September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
slavesnyder
Member
Zughe, please, birthday is over!
Urghhh fine! Party pooper!
Primethius
Banned
They just aren't as interesting now that we continuously get less and less data until cream or someone else steps in.
It sucks.
Huh, guess he really was an alt. Or the mods got tired of him challenging everyone's opinions. Either way, let's move on. Don't wanna get this thread locked.
Darth Smurf X
Member
Well... I think the issue here is that the vast majority of posters in this thread believe the PS4 wins September. There were what... 4 people -tops- who posted XBO coming out ahead? So, you can't really have a lengthy/controversial discussion when almost everyone is in agreement.
October will be inter... I can't do it.
Oh look! My Uncharted Collection disc arrived!!!!!
October will be inter... I can't do it.
Oh look! My Uncharted Collection disc arrived!!!!!
CosmicQueso
Member
There might be some craziness over the next couple of months, but it's kinda clear (to me at least) that starting next year it'll just get boring. We basically have 2 big platforms, 2 small/declining platforms, all with sales trajectories basically settled.
At least last gen there were as many as 7 viable (more or less) platforms at one point.
Yeah, I don't think we'll get past 5 pages during the "pre season" months of next year. But at least this holiday season will be interesting!
Yup. We may as well turn this into an App Annie thread soon
What will be interesting next year is to follow what Nintendo are up to, especially off the back of their first mobile game which we should be hearing about soon.
CosmicQueso
Member
Imagine a scenario where this kind of announcement comes out from Nintendo... "Nintendo's first release on iOS far exceeded expectations. We expect the iOS release to be the leading revenue driver in software this year. We look forward to releasing future products on iOS."
Just imagine the threads.
Mario Runner 2: Mario Party
Ever since Aqua left... Many of the SalesAgers followed her. It's lead to a far less lovely thread. Frankly it's depressing.
The Mad Draklor
Member
gundamkyoukai
Member
Of course NPD threads getting boring .
MS is no longer the under dog that winning , Sony the king is not falling down and Nintendo new ideas did not work out .
Then we getting less info than before and info we getting becoming less useful .
All the while waiting for our mobile and streaming overlords to take over .
MS is no longer the under dog that winning , Sony the king is not falling down and Nintendo new ideas did not work out .
Then we getting less info than before and info we getting becoming less useful .
All the while waiting for our mobile and streaming overlords to take over .
Polip Fawn
Banned
HAH! True story. You the real MVP.
I just finished telling them to leave you alone and you go and do this
Lol I got my dates mixed up, fixed.
Polip Fawn
Banned
Well only a few of those bundles will be widely available. MM is the reason why I think Wii U will get a boost personally. I mean not big, I don't think there's any way for the Wii U to recover, even in its second top selling market.
US is the best Wii U market.
Missing Aqua
But otoh it wasn't worth her job and/or sanity tbh.
Hopefully Cream can continue giving pies for the foreseeable future.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Two bans in an NPD thread, predictable and holy moly I haven't edited my predictions in!?
To be fair, Polip got banned for calling people morons in an election thread. Under a week before he became a member.
Edit: At least that's what I think did him in.
He was an alt like I've been saying for a while.
October, November and December will be interesting simply for the fact it'll be awesome to see how much both consoles sell.
But yea after that. It gets boring because we already know which console will lead month after month. Especially with the PS4 launching one of it's heavy hitters early in the year.
But yea after that. It gets boring because we already know which console will lead month after month. Especially with the PS4 launching one of it's heavy hitters early in the year.
slavesnyder
Member
Agree. It will be watching the gap widen from month to month as far as I can see.
First goalpost, and a question for our experts:
When will the gap surpass the all-time-high from last autumn?
Already this year?
NPD threads might be not as funny as they were a while ago, but all these depressed comments... Pew.
CosmicQueso
Member
KOEI has a Q1 release next year?
How come you think PS4 will come out on top in Nov and Dec? Halo 5 will continue to sell consoles throughout the holidays.
Still interested in NPD regardless if they aren't as entertaining
slavesnyder
Member
there is a difference here.
In the first month people will buy a console for Halo.
After that the people who want to buy an Xbox will buy Halo with it.
Simple. Their 3rd party marketing agreements. Just watch how much that $350 battlefront bundle sells. Not to mention I see Sony being VERY aggressive with their bundles. I would not be shocked if they did something like buy a $350 UCC bundle and get Fallout 4 free the week it launches.
Giriath_89
Member
If the Xbox bundles stay at their current price, the PS4 will definitely sell the most in Nov and Dec. I think most of us are expecting a $50 cut on all Xbox bundles though?
Even if that happens, I personally think Microsoft's bundles will be too expensive to for sure guarantee the most sales for November and December. The only bundles at $299 will be the Gears of War and LEGO bundles, and I don't think people will find those games especially appealing. At $349 Tomb Raider, Fallout and the GeoW/Rare/Ori bundle will compete with Star Wars, Uncharted and (maybe, if a standard edition is made available) Call of Duty.
Halo will definitely sell, but I think Microsoft should put out a $349 bundle, not just stick to the expensive ($499!) limited edition bundle. Without such a bundle, I expect the PS4 Star Wars bundle will hold by far the most mass market appeal of the $349 bundles.
So my expectations are that PS4 will sell the most at $349 -- and also more limited edition consoles that will all be cheaper than the big Xbox limited edition bundles (Halo, Kinect and Elite). Much seems to me to depend on how well the $299 Xbox bundles do, and differences in retailer and Black Friday deals.
slavesnyder
Member
Well, MS can and will do the same.
The possibilities are endless and it will be fun to watch them juggle with extra games in all possible combinations, just to attract consumers and keeping the price up.
Giriath_89
Member
Xbox Black Friday: Star Wars Battlefront free with every bundle (+Xbox Live/Gift Cards)
Playstation Black Friday: Fallout 4 free with every bundle (+PS Gold/Gift Cards)
DriftingSpirit
Member
Battlefront and CoD bundles will be on full promo during those months. Halo won't be able to stop them.
DriftingSpirit
Member
That is what interests me the most outside of how the PS4 and X1 stack up against one another. I want to see the overall growth relative to last year. I am expecting considerable boosts. Especially for the PS4.
Yeah, PS4 will pretty much fly after this year. I don't see anything else challenging it after Halo 5 comes out.
slavesnyder
Member
And just imagine they find the correct pricepoint for VR...
The big problem for NPD threads is the lack of data.
Unless something pops out of left field, the only way (imo of course) XB1 dominates Nov/ Dec is with another $50 price cut (which I definitely see coming given the weirdo Lego/ GeoW $349 bundles).
yeah, I'm a big fan of knowing NPD data about the past, maybe when current data becomes old we will know more about.
The limited edition Star Wars bundle is going to sell incredibly well this holiday season. It's already started climbing the Amazon hourly charts since the price drop went live. And this is more than a month before it releases. When it launches, it will most likely be the best selling SKU of the holiday season, assuming Sony actually has enough stock to meet the overwhelming demand. Even if it does run out, there is the standard Battlefront bundle at $349, which is still highly tempting since buyers will be getting a new game and PS4 for less than $300 effectively. Simply put, the Star Wars hype this holiday season will blow Halo 5's out of the water.
Despite being $429, I still expect the BO3 bundle to sell really well, just because well, it's Call of Duty. And the PS4 is getting some content ahead of the XB1 this time around, so it will attract many COD fans.
It won't be an official price cut I don't think but I can see retailers offering those bundles for less.
Sangetsu-II
Member
This is why, I think the regular bundle will sell a lot when the LE sells out.
Final Verdict
Member
Yeah, I agree.
I think they messed up a little by not having at least one of their major bundles with the cheaper 500GB option.
But then again, I think they are trying to phase out the 500GB version.
If they had made their big bundles like FO4, and TR avaliable at $350 with a 500GB console, then I think they could have survived this holiday without doing a pricecut, and lose quietly (not by huge margins) thanks to thier game line up.
But now I think they have to do a pricecut just to get their big movers down on par with PS4's big bundles, and even then, I think they will struggle to win the Holiday months.
We are talking about Halo here, it can stop any bundle, price cut, wars etc lol
Sangetsu-II
Member
Halo has met it's Assassin Creed mark on life, it's not what it used to be way back in the day
Final Verdict
Member
Hey man, I freakin love Halo, but let us think rationally here.
Cod is a bigger franchise/IP than Halo
Now if Halo wasn't exclusive, it might would give it a good run for it's money, but the fact remains that Halo is not as mainstream as Cod.
Secondly, Star Wars IP is much bigger than Halo, and probably bigger than Cod though I must admit I don't have actual data to back it up.
In any case, Star Wars Battlefront has the potential to draw in casuals (Who are big star wars fans) that might not normally pick up a console, and Halo definitely does not have that power.
Now I know that neither one is an exclusive like Halo, but past NPD data indicates that 3rd party bundles normally have a bigger impact on sales than exclusive games (Look at Destiny bundle last year).
I realize that Halo is a bit different, but point is that it does not automatically equal a win for xbox.
Halo has met it's Assassin Creed mark on life, it's not what it used to be way back in the day
Fuck I should of put the /s at the end of my comment
Primethius
Banned
There ya go.
lolll
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