September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

Shenmue said:
Hmmm the 349 price drop has done well in October but not amazingly well right? I think when Xbox had their price drop the console shot up the charts more? Anyone remember the Amazon info from around that time?
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Edit: Never mind the Xbox One price drop was Nov 2014

__________
No

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#2

Xbox One was #35 , #38 & #78 October 2014


PS4 is #22 , #26 , #29 , #52 & #64 October 2015


http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1
 
slavesnyder said:
We can observe nature and read the signs.
That's not bulletproof, but better than just barking opinions.
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Twitter is mostly based on short-term hype with games though. Around the near launch it moves up and around launch it explodes, and then it dies off and goes poof or transfers to another new game. Trends further back are random.
 
Tivor Tontomo said:
Twitter is mostly based on short-term hype with games though. Around the near launch it moves up and around launch it explodes, and then it dies off and goes poof or transfers to another new game. Trends further back are random.
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We can agree that twitter impact does not equal sales. (Same as amazon hourlies don't tell much about the monthly result). Twitter is per definition short-living.
But we can note what news or product leaves a splash. And if one splash is bigger than the other it might be because one product creates more hype/interest.
In this particular case it's pretty clear where the spontanious attention goes. It's like testing reflexes.
This is, as you stated correctly, no guarantee for later success. But if I was a publisher I would prefer the higher twitter-count any given day. It tells me that my product creates emotional response. Not a bad thing in the gaming industry.
never thought I would ever defend Twitter.
 
That Uncharted PS4 bundle is still selling more than Halo XB1 bundle on hourly and is catching up to it on monthly 36 vs 49. Yesterday it was 37 vs 52

Things are getting more interesting :)
 
Sangetsu-II said:
The hourly just updated lol.

FML
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Strange. For me, it says the Uncharted Bundle is #23 and the Halo 5 Bundle is #24.

Edit- Doh! Stupid me. I was looking at the actual Uncharted game. Yup. It's #24 for the Halo 5 Bundle and #26 for the Uncharted Bundle. The Last of Us Bundle is #12 and is the top console on the chart.
 
So the Halo 5 bundle is still ahead of the Uncharted bundle on the Amazon hourly charts the last time I checked. It's pretty much expected since we are just a few days from release. I don't think it will pass the TLOU bundle, though, but I could be wrong. In fact, it will be more interesting if it did for a few days. The predictions would be harder to make, then. ;)
 
Missed the predictions, ah well. That's what I get for delaying them. Doesn't really matter though, I can't judge the rest of the months (including this one) at all.

Do we know ahead of time what day the October NPD drops?
 
Halo Bundle is in the yearly charts at 82. That's not bad.
It really seems to have added up sales since preorder start.
Strangely, I cannot see TLOU-console. It should be in there somewhere, too.
 
slavesnyder said:
Halo Bundle is in the yearly charts at 82. That's not bad.
It really seems to have added up sales since preorder start.
Strangely, I cannot see TLOU-console. It should be in there somewhere, too.
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But that's the Halo MCC bundle at #82.... Also, the Halo 5 bundle is now at #17 on the hourly charts. Now I think it may actually pass the TLOU bundle for a few days, at least.
 
Primethius said:
This is who we are now. Amazon chart watchers.

Damn you NPD!
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We are desperate. I even check the Amazon hourly at least 4 times a day now...

Dam it NPD!

3VavD50.png


Current monthly of SKUs that will count in October

#24: PS4 TTK (might drop a few places, sold out)
#26: PS4 TLOU (will probably gain a few places)
#36: XB1 Halo 5 (will probably gain a few places with the last few days push)
#49: PS4 UC Collection (will probably gain the most for PS4 SKus)

The way things look right now, even if the Halo 5 bundle sells well for a few days (I expect it to drop after the 20th), it still looks like the PS4 might win the month handily, unless something bonkers and unexpected happens.

There is -no- other XB1 SKU in the top monthly currently beside Forza (#88), and in the hourly the other bundles are at the very bottom (Madden has dropped out entirely. The other bundles are doing terrible - the Lego one in particular at 700+, but also the pre orders for the Kinect one at 500+)
 
Elandyll said:
The way things look right now, even if the Halo 5 bundle sells well for a few days (I expect it to drop after the 20th), it still looks like the PS4 might win the month handily, unless something bonkers and unexpected happens.
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Stay focused. This is only Amazon, a sample of the market.
If any big retailer does crazy stuff, this could change the whole picture.
But this month I have not heard much about anything like that, strangely.
 
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