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[allan-bh]

There's zero indication that the XB1 is doing that well in Canada. Absolutely none.

And once again, the important bit is that this would mean that the XB1 is selling as well as the PS4 (in terms of raw numbers) in the countries for which we have no solid data. And since it launched much later in these countries, it actually means that it's selling much faster. And we have software charts for some of these and XB1 titles are clearly getting seriously outsold.

I don't follow...

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There's also zero indication that isn't doing well , we don't have any number about canadian sales in this generation.

I'm simply using the logic from the past, Canada isn't much different of US market, so based on what you believe Canada isn't folowing US sales this time? Price pattern since launch actually is more favourable for XBO than in US.

 

[spatenfloot]

I don't follow...

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There's also zero indication that isn't doing well , we don't have any number about canadian sales in this generation.

I'm simply using the logic from the past, Canada isn't much different of US market, so based on what you believe Canada isn't folowing US sales this time? Price pattern since launch actually is more favourable for XBO than in US.

Amazon.ca 2015 best sellers list has the PS4 UC bundle at #28. First Xbox is gears at #64. That seems like an indication to me.
If you are claiming that Canada is similar to US, then that is an excellent indicator of the general market.

 

[Raist]

I don't follow...

------------------------------------

There's also zero indication that isn't doing well , we don't have any number about canadian sales in this generation.

I'm simply using the logic from the past, Canada isn't much different of US market, so based on what you believe Canada isn't folowing US sales this time? Price pattern since launch actually is more favourable for XBO than in US.

Yes, it is. The 360S3 ratio was nowhere near the one in the US, for a start.

As for not following, go back to my previous post, based on numbers we have and reasonable (or even generous) estimates for the XB1, by deduction it would indicate that it's selling better than the PS4 in the countries we have no numbers for, dpesite launching much later in most of them.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Ultimately though I doubt you are trying to infer that Sony releasing PR saying theyve sold through 35.9million is made up even if we have some difficulty resolving that. The flip side with MS is we just have nothing to cross-check against and what information we do have is very piecemeal...

ps3ud0 8)

No of course I don't say that, Sony's PR is very clear on that front. Especially compared to MS's PR.

 

[allan-bh]

Amazon.ca 2015 best sellers list has the PS4 UC bundle at #28. First Xbox is gears at #64. That seems like an indication to me.
If you are claiming that Canada is similar to US, then that is an excellent indicator of the general market.

Amazon.ca, the same place were Ouya was killing in sales...

I already saw many canadians here saying that amazon.ca is not popular there, prices aren't good and people doesn't like.

Yes, it is. The 360S3 ratio was nowhere near the one in the US, for a start.

I would like to see your NPD data for Canada.

 

[spatenfloot]

Amazon.ca, the same place were Ouya was killing in sales...

I already saw many canadians here saying that amazon.ca is not popular there, prices aren't good and people doesn't like.

The Ouya is nowhere on that list and it is more evidence than you have provided.
Tales from your ass is not a basis for argument.

 

[allan-bh]

The Ouya is nowhere on that list and it is more evidence than you have provided.
Tales from your ass is not a basis for argument.

Ouya, the best selling of 2014.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=143284837&postcount=47

 

[spatenfloot]

I said 2015.

 

[allan-bh]

I said 2015.

I said amazon.ca is not a good source.

 

[eerik9000]

When Sony announced +30M on nov 22 last year, I read PS4 was available over 124 countries which means there are several official markets people don't really have a choice, it's playstation for years (unless importing, grey market).

What do you mean? I live in a country that does not exist for Sony nor Microsoft, but both their current gen consoles have been widely available since their official European launch days. Retailers import their stock from other countries without any problems and the sales are accounted for those countries. If I remember correctly, the launch units for PS4 came from either UK or Germany. Prices are roughly the same as they are elsewhere. E.g. I could get a PS4 for €320 from an online retailer with free 2-4 day delivery, or €360 from a big electronics retail chain with stores nationwide. I assume it's the same for most other small countries where the consoles aren't "officially" released.

 

[spatenfloot]

I said amazon.ca is not a good source.

You've said Canada is just like U.S. also, but haven't shown any evidence of it.

 

[onQ123]

Xbox One is successful & it's not doing bad, Sony & Microsoft are the only ones that have found success with the high end multimedia consoles, things have changed a lot since the days of 3DO & CDi trying to pull this off & failing to now where multimedia is just as important as the graphics capabilities of the consoles.

I think Sony just read the market better than MS & Nintendo. MS & Nintendo looked at the tablet takeover & said "can't beat'em join them" & Sony said "I'm getting the hell out of the way at least they can't match us in graphics" . Also I think Amazon is becoming Sony & MS biggest threat in the multimedia console space so staying on the high end is the safe route for PlayStation & Xbox.

 

[Raist]

I would like to see your NPD data for Canada.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=349316

1.6 ratio in favour of the 360 as of the end of 2008 (37 vs 25 months on the market).

Also note this in that thread:

LTDs:
Canada: 10.95% of US population
DS: 8.15% of US sales
Wii: 4.79% of US sales
360: 8.51% of US sales
PSP: 6.39% of US sales
PS3: 10.67% of US sales

In the US the ratio was still over 2:1 at that point.

 

[allan-bh]

You've said Canada is just like U.S. also, but haven't shown any evidence of it.

Evidence is the past, we used to had NPD sales from Canada.

 

[allan-bh]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=349316

1.6 ratio in favour of the 360 as of the end of 2008 (37 vs 25 months on the market).

Also note this in that thread:



In the US the ratio was still over 2:1 at that point.

8.51% of US sales for 360, close to my "old 10% rule". 11 million for XBO in US means more than 900k in Canada if the ratio is similar.

Plus, look at this post on the same thread:

that is because the 360 initially did not match the exchange rate while the PS3 did.

in US dollars, the 360 were like 100US more in Canada while the PS3 was on par with the US prices.

things have changed though at the end of 2008, MS has finally started ajusting their prices of their SKUs

I not remembered of this, should explain at least in part the ratio diff.

 

[RealityPales]

Great numbers for XB1. They really managed to turn it around after the rocky start. Best OS updates in the industry. Competition is a good thing.

EDIT: This is for US only, right?

Must be TimDog. Must be.

 

[Welfare]

I just checked and you are right...

13
26

39 countries in total.

That makes the over 18m even more hard to believe.

Actually Tier 2 was bumped from the initial 26 countries to 29, and Argentina was the last country in December 2014, so 42 countries.

 

[allan-bh]

Actually Tier 2 was bumped from the initial 26 countries to 29, and Argentina was the last country in December 2014, so 42 countries.

Microsoft should work on that, they need to increase the global appeal of Xbox brand.

 

[Raist]

8.51% of US sales for 360, close to my "old 10% rule"

11 million for XBO in US means more than 900k in Canada if the ratio is similar.

Yeah... "if the ratio is similar"...

Look, I've given lots of data, so if you're willing to ignore everything but potential sales in Canada based on the crazy assumption that it's performing as well as the 360 I don't think this is gonna go anywhere.

 

[etta]

Haha at dat Ouya.
So Amazon Canada top sellers is pretty useless?

 

[allan-bh]

Yeah... "if the ratio is similar"...

Look, I've given lots of data, so if you're willing to ignore everything but potential sales in Canada based on the crazy assumption that it's performing as well as the 360 I don't think this is gonna go anywhere.

Xbox One is doing better than 360 in USA, what's the problem with the same thing going in Canada?

Your data just reinforce my idea about Xbox One sales in Canada. Around 1 million makes perfect sense.

 

[Yurikerr]

Xbox One is doing better than 360 in USA, what's the problem with the same thing going in Canada?

Your data just reinforce my idea about Xbox One sales in Canada. Around 1 million makes perfect sense.

I'm not really disagreeing with you, but I don't know if we can say it with so much confidence. As the single most important variable (the market leader) is different.

Is the US:UK ratio this gen similar to the last gen (X360/PS3)?

Having only one gen numbers can be very misleading as we have a lot of different factors this gen (same launch period, similar price, reversed mindshare).

With the ps4 leading sales i can see the XB1 % decresing as people choose the most popular system.

 

[Mahonay]

Is the US:UK ratio this gen similar to the X360/PS3?

Having only one gen numbers can be very misleading as we have a lot of different factors this gen (same launch period, similar price, reversed mindshare).

With the ps4 leading sales i can see the XB1 % decresing as people choose the most popular system.

The PS4 is still ahead in the US/UK as far as I last knew.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Cloud messaging is still not clear, and no product has even been released that shows any tangible or notable performance benefit from its usage, despite being more than two years since the console released. Crackdown will pretty much be the first major and proper example.

I don't think even Microsoft is particularly clear on its performance benefits, at least from a messaging perspective, since they've advertised Cloud making the Xbox One 4x, 6-13x, and even 20x more powerful. The number seems to change all the time. Perhaps they just pull one out of a hat?

Hell, even the performance difference between the Xbox One and 360 seemed to constantly change in Microsoft's messaging.

Xbox One is 8x...no, 10x/40x w/cloud...wait, its 3x more power than the 360! Maybe?

I love how people attacked the messenger and not the one delivering the "messages", lol.

 

[UpUpDownDown]

Good to see the console ecosystem stronger then ever.

Kudos to MS.

 

[Yurikerr]

The PS4 is still ahead in the US/UK as far as I last knew.

Sure, i'm not talking about ps4 being the market leader.

I'm discussing how not being the most popular console can change the sales % of the XB1 in comparison to the X360 numbers from last gen.

A example (using some hypothetical numbers) last gen the sales in UK were equivalent to 30% of the US ones. Now this gen the UK sales are 20%.

 

[Welfare]

Sure, i'm not talking about ps4 being the market leader.

I'm discussing how not being the most popular console can change the sales % of the XB1 in comparison to the X360 numbers from last gen.

A example (using some hypothetical numbers) last gen the sales in UK were equivalent to 30% of the US ones. Now this gen the UK sales are 20%.

Actually the US:UK ratio last gen was ~20%

>42m:>9m

 

[Raist]

Xbox One is doing better than 360 in USA, what's the problem with the same thing going in Canada?

Your data just reinforce my idea about Xbox One sales in Canada. Around 1 million makes perfect sense.

Probably around 11M sold in 26 months vs 10M in 30 months that's not exactly a huge improvement. I mean that's an average of 423k vs 333k per month.

But if from this you expect the XB1 to be at 1M in 26 months in Canada already, while it took 38 months for the 360 to reach 1.2M, sure, why not.
That would still mean that the XB1 is selling at insane rates (compared to the PS4) in the remaining countries.

 

[Yurikerr]

Actually the US:UK ratio last gen was ~20%

>42m:>9m

Thanks! I could not find the latest numbers.

What is this gen estimated ratio?

 

[Mahonay]

Sure, i'm not talking about ps4 being the market leader.

I'm discussing how not being the most popular console can change the sales % of the XB1 in comparison to the X360 numbers from last gen.

A example (using some hypothetical numbers) last gen the sales in UK were equivalent to 30% of the US ones. Now this gen the UK sales are 20%.

I get what you're saying now. With the Playstation 4's popularity steadily increasing it could make it the defacto console for a lot of new current gen owners go with (as it already is worldwide). The Xbox name just becomes less potent and there's less potential Xbox One sales.

I just want to see the damn NPD numbers for last month. Hopefully Microsoft killed it like it seems Sony very likely did, continuing to keep things competitive in the territory.

 

[Welfare]

Probably around 11M sold in 26 months vs 10M in 30 months that's not exactly a huge improvement. I mean that's an average of 423k vs 333k per month.

But if from this you expect the XB1 to be at 1M in 26 months in Canada already, while it took 38 months for the 360 to reach 1.2M, sure, why not.
That would still mean that the XB1 is selling at insane rates (compared to the PS4) in the remaining countries.

The improvement in the US (using 11m and 10m) is an increase of 27%

And for that Canada example, that's actually only an increase of 19% (XB1 would be 38k a month, 360 32k)

Thanks! I could not find the latest numbers.

What is this gen estimated ratio?

Using 11m and 2m respectively, that would be 82:18.

 

[Raist]

Thanks! I could not find the latest numbers.

What is this gen estimated ratio?

Probably roughly the same.

The improvement in the US (using 11m and 10m) is an increase of 27%

And for that Canada example, that's actually only an increase of 19% (XB1 would be 38k a month, 360 32k)

Using 11m and 2m respectively, that would be 82:18.

More like 27 vs a bit over 22 (selectively rounding up and down on small number will end up making a big difference) but yeah whatever.
Again, that's assuming that Canada didn't go "yeah no FU MS" like most of the world.

 

[Yurikerr]

I get what you're saying now. With the Playstation 4's wide popularity steadily increasing it could make it the defacto console for a lot of new current gen owners go with (as it already is worldwide). The Xbox name just becomes less potent and there's less potential Xbox One sales.

This! Sorry for the confusion.

As english isn't my native language sometimes i have a hard time conveying more elaborated points.

Probably roughly the same.

Then i think allan-bh argument that Canada is 10% of U.S have one more indication of being accurate.

 

[BURNING SPIRIT]

It will eventually sell better than ps4 slowly but surely

 

[joecanada]

Haha at dat Ouya.
So Amazon Canada top sellers is pretty useless?

No we all have ouyas here. Lol Noone uses amazon.ca unless you just want to be lazy and buy online for fun. Everyone just price matches/ gouges here. Ask target how that worked out for them.

 

[Mahonay]

It will eventually sell better than ps4 slowly but surely

This latest batch of juniors...
Every post be like

 

[Mendax]

It will eventually sell better than ps4 slowly but surely

how, the ratio between the two is not converging

 

[allan-bh]

Probably around 11M sold in 26 months vs 10M in 30 months that's not exactly a huge improvement. I mean that's an average of 423k vs 333k per month.

But if from this you expect the XB1 to be at 1M in 26 months in Canada already, while it took 38 months for the 360 to reach 1.2M, sure, why not.
That would still mean that the XB1 is selling at insane rates (compared to the PS4) in the remaining countries.

Xbox 360 sold 9.15m in 26 months. Xbox One doing around 2 million more is a significant improvement, and wasn't alone in next gen market for 1 year and is not the market leader.

I have no problem with Canada representing more than 8% of US, is perfectly plausible and I don't agree at all that XB1 must be selling at insane rates in other countries for be at 18m.

 

[DeepEnigma]

It will eventually sell better than ps4 slowly but surely

That's the spirit. Keep the fires burning!

 

[Zombie James]

It will eventually sell better than ps4 slowly but surely

Do you work for Arstechnica?

 

[bitbydeath]

If Xbox were to make it to 11m in the US with Dec that would mean to reach 18m they'd need another 7m from the rest of the world....

Seems very unlikely, RotW would be 5m tops IMO

 

[etta]

No we all have ouyas here. Lol Noone uses amazon.ca unless you just want to be lazy and buy online for fun. Everyone just price matches/ gouges here. Ask target how that worked out for them.

Yea, maybe not for hardware, but everyone is going to use Amazon.ca now with $84.99 games.
Unless maybe Best buy does 35% off or maybe even 40%.

 

[Hoje0308]

EviLore is a shower creep that was a grabby creep that was a revenge porn creep. What a creep

 

[onQ123]

Do you work for Arstechnica?

Tell me that's not real? lol

PS4 has already beat their projections for 2020.

 

[Raist]

I have no problem with Canada representing more than 8% of US, is perfectly plausible and I don't agree at all that XB1 must be selling at insane rates in other countries for be at 18m.

Considering it launched almost a year later in these countries, and is available in 3.5 times less countries than the PS4 once the one we discussed are excluded, yeah it must have.

 

[N.Domixis]

Xbox 360 sold 9.15m in 26 months. Xbox One doing around 2 million more is a significant improvement, and wasn't alone in next gen market for 1 year and is not the market leader.

I have no problem with Canada representing more than 8% of US, is perfectly plausible and I don't agree at all that XB1 must be selling at insane rates in other countries for be at 18m.

The xbox 360 wasnt that popular in the beginning, it was only a few years later when it exploded. So it will fall behind the 360 especially now that ps4 is taking half its market share in USA. Then I expect the ps4 to fall behind the ps2 soon too.

 

[Mahonay]

Tell me that's not real? lol

PS4 has already beat their projections for 2020.

There was a huge thread that spawned off that last year. It's real and it's hilarious.

 

[Ehker]

Tell me that's not real? lol

PS4 has already beat their projections for 2020.

Crazy, huh? That graph is from this article:
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/

 

[etta]

Errr, that graph is based on one factor: "based on current annual % increase" and
"Fig. 7: At current rates of increase, annual Xbox One sales wouldn't catch the PS4 until 2024."

This is the LTD one:

No need to jump on Ars Technica.

 

[jesu]

how, the ratio between the two is not converging

Kinect 3.0 in 2024.