Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens

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kswiston

Member
Subpar Spatula said:
Has there been a study on trailer views vs BO gross? We could draw parallels to things such as Miley Cyrus' Wrecking Ball or Psy's Gangnam Style. Yeah, they're doing OK but outside of YouTube records are they breaking down doors and taking names?
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Trailer views don't really line up with grosses very well. Fifty Shades of Grey had nearly 70M trailer views while the most viewed Big Hero 6 trailer had 15M views. Big Hero 6 grossed more domestically and overseas.

While I think that Star Wars will at least win domestically this year, the trailer count is not the best measure of that.

Age of Ultron is a sequel to a movie that came out 3 years ago and is part of a series that has already seen 10 films in the past 7 years. People know what they are getting.

Star Wars is the first film in its franchise in a decade, and the first with the original cast in over 30 years. Star Wars also has the male equivalent of the hardcore Twilight fanbase, who are obsessing over every detail of those trailers. I don't really think the MCU has that to even a fraction of the same level. People like the films, but they are not declaring "super soldier" on their census forms.
 
M

Master Yoshi

Member
kswiston said:
Trailer views don't really line up with grosses very well. Fifty Shades of Grey had nearly 70M trailer views while the most viewed Big Hero 6 trailer had 15M views. Big Hero 6 grossed more domestically and overseas.

While I think that Star Wars will at least win domestically this year, the trailer count is not the best measure of that.

Age of Ultron is a sequel to a movie that came out 3 years ago and is part of a series that has already seen 10 films in the past 7 years. People know what they are getting.

Star Wars is the first film in its franchise in a decade, and the first with the original cast in over 30 years. Star Wars also has the male equivalent of the hardcore Twilight fanbase, who are obsessing over every detail of those trailers. I don't really think the MCU has that to even a fraction of the same level. People like the films, but they are not declaring "super soldier" on their census forms.
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Apples and orange. I think trailer views will play a huge part in showing what to expect when these titans collide...

I think the Fifty Shades trailer racked up views because people were curious how racy the film would be...
 
K

kswiston

Member
Master Yoshi said:
Apples and orange. I think trailer views will play a huge part in showing what to expect when these titans collide...

I think the Fifty Shades trailer racked up views because people were curious how racy the film would be...
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The Dark Knight Rises had significantly more trailer views than The Avengers in 2012.

The Highest view count for Guardians of the Galaxy is under 18M. Mockingjay's trailer was about 21M views. The films' domestic tally was within 1% of eachother and Guardians made about $25M more worldwide. Interstellar also had more trailer views than Guardians, and that one made $100M less worldwide (and over $150M less domestically).
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
In terms of trailers it has been reported by Hollywood Reporter and Variety previously that the first teaser back in November for Star Wars has the most views of any trailer of all time online (over 100 million)
 
T

Toothless

Member
Cheebo said:
Decided to see how things were looking over at BoxOffice.com forums. Consensus there now seems that without question it will be topping Avengers, and it even has a decent chance to surpass Avatar as the #1 grossing movie domestically (not worldwide of course). In terms of domestic, the baseline there seems to be at least 600 mil now, many in the 700 mil range.

I am thinking about 760 mil domestic for Star Wars now, 2.2 bill worldwide.
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I'm a member there, and it feels more to me like we're split. Everyone is feeling an Ultron decrease though, while Star Wars can hit in the 450-600M range. It's just kinda up in the air.
 
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TacticalFox88

Banned
I think it's going to have to come down to two things

1)How good both movies are upon initial viewing

2)Which one is more rewatchable and still holds up
 
H

HalfBakedProphet

Member
I could see Age of Ultron hitting 2b and maybe topping Titanic. Marvel is still gaining steam and Ironman 3's BO pull boggles my mind considering it was a solo movie.

Force Awakens is more difficult to gauge because I think its performance is more closely tied to its quality as a film than AoU. Just being Star Wars means it will be a massive hit but it needs to enjoyable to push itself up past that 1.2b range. If its really good, the sky is the limit. AoU could be worse movie than Avergers 1 and I think it would still make more than 1.7b.
 
G

guek

Banned
TacticalFox88 said:
I think it's going to have to come down to two things

1)How good both movies are upon initial viewing

2)Which one is more rewatchable and still holds up
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I know Avengers has its fair share of haters but the truth is that film was really rewatchable for a lot of people. They even had a "go see it again" ad campaign for a week or so.

Now, I know the OT Star Wars is pretty much the most rewatched set of movies of all time but the same can't be said of the prequels. Can Abrams really make something that lives up to the OT? He doesn't have his usual knuckleheads by his side and he's using Kasdan's script so he's got a lot going for him. He has his share of fans but I'm not one of them. I do think though that Star Wars has the potential to be bigger if the film is really good enough.
 
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Cipherr

Member
Probably Star Wars. A shitload of people are crazy for that franchise, and I just dont get it. But I know why I don't. I have never sat through the films. They never interested me, not even a little bit. And Im a die hard sci fi space fan to the death.

I dont know what it is, but I suppose at some point this year I will figure out or ask what order to watch them in and see if Amazon sells them. It would be lovely to look forward to these films, but right now, Im just meh on Star Wars and hyped for Ultron.
 
C

CassSept

Member
Scullibundo said:
I think Star Wars will outgross Ultron, however those thinking that Star Wars currently has a larger hold on demographics are only taking age into account. I still think Marvel has a much better hold of the female demographic than Star Wars right now. I dont know why that is, but it's there.
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I know women who say they don't like Star Wars because it looks stupid even if they didn't watch it *shrug* Those who actually did watch it mostly like it. It's mostly perception issue I think.
 
C

Charles Foster Kane

Rosebud
Scullibundo said:
I think Star Wars will outgross Ultron, however those thinking that Star Wars currently has a larger hold on demographics are only taking age into account. I still think Marvel has a much better hold of the female demographic than Star Wars right now. I dont know why that is, but it's there.
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I think they're currently trying to fix that. But yeah.
 
D

Darth Karja

Member
Star Wars for all of them. For 2015 Avengers will make more money but overall Star Wars. I am a little biased though, Since I am a Sith Lord.
 
P

Pluto

Member
I think they'll both make a ton of money and it will be a close race but I believe Avengers will make more money in the end.

The Phantom menace, also a highly anticipated Star Wars movie (and the highest grossing of the prequel trilogy by far) made $1,027 billion in 1999 adjusted for inflation that's $1,455 billion.

Avengers made $1,518 billion in 2012, adjusted for inflation that's $1,561 billion, so they already made slightly more.

I think some people underestimate how successful The Avengers was and unlike the Star Wars prequels Marvel hasn't had a string of disappointing movies hurting the franchise.
 
D

DeathyBoy

Banned
Star Wars 7.

Avengers 2 will top a billion then fizzle out because the selling point of the original (superheroes team up for the first time) is gone. It'll be a better film but sell less, which is sad. Garbage like the first shouldn't make more money than the better sequel.
 
B

BumRush

Member
While both will make an incredible amount of money for Disney, I believe SW7 will make more, especially internationally.
 
C

Caode

Member
Finaika said:
I'm thinking Ant-Man will be number 3 riding on the success of Avengers.
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Not too sure about that with how Furious 7 is performing, it'll be tough for anything to take the number 3 spot from that worldwide this year. Star Wars and Age of Ultron are the only two films I can see being able to top Furious 7 worldwide.
 
T

Tricky I Shadow

Banned
For making the most money - I used to think it would be Age of Ultron, but now I'm gonna have to go with Star Wars.

EDIT: And which will be the better film? I don't know, probably Age of Ultron. Don't really care much for both of them.
 
R

RoKKeR

Member
This weekend and the hype surrounding Star Wars right now cements me in the Star Wars camp.

The hype for this movie is incredible.
 
C

Count of Monte Sawed-Off

un33dab@dpu$$y
Tricky I Shadow said:
For making the most money - I used to think it would be Age of Ultron, but now I'm gonna have to go with Star Wars.

EDIT: And which will be the better film? I don't know, probably Age of Ultron. Don't really care much for both of them.
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Yeah, originally I thought Avengers would do better, but now I'm leaning more towards Star Wars.

Also don't really have much of an interest in either.
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
First results are in.

AoU 201.2M gross over 3 days from 55% of it's OS market. Crushed TA total and that does not include China.
 
F

FTF

Member
3N16MA said:
First results are in.

AoU 201.2M gross over 3 days from 55% of it's OS market. Crushed TA total and that does not include China.
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Yup, AoU will hit $1.2b OS so figure $1.7-1.8b ww...tough challenge for Star Wars VII so it better step its game up come December.
 
K

kswiston

Member
3N16MA said:
First results are in.

AoU 201.2M gross over 3 days from 55% of it's OS market. Crushed TA total and that does not include China.
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As I said in the other thread, AoU is up 44% in USD over the original Avengers in the territories it opened in so far. Given the strength of the USD at the moment, the local currency number would be even higher.

The South Korea opening was 2.5x higher than the original film's
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Now that Avengers numbers are starting to come in...


....it BEGINS.

This thing is going to be a bit of a slow-motion shitshow for probably the next YEAR.
 
K

kswiston

Member
kurahador said:
If AoU hits $1 bil in OS market, Star Wars has no chance.
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$1B is going to happen. I don't see how Age of Ultron misses that number given what we already have.

Early signs are pointing to a huge Chinese gross. Very likely over $200M. Perhaps in excess of $250M. The first Avengers only made $86M there. South Korea is going to add $50-70M on top of what the first film made. That's an additional $165-235M towards the overseas gross without even factoring in big increases in the rest of Asia and Latin America.

The first Avengers made $890M overseas. Age of Ultron only needs a 12% bump to hit $1B.
 
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