Sony FY2015 Q1 (PS4: 3.0m shipped) PS4 total = 25.3m shipped worldwide
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
I think it needs to be closer to 35 million shipped by the end of the year if they want to meet their forecast of 38.8 million by the end of March 2016. So basically ship 10 million from June to December. It's totally doable.
Here is my PlayStation 4 forecast for calendar year 2015.
I originally created the forecast in January 2015, I recently updated the forecast in July 2015 (before these results) to scale down the cumulative total from 36.1m to 35.1m. I am very confident that the actual total will be within these two numbers now.
On the left hand side you see my estimate per quarter/total. On the right hand side you see the actuals.
Here is my forecast from CY2014. As you can see, I pride myself on having very accurate foresight as I create my forecasts before any numbers for the calendar year are released. In the chart both above and below the figures were all posted by myself before Sony released any forecasts or we had 2014/15 sales.
Of course I'm not saying I'm 100% accurate, whilst I believe the chart below is accurate today, it may be horrifically wrong in the next few years. As of course the further I go out the higher the chance of inaccuracy.
I originally created the forecast in January 2015, I recently updated the forecast in July 2015 (before these results) to scale down the cumulative total from 36.1m to 35.1m. I am very confident that the actual total will be within these two numbers now.
On the left hand side you see my estimate per quarter/total. On the right hand side you see the actuals.
Here is my forecast from CY2014. As you can see, I pride myself on having very accurate foresight as I create my forecasts before any numbers for the calendar year are released. In the chart both above and below the figures were all posted by myself before Sony released any forecasts or we had 2014/15 sales.
Of course I'm not saying I'm 100% accurate, whilst I believe the chart below is accurate today, it may be horrifically wrong in the next few years. As of course the further I go out the higher the chance of inaccuracy.
Here is my PlayStation 4 forecast for calendar year 2015.
I originally created the forecast in January 2015, I recently updated the forecast in July 2015 (before these results) to scale down the cumulative total from 36.1m to 35.1m. I am very confident that the actual total will be within these two numbers now.
On the left hand side you see my estimate per quarter/total. On the right hand side you see the actuals.
Here is my forecast from CY2014. As you can see, I pride myself on having very accurate foresight as I create my forecasts before any numbers for the calendar year are released. In the chart both above and below the figures were all posted by myself before Sony released any forecasts or we had 2014/15 sales.
Of course I'm not saying I'm 100% accurate, whilst I believe the chart below is accurate today, it may be horrifically wrong in the next few years. As of course the further I go out the higher the chance of inaccuracy.
Bless you, Zhuge, for your tireless work and craft of statistics.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I am always impress with how Zhuge wipe out these new graphs every thread lol .
Still i see PS4 selling more and X1 selling less.
For Sony it just depends on how well they do there price cuts .
Still i see PS4 selling more and X1 selling less.
For Sony it just depends on how well they do there price cuts .
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Christmas is going to be very interesting to watch unfold. It's likely Xbox will see a good boost in sales thanks to it's strong line up of exclusives but how much of a difference will it really make now?
Sony has already proven that exclusives don't matter as much this gen, despite Xbox having stronger exclusives since launch, it's not really helped them and Sony have just smashed it out the park, relying mostly on solid 3rd party support and fewer exclusives (some of which have been disappointing by Sony's normal standards)
Unless Sony make some massive balls up, it's likely they will stay comfortably in the lead this gen with their extremely solid line up of games coming in 2016 and they haven't even played the price drop card yet.
Sony has already proven that exclusives don't matter as much this gen, despite Xbox having stronger exclusives since launch, it's not really helped them and Sony have just smashed it out the park, relying mostly on solid 3rd party support and fewer exclusives (some of which have been disappointing by Sony's normal standards)
Unless Sony make some massive balls up, it's likely they will stay comfortably in the lead this gen with their extremely solid line up of games coming in 2016 and they haven't even played the price drop card yet.
I keep seeing people post this. What exclusives are those?
Lion Heart
Banned
Amazing numbers. Sony please drop the price to $299, I'd love to see the reaction is causes.
It's called opinions man. You're not supposed to take those types of post seriously lol
gundamkyoukai
Member
People like saying that but numbers show others wise .
Funny enough KZSF is the best sell exclusive (last time i check) well at least until halo comes out .
People still think that MS exclusives sell higher than Sony but that is what happens when you only look at NA last gen .
I'm probably being a pain in the ass, but is there any chance you could create a chart of your projections for PS4 through the generation in comparison to the actual results for the 360 and PS2 in a similar format?
I feel like it might be interesting to compare to the previous best efforts for both Sony and Microsoft.
It seems to me more like Sony is more willing to take their time on exclusives since the PS4 is doing so well. I'm sure the higher ups were a little disappointed that ND delayed Uncharted 4, but aren't worried.
#ARROGANTSONYISBACK
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Forza 5, Forza Horizon 2, Sunset Overdrive, Dead Rising 3, Halo Collection, Killer Instinct to name a few.
Most people agree that MS had stronger exclusives so far, as Sony's exclusives have been good but definitely not up to the standard they put out on PS3, and some have been a bit poor too.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Most people say other wise since the PS4 has sold more .
The same can be said for the game sales .
BB, DC, ISS, TLOUR all over million once again NA is not the world .
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Yeah it was disappointing but I'm glad they have taken their time too especially after a few not so good games like Knack and The Order.
2016 is gonna be a hell of a year for PS4 exclusives now though.
Metalingus5150
Member
Bloodborne tho.
Dat Bloodborne tho
LiquidSolid
Member
Same guy starting it too. Gotta love it when juniors put their balls on the line.
Thread is too big right now, just wanted to respond to these early posts...
Amazing when you think about it.
This is insane. But hey...consoles are dying right? Yea its a long race and anything could happen between now and next gen. For one a shorter gen could happen this time. Still....madness.
Amazing when you think about it.
This is insane. But hey...consoles are dying right? Yea its a long race and anything could happen between now and next gen. For one a shorter gen could happen this time. Still....madness.
Most people agree that PS4's are slightly stronger so far, XB's will be stronger for about 3 months, and then PS4's will be stronger again next year.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Sales don't mean a game is better though, two completely different things, more successful sure, but game quality is not determined by sales.
Forza Horizon 2 was much better than DriveClub at launch yet DriveClub outsold it. Luckily Evo did fix DC to make it a great game.
FF Seraphim
Member
ZhugeEX, what timeframe would you give for the PS4 to break the 100 million sales?
It all depends on your perspective. I find Toukiden, Bloodborne, Driveclub, Guilty Gear, along with Infamous to be a better sell. But that's only because i personally love Japanese games, and MS's stable franchises i got enough of last gen on 360.
But in general, it just depends on the person your asking. I don't think that "MS has better exclusives" is right objectively, and saying they have more in terms of number is also incorrect.
Just drop the exclusive games things.
Although it should be added to the bingo card.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Citation needed. That is a matter of your opinion. You do not speak for everyone else.
Omnistalgic
Member
I think they'll hit there targets because of UC4 and SFV Q1 next year. Both will no doubt be bundled. And both will no doubt move a nice amount of hardware. Morpheus is still a wild card.
It's all subjective (personally I prefer the PS4 outting overall). But if we really want to go that way, there's only been one new AAA retail exclusive between PS4 and XB1 that's "universal acclaim" (90+ MC), and guess what?
Bl@de
Member
Yep same here. Bloodborne is more worth to me then all Xbox 360/One exclusives combined. I've playing japanese games since the PS1 and Microsoft doesn't do anything to convince me of their system. But that seems to be normal here in Germany^^ But I'm glad that "most people agree..."^^
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Of course it's all subjective, I personally love the PS4 lineup too and Bloodborne is probably the best console exclusive but a lot of people would probably say Xbox exclusives have been more consistent in quality compared to Sony's hit or miss games so far.
This year I believe we'll see the Xbox One stay at the $349 price point as an RRP for the holiday season. Microsoft have already dropped the price $150 since launch and whilst it's helped them in the USA during the holiday season, it hasn't much helped them in the US in 2015 or worldwide..... since forever.
I don't think Microsoft will be looking to de-value the console even more, and I don't think they're prepared to have another holiday season where they lose money thanks to another price cut. Microsoft know they have some fairly big hitters like Halo 5 coming out this year and so I am of the opinion that Microsoft will not drop the price (outside of special one off/retailer specific deals) this calendar year. The official price will remain $349.
What I believe Microsoft will do is in a similar fashion to their strategy during 2009 with the Xbox 360. If you remember, Microsoft kept the price the same but bundled in two games at retail. This year I believe we'll see Microsoft start to add value to their proposition by creating more bundles aimed around the $349 and $399 price points with games and perhaps even Xbox Live bundled in at no extra cost to the user.
I made a similar post before about the PlayStation 4 but will now expand. During the PlayStation 2 era Sony had a strategy that was all about being the market leader to show that the PS2 was continuing on from the success of PS1 and that video games were serious business. The PlayStation 2 launched at a low price of $299 and Sony's strategy was to subsidise the console in favour of making bank on software. What this meant was that Sony were more willing to drop the price $100 in May 2002 in order to increase the install base at the detriment of hardware revenue as they knew software revenue would make up the difference.
The gaming landscape has changed recently and from the evidence at hand we can see that the majority of the console gaming market is being driven by early adoptors, hardcore gamers and core gamers. Sony are taking advantage of this with their new strategy, first they got everything right about the console, then they priced it lower than their competitor at a good entry price, third they've been the cumulative leader this gen.
What that means is that Sony's strategy is very much about making a profit both on hardware and software which is very different compared to the PS2 strategy of the time. This is the longest Sony have ever gone without a price drop and that's because the console is still selling very well. They could have done this strategy with the PS2 and it would have done well but with PS2 they were more than happy to sacrifice hardware revenue for a higher install base. With PS4, Sony would prefer to increase hardware revenue, and it's clear that they can with PS4.
We rarely see consoles go this long without a price cut and the only others I can think of that have gone this long were the Wii and Wii U but they are special circumstance really. When it comes to a PS4 price cut I am of the opinion that a price cut must and will take place before the Morpheus launch. Sony will also need to weigh up their options as to whether that price cut will take place before Morpheus launch in 2016 or if they are willing to cut the price in 2015 because it is a hit they can take/have planned for or even will still remain profitable.
This year I am of the opinion that we will see a price cut in order for Sony to open the console up to a new audience and to increase the install base. However I am not sure if it will be a $50 or $100 price cut and whether it will even be temporary during the holiday or permanent. However, Sony do not need to cut the price either and I can very much see them holding back this year and taking the same strategy I mentioned above of Microsoft in 2009. Bundle the crap out of PS4 at the same $399 price point and we are already seeing that with the Destiny bundle.
So Sony really can go both ways here and to be honest they probably don't need to drop the price as the PS4 is doing just fine, however I do think it's time and we will see some sort of price drop this year, at the very least we'll see loads of bundles at $399 with extra value adds.
Too early to say anything on that. No comment.
Can you PM me this so I have it in my inbox as a reminder and If I get time I'll do it. Sorry, bit busy this evening.
Mikey Jr.
Member
Sony has the luxury right now of not having to force their Devs to push out a game if it's not ready.
Uncharted 4 could have been forced out this holiday, but ps4 is riding high on sales. Nd said they needed more time, so I'm sure there was no rush.
I'm sure that goes for all Sony Devs.
I'm of the belief that the game should come out when ready. Not come out because "holiday sales!!!" or "Sony has no games!" list wars.
I can gladly wait for last guardian, uncharted 4, horizon!!, dreams, SP game, bend game, monica game, etc etc. Just make them the best they can be.
Surprisingly, the PS4 is receiving better Japanese 3rd party support in the PS4's second year than the PS3 has in which Japanese 3rd party support didn't really take off for that console until 2010 or 2011.
That's big news for Sony. Now whenever they do a price cut, it will really decimate everyone.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Dat Bloodborne tho
Bloodborne doesn't count because holidays and reasons.
Preach it brother!
gundamkyoukai
Member
That is all subjective what is not subjective is sales numbers.
And games selling more is one way to show people enjoy those game or they are good quality to them .
Either way it only the biggest exclusives that really more hardware or having a certain genre to your self ( for Sony Japanese games.)
MaximusPayne
Member
Am I not understanding something...what is the infatuation with Sony?
Please let's not start with the list wars. We know you don't like the exclusives and/or choose to ignore some. Has it been pointed out before "Sony has already proven that exclusives don't matter as much this gen" is not true because they haven't matter as much either in other gens in comparison to third party's at large.
Also you're not the all deciding judge of a game's quality. That's down to personal opinions.
Also you're not the all deciding judge of a game's quality. That's down to personal opinions.
All the advertisement is true. It is the best place to play!!111111
Here's a wild guess: The PS4.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Games.
Devilgunman
Member
PS4.
MaximusPayne
Member
What about it?