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Is Console Gaming coming to a close?

The hardcore gamers on this site may want to deny it but the value prop of home consoles for the casual gamer is shrinking dramatically. When you think about it from a practical perspective, people are upgrading their pocket computers (cell phones) every 2-3 years. With the volumes and market dynamics of those devices you are already seeing graphics that are fairly close to last gen home consoles in quality. Now that this console generation is set, there is a good chance that in a few years cell phones will rival the PS4 in graphic fidelity. Why buy another expensive computer (home console) just to game? Add in the near infinite number of free to play games on phones and the costs of owning a home console are just not worth it unless you are really into the hobby.

I feel for Japanese game publishers. The PS4 is a huge success worldwide and yet the PS4 has sold something like 1 million units in Japan I believe. You would have to be nuts to spend $50M+ on a home console game if you are a Japanese gaming publisher. The Japanese consumer has spoken and the Japanese publishers are simply following consumers to where the money is.
 
I feel for Japanese game publishers. The PS4 is a huge success worldwide and yet the PS4 has sold something like 1 million units I believe. You would have to be nuts to spend $50M+ on a home console game if you are a Japanese gaming publisher. The Japanese consumer has spoken and the Japanese publishers are simply following consumers to where the money is.

What are you actually saying here? Because over 20 million PS4s have been sold so far. Do you mean in Japan specifically or something?
 
Not in Japan. The PS4 is still well below the WiiU in Japan and even at current sales trajectories for each is months if not years away from catching up.

Ask yourself what JP centric games have launched for the platform and there's your answer.

There's a grand total of one game i would call compelling for that market, and it's been out for one month.
 
Yes that's why all the major publishers like EA, Ubisoft, Activison and so on posted new records for their last fiscal year. It's not even a week old that we had these threads here. I somehow doubt this is solely because of mobile...
 
Ask yourself what JP centric games have launched for the platform and there's your answer.

There's a grand total of one game i would call compelling for that market, and it's been out for one month.

Sony treating Japan as an afterthought really doesn't make the decision a lot of Japanese developers are looking at to go to Mobile as their primary platform harder.

EDIT:
PS4 is should eclipse WiiU by the end of 2016, so in 1.5 years.

Yes, an amount that can be fairly described as "months if not years", no?

E2:
Yes that's why all the major publishers like EA, Ubisoft, Activison and so on posted new records for their last fiscal year. It's not even a week old that we had these threads here. I somehow doubt this is solely because of mobile...

It's entirely possible for a market to be shrinking while the leaders in that market consume more and more of the wealth.
 
Ask yourself what JP centric games have launched for the platform and there's your answer.

There's a grand total of one game i would call compelling for that market, and it's been out for one month.

Few games of a Japanese nature are being made for that console because the market isn't there.
 
Sony as a company is on its knees
Microsoft's game division is on its knees
Nintendo's console is on its knees


Sony as a company, I dont know....imagine if they only had their profitable divisions. Right now gaming is one.

MS...dont really know but I thought the XBO was doing better than the 360 in the same time frame.

Nintendo....they still have the handheld market locked down. But yea...Nintendo and home consoles isnt looking too good right now.

The rest of your post, that could cause the death of console gaming if all publishers and devs went that route. We arent at that point yet. Just like I think its too early to declare the PS4 the winner for this gen...its too early to say console gaming is on its way out.

Even before the iPhone the mobile phone market was healthy, wasnt in danger. It may have gave a boost to the smartphone market but even that wasnt in danger.
 
Sony treating Japan as an afterthought really doesn't make the decision a lot of Japanese developers are looking at to go to Mobile as their primary platform harder.

EDIT:


Yes, an amount that can be fairly described as "months if not years", no?

E2:


It's entirely possible for a market to be shrinking while the leaders in that market consume more and more of the wealth.

No, not years because that would imply 2 or more.
 
Well, I can certainly agree with your opinion on plug and play or ease of use. Although sometimes it almost borderlines laziness. I think it does in my particular situation anyway.

What's ridiculous is that I just finished building a monster gaming PC for a friend of mine. He runs fighting game events and told me that he wanted a system that would be able to handle streaming in HD without any issues and be able to play all of the current gen games at much higher resolutions and framerates over the consoles.

So he has that, and it cost him $1,300. Yet he hasn't gamed on it once outside of a few gaming events with Mortal Kombat X because it's like he has this wierd technophobia, even though all he has to do literally is turn the system on and double click the launcher icon. From there he can just use any console controller he wants to do the rest. It's already setup with his TV and stereo too. It's also setup as a media player for all of his Blu-rays (or mine that I put on his drive), yet he hasn't used it for that once either and would rather rent a Blu-ray from Redbox so that he can just pop it in his PS3 and play! Talk about a waste of money.

The average consumer is lazy, heck I am when it comes to buying some stuff. I don't really blame people not wanting to learn about stuff that is just for entertainment. The consoles fill this void, maybe one day pc's will also.
 
So the PS2 and PS1 were anomaly as well?

Because in case you don't remember, before PS1 no games console had sold more than 60m yet PS1 easily sold more than 100m, also PS2 sold 150m when no other console has sold that much ever, that's more than the Wii by far.

Also must mean Nintendo DS is an anomaly as well...

Console gaming isn't dead, but that's not to say the market hasn't contracted.
The Wii was an anomaly, just look at Nintendo's console sales trend. Each console sold less than the last, with the trend being dropping about 10m each gen. The Wii sold at insane levels for a few years. I don't remember who posted the best April sales in the nap thread, might have been you, but the highest April for the Wii is over 700k while the highest outside the Wii was the 360 with just under 300k.

I would have said the PS1 was an anomaly until the PS2 showed Sony's ability to sell. Nintendo's handheld trend looks similar to their console trend DS does look like an anomaly there as well.
 
How is it SONYS fault that JP third party studios don't have their shit together?

So the PS4 isn't designed at a high strategic level as a console to be doubling down on the Western AAA market? And that didn't result in record breaking launch sales?

If you want to credit Sonys strategy for their current global positioning, then you at the same token have to condemn them for their japanese positioning, because one is the result of the other.
Looking at the Japanese market its hard to say it was even a bad choice, but it was their choice.
 
So the PS4 isn't designed at a high strategic level as a console to be doubling down on the Western AAA market? And that didn't result in record breaking launch sales?

If you want to credit Sonys strategy for their current global positioning, then you at the same token have to condemn them for their japanese positioning, because one is the result of the other.
Looking at the Japanese market its hard to say it was even a bad choice, but it was their choice.

nonsense.

The PS4 was designed first and foremost to be easy to program, unlike the last two consoles sony put out. It wasn't designed to "double down on the western AAA market" from a hardware perspective. There is literally no reason why JP studios should be struggling with it.

Western studios are simply better organized and better at cranking out games than JP studios are, and it's been that way since the last generation. FFXV hasn't been in development for over a decade because of anything SONY did- That's Square Enix having no idea what they're doing.

Sony's current GLOBAL positioning isn't due to anything they did with the PS4 specifically- it's due to Sony's excellent handling of the PS3 in the latter half of last generation, consistently supporting it and aiding third parties when necessary. There was so much good will built up by the time the PS4 launched that sony could have sold virtually anything and gamers would have lined up and bought it. Contrast this to the Wii which had been all but abandoned by nintendo, and the 360 which had dropped everything to push kinect.

You could also point at Sony's competition dropping the ball leaving EU with no legitimate competition. Microsoft has never been interested in anywhere outside of the US and UK, and Nintendo's home console business has been a dumpster fire since 2011.
 
So the PS4 isn't designed at a high strategic level as a console to be doubling down on the Western AAA market? And that didn't result in record breaking launch sales?

If you want to credit Sonys strategy for their current global positioning, then you at the same token have to condemn them for their japanese positioning, because one is the result of the other.
Looking at the Japanese market its hard to say it was even a bad choice, but it was their choice.

Wrong because Sony is doing more now than it did previously for JP publishers

From Software
- Bloodborne ( co-developed/funded)

Capcom
- Dragons Dogma Online
- Deep Down (development of next gen engine help)
- SFV (funding)

SE
- DQH (I'm sure there was some nudging by Sony here)
- FF Dissidia (?)
- SO5

We also have NIS commenting that SCE helped them with marketing budget (suggesting they are at least aware of niche devs) and L5 are making a PS4 game to be announced at E3 (SCE has had a history in making stuff with L5 so its a possibility).

I'm sure we will see more as well.
 
Western studios are simply better organized and better at cranking out games than JP studios are, and it's been that way since the last generation. FFXV hasn't been in development for over a decade because of anything SONY did- That's Square Enix having no idea what they're doing.

even if this is true, Saint Sony can do no wrong, and it is all stupid lazy Japanese devs - again, that does not make their imminent hard choices as to what platforms they should actually be developing for harder
 
Do kids get into console gaming any more? Feels like all kids game on phones or ipads, then move on to PC. Compared to phones, how many games are there really on XB1 & PS4 that are must buys for 8-12 year olds?

The console market may grow somewhat, but how many hundreds of millions phones and pads are sold every year?
 
Few games of a Japanese nature are being made for that console because the market isn't there.

This depends on your particular slant, because BOTH statements are true.

The market isn't there because there are no Japanese games, and there are no Japanese games because the market isn't there.

Which came first? Game development starts before the launch of a console, meaning the devs didn't know there'd be no market there. They just assumed there wouldn't be. A self-fulfilling prophecy.

That's why I put the majority of blames on the devs, not the market. We have no way to know how good the PS4 would be selling in Japan if the games existed.
 
even if this is true

It is true. Square's organizational issues are VERY well documented by now.

Saint Sony can do no wrong, and it is all stupid lazy Japanese devs - again, that does not make their imminent hard choices as to what platforms they should actually be developing for harder

I didn't say anything about laziness, I said it was organization. Look up the development hell that was FFXIII. Development on that game went on for years with departments literally not talking to each other. Ask yourself how much time and effort went into proprietary engines like crystal tools when they should have been using third party middleware like everyone else who doesn't take a decade to make a game.

but all this is beyond the point. the original intent of my point was to clarify WHY the WiiU specifically was outselling the PS4 in Japan, and the reason is obvious. There aren't any games outside of bloodborne (which just launched) or MAYBE driveclub (which was crippled with severe launch issues) targeted at JP gamers.

If the reverse were true- if all there was to play on the PS4 was "hyperdimension panty simulator 2" and Call of Duty was 2 years off, it wouldn't be selling in the west either.
 
Console and mobile gaming will merge.
android home consoles that feature better graphics and features of games compared to their mobile counterparts.
 
Do kids get into console gaming any more? Feels like all kids game on phones or ipads, then move on to PC. Compared to phones, how many games are there really on XB1 & PS4 that are must buys for 8-12 year olds?

The console market may grow somewhat, but how many hundreds of millions phones and pads are sold every year?

lol
 
Apple/Google/Microsoft need to find a way to make high-fidelity input more enticing for consumers to carry with them for that to happen.

I've never tried the Controller-With-A-Clip thing. That might work.

Just bought an Xperia z3 compact smartphone and the controller clip for my ps4 controller. I now have 1:1 button inputs for ps4 remote play, so I no longer need my vita at all.

Tlou factions can get a hit laggy sometimes, but overall I'm really happy with it.
 
the original intent of my point was to clarify WHY the WiiU specifically was outselling the PS4 in Japan

Which is completely irrelevant because this topic isn't about "console wars" its about "console extinction".

It really doesn't matter if Velociraptors were significantly better predators than T-Rexes.
 
Which is completely irrelevant because this topic isn't about "console wars" its about "console extinction".

It really doesn't matter if Velociraptors were significantly better predators than T-Rexes.

if it's completely irrelevant, then you shouldn't have spoken because my post was in response to YOUR COMMENT, son.
 
That's why I put the majority of blames on the devs, not the market. We have no way to know how good the PS4 would be selling in Japan if the games existed.
We've got a pretty good guess based on the last, oh, ten years or so of publicly available market data detailing the performance of home consoles in Japan.
 
Sony treating Japan as an afterthought really doesn't make the decision a lot of Japanese developers are looking at to go to Mobile as their primary platform harder.

Why? Because it launched later than in NA/EU?

I mean it was a no brainer. Focusing on these markets where they were going to have a bit of competition was the obvious choice. The XB1 was never going to be a problem in Japan, and it's clear the WiiU was doing poorly already.
 
Do kids get into console gaming any more? Feels like all kids game on phones or ipads, then move on to PC. Compared to phones, how many games are there really on XB1 & PS4 that are must buys for 8-12 year olds?

The console market may grow somewhat, but how many hundreds of millions phones and pads are sold every year?

Completely different markets... a lot of people also buy multiple pens a year... oh no, cells are dead ;)

You might say portable consoles are in trouble, but home entertainment is not the same as small screen cell. Just different markets.
 
Completely different markets... a lot of people also buy multiple pens a year... oh no, cells are dead ;)

You might say portable consoles are in trouble, but home entertainment is not the same as small screen cell. Just different markets.

Agree completely. Smartphones are eating portables alive (and I think tablets are a dead end personally- phablets will kill them) but there's never been any real impact of smartphones on console sales.

Or to put it another way, Candy Crush and Cut the Rope aren't going to do much to satisfy someone looking to play Destiny or GTAV.
 
The Wii was an anomaly, just look at Nintendo's console sales trend. Each console sold less than the last, with the trend being dropping about 10m each gen. The Wii sold at insane levels for a few years. I don't remember who posted the best April sales in the nap thread, might have been you, but the highest April for the Wii is over 700k while the highest outside the Wii was the 360 with just under 300k.

I would have said the PS1 was an anomaly until the PS2 showed Sony's ability to sell. Nintendo's handheld trend looks similar to their console trend DS does look like an anomaly there as well.

All of the most successful consoles (including ps2 and wii) tapped non traditional markets to reach their high numbers. The only anomaly is that there aren't any consoles reaching those demographics this generation, and that is where the panic button is hit in regards to the contraction of that market. The name on the front of the box doesn't really mean much when you're looking at numbers.


What he said isn't inaccurate. There are far more young ins playing f2p mmos worldwide than there are playing on these consoles

We've got a pretty good guess based on the last, oh, ten years or so of publicly available market data detailing the performance of home consoles in Japan.

Bingo
 
All of the most successful consoles (including ps2 and wii) tapped non traditional markets to reach their high numbers. The only anomaly is that there aren't any consoles reaching those demographics this generation, and that is where the panic button is hit in regards to the contraction of that market. The name on the front of the box doesn't really mean much when you're looking at numbers.

Yes and no. Go back a little further to the PS1 era. That was the first BIG expansion of the market since the NES era, and Sony accomplished that by a targeted outreach to older gamers that typically "aged out" of the hobby.

that nontraditional audience became the core gaming audience, and Sony held onto that 100M or so audience with the PS2.

The PS2 outsold the PS1 by quite a bit (50M units!) but consider again that those extra 50M units came after the launch of the PS3- The PS2 had an abnormally long lifespan and was still in production for 13 years!. The nontraditional audience there were mostly budget gamers buying the console extremely cheaply and picking through what was (and probably still is) the most massive game library of all time- most of it used at that point.

The Wii was heavy on the nontraditional audience from the start, but unlike the PS1 or PS2 that audience left en masse before the generation was even over- sales collapsed for nintendo completely around 2010, while the PS3 and 360 were still selling strongly. THAT'S not an audience anyone has any real interest in chasing.
 
Do kids get into console gaming any more? Feels like all kids game on phones or ipads, then move on to PC. Compared to phones, how many games are there really on XB1 & PS4 that are must buys for 8-12 year olds?

The console market may grow somewhat, but how many hundreds of millions phones and pads are sold every year?

The trend is toward more kids playing games on mobile (phone/tablet) while on the go, which is why we'll be seeing dedicated handhelds fighting tooth and nail for relevance as these kids grow and become consumers with cash who won't know/care about them.

Consoles are in a different position. Mobile likely isn't going to start cutting into that market and streaming boxes have infrastructure obstacles to overcome before they can seriously challenge consoles.

That leaves PC. I don't know that I buy the assertion that PC is the next step for kids post-tablet/phone, but with tablets becoming more like PCs with time... maybe that bears out. With the plug-and-play feature of consoles having evaporated over the last few years (installs, patches, firmware leading to wait times), it's closer to a PC experience anyway.

As this generation of kids grows up, it will certainly be interesting to see where the electronic entertainment money goes. It's not a slam dunk that it'll go into consoles, as it was in the past.
 
Yes and no. Go back a little further to the PS1 era. That was the first BIG expansion of the market since the NES era, and Sony accomplished that by a targeted outreach to older gamers that typically "aged out" of the hobby.

that nontraditional audience became the core gaming audience, and Sony held onto that 100M or so audience with the PS2.

The PS2 outsold the PS1 by quite a bit (50M units!) but consider again that those extra 50M units came after the launch of the PS3- The PS2 had an abnormally long lifespan and was still in production for 13 years!. The nontraditional audience there were mostly budget gamers buying the console extremely cheaply and picking through what was (and probably still is) the most massive game library of all time- most of it used at that point.

The Wii was heavy on the nontraditional audience from the start, but unlike the PS1 or PS2 that audience left en masse before the generation was even over- sales collapsed for nintendo completely around 2010, while the PS3 and 360 were still selling strongly. THAT'S not an audience anyone has any real interest in chasing.

Yeah who would want to chase a mystical non gaming audience that purchased 9 games per console.
 
Yeah who would want to chase a mystical non gaming audience that purchased 9 games per console.
Sony and Microsoft aren't, and neither are any of the big third party publishers. If that audience was so lucrative in the console space, why is no one going after them.
 
Yeah who would want to chase a mystical non gaming audience that purchased 9 games per console.

9 games per console sounds great, until you realize the vast majority were bought in the first three years, then virtually nothing after that. This is absolutely not a healthy situation for a console.

The Wii started out tracking like it would easily pass the PS2 in total sales, and ended up falling short of the PS1. You think Nintendo was happy with that?

Sony and Microsoft aren't, and neither are any of the big third party publishers. If that audience was so lucrative in the console space, why is no one going after them.

Exactly. and though there was a lot of third party software on the Wii, none of it sold well. "Just Dance" aside, third party titles struggled to break 1 or 2 million units, no matter what they were. That audience simply wasn't interested in the kinds of games third parties had been making.
 
Consoles died post GameCube Generation. The collapse of the midtier publisher was a huge hit to the console market. We are now flooded with cookie cutter games that predominetly fall within three, maybe four, genres. Sequelitius has always been a problem in the industry but I think it's worse now than ever before. Indie gaming and arcade gaming does not fill the void because often times the pool of games only a few are standout successes, and developers don't seem to make enough money to generate long standing IPs that transcend generations or even make a cultural impact. Coincide that with the loss of the handheld market which often homed a lot of experimental and supplemental games to boost existing brands leaves mega publishers putting major bets on a one shot pony. If it has disappointing financial results, the IP is retooled or shelved, and the developer often is farmed out or shut down entirely.
 
Sony and Microsoft aren't, and neither are any of the big third party publishers. If that audience was so lucrative in the console space, why is no one going after them.

I don't really know how much clearer a message than Konamis CEO outright stating that that audience IS important, and as they're no longer in the console space neither are they can be.

Oh right, yeah, Konami don't matter any more. their grapes are too sour.
 
Sony and Microsoft aren't, and neither are any of the big third party publishers. If that audience was so lucrative in the console space, why is no one going after them.

All of them went after that market, heavily, for years. They just got their asses beat, again for years - because they all wanted to pump out some crap to cash in and make a quick buck instead of actually learning to cater to a broad demographic - and then retreated back to their HD pillow forts when they realized that the competitive advantage of being the rich guys who can get better production values wasn't ever going to do them much good in a market that didn't generally give a shit whether or not you were using facial mo-cap and subsurface scattering.
 
There is a pretty strong japanese indie scene on steam and in japan as well.

I wonder why we aren't seeing things like crimson clover and Astebreed on PS4 yet?
 
Console and mobile gaming will merge.
android home consoles that feature better graphics and features of games compared to their mobile counterparts.

there's too much fragmentation for this to ever be the case. This is the same as saying PCs will take over, there's too much confusion about what does what and how something runs on one and not the other and OS versions and updates.

There's a reason the PS4 is selling well, because it's a no nonsense, minimal hassle option to play modern games on a tv.
 
All of them went after that market, heavily, for years.

Well, until it was obvious that the audience left and that market had collapsed, sure.

They just got their asses beat, again for years

In what world was this?

console-sales-predictions-2013.png

Chart is from 2013, put together by the Economist. It wasn't Sony or Microsoft "getting their asses beat" after 2010- that was Nintendo. Even prior to that in 2008-2009, Sony and MS had YOY increases in hardware sales while the Wii was in freefall.

- because they all wanted to pump out some crap to cash in and make a quick buck instead of actually learning to cater to a broad demographic - and then retreated back to their HD pillow forts when they realized that the competitive advantage of being the rich guys who can get better production values wasn't ever going to do them much good in a market that didn't generally give a shit whether or not you were using facial mo-cap and subsurface scattering.

again, not exactly fair. Sony's first party, especially in the latter half of the PS3's lifespan was fantastic. We got plenty of innovative games that weren't about eye candy and "facial mo-cap."
 
Consoles died post GameCube Generation. The collapse of the midtier publisher was a huge hit to the console market. We are now flooded with cookie cutter games that predominetly fall within three, maybe four, genres. Sequelitius has always been a problem in the industry but I think it's worse now than ever before. Indie gaming and arcade gaming does not fill the void because often times the pool of games only a few are standout successes, and developers don't seem to make enough money to generate long standing IPs that transcend generations or even make a cultural impact. Coincide that with the loss of the handheld market which often homed a lot of experimental and supplemental games to boost existing brands leaves mega publishers putting major bets on a one shot pony. If it has disappointing financial results, the IP is retooled or shelved, and the developer often is farmed out or shut down entirely.

Agree and consoles turning to indie games to patch the midtier gap is a sign that things are not going well. Also there are now more multi-platform games than ever before. The exclusivity in games in one or more genres was what defined consoles of the previous generations and helped boost sales. But now it is even more difficult to maintain exclusivity due to the involved financial losses or without some major publisher's backing.

Arcade games fill the void only in Japan, helped by the unique market and infrastructure there.
 
Well, until it was obvious that the audience left and that market had collapsed, sure.

In what world was this?

Chart is from 2013, put together by the Economist. It wasn't Sony or Microsoft "getting their asses beat" after 2010- that was Nintendo. Even prior to that in 2008-2009, Sony and MS had YOY increases in hardware sales while the Wii was in freefall.
You're bad at context. Let me try again:
All of them (THIS REFERS TO BIG THIRD PARTY PUBLISHERS IN ADDITION TO THE SOFTWARE OUTPUT OF HARDWARE MANUFACTURERS went after that market, heavily, for years. They just got their asses beat IN THAT MARKET, again for years



again, not exactly fair. Sony's first party, especially in the latter half of the PS3's lifespan was fantastic. We got plenty of innovative games that weren't about eye candy and "facial mo-cap."

I can think of... Tokyo Jungle, annnnd... Journey I guess? Nothing else fits that description from 2010 onward, unless Wikipedia is missing entries.
 
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