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[ErasureAcer]

Bernie takes leads from Hillary in Iowa

Bernie has been up 7-7-9 in the last three NH polls. People were calling the first of those 7 point leads an outlier. I'm sure they'll say the same now with this poll now that he's leading in Iowa.

My post from 8-30-2015 in Poligaf:

Only a few more weeks of the Summer of Sanders guys. Did you all have fun? Cuz things are just getting started.

Up next:

Fall of Clinton. Hillary Clinton loses front-runner status to Bernie.
Winter of Warren. Elizabeth Warren endorses Bernie and starts to campaign with him.
Lord of the Spring: Bernie secures enough delegates to claim the Democratic nomination.
Summer of Sanity: Bernie leads the national polls by 20 percent over his Republican opponent.
Fall of the Wall: The electorate tears down the Republican wall by flipping both chambers of congress.
Winter of Winning: Bernie and Elizabeth take the keys to the White House and save our planet.

ronpaul.gif

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Too bad he's running behind Biden nationally. A guy whose not even campaigning yet.

 

[Wafflecakes]

..and Trump is leading the republicans.

Neither is a serious candidate.

 

[teruterubozu]

..and Trump is leading the republicans.

Neither is a serious candidate.

Who is at this point? Hillary is only serious by default and so is Jeb. Ugh.

 

[Chariot]

..and Trump is leading the republicans.

Neither is a serious candidate.

I believe in both of them. They can do it. Especially America, home of Hollywood, should know better than to bet against the underdogs. Go, split-screen training montage, Sanders and Trump!

 

[Wafflecakes]

Who is at this point? Hillary is only serious by default and so is Jeb. Ugh.

Kasich and Rubio. Probably Biden if he jumps in.

There are plenty of serious candidates. Serious = people who joined the race to win, not to draw attention to themselves or their issues.

Hell, my guess is that Sanders would pull out or dial it back if it looked like he might actually win. Unlike his supporters, he seems like a reasonable guy who knows he has no chance in the general and will simply hurt his own causes by being the general election candidate for the party.

 

[Damerman]

just saw this...

 

[Log4Girlz]

Imagine if Warren agrees to be his vice presidential candidate. Unstoppable.

 

[Kathian]

..and Trump is leading the republicans.

Neither is a serious candidate.

What's our definition of serious candidate? Honestly its like people have forgotten US presidential elections prior to 2008. Heck there was only one serious candidate then.

SARAH PALIN WAS A VP CANDIDATE

I mean who in the Republicans is a serious candidate? And why is Clinton a serious candidate? What's her noteworthy action whilst in cabinet?

 

[teruterubozu]

Kasich and Rubio. Probably Biden if he jumps in.

There are plenty of serious candidates. Serious = people who joined the race to win, not to draw attention to themselves or their issues.

Well if the serious can't lead the polls by being serious, then...why be serious? The Palin strategy has some legitimacy these days.

 

[Africanus]

..and Trump is leading the republicans.

Neither is a serious candidate.

I actually have more faith in Trump than Sanders at this point in time.

 

[Ecotic]

Yep, Hillary is in trouble. If Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire the nomination fight will go to July again. Maybe that's not a bad thing, it'll register Democrats nationwide and get the party message out, like what happened in '08.

 

[teruterubozu]

Yep, Hillary is in trouble. If Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire the nomination fight will go to July again. Maybe that's not a bad thing, it'll register Democrats nationwide and get the party message out, like what happened in '08.

You mean the rejection of Clinton?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Yep, Hillary is in trouble. If Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire the nomination fight will go to July again. Maybe that's not a bad thing, it'll register Democrats nationwide and get the party message out, like what happened in '08.

How does someone whose up 20 points nationally not get the nomination until July? She's winning Florida and SC in polls out this week by 20 points each. Of course those polls don't have threads.

Then you got endorsements and delegates which is basically hundreds vs 0 or close to zero last I checked.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Well if the serious can't lead the polls by being serious, then...why be serious? The Palin strategy has some legitimacy these days.

Polls are just a reflection of what the current bandwagon. How short your memory is... EVERY election has random loons who pop to the top of the polls for a while. This isn't some sort of miracle revelation of the 2016 campaign.

...and there was no Palin "strategy" and comparing her to the general election candidates is foolish. She was a VP pick.... and you don't vote for the VP.

 

[boiled goose]

Kasich and Rubio. Probably Biden if he jumps in.

There are plenty of serious candidates. Serious = people who joined the race to win, not to draw attention to themselves or their issues.

Hell, my guess is that Sanders would pull out or dial it back if it looked like he might actually win. Unlike his supporters, he seems like a reasonable guy who knows he has no chance in the general and will simply hurt his own causes by being the general election candidate for the party.

He leads most Republicans in head to head polls. You are just talking out of your ass.

Polls are just a reflection of what the current bandwagon. How short your memory is... EVERY election has random loons who pop to the top of the polls for a while. This isn't some sort of miracle revelation of the 2016 campaign.

...and there was no Palin "strategy" and comparing her to the general election candidates is foolish. She was a VP pick.... and you don't vote for the VP.

Wrong. That was only 2012 and is largely considered an anomaly.

Also, people actually support Bernie because of his policy positions, not media hype.

 

[Ecotic]

How does someone whose up 20 points nationally not get the nomination until July? She's winning Florida and SC in polls out this week by 20 points each. Of course those polls don't have threads.

Winning an early state will reset the national polls overnight, especially if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. If Hillary loses them both she'll lose a substantial amount of support.

 

[teruterubozu]

Polls are just a reflection of what the current bandwagon. How short your memory is... EVERY election has random loons who pop to the top of the polls for a while. This isn't some sort of miracle revelation of the 2016 campaign.

...and there was no Palin "strategy" and comparing her to the general election candidates is foolish. She was a VP pick.... and you don't vote for the VP.

I kind of agree with the too early thing - yes, there was Gingrinch, Perry, alan Keyes, etc, in other early polls in the past. But I think Trump may be bucking that trend a bit.
Basically it comes down to Jeb ousting Trump, which seems unlikely with every passing day.

 

[Chariot]

You mean the rejection of Clinton?

I think this is exactly what he means. Just because she is big and strong and has mean friends with power, doesn't mean she can't be defeated. Just remember when everybody though Sweden would slaughter Brandenburg, which ended in defeat and the rise of Brandenburg to the mighty kingdom of Prussia.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Winning an early state will reset the national polls overnight, especially if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire. If Hillary loses them both she'll lose a substantial amount of support.

Sounds like a lot of what ifs to me. You know who else won early states? Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee in recent memory.

 

[Wafflecakes]

He leads most Republicans in head to head polls. You are just talking out of your ass.

Look in the mirror.

Most Americans outside of the early primary states don't even know or care who Sanders is at this point. They just see it as Democrat vs Republicans, and because he is a new face he doesn't have any baggage like Hillary weighing him down.

The moment he is the general election candidate and people see that he is to the left of the Democratic party the game is over.

 

[boiled goose]

Sounds like a lot of what ifs to me.

We also have yet to have a debate.

Look in the mirror.

Most Americans outside of the early primary states don't even know or care who Sanders is at this point. They just see it as Democrat vs Republicans, and because he is a new face he doesn't have any baggage like Hillary weighing him down.

The moment he is the general election candidate and people see that he is to the left of the Democratic party the game is over.

Issue by issue Americans are center-left nationally. Other than misinformation and propaganda why would Americans vote against their own interests and preferences?

 

[ErasureAcer]

How does someone whose up 20 points nationally not get the nomination until July? She's winning Florida and SC in polls out this week by 20 points each. Of course those polls don't have threads.

Then you got endorsements and delegates which is basically hundreds vs 0 or close to zero last I checked.

No one has ever lost the nomination after winning the delegate count by voters. Super Delegates will fall in line if the people demand Bernie.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

No one has ever lost the nomination after winning the delegate count by voters. Super Delegates will fall in line if the people demand Bernie.

Just saying. You show me Sanders winning a state that's not incredibly white and maybe I'll actually be convinced of something. Hell, show me him not being behind nationally by a large amount.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Wrong. That was only 2012 and is largely considered an anomaly.

Cute attempt.

Huckabee had all the hype for a while in 2008 running on a pure evangelical drive. Howard Dean tried to be the uber liberal candidate in 2004 and popped to the top for a while before going down.

In fact, there hasn't been an election since the beginning of the internet age that hasn't had a one or two candidates who had early surges that then vanished as the election got closer.

Issue by issue Americans are center-left nationally. Other than misinformation and propaganda why would Americans vote against their own interests and preferences?

Do they need another reason? Have you ever been to America?

Socialist is a toxic word in American politics. Sanders is DOA in the general.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

You guys are gonna get much worse as time goes on?

 

[ThLunarian]

This is the most interesting primary season I can remember. Both sides have some crazy stuff going on. The next year is going to be entertaining

 

[Ecotic]

Sounds like a lot of what ifs to me. You know who else won early states? Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee in recent memory.

First, they didn't win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Secondly they had a crowded field that prevented them from consolidating the vote later. Huckabee almost won South Carolina if it hadn't been for Fred Thompson if I recall correctly, and Santorum had Gingrich to split the vote with. At the moment it's just a two person race on the Democratic side.

Hillary is running as the inevitable candidate, she would lose a lot of support if she lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and was no longer the inevitable candidate. The bad press would be devastating.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

This is the most interesting primary season I can remember. Both sides have some crazy stuff going on. The next year is going to be entertaining

The Dem side is only exciting if you assumed Clinton would win the primary season like a sitting President. So the media is hyping it up when it turns out, hey, she might actually not win 100% of all the contests by a landslide.

Biden running is the big news. He's already looking to take the 2nd spot if he truly runs.

First, they didn't win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Secondly they had a crowded field that prevented them from consolidating the vote later. Huckabee almost won South Carolina if it hadn't been for Fred Thompson if I recall correctly, and Santorum had Gingrich to split the vote with. At the moment it's just a two person race on the Democratic side.

Hillary is running as the inevitable candidate, she would lose a lot of support if she lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and was no longer the inevitable candidate. The bad press would be devastating.

Still a bunch of what ifs to me. Sander winning NH was always a chance given he's right next door in Vermont. But Iowa is still leaning towards Clinton unless only this poll is what matters. Secondly, the second half of your post is entirely what ifs. The bad news would be so devastating that it changes everything. Do you not see how that's entirely hypothetical?

 

[Foffy]

Imagine if Warren agrees to be his vice presidential candidate. Unstoppable.

It would be unfathomable to see the wombo combo of intelligence and reason within those two as a ticket.

Part of me fears America is literally too stupid to accept them. ):

 

[Kusagari]

First, they didn't win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Secondly they had a crowded field that prevented them from consolidating the vote later. Huckabee almost won South Carolina if it hadn't been for Fred Thompson if I recall correctly, and Santorum had Gingrich to split the vote with. At the moment it's just a two person race on the Democratic side.

Hillary is running as the inevitable candidate, she would lose a lot of support if she lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and was no longer the inevitable candidate. The bad press would be devastating.

Bernie's fatal flaw outside of Iowa and NH is minority support and there's hardly a guarantee that a win in both early states causes a shift for him there. He could still get dismantled in states like SC.

 

[Ecotic]

Still a bunch of what ifs to me. Sander winning NH was always a chance given he's right next door in Vermont. But Iowa is still leaning towards Clinton unless only this poll is what matters. Secondly, the second half of your post is entirely what ifs. The bad news would be so devastating that it changes everything. Do you not see how that's entirely hypothetical?

It's what always happens in the primaries, I don't know what else to tell you. The winner of Iowa or New Hampshire instantly becomes a contender and the candidate who comes in below expectations gets the stink of a loser on them.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Imagine if Warren agrees to be his vice presidential candidate. Unstoppable.

How many electoral votes does Mass have?

*googles*

*Does maths*

End result of election:

Bush 526 EV's - Sanders 11 EV's



No president since Reagan or Johnson has won the election while on the more extreme side of their parties idealogies. Even Bush was more center than the average republican. Clinton was the definition of a conservative leaning democrat.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

It's what always happens in the primaries, I don't know what else to tell you. The winner of Iowa or New Hampshire instantly becomes a contender and the candidate who comes in below expectations gets the stink of a loser on them.

Do you have any evidence it's what always happens?

 

[Des0lar]

How many electoral votes does Mass have?

*googles*

*Does maths*

End result of election:

Bush 526 EV's - Sanders 11 EV's



No president since Reagan or Johnson has won the election while on the more extreme side of their parties idealogies. Even Bush was more center than the average republican. Clinton was the definition of a conservative leaning democrat.

People still cling to the idea that Bush will win the nomination?

 

[Grizzlyjin]

Bernie's fatal flaw outside of Iowa and NH is minority support and there's hardly a guarantee that a win in both early states causes a shift for him there. He could still get dismantled in states like SC.

Yeah, I just don't see it moving away from Clinton even if Sanders wins both Iowa and NH. Biden running is a game changer since I would imagine that would eat away more from Clinton than Sanders.

 

[Wafflecakes]

People still cling to the idea that Bush will win the nomination?

Meant Bush 1/2 and Bill Clinton.

Bush 3 is even more centrist, and yes... he is the likely candidate. GOP is infamous for coming around to the establishment candidate in the end.

 

[maquiladora]

It's going to be Trump v Sanders isnt it?

 

[Maledict]

It's what always happens in the primaries, I don't know what else to tell you. The winner of Iowa or New Hampshire instantly becomes a contender and the candidate who comes in below expectations gets the stink of a loser on them.

In 1992 Clinton didn't win in Iowa or New Hampshire...

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

In 1992 Clinton didn't win in Iowa or New Hampshire...

It happens 100% of the time, sometimes.

 

[Wafflecakes]

It's going to be Trump v Sanders isnt it?

Only way Sanders would have a shot.

...but no. Trump won't last that long.

He has deep pockets, but there are dozens of billionaires on the GOP side supporting candidates, and most of them are vastly more wealthy than Trump.

Trump will run out of money/steam before too long.

 

[Ecotic]

Do you have any evidence it's what always happens?

Sure, the last two Democratic primaries. Obama became a contender after winning Iowa and Hillary badly damaged after coming in third. Kerry won Iowa and rose in the polls and Dean came in below expectations and flamed out.

 

[teruterubozu]

Yeah, I just don't see it moving away from Clinton even if Sanders wins both Iowa and NH. Biden running is a game changer since I would imagine that would eat away more from Clinton than Sanders.

Losing Iowa and NH would still be a HUGE PR blow and morale crusher for the Clinton campaign though. Obama came into national prominence when he won Iowa and NH. She will still likely win the nom, but enthusiasm will be low.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Sure, the last two Democratic primaries. Obama became a contender after winning Iowa and Hillary badly damaged after coming in third. Kerry won Iowa and rose in the polls and Dean came 8n below expectations and flamed out.

That's not "always happens"

Losing Iowa and NH would still be a HUGE PR blow and morale crusher for the Clinton campaign though. Obama came into national prominence when he won Iowa and NH. She will still likely win the nom, but enthusiasm will be low.

He didn't win both.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Sure, the last two Democratic primaries. Obama became a contender after winning Iowa and Hillary badly damaged after coming in third. Kerry won Iowa and rose in the polls and Dean came 8n below expectations and flamed out.

You forget to mention that NH and Iowa fairly rarely vote the same way in the primaries if they are competitive. They are obstinate to the point where I almost feel like they vote opposite just to spite one another.

All Hillary need to do is win one of the first three states, take that momentum into the south on super Tuesday with her $$$ and Sanders is done.

 

[Ecotic]

In 1992 Clinton didn't win in Iowa or New Hampshire...

That's not an ideal comparison, Iowa went uncontested because Tom Harkin was the native son.

 

[teruterubozu]

He didn't win both.

OK he tied NH. Still fucked Hillary up though, put her in major panic mode.

 

[Grizzlyjin]

It's what always happens in the primaries, I don't know what else to tell you. The winner of Iowa or New Hampshire instantly becomes a contender and the candidate who comes in below expectations gets the stink of a loser on them.

That is true, but being a contender should be a given since it is basically a two horse race at this point. It isn't all that rare to lose both states and win the nomination. With Clinton's front runner status, winning Iowa and NH would have played as the inevitable coming true. It definitely props up Sanders' campaign but I think he'll still have road blocks in more diverse states. Honestly, NH and Iowa are being held as a way to legitimize Sanders' chances, where Clinton could shoulder shrug both and still get it with ease. And then there's Biden...

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Yep, Hillary is in trouble. If Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire the nomination fight will go to July again. Maybe that's not a bad thing, it'll register Democrats nationwide and get the party message out, like what happened in '08.

Wake me up when minorities start to care about Bernie, till then winning the two most white states in the democratic party isn't much to hold hope on.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The gender gap is quite pronounced.

Do you have any evidence it's what always happens?

President Tom Harkin and President Paul Tsongas.

Sure, the last two Democratic primaries. Obama became a contender after winning Iowa and Hillary badly damaged after coming in third.

Obama became a contender when he began garnering the support of black voters by massive margins. Until such time as Sanders begins registering with black and latino voters there is no path to nomination.

I wake up and see two new poll threads in off topic. I thought we weren't supposed to be posting new threads for new polls?

Notwithstanding the whole early polls being relatively meaningless etc thing, it's a reasonably notable result - as I don't think any prior poll has shown them essentially tied in IA.