Plasticine
Member
$230 million
Avengers: Age of Ultron Opening Weekend Predictions?
- Thread starter Cheebo
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Bobby Roberts
Banned
This will never not make me grin.
Anyway, put me down for 215-220. Somewhere in there.
Mr. Pointy
Member
$220m
$610m US total. $1.8b WW.
$610m US total. $1.8b WW.
Dragonborn
Member
215 million
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I like the cut of your jib, sir.
BronsonLee
Member
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Price is right rules?
$230 million.
Furious 7 opening tells me that moviegoers are hungry for blockbusters.
$230 million.
Furious 7 opening tells me that moviegoers are hungry for blockbusters.
To be honest though, I wouldn't be surprised if it opened below 200M. 3D screenings counted for 52% of the first movie, and 3D is down to maybe making 20% at most.
So let's say hypothetically, the movie would open at 250M if it had the same 3D gross. 50M increase is being really kind to it. 30% less people are buying 3D tickets, which have a surcharge of at least $2.50. Let's say a 2D ticket costs $10 and a 3D ticket costs $12.50. The overall opening weekend would go down from 250M to 190M.
So let's say hypothetically, the movie would open at 250M if it had the same 3D gross. 50M increase is being really kind to it. 30% less people are buying 3D tickets, which have a surcharge of at least $2.50. Let's say a 2D ticket costs $10 and a 3D ticket costs $12.50. The overall opening weekend would go down from 250M to 190M.
It had a staggered opening much like Age of Ultron is having. It opened in most of it's international markets before it opened in the US. That said, Box Office Mojo has it down as $392.5 million. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has the record for highest global opening weekend at $483.2 million.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I know. I am actually thankful that movies are opening on Thursday evenings now since it is easier to get to if I or my wife have to work in the morning. I was just pointing out that having all those extra show times does add a bit of boost to the numbers.
Harry Potter 8 still has the biggest single day take with $91m. Granted, half of that came from the midnight show. Avengers just wasn't as front loaded with the midnight for opening day.
Which makes me wonder. If HP can get about $91m on opening day, in theory it could come to about $270m for the weekend if it didn't have any drops at all. It is just my brain waking up for the day, but the numbers HP and even first Avengers movie put up on opening day show that there is the capacity for an even bigger record technically.
Or maybe I should just wait for the caffeine to start working and I can think more clearly.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Yeah, but theaters maybe show one more screening after the 7, and then call it a night. The number of screens doing more that the 7pm is probably not much higher than the midnight days when some theaters would run until morning the next day.
Basically, from what I understand, instead of theaters seeing the 7pm start as an opportunity to get an extra 3-4 screenings in before the opening, they still just go with the one.
85% on Rotten Tomatoes isn't bad by any stretch of the imagination. I'm going with $230 million.
Yeah, and again word of mouth is meaningless for opening weekends. Those take a toll down the line. It could have a 50% RT score and still do over 200 mil.
Exactly. It isn't Guardians or Winter Soldier good, but it's still a solid-ass score.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I'm curious as to what happens if this thing makes as much as it did last time, no more than that. Like, what percentage of users here are going to immediately sink their teeth into the narrative that making 200 mil in a single weekend can somehow be spun as a disappointment.
Marvel is DOOOOOMED incoming?
Marvel is DOOOOOMED incoming?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
That is exactly where my brain went after making the post. Theaters no longer doing around the clock showings but instead getting the 7 and maybe 10pm shows in there and calling it a night. The theater in CT would usually do the first show (either the 8 or 10pm that was standard for that film) and then a midnight or close to it and close up shop. Here in KY, the only thing I went opening night for was Furious 7, and they had a couple of showings lined up for Thursday night, but not any overnights as far as I could tell.
With HP I remember them doing 3 and 6 am shows for it, which is insane.
It will be interesting to see how theaters handle Ultron's opening weekend because this time they are ready for it. With the first Avengers it seemed that theaters were ready for a massive weekend, but not that massive.
And even then, all Age of Ultron has to do is stay at or above 75% & it's fine as far as word of mouth goes.
I'm gonna say it'll settle in the 80's.
Tracking numbers say 215 mil. If it does less than that the Deadline's, Hollywood Reporters, etc, of the world will deem it a "disappointment" as some level. Unfairly or not.
As a studio you ALWAYS have to outdo tracking numbers to have the weekend results look good, no matter how high tracking is. It's just part of the expectation game.
Remember the first Avengers was tracking around 150 mil prior to opening, it destroyed those tracking numbers.
George Oscar Bluth II
Banned
Brah, this has a Rotten Tomatoes score in the 80s right now. Marvel is doomed.
Doomed.
DOOOOOOOOOOMED.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I remember the Eastgate here in PDX running a midnight & a 3am, and then reopening the theater at 9am to start opening day on Phantom Menace.
Nathan_Drake
Member
I will say 220. I think the Star Wars trailer before might actually encourage additional viewers that were on the fence for AoU but love SW.
Schweinehund
Member
no lol. So far it's tracking below Avengers 1 and some reviewers have complained about fatigue, but it's far from an awful movie (according to them). It sounds like it's hitting my expectations, too bad I have to wait until 29th
. Still there's very little reviews tracked on rotten tomatoes.I remember some outlets deeming the most recent Hunger Games a 'failure' after it became clear it wouldn't finish in the $400 million range of the first two films.
I think we are well past the days of going to a theater just for a trailer, we can all stream that trailer on our nice tv's at home. Well past the days of looking at a low-rez version on a bad laptop screen.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I don't remember if the theater I went to in Atlanta had 3am and later shows for Phantom Menace. I know they had 9am or so the next day though.
And the midnight showing there was a ton of fun. The box office for the theater was on the second floor of the mall while the theater itself was on the third floor. We got there about 10pm to get in line, and the entire third floor was almost completely full with people waiting to get into the theater.
They still open on Wednesdays. Usually during the summer.
Yeah. Like say for example Ultron does 210 mil opening and finishes at 550 domestic. That is an amazing number for a film. But less than tracking said it would open to and a smaller total than the first, thus a lot of media will call it a disappointment.
Expectations determine how these sort of numbers get perceived in the film press.
Edit: Ah yes the Phantom Menace opening. I remember going to see it the first showing at midnight then right back again first thing in the morning.
Hell, after seeing it a number of times in theaters I happened to be traveling in London when it opened there a month or so later. And what did I do? Go to it opening night at midnight again of course.
I technically saw The Phantom Menace opening night at midnight, twice.
In all seriousness, I don't expect much of an increase over the first movie. I think A1 was already stretching how much money a movie can make over a single weekend. I'm also making the rather obvious prediction that A2 won't have its predecessor's legs. A1 was the ultimate fanboy fulfillment, brewing for decades in the minds of comic book readers. In that sense it was a unique experience at the time. A2 doesn't really offer anything new or out of the ordinary.
I agree, my gut feeling is Ultron will fall short in the end of Avengers in the final tally domestically. I just can't see it pulling off 600 million again. The "wow" factor is not there this time. To do 600 mil+ you have to bring out people who rarely go see movies in theaters. It is going to finish well above 500 mil though, which in itself would be very impressive.
I see it finishing somewhere around 550 mil here.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Jumping on this train as well. Weaker domestic legs as it goes on, but the international spike will bring the worldwide total higher.
I'm gonna be one of the few people predicting slightly less than before, somewhere between 200 and 205 million.
I'll most likely be wrong on that of course, but it doesn't seem like there's quite as much hype this time around. The first Avengers had years of build up and was the first big team-up movie, this one is just more of the same.
I'll most likely be wrong on that of course, but it doesn't seem like there's quite as much hype this time around. The first Avengers had years of build up and was the first big team-up movie, this one is just more of the same.
Says you; I've still avoided Star Wars, Batman v Superman, and every trailer in the last few weeks!
BTW, time for a shameless plug by me, we have a little over a week until the Summer Box Office predictions are due, and if you like predicting for Age of Ultron, why not try the rest of the movies this summer?
please join i'm desperate we only have three people
I'm in the same camp as yourself. $205 million I'm thinking.
Schweinehund
Member
Really depends on the public's response to the "formula", apparently this one is packed with one liners. I think it's a good thing the Russos are moving in for A3 otherwise a Whedon A3 may not be received well.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
BTW, time for a shameless plug by me, we have a little over a week until the Summer Box Office predictions are due, and if you like predicting for Age of Ultron, why not try the rest of the movies this summer?
please join i'm desperate we only have three people
Only two other people threw down after I went first?
COME AT ME.
BronsonLee
Member
I've already won.
I don't want to get got like those poor souls in the Box Office Bomb thread shitting on Maleficent
Megadragon15
Member
I'm going to predict $232 million. Marvel is in beast mode.
superdeluxe
Member
195-215 million.
BossDarkseid
Member
$200mil.
I suspect that in a week period that'll be the most it makes though.
I suspect that in a week period that'll be the most it makes though.
I'm really having a hard time with this one, because the reviews are good but not as good as the first Avengers. The novelty is gone and the excitement of all these characters meeting for the first time is gone, also the first Avengers was a easy enough jump on point for people. I could see it opening a bit below the first Avengers, $190ish million or I could see it opening more in like the $215 million range (sequels tend to be more front loaded) but it's legs aren't as good as the first Avengers and makes less domestically overall.
Official prediction: $205 million, more front loaded and more people going opening weekend, but the 3D % will be much lower and will keep it from doing something astronomical like $250 million.
Official prediction: $205 million, more front loaded and more people going opening weekend, but the 3D % will be much lower and will keep it from doing something astronomical like $250 million.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I think the film will play out very much like The Dark Knight Returns comparatively to its predecessor; similar opening weekend to The Avengers, lower domestic gross, higher international gross (mostly in part due to China).
I am one very much on the "Star Wars is going to do way better than many predict" side of things, I am thinking it is going to do 2.2 billion and be the first non-Cameron film to cross the 2 billion threshold. But it still won't get the opening weekend record. December movies never get massive opening weekends, even the films that go on to make some of the most money of all time such as Return of the King, Titanic, or Avatar.
You need to be a non-Christmas Holiday season film to get that opening record.
Someone also noted above, sequels tend to be more front-loaded. This lends to the theory that this will have a bigger opening than the first Avengers but a less leggy run and fall short of Avengers in the end in final boxoffice numbers (at least domestically). Which is how I see it playing out.
Mr. Pointy
Member
On second thought, I think will be more like a $225m weekend and $590m US total. I don't think it'll have the legs of the first one.
I think $1.8b WW is still likely though. Asia gonna pick that slack up.
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