teruterubozu
Member
No, but they know Rick Santorum. lol
Why is Hillary guaranteed to win?
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No, but they know Rick Santorum. lol
Smokey_Run
Member
The average person in the middle of Pennsylvania is probably not going to vote for a Democrat anyway.
But yes, I know what you mean.
EDIT: lol actually Centre County which is in the center of Pennsylvania went for Obama. SO.
Centre County is where Penn State is located. I live in the area and that's why I used the example. I can only speak to where I live.
Unfortunately.
My point was, given the inelasticity of Pennsylvania, I think it's pretty likely that whomever the Democratic candidate was, they'd probably win. Probably.
Dr. Benton Quest
Banned
Stop being divisive. We all want a better America. There's no need to separate liberals into "classes".
You mean gerrymandering and almost unprecedented low voter turnout is some kind of tea party mandate? Get out.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Obama smashed on her in 2008 when she thought she had the nomination locked up.
Nothing is guaranteed.
I would personally never vote for her.
Nothing is guaranteed.
I would personally never vote for her.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
I'd like to introduce to the topic, the possibility of Trump going 3rd party route.
What if it was Walker/Trump/Hilary? Or Cruz/Trump/Sanders? I think there are interesting routes next year that could lead to interesting results.
What if it was Walker/Trump/Hilary? Or Cruz/Trump/Sanders? I think there are interesting routes next year that could lead to interesting results.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Not even in the general?
Most of Bernie's electoral problems can be summed up pretty cleanly by the Alabama primary:
http://wkrg.com/2015/08/12/alabama-republicans-favor-trump-by-wide-margin/
The country looks a lot less like New Hampshire and Iowa voters.
BennyBlanco
aka IMurRIVAL69
She's not. She's just favored to win.
RustyNails
Member
There it is
Unlikely, if not outright impossible.
Obama was the greatest candidate in a generation and one of the greatest of all time.
JoeyJungle
Banned
Different page on fivethirtyeight, but very convincing about Hillary's dominance this election:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/
Obama also had Ted Kennedy and Harry Reid telling him to run and had establishment support early on in a way that allowed him to be competitive.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Hillary even has a chance? Aww...that's cute.
Must be looking at Karl Rove's polling number.
You know you just repeated yourself three times, right?
Have you ever heard of the electoral college?
I think that a lot of democrats don't want the friction they've had in the last few elections so they want as smooth of a road to victory as possible, regardless of the candidate. And Hillary will do.
Even if a better candidate comes along that aligns with their ideals better, they'd rather not risk compromising that less frictional election year to support him.
Even if a better candidate comes along that aligns with their ideals better, they'd rather not risk compromising that less frictional election year to support him.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
But does she personify politics?
Still waiting for someone of independent authority state anything close to this. Even many of her opponents classify this under being careless or bad decision making than criminal conspiracy.
Dr. Benton Quest
Banned
It must be odd living in a conservative bubble. I live in the deep south and I've had people tell me that the American people regretted voting for Obama and he has almost no support anymore (despite the trouncing he gave Romney in his reelection).
I guess if you live in an echo chamber, you might believe things like "Hillary's going to jail" and "She'll stand trial for Benghazi".
They must be flabbergasted when a liberal wins office.
Apparently they also believe in conspiracies:
People who follow elections.
The man who runs the government would like to see her succeed him in office. It aint happening.
titiklabingapat
Member
She is not guaranteed to win, anyone saying otherwise is delusional. The only guarantee in politics is that nothing is guaranteed.
That said, she has the best chance at winning it. Have you seen the GOP clown car? And her biggest threat is a socialist, so.
Trump is a non-starter in the general, he's probably only running now to piss off the GOP establishment.
That said, she has the best chance at winning it. Have you seen the GOP clown car? And her biggest threat is a socialist, so.
Trump is a non-starter in the general, he's probably only running now to piss off the GOP establishment.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Everyone who has any basic insight in American politics?
Then again, I wouldn't say she is guarantied per say. But for the majoirty of people who follow politics and follow trends, her simply being a democrat and having the minority support she has behind her and how the electoral college works, she has a major advantage over and republican.
Black Republican
Member
democrats havent won the white women vote in prez general elections in ages
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
The impeachment is coming any minute now.
Reminder of how friendly Hillary is to minorities:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWRoEpYuHwI
Thish shit looks like it came traight out of a Iannucci show.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWRoEpYuHwI
Thish shit looks like it came traight out of a Iannucci show.
What does this even mean? Has Obama's rocky first term taught people nothing?
There is more to governing then media personality and being able to have a beer with someone. I swear, I used to think liberals prided themselves on not being so vain about their nominees.
Reality has a liberal bias.
No guarantee but a much, much higher probability then anyone else in the current field for either party.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
rofl
Abinash117
Member
Most people here are pretty right.
-The reason she will most likely win is because the demographics back her up and gives her a big advantage over any republican nominee, and the electoral college gives her a advantage as well.
-She is also is capable of raising huge amount of money and the only person that can raise more is Jeb Bush.
-She has very experience group of people working for her and built up a lot of infrastructure.
- When it comes to the general elections more people will start paying attention and because of that she will likely be more acceptable has her democrat policies align with most of the population of nearly every racial group. Republicans on the other have a issue of getting a large portion of the minority vote.
-It is also easier for a Dem to not flip flop on issues.
Personally, I do not know how much she has changed from 2008, but that was 7 years ago and it seems like many people are basing some aspects from that time. It has been claimed that Hillary has learned her lesson based on some things she has done recently, but she has not been campaigning lately so we will see if that is really true or not.
-The reason she will most likely win is because the demographics back her up and gives her a big advantage over any republican nominee, and the electoral college gives her a advantage as well.
-She is also is capable of raising huge amount of money and the only person that can raise more is Jeb Bush.
-She has very experience group of people working for her and built up a lot of infrastructure.
- When it comes to the general elections more people will start paying attention and because of that she will likely be more acceptable has her democrat policies align with most of the population of nearly every racial group. Republicans on the other have a issue of getting a large portion of the minority vote.
-It is also easier for a Dem to not flip flop on issues.
Personally, I do not know how much she has changed from 2008, but that was 7 years ago and it seems like many people are basing some aspects from that time. It has been claimed that Hillary has learned her lesson based on some things she has done recently, but she has not been campaigning lately so we will see if that is really true or not.
Hillary may or may not be inevitable, and I would vote for her in the general, but the attempts to marginalize Sanders and his supporters as " crazies" does not sit right with me.
Not at all.
If Sander's platform were enacted into law, all it would do would be to bring the U.S. into closer alignment with other countries in terms of the robustness of its safety net.
Not at all.
If Sander's platform were enacted into law, all it would do would be to bring the U.S. into closer alignment with other countries in terms of the robustness of its safety net.
sans_pants
avec_pénis
such a shrug of an election
"well shes better than republicans"
"well shes better than republicans"
TheLaughingStock
Member
She's not guaranteed just likely at this point. Unfortunately for Sanders, I don't know why minorities rationally prefer Clinton so much, but he'd have to work overtime to pull off an upset.
As far as GOP, if they could tone down the crazy just a little bit, then I like the nominee's chances following a Dem black president.
As far as GOP, if they could tone down the crazy just a little bit, then I like the nominee's chances following a Dem black president.
The problem is even if Sanders were elected, there is a zero percent chance of literally almost any of his platform being enacted due to the way the modern Congress is. So it's a wet fever dream based in profound confusion over how the political system currently is.
So by making Sanders the nominee, you reduce the overall chance of a Democrat being elected president, and then have to have it slowly dawn upon you that even if by some wild chance he did win the general, none of his platform would ever become reality.
She's a hell of a lot better than republicans. And she'll make Supreme Court appointments, which is hugely important if you'd like to see the U.S. continue to recognize what century we're in.
Fixed it for you.
Yeah i understand the statistics. I still think this support is completely unwarranted.
ryutaro's mama
Member
I just don't like her as a person. She has limited interpersonal skills and so that makes it super hard for me to back her. Obama, say what you want, he had a likability factor.
Hillary comes across as entitled and believes being President is her birth right.
Her husband was EXTREMELY likable, in fact he is my favorite POTUS (of my lifetime anyway)
Dr. Benton Quest
Banned
"Yes I'm aware of the facts, but I'm choosing to disregard them!"
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
Nothing is guaranteed other than the fact that Republicans have a exceedingly difficult path to the WH and that Sanders has no chance of actually beating Hillary in the primary. So...yah Hillary.
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