tattooed_dwarf
Member
15 million missing but it's hard to believe MS missing 3-5 million? (see Welfare's post)
Xbox One at 18 million (activated units)
- Thread starter Sweep14
- Start date
If he said there will definitely be a next xbox then people will jump to conclusions that they're pulling an original xbox short life span deal again. Even if they are working on the next xbox, you don't come out and say that when this gen is only just getting started.
I googled Phil Spencer Next gen and all I saw was a comment on twitter by him that read "I fully expect there will be." in response to if there will be a next gen.
I did the same with Shu Yoshida and found this from October 2015
Whens the PlayStation 5 coming out?
PS5 doesnt exist so theres no future PS5 to talk about.
Reading those at face value gives me more confidence than an xbox two than a PS5.. but we all know a PS5 will happen.
Why would there not be a next gen xbox? the xbox division as a whole is profitable as per Phil Spencer on an IGN interview last year for one which is the most important thing, it might not be bringing in billions like other MS divisions but it's bringing in some $ and getting kids into their win10 ecosystem. As long as it's profitable there's no reason to shut it down when it has a ton of non financial advantages.
Their movement to PC gaming isn't going to kill any plans for a next xbox, for one they don't even know if it will take off in the first place and second they won't be able to charge for multiplayer and will make less of accessories. To me there is no reason at all to believe there won't be a next gen xbox.
Maybe because it just doesn't sell in the place we have no data? Anecdotal but there was a retailer doing this weekend promotions over here (Portugal) where anything you spend in toys and videogames would be refunded in half for future buys (not in videogames sadly). I went there at the end of the campaing and they simply had no PS4 left for sale, or any other console outside of a couple of 2ds and a whole pile of Xbox ones. There were even some xbox reps trying to sell them to little to no success...
I know this is just one example that may or may not be representative of a larger picture, but it's one of the reasons why people have a hard time believing the xbox one is selling "better than expected" around the world.
Read this maybe:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191680635&postcount=724
As for the PS4, I underlined that some major markets are missing, + over 100 countries.
The issue with the XB1 is multiple unknowns, but what we do know is that the XB1 is not performing well at all except in the US, UK and to a lower extent France.
And again, since Sony releases their shipments in their FY reports, we know they shipped 29.3 through Sept 15. ~8M in Q3 2015 doesn't seem far fetched. We'll see in a couple of weeks.
I guess having shipment numbers as a cross-check at least gives some confidence
Ultimately though I doubt you are trying to infer that Sony releasing PR saying theyve sold through 35.9million is made up even if we have some difficulty resolving that. The flip side with MS is we just have nothing to cross-check against and what information we do have is very piecemeal...
ps3ud0 8)
ethomaz
Banned
MS sells in way less countries... like Sony over 100 vs MS around 40.
Edit - Fixed number of countries.
Actually what's up with that now? Can't remember anything past the Sept 2014 update, and that was 25 or so (on top of the launch 13). What are the new ones?
chromatic9
Member
I did the same with some generous estimates post December and come 10-12 million short. US at 12, UK and Germany at 3m each (probably more like 4.5/5m for UK+GER), France at 2m, Spain at 1 million. Italy at 1 million
China is suppose to be at 500k PS4/XBO combined as of Nov 2015. I read Brazil, Argentina and Mexico combined was estimated to be 600k in 2014, I guess you can double that or treble it. Even when I give generous numbers to places like Greece and Hungary I come up short.
Point is, it's very difficult to start calling out XBO numbers if you can't add up PS4's and point the finger at so called poor regions. Much of the data we get is probably wrong, even in the higher tier countries.
We just had in it in Rise of the Tomb Raider, everyone was way off even though the sales still aren't great.
XBO looks to be around 18 million and that goes with the 2-1 that we've seen. I could see it less than 18m which would be really bad but if these estimates and so called leaked numbers aren't really tracking every sale it could be up to 19-20 million.
ethomaz
Banned
I just checked and you are right...
13
26
39 countries in total.
That makes the over 18m even more hard to believe.
BTW my PS4 breakdown.
US > 12m
UK ~3m
DE ~3m
FR ~ 2m
JP ~2.3m
ES ~1m
Total ~23.5m for 6 countries.
12m for 95+ countries is not hard to believe.
You can't have a video overlay while streaming on the Bone?
spatenfloot
Member
It's easy. Sony announces 35.9 million sold...done.
If MS simply told us how many have been sold, no one would have to do mental gymnastics to figure it out. That is the whole point.
Brad Grenz
Member
Your Xbox One figures aren't as I remember them. Xbox One sold through 3.1m from launch to the end of 2013. If you take their "nearing 10m shipments" from fall 2014 as ending with something above that, say 11m, then it sold close to 8m that year. Extrapolating again using the 18m estimate in the OT sales would have dropped by 1m yoy. If you want to say there has been growth you need to assume sales in 2014 ended up below 7m. Personally I think that figure is more realistic, but the 18m figure is actually a bit high, with sales flat, or even down yoy for a total at or below 17m.
chromatic9
Member
No, you missed the point.
But I mean up until around this point most games would have been in development for a while before MS realized they lost the gen and still under Mattrick. Look at the change of tune once Phil came in with a completely different mentality.
As for new IP's Screamride and Ori and the Blind forest are probably the bigger ones already released. Over the next year ish you've got Quantum Break, Recore, Scalebound and Sea of Thieves at Retail. Digital includes Cobalt and Gigantic(?) and possible other unannounced ones. That's 6 new IP's that MS own due to be released over the next year and a bit depending on when Scalebound released. Most of them having potential to be turned into franchises alongside Halo, Gears, Forza, Fable.
Since Phil took over they've also wanted to own the IP's and they've focused a lot more on new IP's than usual, nearly everything he's done or said to me feels like he's trying to build up the xbox gaming brand for the future whereas mattrick was just coasting along each day as it comes. Phil has said in the past that the xbox probably won't catch up to PS4 sales, so I don't think all of this is being done in a desperate attempt to try and turn this gen around, it seems like Phil knows that ship sailed long ago.
It's in no way comparable. I mean we're talking 3 times more countries for the PS4.
And if you go back to my post, doubting the 20M sold was not just based on assuming it tanked in the countries we don't know about, it was also based on actual hard numbers that don't fit a 20M sold narrative. But whatever I guess.
That's exacly the point. If Sony didn't reveal numbers people would put PS4 much lower than 36 million.
Most of us tend to minimize sales outside of the major markets, but the fact is that combined they represent alot.
chromatic9
Member
Exactly.
I also saw a dude that stated that, because the gap was 2:1 in 2014 as well, we should stop acting like the bone did bad because it managed to keep up ( instead of realising that the bone got stomped just as bad as last year ).
In fact, i'd say that the bone still being at 2:1 is worse then last year because:
A) This was the year with the best lineup ever
B) This was the year where they made all the changes. It wasn't enough.
C) This was the year that the next gen Halo dropped
D) this was the year where Sony's studio's were still prepping the big guns.
This was Microsoft's best chance to at least close some of the gap. But they ended up the same as the year before ( relative speaking of course, 18 million behind in sales is of course huge )
Mark my words: from here on out it's only going to get worse. The PS4 will peak in 2016 and by the end of the year, Sony will be ahead by 25 million consoles at the very least.
Look, another way to look at the numbers:
~11M sold in the US.
1.2M sold in RotW in 2013. We're missing 7.8M sold in RotW for 2014/2015, vs. 9.4 in that period in the US. That puts the US share at below 55%
"Almost 10 million shipped" as of mid-November 2014. Hard to tell precisely how much they sold through 2014 in the end, but we can deduce the 2014 RotW figures this way:
10M -> 2.6M = 2.2x launch sales (vs. 2.4x for the US)
11M -> 3.6M = 3x launch sales. I have no idea how they could have managed that considering the numbers we have.
No need to go further because it would make less and less sense.
If you think 20M total, and 10M through 2014, this means 5M sold in RotW in 2015. As much as in the US? Sure.
So not matter how we look at these numbers (both shipments and sold through and in several different ways), the 20M sold figure really makes no sense.
~11M sold in the US.
1.2M sold in RotW in 2013. We're missing 7.8M sold in RotW for 2014/2015, vs. 9.4 in that period in the US. That puts the US share at below 55%
"Almost 10 million shipped" as of mid-November 2014. Hard to tell precisely how much they sold through 2014 in the end, but we can deduce the 2014 RotW figures this way:
10M -> 2.6M = 2.2x launch sales (vs. 2.4x for the US)
11M -> 3.6M = 3x launch sales. I have no idea how they could have managed that considering the numbers we have.
No need to go further because it would make less and less sense.
If you think 20M total, and 10M through 2014, this means 5M sold in RotW in 2015. As much as in the US? Sure.
So not matter how we look at these numbers (both shipments and sold through and in several different ways), the 20M sold figure really makes no sense.
I can't help but feel that your view on this is coloured by which platform you actually have an interest in. I don't see anyone can see the push MS is making to unify Windows and Xbox, and not see it as a long-term play (regardless of where you believe they'll take it). You don't wait to catch up (in a race you can't win) before starting to think about what comes next. That's just stupid.
As for new IP... Quantum Break, Scalebound, Recore, Sea of Thieves etc are all MS owned IP. They're not "set to go multiplatform", unless by that you mean Windows.
All MS hardware, including Xbox, is now on the same team, all of which rolls into the Windows team.
They announced their vision for the Xbox and the Windows ecosystem almost a year ago at GDC and it's primarily an effort to increase Windows consumer preference and usage. They want you to be able to play your games on any Windows 10 device you want.
Phil Spencer said:
From his "The Future of Gaming Across the Microsoft Ecosystem" session at GDC. Link - March 2015
The majority of their upcoming announced games are Win and Xbox One and Spencer is even saying they'll continue to bring those experiences to Windows. There are even tweets within the past few days from Spencer where he's defending that movement.
Satya Nadella said:
Microsoft Puts Windows and Games as the Centre of Its Strategy - June 2015
There's no way it makes sense to say they don't have a long-term goal. They're part of Windows proper now, with the Xbox team and all MS hardware in the OS group team, so essentially whatever the long-term goals are of Windows are the same for the Xbox team.
Primethius
Banned
The two consoles aren't really comparable. One has a far greater presence in the ROTW then the other, not to mention it's actually being sold in a far greater number of countries as well. If you can account for around 23-25 million just by using 6 to 7 countries, then I'm sure you can find a way to make the 36 million number make sense with the rest of the 100 or so countries.
Would we though? Don't the PS4 numbers match the ratios we've consistently gotten over the past few updates. As in, if the US makes up 35-36% of the total sales, that would give us the 36 million that they've said it sold.
The Artisan
Member
I'm a little confused, then. Because like, 360 was released a year before its competition so by default it was the most powerful console at the time. Wii U also released a year before its competition so by this logic it pretty much was also the most powerful console at the time as well, but not only did that really not help its case, but no one perceive the next gen starting until its competition hit the market. Why do you say nintendo is the only ones that didn't have this agenda? what's sony done to show they're for it as well?
as far as I know, it was $50 all throughout the 7th gen. xbl gold.
but couldn't the same be said about wii u when it launched? despite the fact that it was severely underpowered, when it launched, there was no competition (yet), so it was the best at the time.
ethomaz
Banned
That can be my opinion only but the push for Windows + Xbox started because they are not selling enought on Xbone alone to cover de investments.
Phil said that in a interview.
So it is not a long term goal but a forced move due the low profit they have with low sales.
Long term I think is more like VR for Sony... what MS have? Holollens?
And there are few new IPs from MS... most you guys are listing are not exclusive or MS's IP.
Phil said that in a interview.
So it is not a long term goal but a forced move due the low profit they have with low sales.
Long term I think is more like VR for Sony... what MS have? Holollens?
And there are few new IPs from MS... most you guys are listing are not exclusive or MS's IP.
Difference is Playstation traditionally sells well worldwide. The same can't be said about xbox as a brand.
Which ones aren't owned by MS? I wasn't sure about Gigantic which I put a (?) next to, and I've just realized Cobalt isn't developed by Mojang so I don't know who owns that, but MS/Mojang is publishing it? I always thought it was Mojang that developed it but Google brings me to Oxeye and Fatshark?
I'm assuming you mean exclusive as in windows 10..? If so.. I won't bother any more.
Right, let's say there's 10M PS4 missing. That's a very reasonable estimate.
It's available in another 100+ countries so that's less than 100k per country on average.
Now the XB1.
US 11M or so, we know that.
Let's be rather generous and say
UK 2.5
France + Germany 1.5
Spain + Italy 0.25
Japan 0.08
If you want a 20M total sales figure, that's 4.7M missing.
There's another 32 countries missing, that's ~150k per country.
So are we really to believe that the XB1 outsold the PS4 1.5:1 in these countries, where on top of that, it launched much later than the PS4 did in most cases? Really?
I mean, there's "underestimating" these countries, but I think people on the other side of the fence just have hyperbolic expectations of what they can represent in terms of sales. It only takes 2 minutes of reasoning based on available numbers to see that.
Yes but you shouldn't have to pay $100 for it. The things that people would love to use Kinect for are simple things like that but because it's over engineered the entry price to do a simple video overlay is $100.
{insert code here}
Member
How many updates are we going to get from MS about the xbone install in the next few years? Will they even bother seeing as how they've switched over to this MAU benchmark. Sales-GAF is going to get interesting over the course of this generation as we continue getting regular updates from Sony and radio silence from MS. I foresee many good times and discussions ahead.
LukasTaves
Member
That's not hard at all to understand actually.
They said that for each xbone connected to Live they would allocate about 3 times worth of xbone processing in the cloud which the game could use. Simple as that.
Obviously, that's PR speak and made so people think that when connected to the internet xbone would magically become 4 times faster, but "gaf's" (speaking generally) intentionally obtuse reaction to that claim is just as misleading.
Windows + Xbox started long before the console was released. They've been making moves to unify them since Windows 8. I'm not talking about simply having crossplay, or releasing some games on the Windows 10 store as well (although PC + Xbox in this fashion goes back even further).. I'm talking about the push for there to be a singular OS, and a streamlined development that allows the platforms to be used interchangeably. This is not something that's a reaction to PS4 or their current position because they've been talking about it long before that. They even went as far as to say that developers could get a headstart on making Xbox One apps, by making Windows 8 apps.
The IPs I listed are both exclusive, and MS' IP. I have no idea what you're talking about here... some of them may be developed by external studios, but that makes them no less MS' IP than Ratchet and Clank is for Sony.
PSVR is a long-term play for PlayStation yes... MS not meeting them head on does not equate to them not having a long-term strategy of their own... it's just not the same one. Yes HoloLens is a long-term play for them. It's a slightly different case as HoloLens is more aligned with Windows than Xbox, and doesn't require the Xbox console in any way whatsoever... but games for it will still be classed as Xbox games, it'll still use Xbox Live, etc.. because that's what Windows itself uses now... that is the long-term plan, for Xbox to be more than just the console. Sony lacking a ecosystem of their own beyond the PlayStation are taking a different approach to expand beyond the console market (PS Now).. but them not having something directly comparable to what MS offers in regards to Windows + Xbox, is not the same as them not having a long-term plan, which they're taking actions towards. They all do, even Nintendo with the NX looking to leverage their handheld market to the benefit of their console business.
David Ricardo
Member
I am saying that power is a factor when gamers make buying decisions, not that the console with 1 extra flop in it's GPU will sell like hot cakes no matter what.
PS4 and XBO are very similar consoles, they cost the same, they share 95% of their catalog, they both have good controllers, they both have good multiplatform support, they both have good enough online capabilities, they both require a subscription to play online, they both are successors to similarly succesful consoles (80 million each). They are pretty much interchangeable. But one is more powerful than the other. If you buy the most powerful One, you have the almost (cough unity cough) guaranteed best version of multiplatform games, which amount to as high as 95% of the catalog.
Given that all other factors are so similar, the power difference becomes quite relevant.
I am not saying that price, launch date, exclusives, brand awareness, you name it... don't matter. I am just saying that the performance gap is a factor.
Wii U was just Nintendo catching up to the Xbox 360 & PS3 in power but the power advantage did not show enough to make up for the game library advantage that Xbox 360 & PS3 had over it.
As for the agenda it has always been Sony & Microsoft plan to Trojan horse their store front into the living room. Kinect was perfect for this but it pissed off the gamers.
I'd give you that the Xbox One's relatively poor performance made it easy for Nadella to move forward with consolidating Xbox into Windows, but I'd also argue that Xbox games anywhere was going to happen at some point anyway.
If you take a look at the leaked Road to Fortaleza doc in 2012 they intended to let you access your games from anywhere by 2015, but back then it was all based on the assumption that cloud rendering would be realized by now. The point is the intention was the same. They were clearly looking beyond just the console and just the living room years ago.
I feel like you're having difficulty grasping the fact that Xbox isn't its own business any more. Long term for Xbox is what happens with Windows and the devices it's put on plus the Live service (Azure). It's not like PlayStation where it was made its own pillar, where growing the business of interactive entertainment for Sony is the goal and everything within that division is to support growth and profitability in the name of that goal. Nadella consolidated Xbox, as well as all MS hardware, into the OS group with the goal to drive Windows adoption and usage. He's explicitly stated just that, and it's not hard to understand his motivation. Back in mid 2014, in his first memo to the company, he acknowledged that gaming was the largest category in time spent and revenue in the mobile world and he thought that Xbox games and Xbox Live afforded them a unique opportunity in his vision of people moving across screens. It's really not that big a jump from those points to why the Xbox team is now being measured on MAUs and why they are using revenue and time spent as their metrics in earnings and PR. Those are what's important to their CEO to measure the success of how Xbox contributes to Windows.
All that said, if you want to get an idea where Xbox is going I think all you have to do is get in tune with what the Windows team is thinking.
Yeah and remember that there was no shortage of XB1 consoles in tier 2 countries either because they were imported from countries like Germany for a long time.
So Germany got sales from other countries basically making it even more hard to believe that XB1 would have sold an average 150k in rest of the countries that was not tier 1.
I don't want 20 million, I think around 18m makes sense.
Yes, but we don't have regular updates in Xbox One case. The only ratio we know for sure was at the end of 2013, 3 million in 13 countries with 1.8m in US (60%).
Now we supposedly have ~18 million in 42 countries with likely 11 million+ in US.
Silent Chief
Member
They represent a lot for Sony and a lot less for Microsoft.
Here in Canada, I have no numbers at all, but on Amazon.ca the PS4 is totally crushing the Xbone. Last generation, all the kids had 360s and were playing Halo.
I played Destiny for a couple of months and most of the local guys I played with had 360s last gen.
Primethius
Banned
Oh, I agree with the 18 million number. That's what I would peg it at personally. I was under the mistaken assumption that we were talking about 20 million. My apologies.
Silent Chief
Member
It's impossible to project, but countries added late likely have lower monthly numbers and a smaller number of months.
Considering US I doubt situation in Canada is much different, PS4 must have a small lead, possibly even lower than in US because if I'm not wrong Sony increased PS4 price at one moment and current MSRP still favours Xbox One.
They increased the price by $10 mid gen (2010) to $60
Quite frankly? That'd be 2.7M missing, so sales almost on par with the PS4. I don't buy it.
2.7m missing from what?
In hte post you quoted I said there would be 4.7M sales missing (form numbers we know and generous estimates) if we assume 20M sold through. So it'd b 2.7 if you assume 18M.
I don't think is a lot. If we use the old rule of Canada being 10% of US sales, this alone close the gap to 1.7m.
There's zero indication that the XB1 is doing that well in Canada. Absolutely none.
And once again, the important bit is that this would mean that the XB1 is selling as well as the PS4 (in terms of raw numbers) in the countries for which we have no solid data. And since it launched much later in these countries, it actually means that it's selling much faster. And we have software charts for some of these and XB1 titles are clearly getting seriously outsold.
rakkadakka
Member
VR isn't such an exclusive tech that MS couldn't figure out a solution for their next console if the market is asking for it.
Just in regards to who comes out the gate next gen..I think MS has a lot of incentive to be first to market with a powerful device at a decent price if they want to take back some market share.
mejin
Member
When Sony announced +30M on nov 22 last year, I read PS4 was available over 124 countries which means there are several official markets people don't really have a choice, it's playstation for years (unless importing, grey market). It's 3x more than XB1, no?
Anyway, Xbox brand is nowhere near the same league with Playstation in this regard: wordwide appeal.
We can say USA + UK is what? 70? 75% of XB1 LTD?
Anyway, Xbox brand is nowhere near the same league with Playstation in this regard: wordwide appeal.
We can say USA + UK is what? 70? 75% of XB1 LTD?
spatenfloot
Member
70% is probably a good estimate.