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[King Beyond the wall]

Usually it's production that scales to demand and not the other way. There is no point in increase of production if you'll not be able to sell extra stock.


This fact only tells us that PS4 is liquid item (unlike X1 and WiiU) - so there is no problem with precise estimation of demand, and that Sony have enough production capacity to meet the demand. It does not tell us anything about ceiling for PS4 production.
Both manufacturer and retailers want this numbers to be fairly close as holding stock cost money. So it's a good situation if good are sold just as they arrive to retailers, indicates a good logistics/planning.


Lower price = more sales, deeper market penetration, greater momentum.
Let's talk about X1. It is losing it's "de facto console" (or even "equal of many") place and thus constantly struggle to maintain it's sales. This becomes more and more serious as time goes forward and less dedicated gamers join curent gen.
Dropping price of PS4 - will speed up its recognition between more price-sensitive crowd and extend range of populace where PS4 have dominant mindshare. This will be a great help even further down the road.

This is good post, thanks for addressing my points like this.

My assumptions were:
1. That the manufacturing ceiling was effectively in line with the sell in numbers due to the busy holiday period. Like you have said though this may not necessarily be the case, and production capacity may be more than we (or I atleast) expect.

2. If the capacity was there they would have dropped the price already to reach deeper market penetration. Sony have done this in the past to great success so I believed that they would do it again as soon as possible, but we are in month 18/19 (?) now with no price cut. I understand that an argument based on logic, rather than fact, like this is inherently flawed, and do accept that Sony will have other considerations as to precise timing and capacity may already be there to sustain a lower priced console.

Without knowing the manufacturing numbers or ceiling its impossible to gauge the difference between production and sell-in.

 

[Vena]

I think your humor detector is broken... reread the post thinking really hard about a previously announced VR game geared towards a very Japanese audience...

My reply was also a joke...

What the hell is Godot and what does it have to do with fetishistic sense I fantasy VR games and their appeal in Japan?

Godot.

 

[RexNovis]

Japan, the land of tradition.


Japan, the land of weirdos.


Japan, the land of not-knowing Godot.

I assumed he wasn't talking about the artist because that makes zero sense in the context of the reply unless I missed something.

My reply was also a joke...



Godot.

I know of the artist but apparently whatever joke you were making went completely over my head because the reference made no sense to me hence why I assumed it was something other than the artist. Like some sort of tech startup or something.

 

[Burbeting]

[3DS] 270k
[PS4] 315k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 250k

 

[Vena]

I assumed he wasn't talking about the artist because that makes zero sense in the context of the reply unless I missed something.

Artist? Its a joke on the idea of waiting on some "promised unknown" to come around and fix your life for you. In the case of Waiting for Godot, two idiots sat around a tree waiting for a person named Godot to come and turn their lives around.

In this case, I was poking fun of the idea of VR being the "promised savior".

 

[RexNovis]

Artist? Its a joke on the idea of waiting on some "promised unknown" to come around and fix your life for you. In the case of Waiting for Godot, two idiots sat around a tree waiting for a person named Godot to come and turn their lives around.

Oh my god you're right I'm an idiot I was thinking of Klempt for some reason. Ugh it's been a long day. Excuse me while I go bury my head in the sand out of shame.

 

[Vena]

Oh my god you're right I'm an idiot I was thinking of Klempt for some reason. Ugh it's been a long day. Excuse me while I go bury my head in the sand out of shame.

Its ok. Have half a Kirby to make you feel better.

 

[Stampy]

Wow, at the Godot unfamiliarity. These forums miss more traditional classical literature references. It can’t be all games and roses.

 

[slavesnyder]

Artist? Its a joke on the idea of waiting on some "promised unknown" to come around and fix your life for you. In the case of Waiting for Godot, two idiots sat around a tree waiting for a person named Godot to come and turn their lives around.

In this case, I was poking fun of the idea of VR being the "promised savior".

I was only half-joking. I would not yet say that PS4 is dead in Japan. It will never be the blockbuster the PS2 was, sure, but appealing games like Final Fantasy, Persona etc. will give it a nice boost. VR is uncertain, but why not being optimistic for a change. In a land where rooms are too small for kinect, a headset might be welcome to experience freedon and space.
Summer lesson cancelled is a downer (no pun intended).

Wow, at the Godot unfamiliarity. These forums miss more traditional classical literature references. It can’t be all games and roses.

Shut up, Schopenhauer.

 

[GnawtyDog]

People expecting about the same gap as last month between the PS4 and XB1 are surely a surprising bunch.

 

[Vena]

I was only half-joking. I would not yet say that PS4 is dead in Japan. It will never be the blockbuster the PS2 was, sure, but appealing games like Final Fantasy, Persona etc. will give it a nice boost. VR is uncertain, but why not being optimistic for a change. In a land where rooms are too small for kinect, a headset might be welcome to experience freedon and space.
Summer lesson cancelled is a downer (no pun intended).

I'm not being completely serious, mind, but I prefer looking at the market in a more... cynical way. The Japanese console market, especially so.

 

[jryi]

A higher install base does not correlate with higher sales, Uncharted 2 to 3 is one such example.

Well, yes, but here we need to talk about segmenting.

The segment of gamers that like to play games like Uncharted are the same people who don't mind buying a system during its first year for price upwards of $400. Effectively, the install base interested in Uncharted did not grow that much, even though there were more consoles in consumers' hands.

But the people, who like to play games like Singstar or Buzz! do not want to spend a lot on hardware. When you drop the price of console to $250 level, you have a completely different audience, that will buy your boardgame adaptations and party games.

I would bet that Sony has quite a sophisticated model about the lifecycle of their consoles, and that includes everything from hardware prices to game schedules to new console model launches to marketing communications. They try to guesstimate the segment sizes, optimal price points, content preferences, etc. Grab the biggest spenders first, then grow the install base at stages to maximize revenue. And balance this all with costs of sales.

 

[Stilton Disco]

[3DS] 250K
[PS4] 350K
[WIU] 75K
[XB1] 200K

 

[Felessan]

My assumptions were:
1. That the manufacturing ceiling was effectively in line with the sell in numbers due to the busy holiday period. Like you have said though this may not necessarily be the case, and production capacity may be more than we (or I atleast) expect.

You should take a notice here that even if yearly production is about the same as yearly sales, production tends to be much more even between the months (you want to produce the same number every month as it keeps assembly lines utilization and number of workers the same for whole year) and warehousing of produced consoles intended for sale on holidays started many months before holidays. But the number of factory inventory is not directly related to sell-in number and is not known.
And increasing production requires some cooperation from contractor to add some assembly lines and workers and some time in advance to actually put these in place, but it shouldn't be that hard to do. Although a commitment is needed that you really need more factory capacity or it will be underutilized (=some extra cost).

2. If the capacity was there they would have dropped the price already to reach deeper market penetration. Sony have done this in the past to great success so I believed that they would do it again as soon as possible, but we are in month 18/19 (?) now with no price cut. I understand that an argument based on logic, rather than fact, like this is inherently flawed, and do accept that Sony will have other considerations as to precise timing and capacity may already be there to sustain a lower priced console.

Dropping price too fast have it's own consequences - you abandon extra margin you could get at higher price. So it's done in phases - you sell at high price until market saturates or it's time for price drop, then you drop price and sell until next stage comes.
Sony most probably have a schedule of price drops that not even depends too heavily on market saturation. As you need to drop price at reasonable time points to allow wider layers of population to spent their time (and money) on your console before next generation of consoles arrives. And you don't want 2 consoles to compete between each other, so there should be reasonable and established price difference between them.

One indication that Sony think that current price close to saturation is that we see increased number of value proposition deals (bundles). If Sony really were in situation when they sell everything they managed to produce - there are no point in increasing value of console bundles.

 

[Chobel]

So I just checked Amazon hourly charts:
#1 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD - PS4
#9 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD - XB1

OK, what the heck is happening here?

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

So I just checked Amazon hourly charts:
#1 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD - PS4
#9 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD - XB1

OK, what the heck is happening here?

Gold box deal. Folks really need to lay off the hourly Amazon stuff. It can flip at a moments notice because of a sale.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

What's the ETA for the NPD results this week? Today?

 

[Chobel]

Gold box deal. Folks really need to lay off the hourly Amazon stuff. It can flip at a moments notice because of a sale.

Ah OK, thanks!

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

So I just checked Amazon hourly charts:
#1 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD - PS4
#9 Final Fantasy Type-0 HD - XB1

OK, what the heck is happening here?

Gold box deal. Folks really need to lay off the hourly Amazon stuff. It can flip at a moments notice because of a sale.

Yeah, they had it 33% off, so that screwed with the hourly numbers. Monthly is much safer for seeing actual trends.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-04/videogames

(Note: change the year or month in the middle if you want to see other time periods)

 

[ZhugeEX]

What's the ETA for the NPD results this week? Today?

Dude, its like the first paragraph of the first post.

April 16th

 

[Grimgrillz]

I'd really like to get in on this. Will I be breaking the rules by posting my predictions past the date? I just got my account approved today and really love these prediction threads.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

[3DS] 180K
[PS4] 375K
[WIU] 120K
[XB1] 320K

 

[Rymuth]

So Bloodborne sold over a million.

Any impact will this have on some of your predictions (unless the prediction doors are closed)?

 

[jryi]

I'd really like to get in on this. Will I be breaking the rules by posting my predictions past the date?

No, your prediction is just not calculated in the results.

 

[Grimgrillz]

Thanks jryi

[3DS] 200k
[PS4] 535K
[WIU] 76k
[XB1] 277k

 

[Achire]

[3DS] 250K
[PS4] 470K
[WIU] 110K
[XB1] 340K

My first ever prediction. I hope Bloodborne does well, but it's just not going to beat Hardline. Expecting pretty high sales all-around simply due to the 5 week reporting period. Not sure how 3DS sales will progress after last month's introduction of the new model.

 

[Kill3r7]

So Bloodborne sold over a million.

Any impact will this have on some of your predictions (unless the prediction doors are closed)?

Not really as many here already predicted strong sales for it.

 

[vin-buc]

I debated this a few pages back on the side of no need to drop price especially for those saying it'll go down to $299 - i just can't see that drop for how well it's doing. I understand the market penetration, subscriptions, game sales, etc. argument and I agree with it but my disagreement lies with the drop to $299. I think they'll drop to $329 max. I believe the strategy will be high value bundles.

To be fair - i hope i'm wrong and they do drop to $299 as I would love to see the sales outcome between them AND the competition.

 

[jryi]

I debated this a few pages back on the side of no need to drop price especially for those saying it'll go down to $299 - i just can't see that drop for how well it's doing. I understand the market penetration, subscriptions, game sales, etc. argument and I agree with it but my disagreement lies with the drop to $299. I think they'll drop to $329 max. I believe the strategy will be high value bundles.

To be fair - i hope i'm wrong and they do drop to $299 as I would love to see the sales outcome between them AND the competition.

I think Sony will want to make the most of price anchoring. They have had the suggested retail price at 399 for so long, now, that it's what people aware of the console's existence have learned to expect. Psychologically, changing the first number in the price tag has a huge impact. Price elasticity rules work differently, when you jump accross that hunder barrier.

 

[Javin98]

I know this was already posted, but I'll just repeat it. Bloodborne has sold through more than 1 million units in less than 2 weeks. We know that ~180K were sold in Japan, so that leaves roughly ~820K for RoTW. It's very possible that almost half of those sales are from the US, meaning it could have done 400K. I know this is no confirmation, but, Welfare, remember your bet?

 

[RexNovis]

I know this was already posted, but I'll just repeat it. Bloodborne has sold through more than 1 million units in less than 2 weeks. We know that ~180K were sold in Japan, so that leaves roughly ~820K for RoTW. It's very possible that almost half of those sales are from the US, meaning it could have done 400K. I know this is no confirmation, but, Welfare, remember your bet?

Man poor Welfare I hear raw crow is even worse than Natto.

 

[Welfare]

Um.

 

[GifGafIsTheBestGaf]

great posts Felessan



also as a reminder, you have 7 hours and 30 minutes to post your predictions

 

[BlackJace]

[3DS] 265k
[PS4] 310k
[WIU] 88k
[XB1] 255k

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Nowhere to run Welfare...

 

[ZhugeEX]

great posts Felessan

I agree, excellent post above.

Also I think some people are getting confused. I don't think anyone here is saying that Sony will drop the price to $299, they're saying that its likely Sony will drop the price by something.

It could be $100 or could be much less. But its very likely that we'll see a lower point of entry for PS4 this year.

Nowhere to run Welfare...

What was his bet?

 

[Welfare]

What was his bet?

The standard crow.

At least I hope that's what people think.

On another note here's this PDF on video game sales in the US for 2014

 

[Nightengale]

The standard crow.

At least I hope that's what people think.

Wasn't it supposed to be raw?

 

[ethomaz]

The releases part of the OP is really cool... the full OP deserves congrats

I will predict this time only what matters lol

PS4: 410k
Xbone: 275k

I'm revising my prediction (most adding the others platforms):

[3DS] 190k
[PS4] 410k
[WIU] 110k
[XB1] 275k

Bonus round (already predicted weeks ago): 500k > BB > 400k

 

[Welfare]

Wasn't it supposed to be raw?

That's raw.

I'll also try to get this as first post in the results thread if it does indeed do over 300k.

 

[Nightengale]

That's raw.

Was joking.

 

[Welfare]

Was joking.

I know

Just playing along.

 

[FullMetaltech]

That's raw.

I'll also try to get this as first post in the results thread if it does indeed do over 300k.

Hehe. You need a pick of the Bloodborne fat crow. With the saw bone as a utensil.

 

[Elandyll]

Not sure if it's been posted but Amazon is doing a Bonus Trade-in offer for a PS4 purchase, until apparently April 27th for the trade, and June 30th to spend your credit if not used immediately):

Amazon Trade in Promo Offer

The trade in value has a bonus $80 code that'll be applied to your PS4 purchase, for a total discount between $150 and $350 depending on your trade.

Some examples of trades (before the $80 bonus):

PS3 500Gb (super Slim model): $100

PS3 500Gb GTA V Bunlde: $140

XB360 250Gb Holiday bundle: $115

XB1 TF+ Kinect bundle: $275

XB1 ACU Bundle: $175

All the recent deals frankly make me think that Sony is really gearing up for an official price cut either at E3 or Gamesom.
They sure are pushing hard (without touching the official price, notice).

 

[vin-buc]

I agree, excellent post above.

Also I think some people are getting confused. I don't think anyone here is saying that Sony will drop the price to $299, they're saying that its likely Sony will drop the price by something.

It could be $100 or could be much less. But its very likely that we'll see a lower point of entry for PS4 this year.

There are a few posters who are saying/expect that the PS4 they will drop to $299 to expand market penetration, follow historical precedent, and make up with revenue from game sale royalties, subscriptions, etc. My disagreement is with the drop to $299 - i too believe they may drop the price this year but if they do - they won't do it by that much. Depending on the strength of their sales I would expect them to bundle heavily and maintain price and wait until Q1 to drop.

I also think that there are some factors - if Xbox releases revised hardware, if they drop price - that can have an effect on PS4's pricing. These are just guesses of course.

 

[cakely]

The standard crow.

At least I hope that's what people think.

On another note here's this PDF on video game sales in the US for 2014

Honestly, I think NPD Bloodborne sales are going to be right at 300k. It could easily go either way at this point.

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

That's raw.

I'll also try to get this as first post in the results thread if it does indeed do over 300k.

yum yum

 

[QaaQer]

[3DS] 264k
[PS4] 366k
[WIU] 88k
[XB1] 199k

 

[joecanada]

yum yum

you know I just realized that Bloodborne is yet another game that is wayyy too dark on my LCD, anyone recommend a ps4 setting to help?

the crows just look like black blobs

 

[ZhugeEX]

There are a few posters who are saying/expect that the PS4 they will drop to $299 to expand market penetration, follow historical precedent, and make up with revenue from game sale royalties, subscriptions, etc. My disagreement is with the drop to $299 - i too believe they may drop the price this year but if they do - they won't do it by that much. Depending on the strength of their sales I would expect them to bundle heavily and maintain price and wait until Q1 to drop.

Fiscal year or calendar year?