
People want to give MCC a nod because of the nostalgia factor. I think the top-of-mind factor of last gen's biggest game, spit-shined for nextgen greatness has alot more potential to draw in and expand the installbase, especially when there will be a bundle.
GTA 5 will be the top seller for the month, with the ps4 version pulling ahead of the MCC.
Ps4 will see a bigger bump on the back of GTA 5 then xbone will see on the back of MCC.
I have two ban bets riding on this, any takers?
many people also held off from buying the last gen version because they knew it would be ported to next gen consoles and pc. its going to do really good.
The only reason I would buy GTA 5 again is if they come out and say online heists are exclusive to x1/ps4. Other than that I don't see a reason to buy it again. Better graphics and a few changes aren't going to make it worth it and I believe a lot of other people will feel the same.
I was trying to wait on a new console at least until whenever the new Battlefront is released, but after the announcement of MCC (all about that Halo 2 MP), GTA V (never finished it on 360, just played online all the time) and the free game with console purchase I jumped in. Haha I'm hilarious. Anyway, got the Madden bundle, Destiny free, sold and traded those in for about $80 total. Plus BB was giving away 2 years of their gamer sub so I now get 20% off new games. Pretty happy overall.
I think if MS plays hard they can be right up there with PS4 this winter. I think the original $500 with Kinect is still hurting them a little.
I think if MS plays hard they can be right up there with PS4 this winter. I think the original $500 with Kinect is still hurting them a little.
The average digital sales ratio is at 10 % on PS4 and slightly higher on Xbox One. PC is over 60 %. There is no way that Driveclub reached anywhere close to 70 % digital. 15 % would be surprising.
Nightengale
Member
Of course, many people will feel the same way you do.
But let's lowball it at 10%. That's 700k sales.
The scale of the behemoth known as GTA is so big that even a conservative 10% of its sales last year at launch would be bigger than most games.
Droopaloop
Banned
Heh while I'm not willing to do a ban bet, as I haven't been around too long as is, I do think the MCC will move consoles. I bought an Xbone last November, and in terms of the people I usually played with there are quite a few wanting to pick one up for Halo.
Halo is a bit unique in terms on nostalgia. I associate Halo 2 and 3 with my college years and all the people I know who are picking it up are in the same boat. As stupid as it sounds, it's going to be somewhat of a reunion for people I haven't talked to for a while, and I can see why that would give somebody some drive to pick one up. Bit of a unique situation, but I wouldn't think the people I know are the only ones.
In regards to sales numbers, at the rate at the PS4 is selling, I'm not certain there is an exclusive that can pull the Xbox ahead for more than a month or two. The majority of people simply don't care for exclusives. They are there for your Cod, BF, EA Sports titles, and the other go to games.
But you have to take into consideration that Driveclub was cheaper as digital (if you had PS+) than it was on physical. That is why I got it as digital, and I can imagine alot of people did the same.
Edit: Atleast in Finland the physical copy is 60-70€ depending on the retailer, and I got it at 39,99€ from digital, which is a pretty significant saving.
Poimandres
Member
Of course sales will rise in November. They always do. No doubt MCC will move some consoles, or be a significant contributing factor to some people buying Xbone's, but what kind of a bump is needed for people to really see it as a system seller?
I think if the Xbone beats the PS4 in November MCC can rightly be seen as a system seller.