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[BertramCooper]

Bernie and Trump are two sides of the same coin.

Bernie appeals to young white liberal men. Trump appeals to old white conservative men. Both will hit their ceilings soon if they haven't already.

The difference is that Trump's target audience pulls more weight in the GOP race than Bernie's does in the Democratic race, meaning Trump has a legitimate shot to really make waves while Bernie probably doesn't.

 

[Third Strike]

Jeb! actually reaffirmed after the Rubio double down that he's still for abortion in case of rape/incest/life of the mother.

I guess he's still trying to look like the parent in the room, even as he makes gaffe after gaffe.

Bush toeing the line will likely cost him the nomination. Social conservatives really believe that having someone who is far right will help them win the election. I've even seen a couple of people claim Jeb is a Democrat in disguise. Walker is seen as the "perfect" GOP candidate, but he will implode once the spotlight is solely on him. If the GOP was smart, they would run Kaisch, but they won't.

 

[KHarvey16]

If turnout is light, the Republicans will win. And Hillary has an enthusiasm problem.

This country still defaults to GOP/Tea Party as midterms, state elections, local elections,etc attest to. There's no way anyone should ever think any Democrat running for a state or nation-wide election has it in the bag.

Light turnout won't do it, you need a specifically light turnout of women, minorities and young people and a higher turnout of old people. That's what you get in the mid-terms.

It's incredibly unlikely.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jeb! actually reaffirmed after the Rubio double down that he's still for abortion in case of rape/incest/life of the mother.

I guess he's still trying to look like the parent in the room, even as he makes gaffe after gaffe.

That Scarlet Letter law he allowed in Florida shows that he does hate women just as much as Rubio though.

Bernie and Trump are two sides of the same coin.

Bernie appeals to young white liberal men. Trump appeals to old white conservative men. Both will hit their ceilings soon if they haven't already.

The difference is that Trump's target audience pulls more weight in the GOP race than Bernie's does in the Democratic race, meaning Trump has a legitimate shot to really make waves while Bernie probably doesn't.

They're both nationalists who appeal to people in the middle class who don't care about anything other than their issues and aren't smart economically.

 

[Kusagari]

Whose the governor of NJ again? NJ is winnable by a Republican. It is not winnable in most scenarios, but Bernie vs. someone halfway reasonable?

It becomes a battleground state.

It's not a 'tipping point' state because Virginia will have already gone Red before NJ (as would PA). That's why Virginia continues to be the single most important state. It is the state that is most likely to signal a Republican victory if it goes red at this point in time.

Going off the governor in off election years is ridiculous. Maryland, Massachussets and Maine all have Republican governors. Are they swing states?

Obama won New Jersey by almost 18 points in 2012. The only way a Republican is winning it in 2016 is a landslide election in their favor.

 

[teruterubozu]

Light turnout won't do it, you need a specifically light turnout of women, minorities and young people and a higher turnout of old people. That's what you get in the mid-terms.

It's incredibly unlikely.

I could see a light turnout with the youth and minorities if Hillary is on the ticket. Women will come out in droves though.

 

[StoOgE]

Bernie & Trump are riding the early wave, I agree. Only the hardcore follow elections this early, so they go with the far-rights and far-lefts (anybody remember Newt Gingrich's "guaranteed" nomination? no.). But by the time it's "Hillary's time" is she going to be able to garner legitimate excitement? I just see lots of people not voting this time around.

Bernie is not getting the "early support". Hillary is dominating him in every national poll and every state poll save a single poll in NH.

He is getting younger voters who spend most of the time on the internets support.

Let an adult bring up trade with China with him and he gets trounced. He's a protectionist and would destroy the US economy if any of his policies got close to becoming law.

 

[spock]

Bernie and Trump are two sides of the same coin.

Bernie appeals to young white liberal men. Trump appeals to old white conservative men. Both will hit their ceilings soon if they haven't already.

The difference is that Trump's target audience pulls more weight in the GOP race than Bernie's does in the Democratic race, meaning Trump has a legitimate shot to really make waves while Bernie probably doesn't.

Ehh, Trumps appeal is going to broaden with time IMO. There is already anecdotal evidence in that happening. This is where the amount of time left in the campaigns works in his favor.

 

[gutter_trash]

Bush toeing the line will likely cost him the nomination. Social conservatives really believe that having someone who is far right will help them win the election. I've even seen a couple of people claim Jeb is a Democrat in disguise. Walker is seen as the "perfect" GOP candidate, but he will implode once the spotlight is solely on him. If the GOP was smart, they would run Kaisch, but they won't.

I find it scary that people continue to peddle the moderate false narrative about Jeb when he is in reality a Neo-Conservative Chicken Hawk itching for more war

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I could see a light turnout with the youth and minorities if Hillary is on the ticket. Women will come out in droves though.

Black people and Hispanics like Hillary way more than women do IIRC.

 

[Jonm1010]

She isn't guaranteed to win but you'd be foolish to think otherwise. For two simple words: electoral math.

 

[teruterubozu]

Bernie is not getting the "early support". Hillary is dominating him in every national poll and every state poll save a single poll in NH.

He is getting younger voters who spend most of the time on the internets support.

Well he's not going to get "late support". You know what I mean, how about "notable support" then?

 

[speculawyer]

They can win Penn or Virginia, and NJ, Nevada are within the realm of possibility.

That said a strong or even halfway decent dem will win all of those states by 3-5 points.

And compete in Colorado, Florida, Ohio and others that should be winnable.

Could win Virginia but NJ & Pennsylvania? Nope.

 

[StoOgE]

I could see a light turnout with the youth and minorities if Hillary is on the ticket. Women will come out in droves though.

You have no idea what you are saying. Hillary is wildly popular with Hispanic, Black and Asian voters.

Bernie's voters are white liberal men in their 20's.

and the youth vote is always lighter than Dems would like but is largely consistent.

 

[makingmusic476]

Demographics make it very hard for the Democrats to lose the EC at this point. Much like how Republicans are highly likely to continue holding the House. The states+districts just favor one party at the moment.

HIllary is also highly likely to be the Democratic nominee, therefore many presume a Clinton victory in the general.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Ehh, Trumps appeal is going to broaden with time IMO. There is already anecdotal evidence in that happening. This is where the amount of time left in the campaigns works in his favor.

No it's not. He will get zero support from minorities and women, even worse than the rest of the Repub field. He's peaking. The fact that he might win or seriously challenge for the nomination says more about the state of the republican party than it does about Trump.

 

[StoOgE]

Could win Virginia but NJ & Pennsylvania? Nope.

If Bernie is the nominee? Absolutely.

I think a lot of states come into play that Dems wouldn't want in play with him as the nominee.

 

[wsippel]

She isn't. And she shouldn't.

 

[MC Safety]

Hillary has the machine behind her, but the American public finds her distant and untrustworthy. She's had too many brushes with scandals, and her opposition (both Democratic and Republican) will remind the public of the time she was handpicked by her husband to oversee a national health care plan and failed miserably. They'll hammer on her misuse of her e-mail -- and we're going to see exactly how far her malfeasance and intent to cover such up has gone.

Despite all this, she may win. She'll have a tough time against Joe Biden for the nomination, but will likely beat Bush or whoever the Republicans throw up as a candidate.

 

[teruterubozu]

Black people and Hispanics like Hillary way more than women do IIRC.

You have no idea what you are saying. Hillary is wildly popular with Hispanic, Black and Asian voters.

Bernie's voters are white liberal men in their 20's.

and the youth vote is always lighter than Dems would like but is largely consistent.

Alright. I guess I don't. Some stats would be nice though, we're getting into anecdotal territory.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

No it's not. He will get zero support from minorities and women, even worse than the rest of the Repub field. He's peaking.

Ben Carson and Ted Cruz voters would vote for Trump if their guys drop out, that could get him to 40% in the Republican primary. I wouldn't say he's peaked at all. I don't think he'll be the nominee, but I think he's going to be close.

 

[StoOgE]

Alright. I guess I don't. Some stats would be nice though, we're getting into anecdotal territory.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-hillary-clinton-hispanic-voters-2016-120223.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-polls-minority-voters-2015-7

No, we're in the territory of facts.

 

[kirblar]

Hillary has the machine behind her, but the American public finds her distant and untrustworthy. She's had too many brushes with scandals, and her opposition (both Democratic and Republican) will remind the public of the time she was handpicked by her husband to oversee a national health care plan and failed miserably. They'll hammer on her misuse of her e-mail -- and we're going to see exactly how far her malfeasance and intent to cover such up has gone.

Despite all this, she may win. She'll have a tough time against Joe Biden for the nomination, but will likely beat Bush or whoever the Republicans throw up as a candidate.

I agree. A few weeks ago I thought Biden was wasting his time. But even though she has the machine, she's suddenly giving away all sorts of unforced errors- and it has nothing to do with Bernie.

 

[teruterubozu]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-hillary-clinton-hispanic-voters-2016-120223.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-polls-minority-voters-2015-7

No, we're in the territory of facts.

Thanks Stooge

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Alright. I guess I don't. Some stats would be nice though, we're getting into anecdotal territory.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-hillary-clinton-hispanic-voters-2016-120223.html
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/does-hillary-have-a-women-problem.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-black-voters_55ca47f6e4b0f73b20bad91a

I have no idea why this is, but she's incredibly popular with racial minorities and is not liked by white women.

 

[Third Strike]

I find it scary that people continue to peddle the moderate false narrative about Jeb when he is in reality a Neo-Conservative Chicken Hawk itching for more war

I agree with you, but just from my own anecdotes seen across a few different conservative sites and forums, many on the right don't view Bush in the same light as Walker or Cruz. Just supporting things like Common Core is enough for some people to paint Bush as a moderate, or even his views on immigration.

 

[Neoweee]

Ben Carson and Ted Cruz voters would vote for Trump if their guys drop out, that could get him to 40% in the Republican primary. I wouldn't say he's peaked at all. I don't think he'll be the nominee, but I think he's going to be close.

That's not really the case at all. Trump is doing poorly for that scenario, both in terms of how many people's "second choice" he is, and his piss-poor unfavorability ratings.

538: Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP

 

[jtb]

Joe Biden is an emergency candidate. I really do not see him running against Hillary, only in place of her.

 

[teruterubozu]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-hillary-clinton-hispanic-voters-2016-120223.html
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/does-hillary-have-a-women-problem.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-black-voters_55ca47f6e4b0f73b20bad91a

I have no idea why this is, but she's incredibly popular with racial minorities and is not liked by white women.

It is strange. So the white women vote isn't a lock as I thought.

 

[ZealousD]

She's not guaranteed to win. But she has such a massive advantage in terms of name recognition and experience that it gives her a tremendous amount of political clout. And she's hardly a hardliner that purely appeals to the democratic base. She's not guaranteed, but it is her election to lose.

 

[Jonm1010]

It is strange. So the white women vote isn't a lock as I thought.

Just wait for the inevitable GOP nominee to slip up(likely often or intentional) with some sexist comments that begin to shift that a bit.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

It is strange. So the white women vote isn't a lock as I thought.

any number of GOP candidates running against her and spouting off about abortion can easily turn that into a lock for Hillary.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm thinking that Virginia is very very close to no longer being a swing state.
Well, let me rephrase: it's as much a swing state as we all pretend Pennsylvania and Michigan are (i.e., Republican fools' gold). If not 2016, then certainly 2020. The growth of the DC suburbs has been craaazy.

Kerry was boring. Slow to respond to attacks. He ran a decade ago, where the demographics were incrementally more difficult. His opponent milked the hell out of 9/11, all but tap-dancing on the Twin Towers' site. And he still won north of 240EVs.

I do think that this year will be closer than 2012. Obama won almost all of the swing states in 2012, and I see her dropping 2 or 3, maybe 4. One party winning a third consecutive White House term is incredibly difficult, and Hillary is a so-so campaign personality. But on her side, she'll have Bill and Obama hopscotching the electoral map while the GOP's big-ticket names will be the nominee and his VP. I'm thinking she names someone popular from Virginia so that she's one state away from winning it all.

In my fantasies, I'd want Bernie at the top of the ticket. But I don't trust the infantile/fickle/simple American electorate to get past the inevitable cavalcade of "socialism!" ads that the GOP would run. We've seen it made into a dirty word over the past century, drilled into voters' heads over and over again, and I tend to think it's unrealistic to think that one neato-slick ad campaign could undo that kind of programming.

 

[BertramCooper]

I have no idea why this is, but she's incredibly popular with racial minorities and is not liked by white women.

I'm guessing her favorables with white women will improve considerably when she's facing a horrible misogynist ass in the general election. Possibly two horrible misogynist asses.

 

[gutter_trash]

Joe Biden is an emergency candidate. I really do not see him running against Hillary, only in place of her.

I think many standard Democrats would feel comfortable with Biden being the backup establishment Democrat candidate just in case Hillary tanks

 

[ScatheZombie]

Short of a miracle in which the GOP realizes that running a campaign based on banning abortions, repealing health care, denying rights to women and minorities, kicking immigrants out of the country, increasing military spending and praising Jebus doesn't win you the general election anymore... the Democrats are going to win the Presidency again.

And Hillary is the front-runner, by a significant margin, for that nomination.

A truly moderate Republican could absolutely beat Hillary in the general election. But none of the current GOP candidates are remotely moderate, in any sense of the word. At best, they run a candidate that only alienates 50% of the country entirely. At worst, they run a candidate that's racist, homophobic, sexist, anti-abortion, doesn't believe in evolution or climate change, wants to reduce gun control but continue the war on drugs, repeal Obama-care and reduce Medicare/Medicaid, increase defense spending, send troops overseas, maintain the minimum wage, increase standard work hours, all while saying a prayer to their invisible friend in the sky.

 

[kirblar]

I'm thinking that Virginia is very very close to no longer being a swing state.
Well, let me rephrase: it's as much a swing state as we all pretend Pennsylvania and Michigan are (i.e., Republican fools' gold). If not 2016, then certainly 2020. The growth of the DC suburbs has been craaazy.

Kerry was boring. Slow to respond to attacks. He ran a decade ago, where the demographics were incrementally more difficult. His opponent milked the hell out of 9/11, all but tap-dancing on the Twin Towers' site. And he still won north of 240EVs.

I do think that this year will be closer than 2012. Obama won almost all of the swing states in 2012, and I see her dropping 2 or 3. One party winning a third consecutive White House term is incredibly difficult, and Hillary is a so-so campaign personality. But on her side, she'll have Bill and Obama hopscotching the electoral map while the GOP's big-ticket names will be the nominee and his VP. I'm thinking she names someone popular from Virginia so that she's one state away from winning it all.

In my fantasies, I'd want Bernie at the top of the ticket. But I don't trust the infantile/fickle/simple American electorate to get past the inevitable cavalcade of "socialism!" ads that the GOP would run. We've seen it made into a dirty word over the past century, drilled into voters' heads over and over again, and I tend to think it's unrealistic to think that one neato-slick ad campaign could undo that kind of programming.

It's one thing to call Obama a "socialist" when he's obviously not one. It makes them look crazy.

It's another to correctly call Sanders by a label he willingly identifies by.

 

[CrocMother]

this image legitimately upsets me

 

[Fury451]

She isn't. If Biden throws his hat in the ring, she might not even get nominated. It really depends on who the GOP ticket winds up being though. There's potential for an interesting debate on issues if it came down to someone like Kasich, but if it ends up being the clown show that it already is, it's anybody's guess.

Honestly, she was favored almost 8 years ago, so I'm not sure she'll have the campaign fire that people think she will. Charisma has always been a bit of a struggle for her in my opinion also.

This is also purely anecdotal, but I've talked to quite a few friends and family that are excited about the idea of a woman as the president, but are a lot less enthusiastic about the idea of Clinton being that person.

this image legitimately upsets me

Using three Emoji's or less, how would you describe "upset"?

 

[Inuhanyou]

This sentiment has been bandied about a lot on this board - that it is a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. Why? Why is she guaranteed to win?

Please explain to this layman why her winning is an inevitability.

Name recognition. Not wanting a GOP presidency. That's basically it. Cinton herself sinks like a stone among those who care about the actual issues. But because she was the wife of a President, and has been in the national spotlight, even though her previous ideals blatantly conflict with where she is on the campaign trail, low info voters who don't actually know about things beyond the first layer are supportive.

 

[PhoenixDark]

The electoral college pretty much guarantees Hillary wins. I don't see a logical map that a republican can win - assuming Kasich isn't the nominee. And even if he was the nominee, Hillary could lose Ohio and Florida and still win.

In terms of Sanders, this country will not elect a socialist. Period, the end.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm thinking that Virginia is very very close to no longer being a swing state.
Well, let me rephrase: it's as much a swing state as we all pretend Pennsylvania and Michigan are (i.e., Republican fools' gold). If not 2016, then certainly 2020. The growth of the DC suburbs has been craaazy.

Kerry was boring. Slow to respond to attacks. He ran a decade ago, where the demographics were incrementally more difficult. His opponent milked the hell out of 9/11, all but tap-dancing on the Twin Towers' site. And he still won north of 240EVs.

I do think that this year will be closer than 2012. Obama won almost all of the swing states in 2012, and I see her dropping 2 or 3, maybe 4. One party winning a third consecutive White House term is incredibly difficult, and Hillary is a so-so campaign personality. But on her side, she'll have Bill and Obama hopscotching the electoral map while the GOP's big-ticket names will be the nominee and his VP. I'm thinking she names someone popular from Virginia so that she's one state away from winning it all.

In my fantasies, I'd want Bernie at the top of the ticket. But I don't trust the infantile/fickle/simple American electorate to get past the inevitable cavalcade of "socialism!" ads that the GOP would run. We've seen it made into a dirty word over the past century, drilled into voters' heads over and over again, and I tend to think it's unrealistic to think that one neato-slick ad campaign could undo that kind of programming.

Man those conventions speeches are going to be one to remember.

 

[Smokey_Run]

I'm thinking that Virginia is very very close to no longer being a swing state.
Well, let me rephrase: it's as much a swing state as we all pretend Pennsylvania and Michigan are (i.e., Republican fools' gold). If not 2016, then certainly 2020. The growth of the DC suburbs has been craaazy.

Kerry was boring. Slow to respond to attacks. He ran a decade ago, where the demographics were incrementally more difficult. His opponent milked the hell out of 9/11, all but tap-dancing on the Twin Towers' site. And he still won north of 240EVs.

I do think that this year will be closer than 2012. Obama won almost all of the swing states in 2012, and I see her dropping 2 or 3. One party winning a third consecutive White House term is incredibly difficult, and Hillary is a so-so campaign personality. But on her side, she'll have Bill and Obama hopscotching the electoral map while the GOP's big-ticket names will be the nominee and his VP. I'm thinking she names someone popular from Virginia so that she's one state away from winning it all.

In my fantasies, I'd want Bernie at the top of the ticket. But I don't trust the infantile/fickle/simple American electorate to get past the inevitable cavalcade of "socialism!" ads that the GOP would run. We've seen it made into a dirty word over the past century, drilled into voters' heads over and over again, and I tend to think it's unrealistic to think that one neato-slick ad campaign could undo that kind of programming.

It all depends on the candidate. Sanders making it to the general election? PA is absolutely in play for Republicans and it's for the reasons you mentioned -- they'd run endless ads about him being a self proclaimed socialist. It's different when you're trying to make that shit stick to someone like Obama. It's a different ballgame when the person admits it.

Sanders is the liberal Ron Paul. They can campaign to crazies and college kids and that's about it. They have an inflated sense of importance on the internet because that's where you'll find their key demo.

 

[ivysaur12]

No one is guaranteed to win. What people mean is that she starts at a better-than-50-percent-chance of winning based on a few factors:

-- A small yet persistent electoral college advantage. For a Republican to win, they need to do an absolute clean sweep of every single swing state. For a Democrat (ie. Hillary) to win, they only need to cobble together an assortment of a few states in order to win. There's also this idea of elasticity: That in some states, even swing states, there's a lot less chance of people changing their votes from one election to the next. Pennsylvania is one of the least elastic states in the country and why it'll always be the Lucy-and-football with Republicans -- even though the margins of winnings are slim, voters do not really change their partisan choices from one election to the next, so a Democrat has an advantage here. New Hampshire is the opposite since it's one of the most elastic states in the country.

-- Name recognition. Hillary is Hillary, and most people know who Hillary is. It's unlikely that we're at a point where people are changing their minds on Hillary because as one poster here put it last year, "Well, she's Hillary". If you're older than your mid-twenties, you have an idea of who Hillary Clinton is. And at this point, polling wise, that's enough of a coalition to win an election.

-- Money. She's a great fundraiser.

-- Her ability to keep the Obama coalition together. Hillary was actually beating Obama in black voters for a while until right up before the primaries began. She's also reaching Obama-2012-levels of Latino support in polls, which would make it increasingly unlikely for a Republican to win in key states like Colorado or Nevada while shoring up New Mexico. Plus, there's a chance (though I'm a little more doubtful about this than I was previously) that she can perform slightly better with white voters versus Obama.

These factors together, plus an increasingly terrible Republican field, give Hillary a better-than-50% shot at the White House. Obviously we have a long way to go, but that's why Democrats aren't really worried about her chances yet, even with Emailghazi and the ghost of her former lover, Vince Foster.

 

[HylianTom]

It's one thing to call Obama a "socialist" when he's obviously not one. It makes them look crazy.

It's another to correctly call Sanders by a label he willingly identifies by.

Exactly. You're going to see a non-stop marathon of TV ads where he's calling himself that label. I don't trust the electorate to look past that. Despite the fact that Dems have won the popular vote 5 of the past 6 times, it only take a small swing to change this, and I don't like the idea of chancing these kinds of narrow margins.

 

[Konka]

The electoral college pretty much guarantees Hillary wins. I don't see a logical map that a republican can win - assuming Kasich isn't the nominee. And even if he was the nominee, Hillary could lose Ohio and Florida and still win.

In terms of Sanders, this country will not elect a socialist. Period, the end.

Bingo.

 

[ivysaur12]

It all depends on the candidate. Sanders making it to the general election? PA is absolutely in play for Republicans and it's for the reasons you mentioned -- they'd run endless ads about him being a self proclaimed socialist. It's different when you're trying to make that shit stick to someone like Obama. It's a different ballgame when the person admits it.

Sanders is the liberal Ron Paul. They can campaign to crazies and college kids and that's about it. They have an inflated sense of importance on the internet because that's where you'll find their key demo.

Sanders is now polling just a little bit worse than Hillary is in general election matchups. I'm not that surprised. I think both would have a good shot at the white house, but Hillary path is obviously much clearer, and she could potentially help down-ticket races where the Democrats have been rendered obsolete at the state level.

 

[Korey]

this image legitimately upsets me

Hillary's social media team is so much worse than Obama's. Uggh.

 

[Smokey_Run]

Sanders is now polling just a little bit worse than Hillary is in general election matchups. I'm not that surprised. I think both would have a good shot at the white house, but Hillary path is obviously much clearer, and she could potentially help down-ticket races where the Democrats have been rendered obsolete at the state level.

Let's have the "Sanders is polling great in comparison to Hillary" conversation when he actually steps into the spotlight. Most people don't even know who he is at this point. You think the average person in the middle of Pennsylvania knows anything about Sanders? Hell no.

 

[ivysaur12]

Let's have the "Sanders is polling great in comparison to Hillary" conversation when he actually steps into the spotlight. Most people don't even know who he is at this point. You think the average person in the middle of Pennsylvania knows anything about Sanders? Hell no.

The average person in the middle of Pennsylvania is probably not going to vote for a Democrat anyway.

But yes, I know what you mean.

EDIT: lol actually Centre County which is in the center of Pennsylvania went for Obama. SO.