September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
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Or give their old system to a little brother/friend and pick up the new Halo 5 version. Sort of like selling it and buying the LE, except just selling it for free.
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James Sawyer Ford
Banned
That's a pretty optimistic outlook, but I'm not seeing as much hype around Halo 5 as with the previous releases. I think there's just too much competition these days and interest in the Halo series is starting to wane.
Of course it'll do "well" compared to most other releases, but I figure this will easily be the worst selling Halo title when it's all said and done.
Given the PS4 price drop and promotional deals with huge titles (CoD & BF), I do not expect the Xbox One to beat the PS4 in November or December like what happened last year. October is likely, but regardless I don't think the margins will be very high either way.
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Halo 5 is going to easily outsell Halo CE and 2.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
Any guesses where Super Mario Maker lands on the top ten?
Its probably safe to say that MGS V will take the top spot, but I'm also interested in seeing how PES and FIFA do.
Pretty sure he's talking release sales.
Its probably safe to say that MGS V will take the top spot, but I'm also interested in seeing how PES and FIFA do.
Pretty sure he's talking release sales.
I agree that the hype isn't at the same levels due to the number of shooters out now in comparison to how things were before Halo Reach, but the hype is still definitely there.
I can't see it doing worse than the original Xbox Halos if the reviews are good. The Xbox One should pass what the original Xbox sold overall sometime late next year.
I think it's still a toss up but if the Xbox One does get November and December then it definitely won't be by anything close to as much as they won by last year; Maybe 100K at most.
Yes they sold that much.......when it was really the only kid on the block
Destiny/COD/battlefront, hell even Fallout 4, too many other shooters out there that offer more (too casuals not hardcore halo lovers)
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Halo CE sold 6+ million, Halo 2 sold 8+ million.
Looking at Halo 2, I can see Halo 5 outselling it, but not by a whole lot.
Halo isn't a yearly series like COD and other multiplats though and should remain relevant for (new) Xbox One owners up until whenever the next Halo game releases as long as the game gets good feedback.
James Sawyer Ford
Banned
I think it's less to do about userbase and more to do about options the userbase has. When Halo 1/2 released, there was basically nothing else it was competing with directly. It set the standard for local and online MP with Halo 2.
Halo isn't the only game in town like it used to be. There's just too many options for other games people are playing.
I also think that Microsoft is being a bit TOO conservative with the series and basically doubling down on the core fanbase. That's fine, and may appeal to long term fans, but I think they risk making changes that could broaden the userbase or bring back interest in those that have left the series.
I think Halo 5's sales will be more in line with what Gears has traditionally sold, which is to say not as much but still good.
This will be the second time a halo game is releasing with in almost a week of a treyarch COD. All I remember last time that happened was a bunch of people sitting on line at GameStop trading in halo 4 for black ops 2, they should have released it the begining of october
This as well, they are catering to the diehards, and not the casual fan base or new people, granted MCC was supposed to bring in new people and we saw what happened with that
For every person that screams "zomg blue team! Kelly! Book references!" There is another 10 people going "huh?"
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Halo 4 was still the fastest selling Halo title in the US for a while.
Halo has a big, dedicated fanbase, and they still sell even with other big games releasing around the same time.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Possible but unlikely.
I see Microsoft prioritizing profit this time around and relying on Halo to primarily carry systems.
MasterSheen
Member
[3DS] 150k
[PS4] 222k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 200k
[PS4] 222k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 200k
Yeah, I don't think Microsoft needs to do a price drop to do well this holiday season.
Fastest selling doesn't tell you much of a story really, except that a given title has a dedicated fanbase which is hungry for the next iteration (which could imply very front loaded sales).
Known data does point to two things:
Sales have seemingly peaked around Halo 3 (overall) at about 10m+, and mainline entries sell FAR better than non mainline (Halo 5 being one of course).
I also tend to think that the Halo fanbase being so hungry for a next title, that a LOT (obviously not all) of them already have an XB1 and got it either at launch or around MCC (if only in order to get in the Halo 5 beta).
We'll see just how big the end of October will be on sales, for now it does not "appear" that there is a lot of inertia tbh, but I may very well be wrong and we'll see an explosion of sales around October 18-20 (7 days from now).
I expect the Lego and Kinect bundles to be rounding errors.
That Lego bundle should have included 3+ Lego games, not the cheapest one of the bunch. Still don't quite get it.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
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...which would make it the fastest. Your numbers are confirming their statement^^
wut?
Halo 3 in 10 days: 3,300,000
Halo 4 in 10 days: less than 3,300,000 ( because it sold those numbers in 25 days)
...am i missed something? :-|
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
wut?
Halo 3 in 10 days: 3,300,000
Halo 4 in 10 days: less than 3,300,000 ( because it sold those numbers in 25 days)
...am i missed something? :-|
Oh, the way you worded it sounded like Halo 3 was "first month" and 4 was the 10 days. My mistake^^ I would have thought the much larger install base would have helped sales...
Welfare
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http://news.xbox.com/2013/07/games-halo-4-top-seller
Also Halo 4 sold more than 5 million by the end of 2012 (does not include bundles/special editions) and Halo 3 sold 4.82 million by the end of 2007, which includes bundles/special editions.
Does Halo V have a chance to get around 40% attach within the same amount of time?
EDIT: The attach would actually be lower by that time as more Xbox Ones are sold this holiday season, actually.
Welfare
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From where I'm expecting the Xbox One to be at the end of 2015, I think Halo 5's attach rate will be more than 40%
Didn't knew that, that's mean Halo 4 sold 1.7 million in December? That's a lot...
XB1 will probabily be at ~11 million, so 40% attach rate maybe is too much, more like 35-37%.
Michael Armbrust
Member
Reading that thread, most people were saying Halo 3 is the game Creamsugar was referencing. Do you have a link saying it was Halo 4?
Final Verdict
Member
IDK, but to me it seems like we have been getting Halo news every of the week whether it be a new interview, article, video, or commercial...
The best time to announce a price drop would be this coming Friday (with the price drop taking effect either Monday or Tuesday 19th/20th.
That way they can capitalize on the Halo 5 hype, and not have angry customers (who bought the $500 H5 console without a price reduction).
Welfare
Member
Oh, hm. I had that under Halo 4 in my archives. However, Halo 4 by June 2013 should be above Halo 3 by June 2008 as the Xbox Wire post says Halo 4 surpassed Halo 3 for sales during each respective launch year (*According to Microsoft retail sales sell-through data for each respective fiscal year).
It did however stop doing so well as Aqua posted once that Halo 3 is still > Halo 4.
I think they will bundle it. Probably February or March. They don't really have any other big games during those months and a halo 5 bundle at 350 would do pretty good
Final Verdict
Member
In the US?
B/c I thought they were past that WW a while ago....
40% sounds high, even for Halo.
If the X1 is at 15M by the end of 2015, then it would need to sell roughly 6 M in two months WW to have a 40% attach rate by the end of 2015.
If the X1 is at 18M by the end of 2015, then it would need to sell roughly 7.2M by the end of 2015.....
Both of those figures are likely to be surpassed for Lifetime sales, but for 2015, Halo 5 would have to be god-like to perform that well.
Just my opinion though.
Our last proper estimate for WW shipped numbers was over 14 million (iirc), it's hard to nail exactly how many have been sold through, though.
Michael Armbrust
Member
Yeah Halo 4 sales probably dropped off pretty strongly after XBO released. It didn't have a full generation's worth of legs like Halo 3.
I'm worried Halo 5 will be received poorly. It's a huge shakeup to the franchise with lots of classic features removed and lots of new features added. It's my wildcard of holiday sales. Will definitely have to wait till launch before I can make a confident prediction.
While I'm posting in this thread, guess I should do September predictions.
[3DS] 120k
[PS4] 505k
[WIU] 99k
[XB1] 345k
Welfare
Member
^ Make sure to add the k's
I'm talking about the US when it comes to 40% attach rate.
I'm talking about the US when it comes to 40% attach rate.
Final Verdict
Member
Ohhh, ok...well that sounds more achievable.
BTW, what are current NPD figures for X1?
Is it around 8M or so?
Thanks, that is what I was thinking of...
He was probably talking about NPD...
I think that's the first 500k+ I've seen predicted. Think MGSV did that much work?
Michael Armbrust
Member
Thanks!
orochi91 said 520k up above, so I'm at least not the highest!
Destiny was able to get PS4 to 538k last year.
Taken King+MGSV+yoy growth I feel should be able to push somewhat comparable numbers.
I dunno if they would push quite that far, but fair enough point.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, the Halo commercial showed up for TWD. I saw the new PS4 price point too.
I could see that happening. It would help during the slower months before Quantum Break.
DriftingSpirit
Member
When did the MCC get bundled? Wasn't it early this year?
Welfare
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It's over 7.8m as of August. It'll be over 8 million after this NPD.
March.
NPD thread = US
That's true but neogaf has people from all over the world so they forget sometimes.
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