The U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 5%

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FriedConsole said:
I thought millennials can't find jobs? Which is it?
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Keep in mind that the unemployment rate counts JDs working at starbucks 20 hours a week because they can't find a real job as employed. Its an incredibly misleading statistic and does not reflect how truly horrid the job market is.
 
Juice said:
"Man just think how much stronger employment would be with a Republican in the White House instead of a tax and spend communist liberal"

I wish facts changed people's minds.
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Jobs are going up more or less everywhere though, no? I mean, here's the UK's equivalent graph:

lms-july-14-gif.gif


And the UK's been conducting some pretty significant cuts since 2010.

Or, to put it another way, I don't think this single bit of data is actually useful on its own to ascertain the correct response.
 
Calamari41 said:
The funniest part of news items like this is that you just know that if we were in President McCain's second term with identical numbers, many of the "Based Emperor Obama" people would be posting "well this is actually quite worrying if you look at this and this and that", and the current "well this is actually quite worrying, Obama is still a screwup" people would be posting about "Based Emperor McCain"



Right, but we're trying to explain what's happening to labor participation rate over the short term past.
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But then again, this wouldn't happen in McCain's second term because he wouldn't have identical numbers, because he wouldn't govern the economy in the same way.
 
Good to know that the unemployment rate is so low, which means that wages will start increasing dramatically because business will start fighting for skilled labor. It also means that qualifications needed for equivalent positions will go down because everyone who wants a job can get one, so no more stories about entry level job requiring 4 years of experience.

At least the interest rates will start hiking so we can all start saving our money in the bank.
 
Calamari41 said:
Of course it's a pure hypothetical, but it doesn't change the observation about partisan cheerleading.
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Actually it completely does, because this means you can no longer construct made up hypothetical examples to prove your point and instead have to rely on evidence. Of course when we reference actual events where liberals opposed things Obama has done (e.g. his early stance against gay marriage) liberals were willing to criticize their own. Look at the TPP thread and how many liberals are bashing on Obama. Now look at the fox news comments section about anything, like say, Ben Carson fucking lying about west point.

Sorry, but this conservative "everything's equal and both sides do it!" bullshit talking point is just that. Bullshit.
 
Wage growth 2.5%
Every measure of UE declines including headline number
270k in October alone

People still complain and nitpick. Let me blow your minds for a second here, BEFORE the recession there were countless economists that had done analysis on the labor force participation and all agreed it would go down by this amount in a normal economy. Here's a graph of the projection in a 2006 Brookings paper.

xQumGuP.png

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/spring-2006/2006a_bpea_aaronson.pdf

Stop letting the bullshit narratives fool you and just look at the basic facts. This was going to happen no matter what and everyone said it would a decade ago, before any great recession.
 
Earthstrike said:
Actually it completely does, because this means you can no longer construct made up hypothetical examples to prove your point and instead have to rely on evidence. Of course when we reference actual events where liberals opposed things Obama has done (e.g. his early stance against gay marriage) liberals were willing to criticize their own. Look at the TPP thread and how many liberals are bashing on Obama. Now look at the fox news comments section about anything, like say, Ben Carson fucking lying about west point.

Sorry, but this conservative "everything's equal and both sides do it!" bullshit talking point is just that. Bullshit.
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You're vastly overreacting to what I said as far as my intentions were when I posted it. I'm sorry that you took it the wrong way.
 
These threads, I swear.

This is good news, but I don't think this will compell the feds to increase rates considering how growth has slowed around the world.
 
Hollywood Duo said:
While it is an improvement. It's not actually 5%.
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Here's U3, the official unemployment rate:

YmX7W3X.gif


Here's U6, the most underemploymenty metric there is:

tUtDME8.gif


Notice that they're almost identical, just shifted vertically. Current underemployment rate is very healthy.
 
Makai said:
Here's U3, the official unemployment rate:

latest_numbers_LNS14000000_2005_2015_all_period_M10_data.gif


Here's U6, the most underemploymenty metric there is:

LNS13327709_213193_1446837154574.gif


Notice that they're almost identical, just shifted vertically. Current underemployment rate is very healthy.
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This is succinct and clear a response to that oft-repeated complaint that I have seen.
 
Team Alucard said:
Keep in mind that the unemployment rate counts JDs working at starbucks 20 hours a week because they can't find a real job as employed. Its an incredibly misleading statistic and does not reflect how truly horrid the job market is.
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Underemployment doesn't, though, and as you can see from above, it is dropping rapidly as well.
 
Wage growth 2.5%
Every measure of UE declines including headline number
270k in October alone

People still complain and nitpick. Let me blow your minds for a second here, BEFORE the recession there were countless economists that had done analysis on the labor force participation and all agreed it would go down by this amount in a normal economy. Here's a graph of the projection in a 2006 Brookings paper.

xQumGuP.png

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/projects/bpea/spring-2006/2006a_bpea_aaronson.pdf

Stop letting the bullshit narratives fool you and just look at the basic facts. This was going to happen no matter what and everyone said it would a decade ago, before any great recession.
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Yes, wage growth hit the highest level since the recession. There's no way to spin it. The US labor market is very healthy right now.
 
The economy is looking pretty good. We'll just have to hope that Europe and China don't manage to contaminate the world economy, and this should continue for a while.

Domestically, if there aren't aren't any bubbles being created right now the economy should do well for a while. Student debt might be one, but that wouldn't be as bad as 2008 if that bubble burst. Stock market is only slightly higher than the long run ratio with corporate profits last I checked. House prices are right on the historical average in relation to income. The high government debt is a little concerning, but not an immediate concern. I think running a primary surplus (before interest payments) at some point soon would allay all concerns on that front.
 
Makai said:
I was curious, so I extended the U6 underemployment timeline.

LNS13327709_172695_1446839234590.gif


It's the 90s again!
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Yeah, if your friends have college degrees and are working 20 hours a week at Starbucks (as the argument goes), they may have to actually do what their parents and grandparents and great-grandparents did and, you know, move.
 
Was really needed after the last two months were disappointing. If it continues like this, and the gains aren't too top heavy, there'd be nothing to complain about.
 
As I asked in the poligaf thread, what is the ETA for the job creators finally going Galt thanks to Obama's job killing policies?
 
Calamari41 said:
http://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_2005_2015_all_period_M10_data.gif[/IMG]

So it's not just people being Negative Nellies, it's just what's been happening. And it is worrying.
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Five Thirty Eight did a good article on this. Its mostly people retiring early and kids that are in college focusing more on full-time.
 
Underemployment negates those figures, we are NOT at full employment (which classically is 5%), got a long ways to go still.
 
zero shift said:
Five Thirty Eight did a good article on this. Its mostly people retiring early and kids that are in college focusing more on full-time.
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I've addressed this twice already, but I'll point out again that according to the census department and the BLS, surprisingly, it appears as though the labor participation rate of baby boomers has been increasing, and college enrollment has gone down over the short term past. It's appears to be more complicated than that.
 
We really can't ignore the dismal state of participation in the workforce, though. It just doesn't seem like something to crow about when so many people have given up.

sorry I'm just bitter hahaha
 
Terry Travis said:
Underemployment negates those figures, we are NOT at full employment (which classically is 5%), got a long ways to go still.
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Underemployment is down to pre-recession levels too so not sure what your getting at. The labor participation rate though is interesting. An aging population should drop it but the number of those baby boomers continuing to work is increasing. Guess I would need to see if the numbers of baby boomers increasingly working is enough to offset the rise in baby boomers total.
 
Calamari41 said:
I've addressed this twice already, but I'll point out again that according to the census department and the BLS, surprisingly, it appears as though the labor participation rate of baby boomers has been increasing, and college enrollment has gone down over the short term past. It's appears to be more complicated than that.
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Labor participation is definitely a complicated issue. There's a lot of moving parts in our country. I really suggest if you haven't that you read through Labor Force Participation Report pdf released by the white house last year. Lots of tantalizing data and analysis.

For instance, yes, the older crowd has definitely seen their labor participation rise over the past 20 years (and will probably continue to do so).
2paHXKO.png


but there doesn't seem to be a big correlation between a downturn in college enrollment and labor participation.

ovFkKv9.png
 
dabig2 said:
Labor participation is definitely a complicated issue. There's a lot of moving parts in our country. I really suggest if you haven't that you read through Labor Force Participation Report pdf released by the white house last year. Lots of tantalizing data and analysis.

For instance, yes, the older crowd has definitely seen their labor participation rise over the past 20 years (and will probably continue to do so).

but there doesn't seem to be a big correlation between a downturn in college enrollment and labor participation.
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Thanks for the link. I'm out and about right now but I'll make sure to check it out later.

One more factor to consider, which would definitely affect the stats, is immigration. I'm pretty sure immigration fell for a while after the recession, which would normally cause the participation rate to increase. I think immigration numbers are heading back up now, which could be helping to keep the rate down right now as other factors may have corrected.
 
Calamari41 said:
Thanks for the link. I'm out and about right now but I'll make sure to check it out later.

One more factor to consider, which would definitely affect the stats, is immigration. I'm pretty sure immigration fell for a while after the recession, which would normally cause the participation rate to increase. I think immigration numbers are heading back up now, which could be helping to keep the rate down right now as other factors may have corrected.
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Yep, the report mentions this too near the end as probably the most significant policy change to help the labor participation rate.
Probably the most significant policy response to falling labor force participation rates is immigration reform, which would counteract the labor force effects of an aging population and spur economic growth. On average, immigrants are younger and participate in the labor force at higher rates than native-born Americans. The Congressional Budget Office(2013) estimates that the immigration reform bill passed by the Senate would increase the labor force by 6 million people, or five percent, by 2023, and raise the labor force participation rate by 0.7 percentage point. This trend would continue over time, providing a range of other economic benefits such as increasing GDP, lowering budget deficits, and improving Social Security solvency.
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But honestly, this country is going to need to have a serious discussion about the entire economic infrastructure of the country in the coming decades, especially when it comes to increased automation and job polarization in general. The whole concept of "live to work" will need to be thoroughly challenged.
 
dabig2 said:
Yep, the report mentions this too near the end as probably the most significant policy change to help the labor participation rate.


But honestly, this country is going to need to have a serious discussion about the entire economic infrastructure of the country in the coming decades, especially when it comes to increased automation and job polarization in general. The whole concept of "live to work" will need to be thoroughly challenged.
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The slave drivers will ensure that nothing changes.
 
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