Bernie Sanders Surges to First Place in New Hampshire Primary Polling

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I can't tell if people are into Bernie just cause it's almost a hipster-y thing to be a part of, to go against the mainstream and vote for this underdog just on the fact that he's unlikely to win.
 
I can't tell if people are into Bernie just cause it's almost a hipster-y thing to be a part of, to go against the mainstream and vote for this underdog just on the fact that he's unlikely to win.

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The people that are interested in this shit this early are actually interested. Those that vote for Jill Stein in 2012 (like me) are just doing it to feel god.
 

Kettch

Member
Not at all. During the last Democrat Primaries, Independent voters accounted for 41% of the total turnout. If anything, their sampling is consistent with NH voting patterns.

You guys are in serious denial. Relax, is just one state.

Nice job finding those numbers. I was having trouble locating Democrat primary stats, but there were plenty of Republican ones, like here from 2012, where independents made up 45% of the vote. So this seems pretty consistent.
 
Bernie vs. The Donald would actually be the best and most interesting Presidential election in my lifetime.

I hope the voters can make it happen, both parties have extensive measures in place to ensure their 'anointed' candidate is nominated and not the one voters might actually vote for.
 

Hexa

Member
Trump vs Sanders would be glorious. The greatest election of all time.
Jeb vs Hillary would be the most boring election of all time. Fuck that.
 

nib95

Banned
Bernie vs. The Donald would actually be the best and most interesting Presidential election in my lifetime.

I hope the voters can make it happen, both parties have extensive measures in place to ensure their 'anointed' candidate is nominated and not the one voters might actually vote for.

The fate of your country isn't a TV show or football game. It's an immensely important and serious thing, with huge ramifications and consequences. It being entertaining is not and should not be the primary concern, rather it's about getting the two best candidates running. Or for me personally, about doing the utmost to ensure the Republicans don't win.
 

lednerg

Member
Only in lip service. Not like she'd be different in actual presidency, and not when half the country is loony toons level of right wing.

It's not just about this election, it's about shifting the conversation and tackling issues which the Dems have ignored for too long. Democratic voters are tired of being represented by center-right sellouts. The DNC's strategy of being as moderate and safe as possible is ill-advised. When Obama started standing up to the GOP last December, his approval ratings saw a huge bump which hasn't gone down. And here we have one of the most left-leaning candidates ever drawing massive crowds around the country. The DNC needs to quit being so afraid to support actual progressive candidates and policies.
 

shrek

Banned
The fate of your country isn't a TV show or football game. It's an immensely important and serious thing, with huge ramifications and consequences. It being entertaining is not and should not be the primary concern, rather it's about getting the two best candidates running. Or for me personally, about doing the utmost to ensure the Republicans don't win.

Trump being the nominee would accomplish your personal goal.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Now that's an odd combination.

I am all about individual liberty and was raised in a family that is ultra conservative, albeit of the educated kind (most members of my family have degrees, are professionals, etc.) We were raised on the value of hard work and honesty.

As I was taught at an early age, the Republican party was all about individual freedom and being rewarded for hard work, intelligence, dedication and so on. Of course I would want to be a Republican...

As I grew up, I began to realize that the Republican party does not espouse those ideals at all. Instead, it endorses anti-intellectualism, greed, incentivizes the wealthy to exploit the poor, redlines the poor and minorities that it should protect, restricts individual freedom, etc. I would vote for a Republican candidate all day who would have the courage to stand up to the party and save it from itself, but that is not going to happen as long as the party actively caters to inane and detrimental policies, and continues to focus on catering to the same voters who actively vote against their own best interests.

The green party endorses most of the policies I believe in. Last presidential term, Obama was still Obummer (in bed with cronies, weak on individual rights, targeting Americans without habeas corpus, drone strikes and deportations and a level unseen in history, etc.) and Romney was a fake Mormon politician (I myself am Mormon and we are taught, above all things, that Charity is the pure love of Christ and my favorite scriptures directly condemn those that refuse to help the poor and elderly. Romney's policies, at least during his campaign, would directly affect the poor and elderly to their detriment) and I could not in good conscience vote for him.

Jill Stein had my vote all the way. Bernie Sanders is the most realistic Green Party-esque candidate ever. If he gets he nod, I would actively campaign amongst friends and family for them to vote that way, even if many are still Republicans and probably wouldn't give much thought as to where their vote would go.
 
http://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/631332644295413760

"God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez"

http://twitter.com/DKElections/status/631327759059562496

"Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world"


They were making polls as back as 2004 Democratic Primaries.

And Nate Silvers have them with a C- (not a great grade, of course, but just one and two grades below Gallup and Harvard University, respectively)


I can't tell if people are into Bernie just cause it's almost a hipster-y thing to be a part of, to go against the mainstream and vote for this underdog just on the fact that he's unlikely to win.

I think you are just poorly informed not only of why Sanders has the appeal he has, but of politics in general.
 

Frog-fu

Banned
The American people should flock to Sanders for the simple fact he doesn't have or want a PAC and is a socialist with a stellar record.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
He is as serious as any other candidate not named Hillary Clinton. If there were a real reason for her to not get the nomination, say for scandal, health, or whatever else, he would be as likely as any other to win the nomination.

The whole "He has not shot" shit needs to stop.
 

Knoxcore

Member
Bernie will win NH. I guarantee it. His homestate is right next door. Bill Bradley lost the state by 4 points to Gore in 2000.
 
He is as serious as any other candidate not named Hillary Clinton. If there were a real reason for her to not get the nomination, say for scandal, health, or whatever else, he would be as likely as any other to win the nomination.

The whole "He has not shot" shit needs to stop.

If something happened to Hillary's campaign in the next few weeks, and Joe Biden took up the mantle of "big-name Democrat", I think he'd clean Bernie's clock. Until recently, he was polling ahead of Bernie without even having announced himself as running.
 

Knoxcore

Member
Looking through the tables it looks like they polled a lot of independents. I have a hard time believing that many independents will show up to polls for the democratic primary.

The numbers are very interesting. Sanders leads with Independents 57 to 35. While Clinton leads with Democrats 38 to 34. I expected these numbers to to flipped given 2008. But it seems Bernie is bringing in whole different type of Independents. Far left Independents.
 

gogosox82

Member
Hmm. That's an awfully big jump no? He was down 5 points to Hilary 2 weeks ago and now he's up 8 points. 13 point swing in two weeks and there's been no real controversy for Hilary or Bernie. Sorry gonna call bs on the poll as much as I support Bernie. I do think he will probably win NH though. Vermont is next to NH and he's been closing that gap for months now.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
I remember during the last Canadian federal election the New Democratic Party (left wing party) shot up in popularity to the likes of that which they had never seen before. Before that, my mother used to say "I want to vote for the NDP but they never win". And she had a point, considering that we had a Conservative government in power. However, in the span of a few months before the election, they went from being a party without a chance at forming government to becoming the official opposition for the first time in the party's history.

There is only a chance when you try.
 
Bernie will win NH. I guarantee it. His homestate is right next door. Bill Bradley lost the state by 4 points to Gore in 2000.
There's a write-up on this on FiveThirtyEight. Essentially he can plausible win Iowa and NH and lose everywhere else.

These two early primary states just fit very well with the demographics that Sanders is currently appealing well too; to quote a pollster for the failed Dean candidacy "The Bernie Sanders voter is still a Volvo-driving, financially comfortable liberal who is pretty much white." Crosstabs in larger polls support this notion (Sanders performs better with people who identify as 18-29 and 65+s in terms of age, white, liberal, 80+ income bracket). And outside of Vermont, which he would also likely win, these two states have the largest proportional block of white liberals among the Democratic voting base.

What Sanders needs if he is to mount a serious challenge is to draw a broader coalition of support. If he begins to eat away at Clinton's support amongst minority voters then she has greater cause for concern.
 

Neo C.

Member
The fate of your country isn't a TV show or football game. It's an immensely important and serious thing, with huge ramifications and consequences. It being entertaining is not and should not be the primary concern, rather it's about getting the two best candidates running. Or for me personally, about doing the utmost to ensure the Republicans don't win.

Even from a political perspective, Sanders vs. Trump would be the best. The republican candidates are so terrible that Trump is the most moderate of the bunch. It's sad but true.
 

Foffy

Banned
The American people should flock to Sanders for the simple fact he doesn't have or want a PAC and is a socialist with a stellar record.

This would be great if the psychological and social ego this culture has identified with isn't something that sees all of these things as sincere ills.

People would rather have an insoluble status quo or someone who's "personality is relatable" than someone who is talking and trying to solve issues. We will get what we deserve with our attitudes: an oligarchy (Hillary) or regression with oligarchy (any Republican nominee).
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
As more people hear about Bernie Sanders, i expect this to become the norm around the country.

Bernie's major problem so far from virtually every issue that's popped up, from BLM to the average voter, is that he was relatively unknown until 2 or 3 months ago.

People don't know his platform, his record, or even who he is. But they do know Hillary, and that's why she's winning by default.

There's some time to change that.

As a black male, i feel it is absolutely imperative that we stick with Bernie if we say we care about civil rights in this country.
 

soleil

Banned
Even as a Bernie supporter I think this is an outlier... BUT, even outliers will only be so far from the real numbers. Still a good sign, but he's probably not leading yet.

As far as "If everyone who like Sanders voted for him" thought, I think that he might still lose even if everyone who liked him voted for him. BUT, I think all those people should vote for him anyway, because it MATTERS whether he loses by 5 points versus, say, 20 points. It makes a statement for future elections about the viability of a self-described socialist.
 

AniHawk

Member
Even as a Bernie supporter I think this is an outlier... BUT, even outliers will only be so far from the real numbers. Still a good sign, but he's probably not leading yet.

As far as "If everyone who like Sanders voted for him" thought, I think that he might still lose even if everyone who liked him voted for him. BUT, I think all those people should vote for him anyway, because it MATTERS whether he loses by 5 points versus, say, 20 points. It makes a statement for future elections about the viability of a self-described socialist.

i get that. i think it'll happen anyway. i think the younger generations (those born in the 80s and later) don't give a shit about what the cold war was or the terminology related to it. honestly i think 2016 is a battle for the supreme court. ginsburg, scalia, and kennedy are all probably set to retire some time before 2020.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Also, i hate this narrative that "well bernie isnt going to win but atleast it'll shift the democrats to the left!"

That's ridiculous. Hillary has been parroting what people want to hear for ages. She's been saying she's against corporate greed even while taking money under the table(and even over the table by the amount of private 'fundraisers' she does) from virtually every donor and special interest out there out there.

All she is going to do is put out a sell job and then renege the second she gets into office, and the DNC will follow her.

This is the absolute last time we can say we have a shot at having anyone who is remotely serious about getting money out of politics in a real position to influence our political process.
 
Re-posting:


Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD 2h2 hours ago
Sam Wang retweeted Joe Battenfeld
God, you people are saps. First poll from this organization in six years, no track record, outlier data point. Geez.

Daily Kos Elections ‏@DKElections 2h2 hours ago
Franklin Pierce's poll was conducted by R. Kelly Myers, who used to run UNH, one of the worst pollsters in the world https://www.linkedin.com/in/rkellymyers

Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD 2h2 hours ago
Sam Wang retweeted Boston Herald
Wait. For. A. Second. Poll. Also...Chaffee misspelled and at negative 1. Don't let him touch Webb. Might annihilate.

NEGATIVE ONE IN A POLL. LOLOLOLOL


I'm gonna go with Sam Wang on this one and assume it's a trash poll by a KNOWN TRASH pollster until other data points confirm this poll as reasonable.

Is just one poll. The scrutiny this ONE POLL is getting seems hilarious to me. As if people should not even mention it or the media shouldnt report on it just because "we have to wait for more polls!"

The problem is this one poll is likely bunk based on both the pollster's history and 6 year absence and the actual results (how does someone get -1 in a poll?) . And the bigger problem is that people are going to actually report it and use it as evidence of Bernie's supposed lead.

Let me remind you, I'd probably prefer Bernie over Hillary in a vaccum. I'm not trying to put him down. But this poll is likely worth whatever we wipe our asses with each day.

And no, I'm not unskewing anything. I'm not trying to change numbers. I'm saying there's a big likelihood this pollster doesn't know how to conduct a poll. And we know this based on his track record of being very bad at polling.


edit: to clarify, the poll is NOT an outlier. Outliers are GOOD polls where 1/20 of the time randomness causes a bad result. The above is probably not that.


Don't mean to burst anyone's bubbles, but sorry, this is likely just a shitty poll done by a known hack pollster. I wouldn't mind Bernie leading in NH. I'm not trying to throw out this poll because I want Hillary to be ahead. I just don't like people jumping onto polls that are likely improperly done.
 
I'm a Clinton supporter. I actually have that Yaaas Hillary shirt. This poll looks questionable to me. Having said that, I fully expect Sanders to win New Hampshire. He's a senator from a neighboring state. The state is overwhelmingly white. It plays to his strengths. Having said that, delegates are awarded proportionally. A result like this would net both candidates similar delegates. After Iowa and New Hampshire, the map no longer favors Sanders. South Carolina band Nevada will give him strong loses, and Hillary can rid that into Super Tuesday. Super delegates will not abandon Clinton for Sanders.
 

Miracle

Member
Also, i hate this narrative that "well bernie isnt going to win but atleast it'll shift the democrats to the left!"

That's ridiculous. Hillary has been parroting what people want to hear for ages. She's been saying she's against corporate greed even while taking money under the table(and even over the table by the amount of private 'fundraisers' she does) from virtually every donor and special interest out there out there.

All she is going to do is put out a sell job and then renege the second she gets into office, and the DNC will follow her.

This is the absolute last time we can say we have a shot at having anyone who is remotely serious about getting money out of politics in a real position to influence our political process.

I agree. Bernie is my guy as well.

I'm going to go with the optimistic route and say that as long as he sticks to his guns, he should have a good chance of winning the nomination. This is one of those rare times where we could see a person we actually want to run the office be the candidate instead of choosing one of the two lesser evils again.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
I agree. Bernie is my guy as well.

I'm going to go with the optimistic route and say that as long as he sticks to his guns, he should have a good chance of winning the nomination. This is one of those rare times where we could see a person we actually want to run the office be the candidate instead of choosing one of the two lesser evils again.

I no longer see it as a lesser of two evils. I see it as a war for an answer to that question. Do the big money interests who hold the power control the political process or do i?

Whether you pick any republican or Hillary, they are taking super pac money and denoting to private corps regardless for their causes.

By definition, it is contradictory to any message they attempt to sell to the citizenry about how much they care about the common citizen over "business as usual". As long as you defer to business as usual tactics,(or rather business that has become the usual), you are part of the problem and do not deserve support.

It doesn't matter what you say you stand for in the campaign if your record says otherwise. It essentially makes your statements meaningless
 

gdt

Member
I have to decide if I want to vote for Bernie or Hillary in the primary. Bernie is like a dream candidate but I'm my sure he'd win.

But Hillary is the safe choice, she'll stomp all over the republicans. A republican president is the biggest fear IMO.
 
My thing is... Is that 2% difference worth the risk of someone not named Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination and possibly stomping all over a self-declared socialist?
That's assuming the other side is some sort of unified force capable of running a terrific campaign for presidency.

That hasn't happened in quite a while for the republicans.
 

SyNapSe

Member
That would be good because it would pull Hillary to the left and that's good.

No, it's not, that would be terrible. It's exactly why people say the Republicans can't win the GE because to get the nom they have to go really far right to appease their base. Going further right or left just pulls you further away from independents and moderates. Those are the votes you have to win. The people far right or left will generally fall in line and vote for their candidates party once the selection is made.

It's not like anything the candidates say now has much of a bearing on what they do once in office anyway.
 

Servbot24

Banned
Awesome. I'll be sure to vote for him.

At the same time, I kind of fear that it could take a big name like Clinton to beat Trump. I always considered Trump to be a joke candidate, yet he keeps gaining popularity.
 

marrec

Banned
I can't tell if people are into Bernie just cause it's almost a hipster-y thing to be a part of, to go against the mainstream and vote for this underdog just on the fact that he's unlikely to win.

Dems are into Bernie the way that GOP is into Trump.

It's a fleeting relationship that will crumble as the Primaries approach and we have to get serious.
 
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