Bernie Sanders Surges to First Place in New Hampshire Primary Polling

Status
Not open for further replies.

gogosox82

Member
further comparing the Obama and Sanders campaigns

anyone remember the 2004 democratic national convention? we lost bad this year, but remember the keynote speech from the black senator from Illinois? He seemed impossibly young but his rhetoric and internal sense of messaging were polished.

real polished. he wanted it bad (you could tell), and hit every note of that speech and following appearances with the force of real political skill. so too over the next three years. media buzz all the way. then he became president.

where has sanders been? compared to Obama '04-'07, he's a ghost. he does not have the interest Obama had. he will not get within spitting distance of national executive power.

Obama and Sanders are fundamentally different people. Obama was incredibly ambitious to think he could make a run for the white house after becoming the senator from Illinois. Obama had no problem taking money from corporations, including banks. And while Obama had this coalition of voters both young and old that got excited about politics and were ready to work for him, he shunned for traditional, inside the beltway politics and policy thinking.

Sanders, never really had that ambition but he has seen what Citizens' United has done to democracy. Its just all about how much money you have. You get a bunch of money from these superpacs, and run negative ad after negative ad and then you win and in return you give these corporations whatever they want whether than be a government contract, tax breaks, corporate loopholes so they don't have to report how much money they are making. This isn't democracy, its legalized bribery. What Sanders wants is democracy. The issues don't matter as long as we have this system where legalized bribery isn't only the norm but the most effective way of getting your political agenda signed into law. So I would argue that if it wasn't for the Citizens United ruling, Sanders probably wouldn't even be running right now.

So the differences are clear but just because Sanders didn't set up a run for the presidency for years like Obama did, doesn't mean he can't win the presidency. He polls decently against the republicans( and he beats Trump in every poll I've seen so far) and that with no one knowing who he is right now so he has a shot. The problem for him is Hilary, not the republicans. I don't know if he can beat her. Obviously, I'm hoping but its a long shot to beat her.

zCzWLxO.png


Pack it up Clinton, QUEEN is about to leave your ship.

Is Katy Perry into politics?
 
5) Bernie has stated his strategy on how to deal with GOP obstructionism, and that is get the people involved. With the people marching on Washington, the pressure will be on for the GOP support Sanders' policies or risk losing their next reelection run. If you're wondering if this can work, then I offer you this: Without endorsing the content of his policies, I point to Ronald Reagan's strategy of communicating directly with the American people to get a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives to support his radically conservative agenda. Public pressure is a winning strategy. Ask the FCC board after net neutrality activists called their office thousands of times a day until they agreed to recategorize the internet so they could protect net neutrality (after initially announcing there was nothing they could do to help it).

GOP feeling pressure? Their base will be more fired up than ever against virtually anything he proposes, any Republican politician will be sitting pretty. What about that Democrat that barely won in a red state or red district. What does that leave him with?

What an incredibly naive viewpoint. Look no further than the Iran deal to see how it would play out with a Sanders proposal.
 

jtb

Banned
More than any other reason, Obama and Sanders are not comprable at all because Sanders has no path to the nomination, let alone 270.
 
Obama and Sanders are fundamentally different people. Obama was incredibly ambitious to think he could make a run for the white house after becoming the senator from Illinois. Obama had no problem taking money from corporations, including banks. And while Obama had this coalition of voters both young and old that got excited about politics and were ready to work for him, he shunned for traditional, inside the beltway politics and policy thinking.

Sanders, never really had that ambition but he has seen what Citizens' United has done to democracy. Its just all about how much money you have. You get a bunch of money from these superpacs, and run negative ad after negative ad and then you win and in return you give these corporations whatever they want whether than be a government contract, tax breaks, corporate loopholes so they don't have to report how much money they are making. This isn't democracy, its legalized bribery. What Sanders wants is democracy. The issues don't matter as long as we have this system where legalized bribery isn't only the norm but the most effective way of getting your political agenda signed into law. So I would argue that if it wasn't for the Citizens United ruling, Sanders probably wouldn't even be running right now.

So the differences are clear but just because Sanders didn't set up a run for the presidency for years like Obama did, doesn't mean he can't win the presidency. He polls decently against the republicans( and he beats Trump in every poll I've seen so far) and that with no one knowing who he is right now so he has a shot. The problem for him is Hilary, not the republicans. I don't know if he can beat her. Obviously, I'm hoping but its a long shot to beat her.



Is Katy Perry into politics?

I guess so, this is her twitter profile pic:

the tide is about to turn

More than any other reason, Obama and Sanders are not comprable at all because Sanders has no path to the nomination, let alone 270.

Insightful, tell us more.

No, really, why do you think this is the case?
 

Dude Abides

Banned
1) Reducing the office of the President down to only Supreme Court nominations basically means you're admitting that Hillary won't be much different than Republicans on all other fronts.

Nobody is doing that. The argument is that the Supreme Court is too important to take a flyer on a risky candidate like Sanders.

2) Even on the front of the Supreme Court nominations, Hillary's record on the issues has been more conservative than liberal (proponent of repealing Glass-Steagall, tough on crime policies, oppose gay marriage until public opinion made it politically bad to keep opposing it, etc). There's no guarantee her nominations would be liberal.

Every Democractic president has appointed liberal justices. Those policies were Bill Clinton's. Bill Clinton appointed Ginsburg and Breyer, two liberals.

3) If for some reason she actually did nominate liberal nominees, she would have to get them ratified by the same GOP Congress (Senate, specifically) that you are saying will stop Bernie from doing anything. Kind of odd how GOP obstructionism is a talking point with Bernie, but with Hillary we conveniently forget it exists.

Obstructionism generally works differently with SC and other appointments than with legislation. That's the whole nuclear option issue.

5) Bernie has stated his strategy on how to deal with GOP obstructionism, and that is get the people involved. With the people marching on Washington, the pressure will be on for the GOP support Sanders' policies or risk losing their next reelection run. If you're wondering if this can work, then I offer you this: Without endorsing the content of his policies, I point to Ronald Reagan's strategy of communicating directly with the American people to get a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives to support his radically conservative agenda. Public pressure is a winning strategy. Ask the FCC board after net neutrality activists called their office thousands of times a day until they agreed to recategorize the internet so they could protect net neutrality (after initially announcing there was nothing they could do to help it).

That's what Obama said he was going to do as well and we see how well that works. There's no reason to think Sanders would be any more successful.
 

reckless

Member
1) Reducing the office of the President down to only Supreme Court nominations basically means you're admitting that Hillary won't be much different than Republicans on all other fronts.
No, its saying that no matter who is elected President, Congress is still controlled by Republicans with the power to stop most campaign promises from happening.
2) Even on the front of the Supreme Court nominations, Hillary's record on the issues has been more conservative than liberal (proponent of repealing Glass-Steagall, tough on crime policies, oppose gay marriage until public opinion made it politically bad to keep opposing it, etc). There's no guarantee her nominations would be liberal.
No matter what her nominations would be better then who a Republican president would be nominating and that's almost certainly what we are going to get if Bernie wins the primaries.
3) If for some reason she actually did nominate liberal nominees, she would have to get them ratified by the same GOP Congress (Senate, specifically) that you are saying will stop Bernie from doing anything. Kind of odd how GOP obstructionism is a talking point with Bernie, but with Hillary we conveniently forget it exists.
Obstructing SCOTUS from getting filled seems like political suicide, stopping Bernie from bringing a $15 minimum wage is not. The obstructionism is mostly about stopping laws.
4) If you actually look up Bernie's track record, you'll see he works well with Republicans and Senate GOP members view him as pragmatic and result-oriented.
That was a different time, the Republicans nowadays are all about obstructionism especially if we get a self described socialist in office. The attack ads from the tea party types write themselves.

5) Bernie has stated his strategy on how to deal with GOP obstructionism, and that is get the people involved. With the people marching on Washington, the pressure will be on for the GOP support Sanders' policies or risk losing their next reelection run. If you're wondering if this can work, then I offer you this: Without endorsing the content of his policies, I point to Ronald Reagan's strategy of communicating directly with the American people to get a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives to support his radically conservative agenda. Public pressure is a winning strategy. Ask the FCC board after net neutrality activists called their office thousands of times a day until they agreed to recategorize the internet so they could protect net neutrality (after initially announcing there was nothing they could do to help it).
You drastically overestimate how liberal American's are and how invested we are in politics. What is more likely to happen is pretty much a lame duck president, and many people on the left becoming disenfranchised to politics in 4 years when practically nothing has changed.
 

jtb

Banned
National pressure is irrelevant when states and congressional districts exist—these representatives have a built in incentive not to break party lines, not only because of the GOP party infrastructure and the internal ramifications of crossing the party, but because that's exactly what got them elected in the first place. Their own constituents would drop them far sooner than the party would.
 

tanooki27

Member
soleil's point about supporting a candidate for the civic satisfaction of materializing (voting) your convictions is real and valid. it's a great thing about democracy.

but I think it's important to note he also mentions not expecting his vote to produce victory for his candidate or his party. he understands the realities of the decision he's making in this regard, and that's a crucial distinction.

a vote for principle; a vote for victory. shame they seem to be so diametrically opposed these days.

in whatever way you choose, take care of your vote.
 
soleil's point about supporting a candidate for the civic satisfaction of materializing (voting) your convictions is real and valid. it's a great thing about democracy.

but I think it's important to note he also mentions not expecting his vote to produce victory for his candidate or his party. he understands the realities of the decision he's making in this regard, and that's a crucial distinction.

a vote for principle; a vote for victory. shame they seem to be so diametrically opposed these days.

in whatever way you choose, take care of your vote.

All I know is the justification in point #5 is so naive it almost makes you wonder if this person had been following politics at all in the last 7 years, or even the last 7 days when you look at the Iran deal.
 

down 2 orth

Member
Source? Most of these "powerful" Democrats who supported Obama last time are with her this time. She has won the "invisible primary".

David Geffen is the first to come to mind, he's voiced his dislike of them on several occasions, even calling them liars. The more telling proof was during the primaries when a lot of the established families and figures like the Kennedys, Kerrys, Harry Reid, and Bill Richardson supported Obama, that it was clear how big a rift there was in the top ranks of the Democrats.
 
A lot of powerful Democrats despise the Clintons and would back any candidate that would stand a chance against her. I can't help but think that many of the people who paved the way to Obama's rise to power would do the same for Bernie if given the chance, and I'm guessing they will.

They sure have a funny way of showing it. This is what it means to be establishment.

I also highly doubt most Democrats in office want to jeopardize their electoral chances by aligning themselves with a self-avowed socialist.
 

dabig2

Member
All I know is the justification in point #5 is so naive it almost makes you wonder if this person had been following politics at all in the last 7 years, or even the last 7 days when you look at the Iran deal.

That's some pretty harsh criticism, so I'd like to know more about what you're saying here. Are you talking about how a large portion now unfavorably views the deal? How does that fit in with Soleil's main point of active populism? There are other issues other than the Iran deal that has shifted the Left's way, which is probably what is he focusing on.
 

Redd

Member
I'd vote for Sanders if he gets the nod. He won't but by some miracle he does then good for him. Just think it's Hillary who will get my vote.

Looking at the Republican side makes me wonder why Romney didn't run again. He would get the Republican nod easily I think.
 
That's some pretty harsh criticism, so I'd like to know more about what you're saying here. Are you talking about how a large portion now unfavorably views the deal? How does that fit in with Soleil's main point of active populism? There are other issues other than the Iran deal that has shifted the Left's way, which is probably what is he focusing on.

I'm talking about how the base of the GOP is 100% unified in their opposition to anything remotely liberal, which means this idea of "pressure" is laughable at best. It's also very easy for them to sway public opinion or ignore it completely. Gun laws, diplomacy in the middle east, tax rates on the wealthy, government spending. All it takes is a few ads targeted towards those middle america moderate independents and it's game over.

The examples are right here in front of us.
 

soleil

Banned
That's some pretty harsh criticism, so I'd like to know more about what you're saying here. Are you talking about how a large portion now unfavorably views the deal? How does that fit in with Soleil's main point of active populism? There are other issues other than the Iran deal that has shifted the Left's way, which is probably what is he focusing on.
I'm not sure I'd bother with him. Ad hominems and narrowing the focus to cherry-picked examples to argue AGAINST efforts to achieve a more democratically functioning society are not exactly the hallmark of a sincere poster. Especially since the Iran deal doesn't have majority support anyway, unlike a lot of Sanders' policies (not every policy of his, but the strong majority). So the Iran deal doesn't even prove his point, which is incorrect anyway.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
I'd vote for Sanders if he gets the nod. He won't but by some miracle he does then good for him. Just think it's Hillary who will get my vote.

Looking at the Republican side makes me wonder why Romney didn't run again. He would get the Republican nod easily I think.

Romney's biggest problem was his personality, so it's possible that no big funders were willing to back him again.
 

gogosox82

Member
All I know is the justification in point #5 is so naive it almost makes you wonder if this person had been following politics at all in the last 7 years, or even the last 7 days when you look at the Iran deal.

I would argue that Obama never really used the bully pulpit as its referred to make his case over the last 7 years. He always was trying to do deals with republicans so he could be seen as bipartisan. The Iran deal is the only real time I can recall Obama using it in any real way.
 

noshten

Member
Romney's biggest problem was his personality, so it's possible that no big funders were willing to back him again.

Soon Hilary will have the same problem, in fact she is like the female version of Romney flip-flopping multimillionaire without an ounce of personality or charisma. She just positions herself whichever way the wind is blowing
 

benjipwns

Banned
But wasn't that the same situation in the 2008 primaries? I could be wrong, but I don't think Obama started picking up major endorsements until after Iowa.
Eyeballing it, Hillary led Obama like 150-50 in endorsement "points" at this point in the cycle. Right now it's 307-0 in Hillary vs. Sanders.

Obama topped out at 330 in 2008.
 
But wasn't that the same situation in the 2008 primaries? I could be wrong, but I don't think Obama started picking up major endorsements until after Iowa.

Obama still had 44 endorsement points, which is 44 more than Bernie does. In any event, this in and of itself does not show that Bernie can't possibly win, but it's certainly another reason to believe that he won't.

I really think Warren should jump in.

Warren jumping in would split the people who would vote Sanders and essentially clinch the nomination for Hilary.
 

down 2 orth

Member
Eyeballing it, Hillary led Obama like 150-50 in endorsement "points" at this point in the cycle. Right now it's 307-0 in Hillary vs. Sanders.

Obama topped out at 330 in 2008.

Well there's no doubt she is the establishment candidate. I don't know what Bernie has to do to win, but I hope he has a fighting chance.
 

HylianTom

Banned
GOP feeling pressure? Their base will be more fired up than ever against virtually anything he proposes, any Republican politician will be sitting pretty. What about that Democrat that barely won in a red state or red district. What does that leave him with?

What an incredibly naive viewpoint. Look no further than the Iran deal to see how it would play out with a Sanders proposal.

{*snaps fingers*}

"Naive" - that's the word I was looking for.

(and you can read the following in Charlie Day's sarcastic "jobby-job" voice if you wish)
So I suppose that as soon as Bernie finishes his swearing-in, the Magical, Splendiferous Fairy of Congressional Cooperation will descend from the heavens, prancing and singing of cooperation and compromise? If we talk to the GOP, and call them on the phone and email them, suuuuurely they'll listen to us and budge, right? And then afterwards, after that hard work is done, we'll allllll hold hands and sing about ponies and unicorns and rainbows.. and maybe even puppies! And ice cream!

C'mon.

Yes. "Naive" is indeed the correct word.
 
Eyeballing it, Hillary led Obama like 150-50 in endorsement "points" at this point in the cycle. Right now it's 307-0 in Hillary vs. Sanders.

Obama topped out at 330 in 2008.

Sanders is not a registered democrat, and he doesnt seem very well networked with representatives, for good or bad.


But hey, Congress is really, REALLY unpopular so the least endorsements the better I guess? lol
 

jtb

Banned
Hillary doesn't just have the most endorsements in the invisible primary of this cycle, she has more than quite a few eventual nominees even after the party convention. (ie. She has as many senator endorsements as GWB did on election day of 2000). FiveThirtyEight says its basically unprecedented for any non-incumbent.

I'm not sure I'd bother with him. Ad hominems and narrowing the focus to cherry-picked examples to argue AGAINST efforts to achieve a more democratically functioning society are not exactly the hallmark of a sincere poster. Especially since the Iran deal doesn't have majority support anyway, unlike a lot of Sanders' policies (not every policy of his, but the strong majority). So the Iran deal doesn't even prove his point, which is incorrect anyway.

The problem is that Congress isn't a nationally representative body—it's inherently undemocratic. That's the point. That's why it exists. Representatives are not going to go against their own party, let alone their own constituents, not when they have every incentive to do the opposite. Even if candidates didn't rely on outside money, the commodity that they will never be able to give up is votes.

Bernie's hypothetical inability to deal with an obstructionist congress is a valid criticism, I think, and a real fear.
 

soleil

Banned
{*snaps fingers*}

"Naive" - that's the word I was looking for.

(and you can read the following in Charlie Day's sarcastic "jobby-job" voice if you wish)
So I suppose that as soon as Bernie finishes his swearing-in, the Magical, Splendiferous Fairy of Congressional Cooperation will descend from the heavens, prancing and singing of cooperation and compromise? If we talk to the GOP, and call them on the phone and email them, suuuuurely they'll listen to us and budge, right? And then afterwards, after that hard work is done, we'll allllll hold hands and sing about ponies and unicorns and rainbows.. and maybe even puppies! And ice cream!

C'mon.

Yes. "Naive" is indeed the correct word.
Naive is believing anything that comes from Hillary's mouth.
 

andycapps

Member
I'm kinda worried about Sanders winning the bid to be honest.

The democrats need someone who isn't afraid to speak louder than Trump. Sanders sounds like someone who "we wish was president" but can he actually lead his way there?

The alternative is more of the same, which is what Hillary represents. I dislike Trump, but what he's doing is interesting in that he's not an establishment politician and that he doesn't need to win. If he loses, he's still a billionaire and has a fallback plan. Most of these politicians are desperate for people like him to fund their campaigns.

Bernie is disruptive to the Democratic party in some of the same ways in that he is very different than Hillary and does not necessarily tow the party line. Again, I hate Trump, but it's interesting for politics when outsiders come in and change the political discussion. Though the political discussion I'm more in favor of is Bernie's.

Can Bernie lead with these policies? He's not going to get everything accomplished that he wants, if he gets elected. But would we be better off and would we get closer to what he wants with Sanders in there or Hillary? That's what you have to ask yourself.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
My thing is... Is that 2% difference worth the risk of someone not named Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination and possibly stomping all over a self-declared socialist?

WHat your misunderstanding is that this is not a disagreement on policy. Many of the policies in that poll are only given to Hillary because she switched to those in recent months when she started campaigning. She doesn't care about a majority of those things and has pretty much said the exact opposite in the past.

Its about whether you want someone who is actually going to fight for what they say they are going to do, and earnestly want to reform the system. Or, whether you want someone who just says what you want to hear to secure your vote.

Its not a hard choice to make.

I love Bernie but man you guys really think a self proclaimed socialist can win the general?

The thought of a republican president and congress scares the shit out of me :/

The entire point is actually educating people about what his definition of a democratic socialist(or rather a social democrat) is along with his policies. Are you going to let corporate ball draggers and conservatives dominate the conversation and just throw out scary sounding terms with no context forever?

All bernie needs to do is repeat what he said here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFAq-4Vv5c0
 
The change you want won't happen unless you vote for the candidate willing to go the distance. I don't think Hillary is the person that we really want and there's no reason to settle. This apathy is why things don't change. No one is going to do it for you, in fact, they are actively working against you. So if you want Bernie, don't settle for Hillary, vote for Bernie. If you want a third party, don't pick either of the big two, pick a third party. It's the settling for who will win that gets us into these situations of picking the lesser of two evils. If everyone voted for the candidate they actually wanted out of the independent parties then the two party system would be broken. You just have to do it.
 

soleil

Banned
Hillary doesn't just have the most endorsements in the invisible primary of this cycle, she has more than quite a few eventual nominees even after the party convention. (ie. She has as many senator endorsements as GWB did on election day of 2000). FiveThirtyEight says its basically unprecedented for any non-incumbent.



The problem is that Congress isn't a nationally representative body—it's inherently undemocratic. That's the point. That's why it exists. Representatives are not going to go against their own party, let alone their own constituents, not when they have every incentive to do the opposite. Even if candidates didn't rely on outside money, the commodity that they will never be able to give up is votes.

Bernie's hypothetical inability to deal with an obstructionist congress is a valid criticism, I think, and a real fear.
I appreciate your mature, non ad hominem argument, which puts you miles above the other posters responding to me. And I agree that it's a valid concern. I'm just saying that 1) it's an equal concern for Hillary, and 2) it's been overcome before. The hyperbole in misrepresenting my argument as a statement that obstructionism won't be a problem at all is a strawman, something that seems lost on some posters here.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The change you want won't happen unless you vote for the candidate willing to go the distance. I don't think Hillary is the person that we really want and there's no reason to settle. This apathy is why things don't change. No one is going to do it for you, in fact, they are actively working against you. So if you want Bernie, don't settle for Hillary, vote for Bernie. If you want a third party, don't pick either of the big two, pick a third party. It's the settling for who will win that gets us into these situations of picking the lesser of two evils. If everyone voted for the candidate they actually wanted out of the independent parties then the two party system would be broken. You just have to do it.

The change you want will actively not happen if you vote for a third party
 

benjipwns

Banned
Sanders is not a registered democrat, and he doesnt seem very well networked with representatives, for good or bad.
Even if he was, if you want to get Administration posts/spoils you don't hitch your wagon to someone like Sanders when there's a Hillary in the race.

That's also why so few national endorsements* in the GOP race. Don't want to put in with the wrong candidate. Similar to 2004's chart where Kerry suddenly sucks them all up in like a week after he becomes the frontrunner overnight.

*State endorsements are quite different, a random Kentucky State Senator backing Rand Paul gets him more in the short-term (i.e. an image or video of him near Paul or some useless post that elevates him in the state party) than backing Jeb! or whoever. I believe Sanders has a decent number of Vermont ones like this.
 

FStubbs

Member
If you want a radical change, start from the bottom up. Get the conservatives out of state houses and county commissions. Then less obstructionists will be in the way.
 

Indicate

Member
Some positive coverage on Bernie from CNN a few minutes ago after the poll release.

CNN Nia-Malika Henderson: "It would not make sense if Hillary Clinton was to run the board and win on all these states"
 
The change you want will actively not happen if you vote for a third party

That's the attitude that sustains the two-party system that people rail against. All I hear is "I really wish we had another option but there's only two parties that will win". Those two parties only win because people vote for them. There's nothing permanent or inevitable about the two parties. They haven't existed since the beginning.
 

jtb

Banned
That's the attitude that sustains the two-party system that people rail against. All I hear is "I really wish we had another option but there's only two parties that will win". Those two parties only win because people vote for them. There's nothing permanent or inevitable about the two parties. They haven't existed since the beginning.

That's factually incorrect. A first past the post system will always lead to a two party system, particularly on the national scale. If you need 50% to win, it makes no sense to split your vote—you have to form the smallest possible coalition that can still win an election. Likewise, if you need 50% to pass legislation in Congress, the easiest way to form voting blocs is along party lines.

The parties can fracture or be replaced, but, really, functionally it's no different from the Democrats and Republicans moving left or right over time.
 

Ecotic

Member
That's the attitude that sustains the two-party system that people rail against. All I hear is "I really wish we had another option but there's only two parties that will win". Those two parties only win because people vote for them. There's nothing permanent or inevitable about the two parties. They haven't existed since the beginning.

First past the post voting system is what perpetuates the two party system, not because people will it into existence by voting. It could only be changed by a constitutional amendment creating a parliamentary system or some other style of government, or an act of Congress maybe.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom