Since the other usual extrapolation images have already been posted:
Damn, I was so ready to post that one.
(Arstechnica) Analysis: Sony continues to widen its console sales lead over Microsoft
- Thread starter Zombie James
- Start date
Damn, I was so ready to post that one.
3rdamention
Member
November 2024 could be interesting.....
Jacksinthe
Banned
Lolololololol wtf
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
This is going to be a great thread... can't not wait for those certain people to come in and defend this. This gone' git good!
lol damn2024, year of the XB1.
Until then...
At least they fixed their bar chart this time.
My fixed version:
edit - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1087329
LordOfChaos
Member
Behind as they are, I like this Microsoft. They're pushing good updates hard and fast.
I know, but sales analyses like those can't be beneficial for their image.
It does not. As the author himself states, the chart is built on a ridiculous premise. As such it can't show more than that the premise is ridiculous. Hence, it can't also be used as an argument for why Microsoft will never outsell Sony, since nobody would argue that—if that would ever happen—it would happen because the current sales trends would stay stable for almost ten years.
So why make a chart based on a ridiculous premise if you cannot argue anything (in any direction) at all with it...
hydrophilic attack
Member
Hahaha, on occasion I've considered making a joke post where I extrapolate a one-time sales increase ten years into the future to make the losing console out to be the winner. The obvious joke here would be that that would be such a stupid thing to do that no one would be able to do it with a straight face.
Then I read this article.
Then I read this article.
PuppetMaster
Member
So many things to laugh at here in these graphs. Like how his y axis starts from -5
Almost as though that's what I said...
The Mad Draklor
Member
I can't believe this article is even published 
This is one of the best gifs I have seen in the last times.
3rdamention
Member
Mass_Pincup
Banned
I mean it's not only misunderstanding the console industry growth, it's just misunderstanding basic maths and causality. I truly can't believe that people are being payed for this shit.
The sentence immediately after those you quoted argues why it is not what you said.
Most of the posters are taking the graphs the wrong way.
The whole point is to show that even though the XB had a greater YoY % growth, it will effectively never be enough to close the gap in the best case scenario (where both consoles keep the same growth for the next 10 years).
The problem is everyone here is going "they are trying to proves XB1 will close the gap" when that is the opposite point of the article. It is not actually saying these are their actual future sales predictions.
The whole point is to show that even though the XB had a greater YoY % growth, it will effectively never be enough to close the gap in the best case scenario (where both consoles keep the same growth for the next 10 years).
The problem is everyone here is going "they are trying to proves XB1 will close the gap" when that is the opposite point of the article. It is not actually saying these are their actual future sales predictions.
Wuthering_Heights
Banned
Good thing Microsoft doesn't care about console sales.
All about those Live subs, now.
All about those Live subs, now.
No, you (and the article) said the ridiculous premise helps show something about real-life projections.
It does nothing of the sort.
I'm not taking it that way at all. The graph does not make the point that it's trying to make, because it's built on a ridiculous counterfactual -- projections should not be made based on percentage changes, and the best case scenario is most CERTAINLY not one where the percentage changes YoY are kept constant.
It simply does not work as intended. It's a data strawman. Well, not data. Quite literally *ONE* data point!
Need a Polygon pie chart showing number of Live subs in conjunction with PS+ subs.
Hey guys, remember when teachers told you math was important?
I bet this ars writer didn't write his first draft of this article in cursive.
I bet this ars writer didn't write his first draft of this article in cursive.
If the XBOX ONE can do so well by just changing historical sales trajectories imagine what it could do if causality didn't exist.
Infinite calculation power and no latency for online games. Furthermore games would cost nothing to produce since they were already made in the future.
Infinite calculation power and no latency for online games. Furthermore games would cost nothing to produce since they were already made in the future.
?
Not really.
The claim is that even given the absurd premise, MS would take until 2024 to outsell the PS4.
This is a perfectly reasonable argument.
With such a brilliant analytical method, why would the writer of that article stop so soon?
We can extrapolate further into the future, confident that the growth rate will remain stable for decades to come:
In the year 2525, if console war is still alive
If casual gaming is still alive, we may find....
SomedayTheFire
Member
I get the point of the article in that Xbox doesn't have a hope of catching the PS4 but man they're some misleading graphs. As shown by the replies to this thread.
julzillamilitia
Banned
We have found Kyle Orlands Gaf account
maquiladora
Member
With such a brilliant analytical method, why would the writer of that article stop so soon?
We can extrapolate further into the future, confident that the growth rate will remain stable for decades to come:
the rock clapping gif
EventHorizon
Member
The XB1 had a horrible launch, was saddled with a peripheral few wanted, and was priced too high. It's improved sales was because it dug itself out of the hole it created, not because it climbed a mountain. Projecting that out 10 years is like saying I'm going to be perpetually high because I stopped hitting myself in the head with a hammer.
SomedayTheFire
Member
That's the point of the article.
Holy shit, no.
No, no, no. An absurd premise does not make an argument valid, unless the counterfactual actually represents a best case scenario. It doesn't.
The premise isn't absurd because it overestimates Xbox sales, it's absurd full-stop.
D
Deleted member 80556
Unconfirmed Member
This industry makes people crazy, I swear. Aren't people being taught not to use such premises in statistics? Are people not being told not to write articles on absurd premises? Are professional websites not ran by editors?!
What is the definitive music I should be listening to accompany this? I am old and still think nero is current.
With such a brilliant analytical method, why would the writer of that article stop so soon?
We can extrapolate further into the future, confident that the growth rate will remain stable for decades to come:
All this one needs is to jump a few numbers on the X scale like some other graphs we have seen. All of a sudden its 2047!
PdotMichael
Banned
If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys
There is not enough money to make in the business to justify professionals in all areas.
What?
Lol, okay.
The argument is supposed to be that even if you implausibly believe that the Xbox will continue its current sales increases, it would still take way longer than the lifetime of the product for it to outsell PS4.
That's a perfectly coherent point even if you're incapable of understanding it.
I think some of you saw a graph where Xbox outsold PS4 and your brains switched off with rage.
vpance
Member
"Studies show the alarming increase in gaming console production may end the world in 2050 due to lack of space and severe drain on the earth's resources"