Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens

Status
Not open for further replies.

aerts1js

Member
I just googled an inflation calculator, adjusted the years and input the $775.4 million that Star Wars made.

According to BOM, the average ticket price is $8.30. My area must suck, because we pay ~$10.50 for a ticket.

ah, I see... I think the chart I was looking at only took the domestic into consideration. Still though, the movie theater experience in the 70's is different than now.

Back then movies would stay in the theaters MUCH longer than they do now and there was a lot less competition.. still....Star Wars is being released in December so not sure if competition will really be an issue.
 

Mumei

Member
An important point. Star Wars toys for kids DWARF Marvel toys in sales. It is not even close. The year Avengers came out, 2012. What was the #1 toy brand for young boys? Star Wars. A year of no Star Wars film at all.

Kids are more into Star Wars than any super hero franchise, and that is without a movie. It isn't just the nostalgia factor of the bay boomer generation, kids clearly are all in for Star Wars, more than any other franchise in existence.

There has not been a single year in the past decade Star Wars was not the #1 boys toy brand. A decade without a single live action Star Wars film.

Toys are just one (admittedly very large) piece, though. Overall merchandise is still competitive, I think. In 2011, Star Wars generated $3 billion in merchandise sales. This article says that Marvel generated $6 billion in retail merchandise sales in 2012, and this article says that Marvel generated retail sales of $5.6 billion in 2010 and $4.9 billion in 2009. Spider-Man alone generated $1.3 billion in 2014.

Either way, Disney is laughing all the way to the bank; total retail sales of $40.9 billion in 2013, up from $28.6 billion in 2010.

Star Wars should get a huge boost once the new movie comes out.
 
I wonder what Marvel fans thought when Disney CEO Bob Iger called Star Wars the most iconic franchise of all time yesterday lol.
There are a few Marvel fans that are thought to be myth. These mythical fans claim to also like other franchises, such as Star Wars and DC. I can safely say that we are no myth. We walk among the Earth, just like normal people, but few know who we really are.

Seriously: Who cares? In the end, Disney wins. Fans win. Everyone wins.
 

aerts1js

Member
Uhm, Star Wars is way more popular with every demographic. Everyone ranging from kids to grandparents loves Star Wars, while the Avengers demographic is mainly teens and adolescents.

It's really not. Star Wars is mainly popular with males and young boys whereas Marvel movies have a lot more broad demographic these days. 10 years ago I might have agreed with you.
 

MaddenNFL64

Member
On what I see around me (Netherlands).The moment the Star Wars trailer was released my Facebook exploded and my mom and my 6-year old nephew both Whatsapped me to ask if I had already seen it. Avengers on the other hand has almost no hype amongst people I know, only the most (sorry for the term) "nerdy" people I know talk about it.

Same. My coworkers talked about the Teaser at length last night, were watching it on their phones during break etc. Avengers just didn't do that. I'm fucking hyped for both, but its different. Maybe because this is like a return to form for Star Wars, and Marvel has its shit together, so there is less excitement over the sequel.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
what's the christmas box office like generally compared to Summer? Although AoU is coming early this year - pretty much kicking off summer, I don't think I've ever gone to the cinema over christmas - always distracted by travel and family stuffs.
 

MaddenNFL64

Member
what's the christmas box office like generally compared to Summer? Although AoU is coming early this year - pretty much kicking off summer, I don't think I've ever gone to the cinema over christmas - always distracted by travel and family stuffs.

Avatar came out around Christmas.
 
Hm...Where did you get your number from? according to boxofficemojo.com the original star wars made about 1.5 billion adjusted for inflation

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

The $1.5 billion is for domestic gross only. I'm not sure what the WW gross would have translated to, though I imagine the foreign box office receipts would have been much much smaller. I'm not sure if there is any consistent data on adjusted for inflation for other markets other than the US (not to mention, the AFI is pretty simplistic in its calculation - it's not exact, since exact ticket sales and prices are not known).
 

Mumei

Member
The $1.5 billion is for domestic gross only. I'm not sure what the WW gross would have translated to, though I imagine the foreign box office receipts would have been much much smaller. I'm not sure if there is any consistent data on adjusted for inflation for other markets other than the US (not to mention, the AFI is pretty simplistic in its calculation - it's not exact, since exact ticket sales and prices are not known).

Here. There's a table if you scroll down a bit. It's estimated at an adjusted ~$2.825 billion here, based on 2014 numbers, for third overall.
 
This is like watching both of your sons fight.
You don't pick a side, you just come home with ice cream and enjoy both of them.

It may love both, but Disney clearly favors one over the other.

The one they called the most iconic franchise of all-time. The bigger cash cow.
 
what's the christmas box office like generally compared to Summer? Although AoU is coming early this year - pretty much kicking off summer, I don't think I've ever gone to the cinema over christmas - always distracted by travel and family stuffs.

Christmas movies tend to have smaller opening weekends with much longer legs. There's not usually much strong competition at the start of the year, so big movies can have a nice run. Avatar didn't break many records opening weekend, but it simply would not stop making money.

Summer movies can be monstrous to begin with, but far more movies come out at that time of year, meaning more competition for wallets and screens, and (generally) shorter legs.
 

zoukka

Member
Even with JJ abrams being a mediocre director at best, the theme of SW alone crushes some comic book hero movie. Like it's not even a fair comparison.
 
You like to watch your sons fight? You eat icecream while watching them wail on each other?

simpsons-international_528_poster.png
 

Cheebo

Banned
It may love both, but Disney clearly favors one over the other.

The one they called the most iconic franchise of all-time. The bigger cash cow.

Iger is happy with both his cash cows. But the way he keeps referring to the titanic/avatar release date he is eyeing that #1 box-office of all time title like nobodys business.

As for summer vs winter.

Avatar and Titanic came out Dec 18/19th. Both the #1 & #2 highest grossing movies of all time domestically. Star Wars is out Dec 18th.

Summer gives you the opening weekend records. Winter is how you are able to build legs and get to the 600 mil+ domestic numbers.
 
D

Deleted member 20920

Unconfirmed Member
With Avengers opening around the world earlier than in the US, wouldn't it be more difficult to get an accurate figure for Worldwide opening weekend numbers? Or do they just add up weekend numbers of all countries and use that?
 

Frog-fu

Banned
I'm not sure which will do better commercially or critically, and although I'll be watching both on the day of release, I am rooting for Star Wars all the way. I'm just too damn excited for it.
 

kswiston

Member
Iger is happy with both his cash cows. But the way he keeps referring to the titanic/avatar release date he is eyeing that #1 box-office of all time title like nobodys business.

As for summer vs winter.

Avatar and Titanic came out Dec 18/19th. Both the #1 & #2 highest grossing movies of all time domestically. Star Wars is out Dec 18th.

Summer gives you the opening weekend records. Winter is how you are able to build legs and get to the 600 mil+ domestic numbers.

A sample size of 2 is not really any real indication of a pattern. The #3 and 4 films of all time domestic were released in the summer, and Titanic is a special case (seeing as it attendance beat the original Star Wars in its initial run). You get a bit of a leg boost from a December opening, but something as hyped as Star Wars is still going to make most of its money in those first 10 days.
 

dabig2

Member
It may love both, but Disney clearly favors one over the other.

The one they called the most iconic franchise of all-time. The bigger cash cow.

Don't think they particularly care as long as both bring home the bacon. And of course Star Wars is the most iconic franchise of all-time. That's barely up to debate and in no way a "oooooh, he kinda just shamed the MCU there" kind of line nor should anyone care beyond the enormous amount of truth behind the statement. Star Wars has permeated pop culture for the past near 40 years.
 

Sanke__

Member
Force Awakens
(In the US at least, dont know enough to be sure about worldwide)

Blops 3 will make more than both of them
 

Caoz

Member
My bet is on Star Wars.

JJ has to make a very bad movie for this not to be the case.

I can't judge people that bet for Avengers thou... Young people make mistakes like that all the time.
 

Caoz

Member
of course SW is huge WW but it's % wise not nearly as huge as it is in the US.

JP 3D only did 100M and the split was basically the same as before, it was actually a bit more in favour of the domestic intake, so the split was higher before.

Lion King was a bit stronger internationally but even before the rerelease i think it grossed more internationally than any SW ever.

I'm just saying that the hype in the US for SW is obviously insane and i'm not sure it travels all that well in to new territories and it was never on the same level in the old ones. Avengers is new an fresh for everyone and it's more proven in the new markets, i think.

SW is not a US only Phenomenon... Here in Mexico they used to play the original trilogy very often on weekends when I was little, all three in a row. I watched the three every time. I know I was not the only one. And Mexico was not the only country where it happened.
 

rhino4evr

Member
Star Wars for both

There are SO many super hero movies these days, it still amazes me the public hasn't tired of them. The bubble will burst eventually.

I think Star Wars will appeal to another sizable audience that don't care for the mega CG blockbusters of today. It will have the young, teen, 20s. 30-40s, and on crowd lining up. It will have massive appeal on all age levels by all sorts of movie goers worldwide.
 

Ithil

Member
Star Wars for both

There are SO many super hero movies these days, it still amazes me the public hasn't tired of them. The bubble will burst eventually.

I think Star Wars will appeal to another sizable audience that don't care for the mega CG blockbusters of today. It will have the young, teen, 20s. 30-40s, and on crowd lining up. It will have massive appeal on all age levels by all sorts of movie goers worldwide.

The "bubble will eventually burst" claim is flawed enough as it is, but you're claiming it about a movie coming out in two weeks, the sequel to the second biggest movie ever.
 

AHA-Lambda

Member
I don't know much about these sorts to make an educated guess, but I want to say Avengers?

Avengers was the 3rd most successful movie of all time, Star Wars isn't close to that, it doesn't appear in the highest box office list until 16th.
Why will Ep 7 eclipse the sequel to the 3rd most successful movie ever made?

EDIT: Ah I see the discussion on the previous page regarding Star Wars performance with inflaation, nvm :p
 

Dalek

Member
I can't wait to see both-but after that Trailer-Star Wars is going to rule all, in my opinion.

That being said, I'm not sure how it being released at Christmas as opposed to Summer might affect it's long term box office.
 
SW is not a US only Phenomenon... Here in Mexico they used to play the original trilogy very often on weekends when I was little, all three in a row. I watched the three every time. I know I was not the only one. And Mexico was not the only country where it happened.

oh sure it's big in other places and it's huge world wide. my argument was that the US in comparison is even more crazy about SW and the new markets might not be more interested in it than other big blockbuster movies.

Marvel movies are proven to be popular there (and everywhere else). Cap 2 made 120 million in China, that was already 30 more than Avengers did and i'm sure it'll be even more for 2. I wonder if China cares about SW, i know that the prequels grossed very very little but it probably wasn't on. I'm not sure if nostalgia for the OT exists there.

that said wouldn't be very surprised if SW beats out Avengers, it can go either way.
 

Cse

Banned
This won't even be a contest. Star Wars is one of the biggest brands in the world, and names like "Luke Skywalker" and "R2-D2" are household names.

Ask most non-comic book fans who "Bruce Banner" and "Steven Rogers" are and they won't have a clue.

The simple fact is that most people who end up seeing Avengers will probably ending up seeing Episode VII, and vice versa. However, Star Wars has a much greater reach to the general population.
 

kswiston

Member
Here. There's a table if you scroll down a bit. It's estimated at an adjusted ~$2.825 billion here, based on 2014 numbers, for third overall.

Inflation numbers for movies prior to the 1980s are just guessworks.

1) Earlier films has were pretty much in constant unofficial reissue at various theatres for years or decades prior to the popularization of home television (and later VHS). Sometimes sites like BOM have access to yearly breakdowns, sometimes not.

2) Popular films like Gone with the Wind often played a nicer roadhouse theatres which charged several times (5-10x) what the average ticket price was at the time. Inflation calculations don't/can't take this into consideration (since there aren't records of where the gross came from, even if they have records of gross per year), so some of the earlier big films or overestimated by significant margins.


Mojo's Star Wars inflation number is pretty easily shown to be an overestimate.

Using their own publicly listed info, you can see that Star Wars' initial run is listed at $307M, which they adjust to $1.16B domestic in 2014 dollars. Mojo gives their average ticket prices for 2014 ($8.17) and 1977 ($2.23). Just doing a simple calculation, you can see that they basically just took that $307M and multiplied it by ~4x increase in average ticket prices.

However, their own weekend data shows that Star Wars was sitting at $215M after 10 months of release, and the other ~$95M came from re-expansions/unofficial re-releases in the summer of 1978, 1979, and presumably afterwards (prior to the official reissue in 1982).

Average ticket prices went up 25% between 1977 and 1981. Even between 1977 and 1979 there was a 13% increase. As such, that last 30% of the "initial run" is probably overestimated 10-20%. Not a ton, but enough to bump it below the initial run of Titanic and E.T.
 

Mumei

Member
Inflation numbers for movies prior to the 1980s are just guessworks.

1) Earlier films has were pretty much in constant unofficial reissue at various theatres for years or decades prior to the popularization of home television (and later VHS). Sometimes sites like BOM have access to yearly breakdowns, sometimes not.

2) Popular films like Gone with the Wind often played a nicer roadhouse theatres which charged several times (5-10x) what the average ticket price was at the time. Inflation calculations don't/can't take this into consideration (since there aren't records of where the gross came from, even if they have records of gross per year), so some of the earlier big films or overestimated by significant margins.


Mojo's Star Wars inflation number is pretty easily shown to be an overestimate.

Using their own publicly listed info, you can see that Star Wars' initial run is listed at $307M, which they adjust to $1.16B domestic in 2014 dollars. Mojo gives their average ticket prices for 2014 ($8.17) and 1977 ($2.23). Just doing a simple calculation, you can see that they basically just took that $307M and multiplied it by ~4x increase in average ticket prices.

However, their own weekend data shows that Star Wars was sitting at $215M after 10 months of release, and the other ~$95M came from re-expansions/unofficial re-releases in the summer of 1978, 1979, and presumably afterwards (prior to the official reissue in 1982).

Average ticket prices went up 25% between 1977 and 1981. Even between 1977 and 1979 there was a 13% increase. As such, that last 30% of the "initial run" is probably overestimated 10-20%. Not a ton, but enough to bump it below the initial run of Titanic and E.T.

Oh, I see. I had sort of taken it on faith that they knew what they were doing and that it was at least reasonably accurate, but it's that's not the case... *shrugs*
 

kswiston

Member
Oh, I see. I had sort of taken it on faith that they knew what they were doing and that it was at least reasonably accurate, but it's that's not the case... *shrugs*

The more recent films are pretty accurate for domestic takes. 'modern' box office starts around 1982, so inflation works well after that. Obviously films closer to that date (like Star Wars) are going to be more accurate than stuff from the 40s or 50s.

There are way too many factors to consider for me to put much stock in accurate overseas estimates of inflation though.
 
Something telling:

Age of Ultron Trailer 1 - 71.5 million views (5 months)
Age of Ultron Trailer 2 - 38.4 million views (3 months)
Age of Ultron Trailer 3 - 29.3 million views (1.5 months ago)

The Force Awakens Trailer 2 - 22.9 million views (24 hours)
 
Something telling:

Age of Ultron Trailer 1 - 71.5 million views (5 months)
Age of Ultron Trailer 2 - 38.4 million views (3 months)
Age of Ultron Trailer 3 - 29.3 million views (1.5 months ago)

The Force Awakens Trailer 2 - 22.9 million views (24 hours)

Has there been a study on trailer views vs BO gross? We could draw parallels to things such as Miley Cyrus' Wrecking Ball or Psy's Gangnam Style. Yeah, they're doing OK but outside of YouTube records are they breaking down doors and taking names?
 
Has there been a study on trailer views vs BO gross? We could draw parallels to things such as Miley Cyrus' Wrecking Ball or Psy's Gangnam Style. Yeah, they're doing OK but outside of YouTube records are they breaking down doors and taking names?

You're missing the point. The hype is there for Star Wars on a level beyond Age of Ultron.
 

sharbhund

Member
This won't even be a contest. Star Wars is one of the biggest brands in the world, and names like "Luke Skywalker" and "R2-D2" are household names.

Ask most non-comic book fans who "Bruce Banner" and "Steven Rogers" are and they won't have a clue.

The simple fact is that most people who end up seeing Avengers will probably ending up seeing Episode VII, and vice versa. However, Star Wars has a much greater reach to the general population.

That's not exactly a fair comparison, since those characters aren't marketed as Bruce Banner or Steve Rodgers. It'd be like saying that Lara Croft is more iconic than Indiana Jones because most people wouldn't be able to recognize the name "Henry Walton Jones, Jr."

That said, I expect Star Wars will make more than the Avengers.
 
I think Star Wars will outgross Ultron, however those thinking that Star Wars currently has a larger hold on demographics are only taking age into account. I still think Marvel has a much better hold of the female demographic than Star Wars right now. I dont know why that is, but it's there.
 
I think Star Wars will outgross Ultron, however those thinking that Star Wars currently has a larger hold on demographics are only taking age into account. I still think Marvel has a much better hold of the female demographic than Star Wars right now. I dont know why that is, but it's there.

After TFA little girls, the real money machines, are going to be all about that Star Wars.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom