Hillary Clinton's lead a puddle in the Sanders Sahara #deadheat #feelthebern

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Where we are heading and what future generations will inherit is unbelievably dumb. With the knowledge we possess we have no excuses.
What is stopping the progress, what is causing us to lose sight of what is happening to the Earth, what is allowing publican opinion to be shaped by PR firms instead of scientific discoveries? Why aren't there protests after every knucklehead quote from the (R) about climate change, because we are deeply entrenched in the system that can barely see what is but a few feet away and has no interest what is beyond the horizon. The current World elite should be held accountable for not doing enough to stop total annihilation of millions upon millions of people. We actually have the means now to annihilate ourselves - unlike 100 years ago. And we are not doing anything to change our course because it might stop someone from getting even more wealthy. How long do you think this system is sustainable if the oceans rise a few meters in the space of a few years. The data is there catastrophic changes in the weather can occur in a short amount of time.

I'm just enjoying myself with life - which is wonder to even facilitate with thought. To me it's pretty obvious what will happen at this point and it's pretty inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. You have to be Zen and adapt in this life.



Potential Threat

Ah, yes a potential threat that can threaten our country, potentially. Even the sitting president is potentially a threat because he can potentially threaten this nation that he leads. Even the Communist superhero and lord and savior Bernie Sanders is not safe to run this country because potentially .

Also you said " Politicians/ex-politician are a threat to national security and thus only the most worthy are capable of holding office. Any convicted corruption case leads to arrests in both the lobbyist(unless he gives out who hired him) and the politician in question. Sentencing being 10 years minimum. Heavy fines are imposed on any corporation that has any links to such lobbyists and lobbying is outlawed completely." There's no potential nor potential threat in the same paragraph.

Are we moving dem goalpost??? But you did say potential terrorist target when you was talking about the NSA. So they're terrorists now? I guess conservatives really was right about Obama, perhaps for the wrong reasons.
 

Ayt

Banned
I wouldn't call the inherent reality that being an avowed socialist is probably second only to being an athiest in terms of being a general election albatross around the neck a magic eight ball.

We just elected a black Kenyan Muslim socialist who hates America and has the middle name Hussein.
 

Flo_Evans

Member
1) It's precisely because of those leanings that I take him less seriously, because...
2) ...free trade by itself didn't lose the US all of those jobs (and I'm not sure how many it lost or gained, period, because all I ever see in opposition are worthless platitudes from people pandering to a specific sector), and going in the exact opposite direction isn't going to bring them back.



Destructive foreign policy and the drug war have close to nothing to do with my issues with Bernie's immigration stance.

Nobody is perfect. Sounds like he is a fan of Noam Chomsky. I like reading his books but hell if I know if his ideas are correct.

I think trying to protect manual labor is a losing game at this stage though. You could probably delay the inevitable at this point but it's not a path to the future.
 

Ayt

Banned
General question:

Why is it so terrible that part of deciding who to support is who you think has the best chance of winning? Why is that such a terrible thing? (Genuinely asking, not trying to start anything or attack anyone.) I mean, why shouldn't that be a part of it. As long as you have a rational basis for such a judgement, I don't see why it's so terrible.

A major issue with someone like Hillary is that turnout could end up being low. People have been claiming she's a lock to win for how long now? That hurts enthusiasm. I would say she also isn't particularly charismatic and comes off as a calculating politician.

People don't like to feel like they are voting for "Fill in the blank" with a D next to the name rather than someone they actually believe in. Vote for me because I'm not a Republican doesn't fire up the Democratic electorate as a whole.

The people saying Sanders would get killed in the general election also aren't thinking things through. If Sanders was able to beat shoe in, lock of the century Clinton to win the nomination, he'd have enough support to win the general as well.
 

Walpurgis

Banned
It's more for people donating to you. I can give unlimited amounts to a super pac, I can only give your official campaign a few grand.

By campaign law, the limit one individual can donate to an official campaign (I think it's also separated into 'primary' and 'general election' periods) is $2700. PACs are also limited by campaign contribution rules, so they have a hard limit on how much they can contribute to a campaign too. It's easy to find via Google, because it's all public knowledge.

SuperPACs differ from PACs in the sense that the way they spend money is different from how PACs spend money. In the 2010 case Citizens United vs. FEC (commonly known as Citizens United) did some complicated shit, but the general idea of the decision in the case is that SuperPACs can take unlimited contributions. So SuperPACs allow rich individuals and corporations to circumvent campaign law and donate to their candidate of choice as much as they desire, as long as it is to a 'SuperPAC'.

The downsides are that the SuperPAC cannot coordinate with an official campaign (lol like that's difficult) and that generally, advertising rates for official campaigns have to be lower and more favorable, so a SuperPAC would have to spend more money on the same amount of TV time, or other advertising venues.

Campaign finance laws make it so that 'work arounds' are what rich individuals and corporations would want to give their cause or candidate more aid.

Thanks. Since he isn't partaking, does Sanders plan to close these loopholes and remove corporate/union/group spending on campaigns?
 

Zona

Member
Thanks. Since he isn't partaking, does Sanders plan to close these loopholes and remove corporate/union/group spending on campaigns?

Short of a constitutional amendment the only real way to do so would be to get the Supreme Court to issue a new ruling revoking the old. The only way that's happening is to replace one of the current conservative justices with a liberal one, which is why this election is so bloody important amongst other things.
 

JustenP88

I earned 100 Gamerscore™ for collecting 300 widgets and thereby created Trump's America
A major issue with someone like Hillary is that turnout could end up being low. People have been claiming she's a lock to win for how long now? That hurts enthusiasm. I would say she also isn't particularly charismatic and comes off as a calculating politician.

People don't like to feel like they are voting for "Fill in the blank" with a D next to the name rather than someone they actually believe in. Vote for me because I'm not a Republican doesn't fire up the Democratic electorate as a whole.

The people saying Sanders would get killed in the general election also aren't thinking things through. If Sanders was able to beat shoe in, lock of the century Clinton to win the nomination, he'd have enough support to win the general as well.

Yes. Competition in the primary will be good for the general. Complacency breeds apathy and apathy could hurt voter turn-out. We don't have anything to gain by being so dismissive of Hillary's competition.
 
I'm sorry, I can't let someone post something like this, without giving any specifics.

Which of his policies are unrealistic, and why? Which of his policies are harmful, and why? As an outsider looking in, I don't find his policies to be extreme at all. In fact, they seem to be close to traditional Scandinavian social democracy, an ideology that has served us Scandinavians well for a long time. Please enlighten me.
I missed this post earlier. I would probably consider his protectionist and somewhat nationalist stances on trade and immigration harmful and unrealistic. Similarly, "breaking up the big banks" is a nice populist slogan, but doesn't seem like something that should be rationally entertained as it is impractical, costly and I'm not entirely sure what the proposed benefit of it is, beyond making the US financial system less competitive.

Things that are frankly unrealistic include magically providing healthcare and college educations for everyone, while simultaneously injecting a $1T infrastructure-based stimulus programme, somehow balanced out with some relatively non-descript tax on Wall Street. This all while only in control of one of the US branches of government.

While the gap between wages and productivity growth in the US is relatively ridiculous, and there is academic literature supporting that minimum wages can ostensibly be increased without dramatic impact, the degree and rate of change I would presume is important. It also fails to take into account regional variation in living costs. On balance, while I consider raising the minimum wage to some degree a sensible progressive plank, even if he was able to institute his policy, I think there would be some negative impact of a more than doubling in a four year period. It would make for an interesting experiment though.

I'm not entirely sure how he expects to prevent corporations offshoring.

Citizens United was a ridiculous ruling from my understanding of the situation; that said, the system there is the system as is, and refusing to use it to try and change it seems like folly.

In all, his policy positions are woefully devoid of specifics, completely ignore potential unintended consequences and several of the points under different subheadings are just repetition of the same points under income and wealth inequality.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I missed this post earlier. I would probably consider his protectionist and somewhat nationalist stances on trade and immigration harmful and unrealistic. Similarly, "breaking up the big banks" is a nice populist slogan, but doesn't seem like something that should be rationally entertained as it is impractical, costly and I'm not entirely sure what the proposed benefit of it is, beyond making the US financial system less competitive.

Things that are frankly unrealistic include magically providing healthcare and college educations for everyone, while simultaneously injecting a $1T infrastructure-based stimulus programme, somehow balanced out with some relatively non-descript tax on Wall Street. This all while only in control of one of the US branches of government.

While the gap between wages and productivity growth in the US is relatively ridiculous, and there is academic literature supporting that minimum wages can ostensibly be increased without dramatic impact, the degree and rate of change I would presume is important. It also fails to take into account regional variation in living costs. On balance, while I consider raising the minimum wage to some degree a sensible progressive plank, even if he was able to institute his policy, I think there would be some negative impact of a more than doubling in a four year period. It would make for an interesting experiment though.

I'm not entirely sure how he expects to prevent corporations offshoring.

Citizens United was a ridiculous ruling from my understanding of the situation; that said, the system there is the system as is, and refusing to use it to try and change it seems like folly.

In all, his policy positions are woefully devoid of specifics, completely ignore potential unintended consequences and several of the points under different subheadings are just repetition of the same points under income and wealth inequality.

Hopefully the debates push him to answer these questions. He has not had to face scrutiny with the press as much as Hillary has lately. Will be fun to see how he does under intense scrutiny. Hillary has been through the ring before.
 

dramatis

Member
Thanks. Since he isn't partaking, does Sanders plan to close these loopholes and remove corporate/union/group spending on campaigns?
Unions usually make PACs, which have been a legitimate part of campaign financing for a long time. Companies (larger ones) can have PACs too.

Corporate/union/group spending will always be a part of campaigns. Bernie himself received, throughout his career, significant contributions from union PACs.

What Bernie and Hillary both aim to change in campaign finance is the Citizens United ruling that permitted the SuperPAC contributions to get out of hand.

Bernie supporters point to Bernie's refusal to use SuperPAC money as his commitment to actual change. The problem is, his chances of winning the primary and the general election are significantly diminished by his lack of financial power.

That's the irony of the SuperPAC situation: you can't win elections without them, which means you can't change the problem without partaking in the problem.
 
I missed this post earlier. I would probably consider his protectionist and somewhat nationalist stances on trade and immigration harmful and unrealistic. Similarly, "breaking up the big banks" is a nice populist slogan, but doesn't seem like something that should be rationally entertained as it is impractical, costly and I'm not entirely sure what the proposed benefit of it is, beyond making the US financial system less competitive.

Things that are frankly unrealistic include magically providing healthcare and college educations for everyone, while simultaneously injecting a $1T infrastructure-based stimulus programme, somehow balanced out with some relatively non-descript tax on Wall Street. This all while only in control of one of the US branches of government.

While the gap between wages and productivity growth in the US is relatively ridiculous, and there is academic literature supporting that minimum wages can ostensibly be increased without dramatic impact, the degree and rate of change I would presume is important. It also fails to take into account regional variation in living costs. On balance, while I consider raising the minimum wage to some degree a sensible progressive plank, even if he was able to institute his policy, I think there would be some negative impact of a more than doubling in a four year period. It would make for an interesting experiment though.

I'm not entirely sure how he expects to prevent corporations offshoring.

Citizens United was a ridiculous ruling from my understanding of the situation; that said, the system there is the system as is, and refusing to use it to try and change it seems like folly.

In all, his policy positions are woefully devoid of specifics, completely ignore potential unintended consequences and several of the points under different subheadings are just repetition of the same points under income and wealth inequality.

This was a really informative interview he did with Yahoo, I think. He gets into some stuff I didnt knew; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpgJYNaIeqo

He mentions this taxing of wall street speculation! He says it could generate 300 bn per year. That is impressive if that is true!

I also wonder if he would do the regular offenders; cut the defense budget, increase tax for the richest!
unions, and the job creations from his 1Trillion dollar infrastructure plan combined with the minimum wage increase could give new vigor to the economy and make people spend more.
Then there is the taxing of companies off shoring their produce to china, and import taxes "buy murica!"


But could all these things- counter balance many of the things we're talking about;

1) At least 100,000 Veterans run around with PTSD. This seems like more mass shootings waiting to happen. Not enough are talking about the appaling treatment of the people who served.

2) he talks about in the vox interview, they will need to make a massive investment in solar and wind- Something Obama tried and failed at. And has continued to fail at stopping fracking. I am very pessimistic on this issue.

3) allowing students to re-organize their student debt, and making tuition free for public colleges and universities.

4) Pensions, welfare, equal pay equity for women, paid maternity leave, and eventually paid vacation. All great things, all expensive.
None of these things will happen without substantial tax increases. at all levels.

5) then there are the cases of private prisons and private medical industry. I don't know how he is going to powerful lobby of those. And with the obesity epidemic in America I am afraid that many americans don't want to pay for fat related lifestyle diseases created by peoples overweight. Just thinking about the -two-air-seat-debacles x1000000.




Of all these things, if Obamacare is any indicator; the GOP would fight everything. every bill, every proposal? I'm afraid that a bernie or hilary won't get much done. Need to end the gridlock. The US are unrealistic if they want to remain competitive and have a great system, and continue to deduce their politics into only two major parties that creates these stalemates. It's a massive problem!
 

Wall

Member
I'll post the counterargument to all of this, because there is a very strong one. I apologize for the long post, but I think this is important.

I missed this post earlier. I would probably consider his protectionist and somewhat nationalist stances on trade and immigration harmful and unrealistic.
I guess this would be probably be the strongest line of attack against Sander's platform on a substantive basis, but realistically, I don't see where the problem is. For the past 30 or so years, we've undergone a global liberalization of trade to the point where there really aren't many barriers left to "free" trade between the major economies of the planet. At the same time, that liberalization was conducted in a manner that largely ignored negative externalities such as environmental harm and economic displacement.

I don't see Sander's proposing mass deportation or building a wall like Donald Trump, and I don't see him proposing to erect massive tariffs like Smoot-Hawley. As a matter of fact, Sanders currently appears to be line with the rest of the Democratic Party regarding immigration, and on trade, he seems at most skeptical of future agreements designed more to facilitate movement between regulatory regimes than anything else. To put a more positive spin on it, I would say you could characterize his position as being more mindful of the negative externalities associated with trade agreements.

He is hardly Pat Buchanan or Ross Perot.

Similarly, "breaking up the big banks" is a nice populist slogan, but doesn't seem like something that should be rationally entertained as it is impractical, costly and I'm not entirely sure what the proposed benefit of it is, beyond making the US financial system less competitive.

This part of his platform dates to the financial crisis and its aftermath. During the run-up to the financial crisis, the major banks of the U.S., along with other bank-like entities, over-leveraged themselves to the point that they faced bankruptcy or the threat of bankruptcy when the housing bubble popped. As a result, the flow of neccessary liquid capital through the economy (e.g. short term loans) froze, which threatened to send otherwise healthy companies into bankruptcy. Because of that "freeze", the U.S government, along with governments around the world, were forced to inject massive amounts of capital into their "banking systems" to prevent a worldwide depression that could well have been worse than the 1930's.

Although the "bailouts" were neccessary, they carried with them the problem of "moral hazard". The term moral hazard refers to the idea that if an entity that engages in reckless or otherwise irresponsible behavior is shielded from the consequences of that behavior - in this case bankruptcy - then there is no incentive not to repeat that behavior.

Now, the response to all of that is of course the existence of the Dodd-Frank regulations passed in the immediate aftermath of crisis, which are supposed to prevent the kind of behavior that necessitated the bailouts. However, it should be noted that the entities whose behavior caused the crisis and were subsequently bailed out continue to donate heavily to both parties because of their privileged location in the U.S. economic system. As a result, the repeal of Dodd-Frank is a major plank of the Republican platform, and many "centrist" Democrats are quietly sympathetic to weakening Dodd-Frank. Those facts lead to the main justification for "breaking up the banks": limiting the political power that comes from the economic power those banks possess, which would ultimately better protect the entire economy from events such as those that led to the financial crisis in 2008.

Things that are frankly unrealistic include magically providing healthcare and college educations for everyone, while simultaneously injecting a $1T infrastructure-based stimulus programmer, somehow balanced out with some relatively non-descript tax on Wall Street. This all while only in control of one of the US branches of government.

Well, to your first point, I can only say that continental Europe must be a magical place. Countries like Germany and France manage to operate a completely publicly funded higher education system while maintaining a robust infrastructure consisting of roads, bridges, mass transit, power grids, and sewerage systems that are not falling apart, decrepit, non-existent, or underdeveloped like in the U.S.

In reality, we can't afford not to fix and upgrade our existing infrastructure because current economic activity, future economic growth, and the very functioning of our society depends on it. We are already way behind on repairing our existing infrastructure, and even assuming we can keep our existing assets in working condition, population growth alone is going to have effects like turning I-95 into a parking lot over the next 30 years.

In addition, all of that doesn't even begin to take into consideration the need to upgrade and transition our infrastructure both to mitigate climate change and deal with the effects of the the temperature increase that is already "baked in". Is there any amount of money that we could spend now that is less than what we would lose should Miami and NYC end up buried under the Atlantic?

As to your last point, I agree. None of these proposals will get past a Republican congress. Then again, no major proposal by a Democratic President will get past a Republican congress. We are looking at the likelihood of, at the very least, gridlocked government until well in the 2020's. Why not keep good, neccessary, ideas on the table?

While the gap between wages and productivity growth in the US is relatively ridiculous, and there is academic literature supporting that minimum wages can ostensibly be increased without dramatic impact, the degree and rate of change I would presume is important. It also fails to take into account regional variation in living costs. On balance, while I consider raising the minimum wage to some degree a sensible progressive plank, even if he was able to institute his policy, I think there would be some negative impact of a more than doubling in a four year period. It would make for an interesting experiment though.

We'll find out because New York State is raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to 15 dollars an hour. I suspect the results will be less than apocalyptic considering Australia has a national minimum wage that is slightly more than 15 U.S. dollars, and many other countries have effective wage floors much higher than the U.S. that are enacted through collective bargaining laws.

Of course, under Sander's proposal to raise the national minimum wage states and localities would be free to enact higher minimum wages. What the "moderate" versus "radical" fight in this context is really about is whether the minimum wage in places like rural West Virginia should be 10-12 dollars or 15 dollars. In the end, the difference is more about rhetorical positioning - moderate versus radical - than any substantive difference. I am sure that workers making the minimum wage would appreciate the extra money, though.

I'm not entirely sure how he expects to prevent corporations offshoring.

Every Democratic political at the Presidential level has a plan to "prevent offshoring". I am not sure why the inability to prevent offshoring completely should be held against Sanders.

Citizens United was a ridiculous ruling from my understanding of the situation; that said, the system there is the system as is, and refusing to use it to try and change it seems like folly.

For the general election, I definitely think this is a real concern. On the one hand, the lack of funding I think definitely hurts the ability of the Sanders campaign to communicate beyond individuals who are plugged into social media or who are connected to existing political networks. On the other hand, the freedom from reliance on large donations may give the the Sanders campaign greater latitude to craft a platform that resonates with people. At the very least, the Sanders campaign is an interesting example of both the advantages and pitfalls of running a campaign outside of the traditional media and political fundraising system. I doubt his campaign would be possible as constituted even 10 years ago.

I can definitely see being nervous about it though. I am too.


In all, his policy positions are woefully devoid of specifics, completely ignore potential unintended consequences and several of the points under different subheadings are just repetition of the same points under income and wealth inequality.

In terms of being devoid of specifics, I think you will find that is true of all the political candidates across the spectrum at this point. Each candidate has a mixture of policy themes, policy objectives, and more detailed plans. I don't see Sanders as any more or any less substantive in this regard.

In all, I think that Sanders is both more and less than he appears. He is more than he appears because, for most all of the planks across his platform, I could point to a working example of the proposal in another country or a prominent figure calling for such a policy. In many ways, Sander's platform would bring the U.S. more in line with the rest of the world. At some point, we in the U.S. have to start asking ourselves what other countries see about some things that we don't.

Conversely, he is less than he appears because he isn't really a fire breathing radical in the traditional sense. He would probably find himself, rhetorically speaking, at home in the Democratic Party of the 30's, 40's, and 50's, and in terms of his platform, most of his proposals wouldn't look out of place in the Democratic Party of the 60's and 70's. Globally, he would probably be towards the center. Of course, all political positioning is relative to the contexts of time and place, but then again, contexts themselves change. To name just one change since the 80's and 90's, economically our country is in a much different place.

In all, I am glad he is in the race because he is getting people passionate about making neccessary and vital changes to our country. If all he manages to do is excite "young college kids", then so be it. Often times, such demographics are early adopters of views and attitudes that spread across society.

Better Sanders than the Paul family, I say.
 
I'll post the counterargument to all of this, because there is a very strong one. I apologize for the long post, but I think this is important.


I guess this would be probably be the strongest line of attack against Sander's platform on a substantive basis, but realistically, I don't see where the problem is. For the past 30 or so years, we've undergone a global liberalization of trade to the point where there really aren't many barriers left to "free" trade between the major economies of the planet. At the same time, that liberalization was conducted in a manner that largely ignored negative externalities such as environmental harm and economic displacement.

I don't see Sander's proposing mass deportation or building a wall like Donald Trump, and I don't see him proposing to erect massive tariffs like Smoot-Hawley. As a matter of fact, Sanders currently appears to be line with the rest of the Democratic Party regarding immigration, and on trade, he seems at most skeptical of future agreements designed more to facilitate movement between regulatory regimes than anything else. To put a more positive spin on it, I would say you could characterize his position as being more mindful of the negative externalities associated with trade agreements.

He is hardly Pat Buchanan or Ross Perot.



This part of his platform dates to the financial crisis and its aftermath. During the run-up to the financial crisis, the major banks of the U.S., along with other bank-like entities, over-leveraged themselves to the point that they faced bankruptcy or the threat of bankruptcy when the housing bubble popped. As a result, the flow of neccessary liquid capital through the economy (e.g. short term loans) froze, which threatened to send otherwise healthy companies into bankruptcy. Because of that "freeze", the U.S government, along with governments around the world, were forced to inject massive amounts of capital into their "banking systems" to prevent a worldwide depression that could well have been worse than the 1930's.

Although the "bailouts" were neccessary, they carried with them the problem of "moral hazard". The term moral hazard refers to the idea that if an entity that engages in reckless or otherwise irresponsible behavior is shielded from the consequences of that behavior - in this case bankruptcy - then there is no incentive not to repeat that behavior.

Now, the response to all of that is of course the existence of the Dodd-Frank regulations passed in the immediate aftermath of crisis, which are supposed to prevent the kind of behavior that necessitated the bailouts. However, it should be noted that the entities whose behavior caused the crisis and were subsequently bailed out continue to donate heavily to both parties because of their privileged location in the U.S. economic system. As a result, the repeal of Dodd-Frank is a major plank of the Republican platform, and many "centrist" Democrats are quietly sympathetic to weakening Dodd-Frank. Those facts lead to the main justification for "breaking up the banks": limiting the political power that comes from the economic power those banks possess, which would ultimately better protect the entire economy from events such as those that led to the financial crisis in 2008.



Well, to your first point, I can only say that continental Europe must be a magical place. Countries like Germany and France manage to operate a completely publicly funded higher education system while maintaining a robust infrastructure consisting of roads, bridges, mass transit, power grids, and sewerage systems that are not falling apart, decrepit, non-existent, or underdeveloped like in the U.S.

In reality, we can't afford not to fix and upgrade our existing infrastructure because current economic activity, future economic growth, and the very functioning of our society depends on it. We are already way behind on repairing our existing infrastructure, and even assuming we can keep our existing assets in working condition, population growth alone is going to have effects like turning I-95 into a parking lot over the next 30 years.

In addition, all of that doesn't even begin to take into consideration the need to upgrade and transition our infrastructure both to mitigate climate change and deal with the effects of the the temperature increase that is already "baked in". Is there any amount of money that we could spend now that is less than what we would lose should Miami and NYC end up buried under the Atlantic?

As to your last point, I agree. None of these proposals will get past a Republican congress. Then again, no major proposal by a Democratic President will get past a Republican congress. We are looking at the likelihood of, at the very least, gridlocked government until well in the 2020's. Why not keep good, neccessary, ideas on the table?



We'll find out because New York State is raising the minimum wage for fast food workers to 15 dollars an hour. I suspect the results will be less than apocalyptic considering Australia has a national minimum wage that is slightly more than 15 U.S. dollars, and many other countries have effective wage floors much higher than the U.S. that are enacted through collective bargaining laws.

Of course, under Sander's proposal to raise the national minimum wage states and localities would be free to enact higher minimum wages. What the "moderate" versus "radical" fight in this context is really about is whether the minimum wage in places like rural West Virginia should be 10-12 dollars or 15 dollars. In the end, the difference is more about rhetorical positioning - moderate versus radical - than any substantive difference. I am sure that workers making the minimum wage would appreciate the extra money, though.



Every Democratic political at the Presidential level has a plan to "prevent offshoring". I am not sure why the inability to prevent offshoring completely should be held against Sanders.



For the general election, I definitely think this is a real concern. On the one hand, the lack of funding I think definitely hurts the ability of the Sanders campaign to communicate beyond individuals who are plugged into social media or who are connected to existing political networks. On the other hand, the freedom from reliance on large donations may give the the Sanders campaign greater latitude to craft a platform that resonates with people. At the very least, the Sanders campaign is an interesting example of both the advantages and pitfalls of running a campaign outside of the traditional media and political fundraising system. I doubt his campaign would be possible as constituted even 10 years ago.

I can definitely see being nervous about it though. I am too.




In terms of being devoid of specifics, I think you will find that is true of all the political candidates across the spectrum at this point. Each candidate has a mixture of policy themes, policy objectives, and more detailed plans. I don't see Sanders as any more or any less substantive in this regard.

In all, I think that Sanders is both more and less than he appears. He is more than he appears because, for most all of the planks across his platform, I could point to a working example of the proposal in another country or a prominent figure calling for such a policy. In many ways, Sander's platform would bring the U.S. more in line with the rest of the world. At some point, we in the U.S. have to start asking ourselves what other countries see about some things that we don't.

Conversely, he is less than he appears because he isn't really a fire breathing radical in the traditional sense. He would probably find himself, rhetorically speaking, at home in the Democratic Party of the 30's, 40's, and 50's, and in terms of his platform, most of his proposals wouldn't look out of place in the Democratic Party of the 60's and 70's. Globally, he would probably be towards the center. Of course, all political positioning is relative to the contexts of time and place, but then again, contexts themselves change. To name just one change since the 80's and 90's, economically our country is in a much different place.

In all, I am glad he is in the race because he is getting people passionate about making neccessary and vital changes to our country. If all he manages to do is excite "young college kids", then so be it. Often times, such demographics are early adopters of views and attitudes that spread across society.

Better Sanders than the Paul family, I say.
What a fitting handle you have.
 

kirblar

Member
I missed this post earlier. I would probably consider his protectionist and somewhat nationalist stances on trade and immigration harmful and unrealistic. Similarly, "breaking up the big banks" is a nice populist slogan, but doesn't seem like something that should be rationally entertained as it is impractical, costly and I'm not entirely sure what the proposed benefit of it is, beyond making the US financial system less competitive.
There's actually an argument that the banks aren't condensed enough, leading to massive instability as "bets" are spread regionally, so banks fail when their region fails due to not having investments in other areas to make up for the losses. (This is how it works in Canada, with only 5-6 large banks w/ smaller credit unions locally.)
 

Wall

Member
There's actually an argument that the banks aren't condensed enough, leading to massive instability as "bets" are spread regionally, so banks fail when their region fails due to not having investments in other areas to make up for the losses. (This is how it works in Canada, with only 5-6 large banks w/ smaller credit unions locally.)

The banks that got into trouble during the crisis were national banks though. Smaller local banks were hit too, but they were small enough for institutions like the FDIC to handle.

Canada escaped the brunt of the crisis because its banking regulations were stronger. There is an argument that having a few large banks like Canada makes them easier to regulate than having many small banks. I would feel a lot better about that argument if it weren't for the political power that large size gives to the banks.
 
Nationalizing the banks and rejecting TARP is not good policy, it's pure populist demagoguery. I'd rather have a boring pragmatist keep our fragile society relatively stable than someone who purely runs on ideology.

Breaking up the banks is no guarantee that a financial crisis won't happen since the whole thing is interconnected. Doesn't matter if you have 50 banks or 5 banks if credit is freezing to the point where the financial system is in jeopardy.
 

Wall

Member
Nationalizing the banks and rejecting TARP is not good policy, it's pure populist demagoguery. I'd rather have a boring pragmatist keep our fragile society relatively stable than someone who purely runs on ideology.

Breaking up the banks is no guarantee that a financial crisis won't happen since the whole thing is interconnected. Doesn't matter if you have 50 banks or 5 banks if credit is freezing to the point where the financial system is in jeopardy.

Who is proposing nationalizing banks or rejecting TARP? How would you reject something that already happened?

And of course there are no guarantees, but the interconnectedness of the financial system in 2008 definitely contributed to the crisis. Prior to the repeal of Glass-Steagal, the FDIC was sufficient to prevent bank runs because it could guarantee the deposits of the smaller banks mandated by laws passed in the aftermath of the financial crisis that led to the depression.
 
Who is proposing nationalizing banks or rejecting TARP? How would you reject something that already happened?

And of course there are no guarantees, but the interconnectedness of the financial system in 2008 definitely contributed to the crisis. Prior to the repeal of Glass-Steagal, the FDIC was sufficient to prevent bank runs because it could guarantee the deposits of the smaller banks mandated by laws passed in the aftermath of the financial crisis that led to the depression.

I'm talking about Sanders record and views on that stuff. Some of the stuff he has done just would not fly as a President because it jeopardizes us all.
 

Wall

Member
I'm talking about Sanders record and views on that stuff. Some of the stuff he has done just would not fly as a President because it jeopardizes us all.

Like what? Acting in the capacity of a Senator and acting in the capacity of a President are two different things anyway.
 
Like what? Acting in the capacity of a Senator and acting in the capacity of a President are two different things anyway.

Given that people bring up the voting record of Senators all the time when they run for President I think it's fair game. He voted against TARP at the height of our crisis and that, to me, is dangerous.
 

Damerman

Member
Nationalizing the banks and rejecting TARP is not good policy, it's pure populist demagoguery. I'd rather have a boring pragmatist keep our fragile society relatively stable than someone who purely runs on ideology.

Breaking up the banks is no guarantee that a financial crisis won't happen since the whole thing is interconnected. Doesn't matter if you have 50 banks or 5 banks if credit is freezing to the point where the financial system is in jeopardy.
That last paragraph makes no sense. Oligopoly banking system is what the problem is. If the banking industry was in perfect competition, we would not care if one bank had to freeze. I personally know of 3 relatively small multimillion dollar companies in NJ that would go to utter shit if JP Morgan froze. We need countless banks that actually set out to do what the fed sets them out to do, rather than continue to let this Endorphin addicted risk takers to continue to swell up cash.
 

Wall

Member
Given that people bring up the voting record of Senators all the time when they run for President I think it's fair game. He voted against TARP at the height of our crisis and that, to me, is dangerous.

True, but in that specific case I personally don't put much weight on what he probably knew was a symbolic vote. I think that any President, when faced with the conditions of 2008, would probably have taken some action to restore faith in the financial system to unfreeze the credit markets. What would have differed would have been the measures taken to deal with the moral hazard problem.
 

Damerman

Member
Prior to the repeal of Glass-Steagal, the FDIC was sufficient to prevent bank runs because it could guarantee the deposits of the smaller banks mandated by laws passed in the aftermath of the financial crisis that led to the depression.
Also this.
 
That last paragraph makes no sense. Oligopoly banking system is what the problem is. If the banking industry was in perfect competition, we would not care if one bank had to freeze. I personally know of 3 relatively small multimillion dollar companies in NJ that would go to utter shit if JP Morgan froze. We need countless banks that actually set out to do what the fed sets them out to do, rather than continue to let this Endorphin addicted risk takers to continue to swell up cash.

I'm just saying, a lot of top economists say that having a bunch of smaller banks may not have changed anything when you consider the source of the problem at the time. It would have just meant more banks failing instead of a few big ones.
 

Wall

Member
I'm just saying, a lot of top economists say that having a bunch of smaller banks may not have changed anything when you consider the source of the problem at the time. It would have just meant more banks failing instead of a few big ones.

And a lot of other economists disagreed. If you had a lot of smaller banks, and those banks were only allowed to do certain kinds of things, then you might not have seen a collapse in the housing sector spread to the point where companies like GM were facing bankruptcy.

Either way, I think a comparison between the effects and the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008 and the S&L crisis of the 80's, which occurred before Glass Steagal was repealed, is instructive.
 

besada

Banned
I think we need to clarify that the "Well Hillary was inevitable in 2008!" is completely revisionist history. She had a lead in primary polling, yes, but not to the degree that she's been leading Sanders (even now)
That's not actually true, though. At this point in 2007, she was leading Obama by somewhere between 18-20 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

She's currently leading Sanders by about the same, 18-20 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Everyone's welcome to their opinions, but let's try to not use our own facts, particularly when they're so damn easy to look up.
 

Damerman

Member
I'm just saying, a lot of top economists say that having a bunch of smaller banks may not have changed anything when you consider the source of the problem at the time. It would have just meant more banks failing instead of a few big ones.
I was under the impression that the source of the problem was the huge panic after the massive fraud that the big banks/rating agencies/AIG were participating in became exposed.

What was the source of the problem?
 
I was under the impression that the source of the problem was the huge panic after the massive fraud that the big banks/rating agencies/AIG were participating in became exposed.

What was the source of the problem?

It was a failure of the system as a whole. Subprime lending was occurring at virtually every size level of banks. Whether it's the small local bank or the biggest banks of all. Many of these assets were being cycled around from top to bottom as well.

It's completely a matter of opinion. I'm just saying that it's not a clear cut answer that getting rid of big banks would solve all the problems.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
That's not actually true, though. At this point in 2007, she was leading Obama by somewhere between 18-20 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

She's currently leading Sanders by about the same, 18-20 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Everyone's welcome to their opinions, but let's try to not use our own facts, particularly when they're so damn easy to look up.

She's actually leading by 24.3% in the RCP aggregate and 30.9% in the HuffPo aggregate.

In fact, in the link you provided, on August 19th, 2007, she's leading by 12.2%. That's not really comparable?
 

Wall

Member
She's actually leading by 24.3% in the RCP aggregate and 30.9% in the HuffPo aggregate.

In fact, in the link you provided, on August 19th, 2007, she's leading by 12.2%. That's not really comparable?

Are you looking at the top numbers in the box? That shows the end of the race, and its Obama who is ahead by 12.2%.

You have to slide the line along the trendline with your mouse to find the averages for different dates during the course of the race.
 

besada

Banned
She's actually leading by 24.3% in the RCP aggregate and 30.9% in the HuffPo aggregate.

In fact, in the link you provided, on August 19th, 2007, she's leading by 12.2%. That's not really comparable and goes back to Aaron's point?
EHcpheb.jpg

I'm not seeing a poll on the 19th of 2007. There's a FOX poll a couple days later at 12, surrounded by polls with much higher leads, including a 21 point poll. Aaron attempted to make the point that things are very different, when they really aren't that different. If what he meant is there might be a 2% to 3% difference, that wasn't clear by the language he employed.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Are you looking at the top numbers in the box? That shows the end of the race, and its Obama who is ahead by 12.2%.

You have to slide the line along the trendline with your mouse to find the averages for different dates during the course of the race.


EHcpheb.jpg

I'm not seeing a poll on the 19th of 2007. There's a FOX poll a couple days later at 12, surrounded by polls with much higher leads, including a 21 point poll. Aaron attempted to make the point that things are very different, when they really aren't that different. If what he meant is there might be a 2% to 3% difference, that wasn't clear by the language he employed.

HAAAA August is 8, not 7. Wow, it's late. Ignore me. I still don't think the aggregate's 17.9% difference is exactly comparable to Clinton's lead in both RCP and HuffPo now, but I've already made enough of an idiot of myself not knowing months, so I'll leave the numbers for tomorrow.

I'll keep this thought, though:

Obama was able to broaden his coalition from white, educated liberals to also include African-American voters. That seems less likely for Bernie considering Bernie's constituency in Vermont and the fact that Obama was actually a black man (and Clinton was beating Obama with black voters for quite some time until right before Iowa). But that could change -- that's the biggest hurdle in turns of coalition building that Bernie has. I'm dubious of his ability to emulate Obama's successful coalition going into less-white states than Iowa or New Hampshire.
 

Wall

Member
Yes. I did. To August 19th, 2007 where Clinton is at 36.5% and Obama is at 24.3%.



I'm looking at the aggregate polling, which is what I'm assuming you're speaking to. Click on the graph and track the mouse to today, 8 years ago to see what the aggregate polling was, if we're trying to compare apples to apples. That's not really comparable to the aggregate polling from the same exact day 8 years later, especially not if we are also looking at the HuffPo aggregate. I'm assuming we're talking about polling aggregates versus an individual poll, since we've all decided those are generally a better way to view trends.

At this point, things are very different. Things are different with endorsements (ESPECIALLY endorsements), things are different in aggregate polling in the national race, they're different in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. That may change! Who knows. But at this point, it's not really comparable.

I am looking at the website the link Besada provided leads to. I see a Fox poll from 8/21 to 8/22 that has Clinton leading by 12. I don't see a poll on the 19th. The average of the aggregate polls for the 19th is Clinton 39.3, Obama 21.4. Her lead actually grew to almost 30 points in October and November.

I don't know what the data from the Huffpost aggregator shows, but I can't imagine there would be a big difference because both aggregators work from mostly the same sources.

I'm not sure about that other stuff you said. We'll know for sure once the primaries start in earnest.

Edit: Didn't see your response. I should go to bed too.
 

besada

Banned
At this point, things are very different. Things are different with endorsements (ESPECIALLY endorsements), things are different in aggregate polling in the national race, they're different in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. That may change! Who knows. But at this point, it's not really comparable.
I wasn't speaking about any of those things, simply the contention regarding how much she was leading. Other things are certainly very different.

Edit: I kept thinking it was 9, so don't feel bad.

Obama was able to broaden his coalition from white, educated liberals to also include African-American voters. That seems less likely for Bernie considering Bernie's constituency in Vermont and the fact that Obama was actually a black man (and Clinton was beating Obama with black voters for quite some time until right before Iowa). But that could change -- that's the biggest hurdle in turns of coalition building that Bernie has. I'm dubious of his ability to emulate Obama's successful coalition going into less-white states than Iowa or New Hampshire.
I agree that Sanders has real problems on the minority front, in particular. But he's also not a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama, so some of the differences cut both ways. Bernie gets to skip all the "he's a Muslim/he's a foreigner" stuff and get right to being called a dirty socialist. I think it's a long shot that Bernie could win the nom, but it was a long shot for Obama at this point too. Maybe the length of the shot is different, but we heard a lot of the same stuff about inelectability last time, too, so it's difficult not to get at least a little sense of deja vu.

I just hope people remember that they have more in common than the things that separate them, and try and keep things a little more civil than they have been. Nothing frustrates an old Dem more than our traditional circular firing squad.
 
That's not actually true, though. At this point in 2007, she was leading Obama by somewhere between 18-20 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

She's currently leading Sanders by about the same, 18-20 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Everyone's welcome to their opinions, but let's try to not use our own facts, particularly when they're so damn easy to look up.

Aaron was probably also talking to the 'invisible primary' portion of the nominating process. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/

Hillary is far and away the leader this cycle in that race. She was in 2008 as well but then Barrack happened with obvious caveats*. Bernie is no Barrack, for obvious reasons.

*Interestingly, Barrack was initially pushed by some in the Democratic establishment to run so he had some substantial support coming in. There is no sign that the establishment is as fractured this time.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
Quick, someone help me out because I'm dumb. The US spends way more than the average country on healthcare despite its shit on toast system. Conceivably, is it possible to actually save money by going universal? I've read Warren Buffett advocate it because he feels our system encourages over-utilization of specialists and constant expensive testing and that's what is killing us. So, could we save money and like, not bankrupt citizens?
 

Kill3r7

Member
Quick, someone help me out because I'm dumb. The US spends way more than the average country on healthcare despite its shit on toast system. Conceivably, is it possible to actually save money by going universal? I've read Warren Buffett advocate it because he feels our system encourages over-utilization of specialists and constant expensive testing and that's what is killing us. So, could we save money and like, not bankrupt citizens?

Single payer is the way to go but there are legitimate economical barriers preventing it from happening. Check out Obama's rationale on WTF.
 

Foffy

Banned
Nobody is perfect. Sounds like he is a fan of Noam Chomsky. I like reading his books but hell if I know if his ideas are correct.

I think trying to protect manual labor is a losing game at this stage though. You could probably delay the inevitable at this point but it's not a path to the future.

He's sat in on talks by Chomsky before, so I'm not surprised that he's influenced there. I am surprised he doesn't hold many of Chomsky's views, though: he thinks the labor system as is amounts nothing more to abuse and exploitation, which it is. But I guess not all politicians can get away with being directly honest on every matter. ;)

Quick, someone help me out because I'm dumb. The US spends way more than the average country on healthcare despite its shit on toast system. Conceivably, is it possible to actually save money by going universal? I've read Warren Buffett advocate it because he feels our system encourages over-utilization of specialists and constant expensive testing and that's what is killing us. So, could we save money and like, not bankrupt citizens?

Our issue is the for-profit motive which is still much of the epicenter of our system. A universal system, in theory, can negate this. In theory.

If a model has to be compromised with Republicans, you bet your ass for-profit will still be the main pillar of any system we make. Well get more toasty bread, but it will still have fecal matter all over it. It would still be on a humane level something unedible.

We'd have to create a model to budget it and have it enacted, and the only obstacle from doing it right is the Republican party and monied interests. These will very likely be the same barriers to assured incomes, which will eventually have to happen also.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
We know that Bernie wants single payer. Failing this, he has always wanted atleast a public option to take the monopoly away from the private corps.

I supported a public option in the Obamacare bill, and really was diheartened that Obama never bothered to fight for that even though he said he would, so i'd probably support that in any bill going forward as well.

The employer based system of health insurance most specifically is a bane on life, so universal opt in plans ala medicare for all would be the best possible thing to subvert that.

There will be crazy people who might complain, but old people should not be the only ones who get free health care.
 

Foffy

Banned
We know that Bernie wants single payer. Failing this, he has always wanted atleast a public option to take the monopoly away from the private corps.

I supported a public option in the Obamacare bill, and really was diheartened that Obama never bothered to fight for that even though he said he would, so i'd probably support that in any bill going forward as well.

The employer based system of health insurance most specifically is a bane on life, so universal opt in plans ala medicare for all would be the best possible thing to subvert that.

There will be crazy people who might complain, but old people should not be the only ones who get free health care.

The health care situation is also why I'm not fully in support of Hillary. I know nothing of her plan at present. Is her endgame single payer, or just an expansion of the ACA? ACA is absolutely not enough, for it has failed to handle any of the actual problems our system has. Sure, more people are covered, but they're covered in a fucking terrible framework that the rest of the world can still stare in shock about how barbaric we are when it comes to this topic. The ACA should be a stopgap before we go the whole way, which is what Sanders has said and wishes to produce. To Obama's credit, he agrees with Sanders on this issue: the endgame must be single payer. You and I can agree the way we're getting there is pretty terrible, but the key is to not settle, and almost all of our problems are caused by settling. This is what I've meant by settling for less in my earlier posts: we create solutions that are only responses to issues, but never, ever solve the problems that produced the issues, which only risks metastization of even more issues. The ACA did not fix the real problems of our system in any conceivable way; it only fixed an issue of non-joiners to our system, which itself isn't the root of the problem to begin with. Raising the minimum wage is a similar issue, for it only works for those in the labor system, failing to address the "have nots" who are in poverty specifically because of the mandation of labor in the first place. Band-aids on bullet wounds all around.

Granted, I have bigger issues with Hillary, such as her oligarchical ties to big banks and potentially her stance on the unfathomably awful TPP, and those are big enough that I would feel shame in supporting her in any sincere way. She can literally be on point with Sanders on every other issue, but those are so big and so toxic all I see is a big red flag.
 
You realize we won't have single payer anytime soon, even if Sanders becomes president right? I agree Obama didn't fight enough for it but the fact remains that single payer wasn't going to pass with blue dog democrats and Joe Lieberman involved in congress. The bill is compromised because that's what it took to pass. Which is something that Sanders (and Ron Paul) fanboys don't seem to understand. If you want to change that you need to change Washington, sweeping out bad representatives and senators is essential. It's not hard to do that to the opposing party (see: 2008 when Obama stirred a wave election), but how do you sweep out the worst of your own party? That's harder.

Ultimately the ACA is a pretty obvious trojan horse for single payer in the future; the framework is in place (expanded/improved Medicaid or Medicare for all) to get it done. The law is far from perfect but to outright dismiss it is stupid. This isn't a fantasy: I'll take the ACA over nothing, which is what we would have gotten with an all or nothing approach.

Sanders is a fringe candidate who would hurt the democrat ticket nationwide. He is not Obama, who managed to get a ton of democrats elected. Nor is he Hillary who should also be able to increase turnout.
 
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