Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Looks like the NDP will be running a star candidate in the riding Justin Trudeau is running in.
http://montrealgazette.com/news/loc...or-the-ndp-in-papineau-against-justin-trudeau
What are the chances that he actually loses that riding.
He won a pretty healthy margin in 2011; the national swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The provincial swing is clearly going to be in his favour since then. The only real challenge would be if Bloc support in the riding collapsed quite badly and it all went to the NDP (as Trudeau didn't get a majority in either election and the combined Bloc+NDP vote share would be). In general I am pretty suspicious of "star candidates" writ large. I abiding theory in parliamentary systems is that people largely vote for parties, not candidates, and that's where I am. Not that it doesn't matter at all, but I'm suspicious when people think it's going to make the difference.
Leaders do lose their seats, but normally when their parties get whooped.
A complete history of party leaders losing their seats in Canada, since the formation of the NDP
- 2011 Ignatieff (Liberals down 43 seats, down 7%)
- 2011 Duceppe (Bloc down 43 seats, down 6%)
- 1993 Campbell (PCs down 154 seats, down 27%)
- 1980 Roy (SoCred annihilated all seats lost, down 3%)
- 1974 Lewis (NPD down 15 seats, down 3%)
- 1968 Douglas (NPD vote and seat share didn't change, but Douglas' seat got dissolved and he got hosed on the new seat's district)
So, I guess my question do you would be do you expect the Liberals to lose seats and votes?